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2024 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 8, 2024 · Raymond James Stadium
Final
RaidersLas Vegas13
BY 15final margin
BuccaneersTampa Bay28
Las Vegas Raiders 13 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28. Final.
Buccaneers -7 ✓U 47 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 14
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28, Raiders 13 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 4:45, 2nd and 8, on Tykee Smith — 15.2 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 4:45 · 2nd and 8
Tykee Smith
Buccaneers
(4:45) (Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell pass short left intended for 89-B.Bowers INTERCEPTED by 23-T.Smith at TB 7. 23-T.Smith to TB 7 for no gain (89-B.Bowers).
Buccaneers closed -7 and covered, winning by 15.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28–13. Biggest swing: Q3 4:45, Buccaneers +15.2% win probability on one snap.
15.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jack JonesRaidersQ2 0:39(:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right intended for 88-C.Otton INTERCEPTED by 18-J.Jones [95-J.Jenkins] at LV -8. 18-J.Jones ran ob at LV 16 for 24 yards (67-L.Goedeke). Penalty on TB-15-J.McMillan, Offensive Offside, declined.
9.1pts
Mike EvansBuccaneersQ4 11:03(11:03) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 13-M.Evans to LV 44 for 32 yards (25-D.Richardson).
7.5pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Buccaneers won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Raiders at 5 chunk plays.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Buccaneers won this one — +0.12 expected points per snap, against Raiders at -0.15 expected points per snap.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Buccaneers won this one — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Raiders at 41% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Buccaneers won this one — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Raiders at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Buccaneershigher on Raiders156 of 164 plays carry both curves
(4:45) (Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell pass short left intended for 89-B.Bowers INTERCEPTED by 23-T.Smith at TB 7. 23-T.Smith to TB 7 for no gain (89-B.Bowers).
Swing +15.2 for BuccaneersExpected points +4.76 for BuccaneersThe model had Raiders 14 points higher than the market did.play 100
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 4:45LV +15% win prob(4:45) (Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell pass short left intended for 89-B.Bowers INTERCEPTED by 23-T.Smith at TB 7. 23-T.Smith to TB 7 for no gain (89-B.Bowers).
2nd · 0:39LV +9% win prob(:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right intended for 88-C.Otton INTERCEPTED by 18-J.Jones [95-J.Jenkins] at LV -8. 18-J.Jones ran ob at LV 16 for 24 yards (67-L.Goedeke). Penalty on TB-15-J.McMillan, Offensive Offside, declined.
4th · 11:03TB +8% win prob(11:03) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 13-M.Evans to LV 44 for 32 yards (25-D.Richardson).
3rd · 6:30TB +7% win prob(6:30) 28-S.McCormick left guard to TB 12 for 2 yards (54-L.David).
4th · 9:40TB +5% win prob(9:40) (Shotgun) 44-S.Tucker right end to LV 3 for 34 yards (25-D.Richardson; 96-J.Laulu).
2nd · 9:28TB +5% win prob(9:28) 77-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 12-A.O'Connell up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jalen McMillan's 15-yard touchdown catch with 8:12 left in the 1st put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Buccaneers ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.15Raiders: −0.15 expected points added per play
+0.12Buccaneers: +0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.16Raiders: −0.16 expected points added per play
+0.14Buccaneers: +0.14 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.13Raiders: −0.13 expected points added per play
+0.10Buccaneers: +0.10 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Raiders ran 63 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 59 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Raiders 4, Buccaneers 5.
NoteBuccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.15.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LV's play-action rate turned over: 35.1% in week 13 against 14.6% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
41 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.7 points.
TB's pass rate over expected turned over: −10.3 pts in week 13 against +2.7 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
59 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 16 pts
leaned — got home · +7.5 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+1.23× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Buccaneers14.6%
right on their number · −0.8 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.14× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
NoteLV's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 20.0%, 7.5 points above their season mean of 12.5% and 1.2 times their own 6.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
—Delmar GlazeT · Every snap100%67 snaps
74Kolton MillerT · Every snap100%67 snaps
61Jordan MeredithG · Every snap100%67 snaps
66Dylan ParhamG · Every snap100%67 snaps
58Jackson Powers-JohnsonG · Every snap100%67 snaps
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Raiders←Buccaneers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.O'Connell pass−20% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(4:45) (Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell pass short left intended for 89-B.Bowers INTERCEPTED by 23-T.Smith at TB 7. 23-T.Smith to TB 7 for no gain (89-B.Bowers).
Q3 4:45 · Raiders · 2nd & 8 at TB 10 · gained nothing · -4.76 EP · −20.2% win probability
154 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 164 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 154 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 159. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 85 yards from the TB 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, LV attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
164 of 164 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
164
EPA per play
-0.03
Success rate
44%
Yards
706
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR41-0.3176%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32-0.0272%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15-0.0153%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR12+0.2350%
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.4217%
Buccaneers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.9217%
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5+0.3420%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
164 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
164 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Raiders0Buccaneers6
Raiders0Buccaneers7
Touchdown15 plays, from the Buccaneers 15 to the Raiders 15
Punt5 plays
Raiders0Buccaneers13
Raiders0Buccaneers14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Buccaneers 48 to the Raiders 5
Punt8 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Raiders 45
The period ended4 plays
2nd quarter43 plays
Intercepted3 plays, from the Buccaneers 38 to the Buccaneers 43
Fumble lost1 play
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Buccaneers 35 to the Raiders 44
Raiders6Buccaneers14
Raiders7Buccaneers14
Touchdown8 plays, from the Buccaneers 45 to the Buccaneers 1
Punt6 plays
Raiders10Buccaneers14
Field goal7 plays, from the Raiders 48 to the Buccaneers 6
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
Intercepted12 plays, from the Buccaneers 31 to the Raiders 20
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter33 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Intercepted18 plays, from the Raiders 29 to the Buccaneers 10
Punt7 plays, from the Buccaneers 7 to the Buccaneers 27
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 48 to the Buccaneers 44
The period ended4 plays, from the Buccaneers 20 to the Buccaneers 22
4th quarter49 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 36 to the Buccaneers 40
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 20 to the Raiders 29
Raiders10Buccaneers20
Raiders10Buccaneers21
Touchdown7 plays, from the Buccaneers 23 to the Raiders 3
Raiders13Buccaneers21
Field goal12 plays, from the Raiders 35 to the Buccaneers 5
Raiders13Buccaneers27
Raiders13Buccaneers28
Touchdown10 plays, from the Buccaneers 20 to the Raiders 29
The period ended12 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Buccaneers 30
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
