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2024 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 8, 2024 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Los Angeles Chargers

17

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

19

KC -5 no coverU 43.5 ✓

Kansas City Chiefs 19–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:01, KC +33% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3KC ↑LAC ↓
Q4 · 0:01LAC 17 — KC 19KC ball · 3rd & 12KC 67%

(:01) 49-M.Wright 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:01KC +33% win prob(:01) 49-M.Wright 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
  2. Q3 · 3:36KC +18% win prob(3:36) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 1-Q.Johnston for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q4 · 13:09KC +11% win prob(13:09) 49-M.Wright 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
  4. Q4 · 13:38LAC +11% win prob(13:38) (Shotgun) 10-I.Pacheco right guard to LAC 17 for 3 yards (43-T.Dye). PENALTY on KC-65-T.Smith, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 17.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 10:10KC Field goal

    (10:10) 49-M.Wright 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

    Score after this play: LAC 0 — KC 3
  2. Q2 · 7:51KC Field goal

    (7:51) 49-M.Wright 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

    Score after this play: LAC 0 — KC 6
  3. Q2 · 0:50KC Touchdown

    (:50) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 8-D.Hopkins for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 0 — KC 13
  4. Q3 · 7:15LAC Touchdown

    (7:15) (Shotgun) 4-G.Edwards left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 7 — KC 13
  5. Q3 · 3:36LAC Touchdown

    (3:36) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 1-Q.Johnston for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 14 — KC 13
  6. Q4 · 13:09KC Field goal

    (13:09) 49-M.Wright 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

    Score after this play: LAC 14 — KC 16
  7. Q4 · 4:39LAC Field goal

    (4:39) 11-C.Dicker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: LAC 17 — KC 16
  8. Q4 · 0:01KC Field goal

    (:01) 49-M.Wright 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

    Score after this play: LAC 17 — KC 19

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricChargersChiefs
Offensive plays5763
Total yards288300 (edge)
Yards per play5.1 (edge)4.8
Expected points added / play0.09 (edge)0.02
Success rate40%52% (edge)
Dropback rate63%67%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.18 (edge)0.06
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.07 (edge)-0.08
Third downs6/138/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)7 (edge)2
First downs gained on snaps1718 (edge)
Sacks taken33
Turnovers00

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

21/30, 213 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

8.2 expected points added · +8.5% completion over expected

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

24/37, 210 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

0.6 expected points added · +0.1% completion over expected

Rushing · KC

Isiah PachecoRB

14 att, 55 yds, 0 TD

0.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LAC

Gus EdwardsRB

10 att, 36 yds, 1 TD

-0.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LAC

Josh PalmerWR

6/9 for 78 yds, 0 TD

31% of team targets · 7.4 expected points added

Receiving · LAC

Stone SmarttTE

3/3 for 54 yds, 0 TD

10% of team targets · 4.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1KCKC 3712344:55Field goal +3
2LACLAC 308263:31Punt
3KCKC 166232:07Punt
4LACLAC 28534:19Punt
5KCKC 126212:45Punt
6LACLAC 17411:03Punt
7KCKC 457403:33Field goal +3
8LACLAC 41541:27Punt
9KCKC 9471:35Punt
10LACLAC 354121:17Punt
11KCKC 2310622:41Touchdown +7
12LACLAC 216310:47End of half
13LACLAC 2115747:48Touchdown +7
14KCKC 15591:30Punt
15LACLAC 265352:12Touchdown +7
16KCKC 2313555:26Field goal +3
17LACLAC 2415528:29Field goal +3
18KCKC 4015494:35Field goal +3

8 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chargers gained 74 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Justin Herbert21/302131038.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Gus Edwards10363.61-0.3
Kimani Vidal8344.30-0.5
Justin Herbert4123.00-0.6
Taylor Heinicke11212.00-0.2
Derius Davis100.00-1.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Josh Palmer6978031%7.4
Stone Smartt3354010%4.5
Quentin Johnston5748124%6.5
Will Dissly221907%-0.8
D.J. Chark11903%0.6
Jalen Reagor11403%-1.2
Derius Davis241014%-2.2
Kimani Vidal01003%-1.4
Tucker Fisk11003%-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Daiyan Henley620.001
Elijah Molden420.000
Tarheeb Still600.000
Troy Dye420.000
Otito Ogbonnia230.000
Marcus Maye320.001
Kristian Fulton310.000
Cam Hart300.001
Poona Ford210.000
Tuli Tuipulotu110.500

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Patrick Mahomes24/372101030.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Isiah Pacheco14553.900.2
Patrick Mahomes4174.301.1
Kareem Hunt5163.20-1.6
Xavier Worthy155.000.0
Samaje Perine133.00-0.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Travis Kelce5645017%2.7
Xavier Worthy5641017%2.5
DeAndre Hopkins4932125%-1.7
JuJu Smith-Schuster223106%1.7
Noah Gray4526014%0.9
Samaje Perine121606%0.5
Kareem Hunt111303%1.4
Isiah Pacheco246011%-1.4
Baylor Cupp01003%-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Chamarri Conner720.000
Drue Tranquill430.000
Nick Bolton501.000
Leo Chenal230.000
Joshua Williams320.000
Justin Reid310.000
Bryan Cook220.000
Mike Pennel130.000
Tershawn Wharton302.000
Michael Danna120.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
KC -5
Closing total
43.5
LAC moneyline
+195
KC moneyline
-238

Chiefs closed -5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 36 — under by 7.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
50°F, wind 10 mph
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
LAC 7 days · KC 9 days
Coaches
Jim Harbaugh vs Andy Reid

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.