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3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 13 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chargers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chiefshigher on Chargers160 of 173 plays carry both curves
(:01) 49-M.Wright 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
Swing +32.5 for ChiefsExpected points +0.16 for ChiefsModel and market agree here.play 171
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:01KC +33% win prob(:01) 49-M.Wright 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
3rd · 3:36KC +18% win prob(3:36) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 1-Q.Johnston for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 13:09KC +11% win prob(13:09) 49-M.Wright 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
4th · 13:38LAC +11% win prob(13:38) (Shotgun) 10-I.Pacheco right guard to LAC 17 for 3 yards (43-T.Dye). PENALTY on KC-65-T.Smith, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 17.
4th · 8:13KC +10% win prob(8:13) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 5-J.Palmer to KC 31 for 8 yards (27-C.Conner).
4th · 6:03LAC +10% win prob(6:03) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at KC 24 for -7 yards (98-T.Wharton).
1st · 8:43
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Matthew Wright's 31-yard field goal with 0:01 left in the 4th put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st10:10Matthew Wright·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder M.Araiza · snap J.Winchester+30–3
2nd7:51Matthew Wright·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder M.Araiza · snap J.Winchester+30–6
2nd0:50DeAndre Hopkins·9-yd TD catch9-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+70–13
4th13:09Matthew Wright·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder M.Araiza · snap J.Winchester+314–16
4th4:39Cameron Dicker·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap J.Harris+317–16
4th0:01Matthew Wright·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder M.Araiza · snap J.WinchesterLead never changed again+317–19
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chargerscategory by categoryChiefs
Chargers3–4Chiefs
288Total yards300
5.1Yards per play4.8
40%Success rate52%
46%Third-down rate53%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
7Explosive plays2
17First downs18
3Sacks taken3
0Turnovers0
The read
Chiefs ahead 4–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Chargers, in explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.09Chargers: +0.09 expected points added per play
+0.02Chiefs: +0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.18Chargers: +0.18 expected points added per play
+0.06Chiefs: +0.06 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.07Chargers: −0.07 expected points added per play
−0.08Chiefs: −0.08 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 57 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 63 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 3, Chiefs 4.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LAC's sack or hit rate, 28.6%, sat 14.5 points above their season number of 14.1% — they got home by 2.1 times their own 7.0-point weekly swing.
A 2.6-swing turn from week 13.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 23 pts
off script — got home · +14.5 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+2.06× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Chiefs19.4%
right on their number · +1.7 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (+0.17× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
NoteLAC's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 28.6%, 14.5 points above their season mean of 14.1% and 2.1 times their own 7.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chargers←Chiefs→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Matthew Wright+33% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:01) 49-M.Wright 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
Q4 0:01 · Chiefs · 3rd & 12 at LAC 13 · gained nothing · +0.16 EP · +33.5% win probability
158 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 158 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 168. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 79 yards from the LAC 21 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
+0.08
Success rate
45%
Yards
586
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36+0.0667%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30+0.0263%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR26+0.0365%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11-0.0236%
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+0.1920%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Chargers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Chargers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Chiefs2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Chargers0Chiefs3
Field goal12 plays, from the Chiefs 37 to the Chargers 27
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Punt9 plays, from the Chargers 30 to the Chiefs 39
Punt6 plays, from the Chiefs 16 to the Chiefs 39
Punt9 plays, from the Chargers 2 to the Chiefs 45
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter55 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 18 to the Chiefs 33
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 17 to the Chargers 18
Chargers0Chiefs6
Field goal9 plays, from the Chiefs 45 to the Chargers 15
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 41 to the Chargers 45
Punt6 plays, from the Chiefs 9 to the Chiefs 17
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 35 to the Chargers 37
Chargers0Chiefs12
Chargers0Chiefs13
Touchdown12 plays, from the Chiefs 23 to the Chargers 9
The period ended9 plays, from the Chargers 21 to the Chargers 37
3rd quarter37 plays
Chargers6Chiefs13
Chargers7Chiefs13
Touchdown16 plays, from the Chargers 21 to the Chiefs 3
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 15 to the Chiefs 24
Chargers13Chiefs13
Chargers14Chiefs13
Touchdown6 plays, from the Chargers 26 to the Chiefs 4
The period ended10 plays, from the Chiefs 23 to the Chargers 42
4th quarter42 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Chargers14Chiefs16
Field goal5 plays, from the Chargers 35 to the Chargers 20
Chargers17Chiefs16
Field goal16 plays, from the Chargers 24 to the Chiefs 17
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.1 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.8 seconds
Chargers17Chiefs19
Field goal20 plays, from the Chiefs 40 to the Chargers 11
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chiefs -5
Closing total
43.5
Chargers moneyline
+195
Chiefs moneyline
-238
Chiefs closed -5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 36 — under by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 50°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 10 mph out of the south-west; 0.02 in of precipitation; overcast.
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
Chargers 7 days · Chiefs 9 days
Coaches
Jim Harbaugh vs Andy Reid
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
KC +10% win prob
(8:43) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep middle to 1-Q.Johnston to LAC 45 for 21 yards (22-T.McDuffie). PENALTY on KC-32-N.Bolton, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 45.
4th · 3:28KC +9% win prob(3:28) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles right end pushed ob at LAC 34 for 10 yards (43-T.Dye).
