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2024 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 8, 2024 · Raymond James Stadium

Las Vegas Raiders

13

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

28

TB -7 ✓U 47 ✓

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28–13. Biggest swing: Q3 4:45, LV +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3TB ↑LV ↓
Q3 · 4:45LV 10 — TB 14LV ball · 2nd & 8TB 64%

(4:45) (Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell pass short left intended for 89-B.Bowers INTERCEPTED by 23-T.Smith at TB 7. 23-T.Smith to TB 7 for no gain (89-B.Bowers).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q3 · 4:45LV +15% win prob(4:45) (Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell pass short left intended for 89-B.Bowers INTERCEPTED by 23-T.Smith at TB 7. 23-T.Smith to TB 7 for no gain (89-B.Bowers).
  2. Q2 · 0:39LV +9% win prob(:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right intended for 88-C.Otton INTERCEPTED by 18-J.Jones [95-J.Jenkins] at LV -8. 18-J.Jones ran ob at LV 16 for 24 yards (67-L.Goedeke). Penalty on TB-15-J.McMillan, Offensive Offside, declined.
  3. Q4 · 11:03TB +8% win prob(11:03) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 13-M.Evans to LV 44 for 32 yards (25-D.Richardson).
  4. Q3 · 6:30TB +7% win prob(6:30) 28-S.McCormick left guard to TB 12 for 2 yards (54-L.David).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 8:12TB Touchdown

    (8:12) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 15-J.McMillan for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LV 0 — TB 7
  2. Q1 · 3:58TB Touchdown

    (3:58) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 1-R.White for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LV 0 — TB 14
  3. Q2 · 9:28LV Touchdown

    (9:28) 77-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 12-A.O'Connell up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LV 7 — TB 14
  4. Q2 · 4:31LV Field goal

    (4:31) 2-D.Carlson 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    Score after this play: LV 10 — TB 14
  5. Q4 · 8:52TB Touchdown

    (8:52) 1-R.White up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LV 10 — TB 21
  6. Q4 · 3:08LV Field goal

    (3:08) 2-D.Carlson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    Score after this play: LV 13 — TB 21
  7. Q4 · 2:03TB Touchdown

    (2:03) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 15-J.McMillan for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LV 13 — TB 28

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricRaidersBuccaneers
Offensive plays6359
Total yards287420 (edge)
Yards per play4.67.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.150.12 (edge)
Success rate41%51% (edge)
Dropback rate65%59%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.160.14 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.130.10 (edge)
Third downs4/135/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)510 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1520 (edge)
Sacks taken2 (edge)4
Turnovers2 (edge)3

Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.15.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Baker MayfieldQB

18/29, 295 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT

4.7 expected points added · -2.3% completion over expected

Passing · LV

Aidan O'ConnellQB

11/19, 104 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-7.6 expected points added · -3.8% completion over expected

Rushing · TB

Rachaad WhiteRB

17 att, 90 yds, 1 TD

2.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LV

Sincere McCormickRB

15 att, 78 yds, 0 TD

3.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TB

Cade OttonTE

3/4 for 70 yds, 0 TD

14% of team targets · 1.3 expected points added

Receiving · TB

Mike EvansWR

4/5 for 69 yds, 0 TD

18% of team targets · 3.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1TBTB 1514856:53Touchdown +7
2LVLV 205-101:30Punt
3TBTB 486522:45Touchdown +7
4LVLV 307242:34Punt
5TBTB 216192:42Interception
6LVTB 36100:03Fumble
7TBTB 354101:30Fumble
8LVTB 457442:42Touchdown +7
9TBTB 20541:39Punt
10LVLV 487463:14Field goal +3
11TBTB 318484:03Interception
12LVLV 16100:25End of half
13LVLV 29176610:20Interception
14TBTB 76252:49Punt
15LVLV 48480:47Punt
16TBTB 207202:01Punt
17LVLV 204122:17Punt
18TBTB 237772:59Touchdown +7
19LVLV 3512575:42Field goal +3
20TBTB 207801:09Touchdown +7
21LVLV 3011401:56End of game

7 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 85 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Aidan O'Connell11/19104011-7.6
Desmond Ridder12/181010011.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Sincere McCormick15785.203.5
Aidan O'Connell661.01-4.3
Desmond Ridder231.50-1.5
Brock Bowers133.00-0.1
Ameer Abdullah111.00-0.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Michael Mayer7968026%3.5
Jakobi Meyers71067029%0.8
Brock Bowers3549014%-1.8
Sincere McCormick231109%-0.5
Tre Tucker257014%-2.1
Terrace Marshall11603%0.4
Ameer Abdullah12-306%-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Trevon Moehrig530.503
Darnay Holmes431.001
Robert Spillane420.000
Decamerion Richardson320.000
Jonah Laulu410.000
Isaiah Pola-Mao220.000
Jack Jones300.011
Adam Butler121.000
Tyree Wilson110.000
Thomas Harper110.000

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Baker Mayfield18/292953244.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Rachaad White17905.312.5
Sean Tucker34715.702.8
Baker Mayfield2126.000.3
Bucky Irving430.80-3.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Cade Otton3470014%1.3
Mike Evans4569018%3.2
Sterling Shepard4663021%5.8
Jalen McMillan4759225%2.5
Rachaad White2319111%1.5
Bucky Irving111504%1.0
Sean Tucker02007%-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Kaevon Merriweather431.000
Zyon McCollum510.000
Lavonte David421.000
Vi Jones230.000
Christian Izien220.000
Tavierre Thomas220.000
Chris Braswell400.000
Logan Hall210.000
Ryan Miller120.000
YaYa Diaby210.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
TB -7
Closing total
47
LV moneyline
+260
TB moneyline
-325

Buccaneers closed -7 and covered, winning by 15.

Total closed 47; the game landed 41 — under by 6.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
71°F, wind 4 mph
Referee
Alan Eck
Rest
LV 9 days · TB 7 days
Coaches
Antonio Pierce vs Todd Bowles