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Detroit Lions 34, Packers 31 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 6:32, 2nd and 10, on Dontayvion Wicks — 14.8 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 6:32 · 2nd and 10
Dontayvion Wicks
Packers
(6:32) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 13-D.Wicks to DET 19 for 26 yards (31-K.Joseph). DET-32-B.Branch was injured during the play.
Dome
Lions closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Detroit Lions 34–31 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 6:32, Packers +14.8% win probability on one snap.
14.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jahmyr GibbsPackersQ3 1:29(1:29) 26-J.Gibbs right end to DET 30 for -1 yards (7-Q.Walker, 58-I.McDuffie).
13.8pts
Christian WatsonPackersQ4 7:57(7:57) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 9-C.Watson pushed ob at DET 45 for 29 yards (0-T.Arnold) [46-J.Campbell].
14.0pts
What separated them
Third down
Lions won this one — 7 of 15 on third down, against Packers at 1 of 5 on third down.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Packers owned this one and still lost it — +0.12 expected points per carry, against Lions at -0.24 expected points per carry.
Packersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Packers owned this one and still lost it — 7 chunk plays, against Lions at 5 chunk plays.
Packersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Lions won this one — +0.29 expected points per dropback, against Packers at +0.15 expected points per dropback.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 11 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Packers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Lionshigher on Packers163 of 175 plays carry both curves
(6:32) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 13-D.Wicks to DET 19 for 26 yards (31-K.Joseph). DET-32-B.Branch was injured during the play.
Swing −14.8 for LionsExpected points −2.06 for LionsModel and market agree here.play 150
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 6:32DET +15% win prob(6:32) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 13-D.Wicks to DET 19 for 26 yards (31-K.Joseph). DET-32-B.Branch was injured during the play.
4th · 7:57DET +14% win prob(7:57) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 9-C.Watson pushed ob at DET 45 for 29 yards (0-T.Arnold) [46-J.Campbell].
3rd · 1:29GB +14% win prob(1:29) 26-J.Gibbs right end to DET 30 for -1 yards (7-Q.Walker, 58-I.McDuffie).
4th · 1:42DET +13% win prob(1:42) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 14-A.St. Brown to GB 20 for 17 yards (25-K.Nixon). The Replay Official reviewed the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 14-A.St. Brown to GB 21 for 16 yards (25-K.Nixon).
3rd · 12:29GB +12% win prob(12:29) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right intended for 17-T.Patrick INTERCEPTED by 25-K.Nixon at DET 32. 25-K.Nixon ran ob at DET 16 for 16 yards (16-J.Goff).
3rd · 5:05DET +12% win prob(5:05) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 17-T.Patrick for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jake Bates's 35-yard field goal with 0:02 left in the 4th put Detroit Lions ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th8:43Tim Patrick·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+728–31
4th3:42Brandon McManus·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder D.Whelan · snap M.Orzech+331–31
4th0:02Jake Bates·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap H.HattenLead never changed again+331–34
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Packerscategory by categoryLions
Packers2–4Lions
299Total yards391
6.8Yards per play5.1
45%Success rate49%
20%Third-down rate47%
4Red-zone touchdowns4
7Explosive plays5
15First downs25
1Sacks taken1
1Turnovers1
The read
Lions ahead 4–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.13Packers: +0.13 expected points added per play
+0.06Lions: +0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.15Packers: +0.15 expected points added per play
+0.29Lions: +0.29 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.12Packers: +0.12 expected points added per play
−0.24Lions: −0.24 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 44 snaps at a 55% dropback rate against Lions’s 76 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Packers 5, Lions 5.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
DET's sack or hit rate, 29.2%, was the highest of the 26 team-games charted in week 14 — 0.6 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 22.4% in week 6.
2.1 times their own weekly swing above their number.
24 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
DET's blitz rate sent, 58.3%, was the highest of the 26 team-games charted in week 14 — 5.4 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 51.6% in week 11.
24 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.1 points.
high through week 14Against their seasonTendencies
GB's blitz rate sent, 37.2%, is past their previous high of 30.4% in week 9 — the highest of their 13 charted games through week 14.
2.3 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 3.6-swing turn from week 13.
43 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 13 pts
inside their normal wobble · −6.5 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−0.95× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Lions29.2%
off script — got home · +13.6 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+2.08× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
NoteGB's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 37.2%, 14.1 points above their season mean of 23.1% and 2.3 times their own 6.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Green Bay Packers
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
63Rasheed WalkerT · Every snap100%50 snaps
50Zach TomT · Every snap100%50 snaps
71Josh MyersC · Every snap100%50 snaps
10Jordan LoveQB · Every snap100%50 snaps
74Elgton JenkinsG · Every snap100%50 snaps
9Christian WatsonWR · Full-time92%46 snaps
85Tucker KraftTE · Full-time88%44 snaps
75Sean RhyanG · Full-time84%42 snaps
8Josh JacobsRB · Full-time80%40 snaps
13Dontayvion WicksWR · Heavy rotation78%39 snaps
11Jayden ReedWR · Heavy rotation50%25 snaps
89Ben SimsTE · Rotational36%18 snaps
30Chris BrooksRB · Rotational28%14 snaps
80Bo MeltonWR · Situational18%9 snaps
76Kadeem TelfortT · Situational16%8 snaps
18Malik HeathWR · Situational12%6 snaps
86John FitzPatrickTE · Situational12%6 snaps
31Emanuel WilsonRB · Situational6%3 snaps
Inactive · 5
Jacob MonkCCorey BallentineCBJaire AlexanderCBEdgerrin CooperILBRomeo DoubsWR
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Packers←Lions→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Goff pass−16% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(12:29) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right intended for 17-T.Patrick INTERCEPTED by 25-K.Nixon at DET 32. 25-K.Nixon ran ob at DET 16 for 16 yards (16-J.Goff).
Q3 12:29 · Lions · 2nd & 14 at DET 26 · gained nothing · -5.82 EP · −16.5% win probability
161 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 175 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 161 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 170. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 70 yards from the DET 30 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
175 of 175 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
175
EPA per play
+0.09
Success rate
49%
Yards
689
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35+0.0757%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR23-0.1852%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR20+0.3060%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17-0.0647%
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR16+0.3656%
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.1314%
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Packers0Lions6
Packers0Lions7
Touchdown15 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Packers 3
Punt8 plays, from the Packers 30 to the Packers 49
Punt4 plays, from the Lions 8 to the Lions 13
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 48 to the Lions 47
Punt7 plays, from the Lions 11 to the Lions 26
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter44 plays
Fumble lost1 play
Packers0Lions10
Field goal6 plays, from the Lions 46 to the Packers 25
Packers6Lions10
Packers7Lions10
Touchdown17 plays, from the Packers 30 to the Lions 1
Packers7Lions16
Packers7Lions17
Touchdown17 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Packers 1
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter43 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Packers13Lions17
Packers14Lions17
Touchdown7 plays, from the Packers 30 to the Lions 12
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Intercepted4 plays
Packers20Lions17
Packers21Lions17
Touchdown4 plays, from the Lions 16 to the Lions 6
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Packers21Lions23
Packers21Lions24
Touchdown15 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Packers 3
Punt6 plays, from the Packers 30 to the Packers 37
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Lions 22 to the Lions 31
The period ended3 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Lions 27
4th quarter46 plays
Packers27Lions24
Packers28Lions24
Touchdown3 plays, from the Lions 6 to the Lions 4
Packers28Lions30
Packers28Lions31
Touchdown12 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Packers 1
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.6 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runDigCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Packers31Lions31
Field goal12 plays, from the Packers 30 to the Lions 6
How the play was built
Three in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxNine defenders
Packers31Lions34
Field goal18 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Packers 14
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
