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2024 Week 14 · Thu, Dec 5, 2024 · Ford Field

Green Bay Packers

31

Detroit LionsWinner

34

DET -3 pushO 53 ✓Dome

Detroit Lions 34–31 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 6:32, DET +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3DET ↑GB ↓
Q4 · 6:32GB 28 — DET 31GB ball · 2nd & 10DET 61%

(6:32) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 13-D.Wicks to DET 19 for 26 yards (31-K.Joseph). DET-32-B.Branch was injured during the play.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 6:32DET +15% win prob(6:32) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 13-D.Wicks to DET 19 for 26 yards (31-K.Joseph). DET-32-B.Branch was injured during the play.
  2. Q4 · 7:57DET +14% win prob(7:57) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 9-C.Watson pushed ob at DET 45 for 29 yards (0-T.Arnold) [46-J.Campbell].
  3. Q3 · 1:29GB +14% win prob(1:29) 26-J.Gibbs right end to DET 30 for -1 yards (7-Q.Walker, 58-I.McDuffie).
  4. Q4 · 1:42DET +13% win prob(1:42) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 14-A.St. Brown to GB 20 for 17 yards (25-K.Nixon). The Replay Official reviewed the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 14-A.St. Brown to GB 21 for 16 yards (25-K.Nixon).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 9:44DET Touchdown

    (9:44) 5-D.Montgomery right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 0 — DET 7
  2. Q2 · 13:05DET Field goal

    (13:05) 39-J.Bates 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

    Score after this play: GB 0 — DET 10
  3. Q2 · 5:38GB Touchdown

    (5:38) 8-J.Jacobs left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 7 — DET 10
  4. Q2 · 0:14DET Touchdown

    (:14) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 26-J.Gibbs for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN [52-R.Gary]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 7 — DET 17
  5. Q3 · 13:20GB Touchdown

    (13:20) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 85-T.Kraft for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 14 — DET 17
  6. Q3 · 11:21GB Touchdown

    (11:21) (No Huddle) 8-J.Jacobs left tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 21 — DET 17
  7. Q3 · 5:05DET Touchdown

    (5:05) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 17-T.Patrick for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 21 — DET 24
  8. Q4 · 14:24GB Touchdown

    (14:24) 8-J.Jacobs up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 28 — DET 24
  9. Q4 · 8:43DET Touchdown

    (8:43) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 17-T.Patrick for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 28 — DET 31
  10. Q4 · 3:42GB Field goal

    (3:42) 17-B.McManus 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

    Score after this play: GB 31 — DET 31
  11. Q4 · 0:02DET Field goal

    (:02) 39-J.Bates 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. ** Injury Update: GB-25-K.Nixon has returned to the game.

    Score after this play: GB 31 — DET 34

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricPackersLions
Offensive plays4476
Total yards299391 (edge)
Yards per play6.8 (edge)5.1
Expected points added / play0.13 (edge)0.06
Success rate45%49% (edge)
Dropback rate55%57%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.150.29 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.12 (edge)-0.24
Third downs1/57/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)7 (edge)5
First downs gained on snaps1525 (edge)
Sacks taken11
Turnovers11

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DET

Jared GoffQB

32/41, 283 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

11.8 expected points added · +5.5% completion over expected

Passing · GB

Jordan LoveQB

12/20, 206 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

6.7 expected points added · +2.5% completion over expected

Rushing · GB

Josh JacobsRB

18 att, 66 yds, 3 TD

1.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DET

David MontgomeryRB

14 att, 51 yds, 1 TD

0.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · GB

Christian WatsonWR

4/7 for 114 yds, 0 TD

37% of team targets · -0.2 expected points added

Receiving · DET

Jameson WilliamsWR

5/8 for 80 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · 1.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1DETDET 3013765:19Touchdown +7
2GBGB 30753:03Punt
3DETDET 8421:57Punt
4GBGB 48450:51Punt
5DETDET 117123:15Punt
6GBGB 172270:45Fumble
7DETDET 466141:49Field goal +3
8GBGB 3013687:26Touchdown +7
9DETDET 3014705:24Touchdown +7
10GBGB 30200:11End of half
11GBGB 307701:45Touchdown +7
12DETDET 30360:54Interception
13GBDET 164161:06Touchdown +7
14DETDET 3015706:13Touchdown +7
15GBGB 30571:40Punt
16DETDET 22481:56Turnover on downs
17GBDET 305302:06Touchdown +7
18DETDET 3012705:41Touchdown +7
19GBGB 3010715:01Field goal +3
20DETDET 3012633:38Field goal +3

11 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Lions gained 76 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Green Bay Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jordan Love12/202061016.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Josh Jacobs18663.731.6
Jordan Love4235.801.8
Emanuel Wilson177.000.3
Christopher Brooks133.000.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Christian Watson47114037%-0.2
Dontayvion Wicks4549026%1.7
Tucker Kraft3541126%3.6
Ben Sims11205%-0.1
Jayden Reed01005%-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Isaiah McDuffie3110.000
Keisean Nixon370.012
Quay Walker540.000
Kenny Clark430.000
Xavier McKinney430.000
Zayne Anderson220.000
Devonte Wyatt310.000
Colby Wooden310.000
Javon Bullard130.000
Lukas Van Ness120.000

Detroit Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jared Goff32/4128331111.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
David Montgomery14513.610.2
Jahmyr Gibbs15432.90-9.6
Amon-Ra St. Brown11010.000.6
Jared Goff471.801.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jameson Williams5880020%1.7
Sam LaPorta5754018%2.8
Amon-Ra St. Brown5643015%2.0
Tim Patrick6743218%0.9
David Montgomery5533013%1.7
Jahmyr Gibbs6630115%5.4
Brock Wright01003%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jack Campbell350.000
Al-Quadin Muhammad310.000
Carlton Davis210.001
Myles Adams210.000
Kerby Joseph210.000
Trevor Nowaske210.000
Brian Branch300.000
Terrion Arnold210.000
Jared Goff100.000
Ezekiel Turner100.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
DET -3
Closing total
53
GB moneyline
+142
DET moneyline
-170

Lions closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.

Total closed 53; the game landed 65 — over by 12.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Ford Field
Roof / surface
dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
GB 7 days · DET 7 days
Coaches
Matt LaFleur vs Dan Campbell

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.