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polling · 1800s tick · as of 3:44 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 8, 2024 · Raymond James Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 14
It turned at Q3 4:45, 2nd and 8, on Tykee Smith — 15.2 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28–13. Biggest swing: Q3 4:45, Buccaneers +15.2% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 4:45 · 2nd and 8
Tykee Smith
Buccaneers
(4:45) (Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell pass short left intended for 89-B.Bowers INTERCEPTED by 23-T.Smith at TB 7. 23-T.Smith to TB 7 for no gain (89-B.Bowers).
15.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Buccaneers won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Raiders at 5 chunk plays.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Buccaneers won this one — +0.12 expected points per snap, against Raiders at -0.15 expected points per snap.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Buccaneers won this one — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Raiders at 41% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Buccaneers won this one — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Raiders at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 8.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
(4:45) (Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell pass short left intended for 89-B.Bowers INTERCEPTED by 23-T.Smith at TB 7. 23-T.Smith to TB 7 for no gain (89-B.Bowers).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jalen McMillan's 15-yard touchdown catch with 8:12 left in the 1st put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Jalen McMillan15-yd TD catch15-yard touchdown catchfrom Baker MayfieldLead never changed again+70–77 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Raiderscategory by categoryBuccaneers
Buccaneers ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Raiders ran 63 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 59 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Raiders 4, Buccaneers 5.
Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.15.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
LV's play-action rate turned over: 35.1% in week 13 against 14.6% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
41 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.7 points. · −0.5σ from their own normal
TB's pass rate over expected turned over: −10.3 pts in week 13 against +2.7 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
59 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points. · +0.4σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Raiders2.4 ptsinside their normal wobble · +3.2 vs their -0.9 pts, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+0.50× that swing) · 63 snaps
Buccaneers2.7 ptsright on their number · +2.7 vs their -0.0 pts, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.43× that swing) · 59 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 29% to 91%
Tendencies room →Raiders63.8%right on their number · +1.0 vs their 62.8%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (+0.10× that swing) · 47 early downs
Buccaneers54.3%right on their number · −0.9 vs their 55.2%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (−0.09× that swing) · 46 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 44%
Tendencies room →Raiders14.6%inside their normal wobble · −5.1 vs their 19.7%, and they swing ±9.7 week to week (−0.53× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Buccaneers28.6%leaned — faked the run · +9.3 vs their 19.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+1.06× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -51% to 95%
Fourth Down room →Raiders50.0%inside their normal wobble · +18.9 vs their 31.1%, and they swing ±24.6 week to week (+0.77× that swing) · 6 fourth-and-short calls
Buccaneers—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 21.4%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 91%
Tendencies room →Raiders28.6%right on their number · −4.5 vs their 33.1%, and they swing ±13.1 week to week (−0.34× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Buccaneers39.0%right on their number · −4.9 vs their 43.9%, and they swing ±18.3 week to week (−0.27× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 31%
Tendencies room →Raiders20.0%leaned — got home · +7.5 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+1.23× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Buccaneers14.6%right on their number · −0.8 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.14× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
LV's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 20.0%, 7.5 points above their season mean of 12.5% and 1.2 times their own 6.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · TB
18/29, 295 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT
4.7 expected points added · -2.3% completion over expected
Passing · LV
11/19, 104 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-7.6 expected points added · -3.8% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Jalen McMillan banked 9.4 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachaad WhiteRB · Bell Cow Back | 24.9 | +8.3 | 76% | 71% | 11% | 0% | 17 car, 90 yd, 1 TD · 2/3, 19 yd, 1 TD |
| Jalen McMillanWR · Alpha Receiver | 21.9 | +9.4 | 79% | 83% | 25% | 27% | 4/7, 59 yd, 2 TD |
| Baker MayfieldQB · Starter QB | 19.0 | +3.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 18/29, 295 yd, 3 TD, 2 INT · 2 car, 12 yd |
| Michael MayerTE · Alpha Receiver | 13.8 | +0.2 | 81% | 78% | 26% | 25% | 7/9, 68 yd |
| Jakobi MeyersWR · Alpha Receiver | 13.7 | −0.3 | 91% | 98% | 29% | 32% | 7/10, 67 yd |
| Sincere McCormickRB · Bell Cow Back | 10.9 | −4.1 | 61% | 41% | 9% | 0% | 15 car, 78 yd · 2/3, 11 yd |
| Mike EvansWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.9 | +1.6 | 82% | 83% | 18% | 31% | 4/5, 69 yd |
| Sterling ShepardWR · Featured Receiver | 10.3 | +0.4 | 48% | 66% | 21% | 24% | 4/6, 63 yd |
| Cade OttonTE · Rotational Receiver | 10.0 | +2.3 | 97% | 94% | 14% | 21% | 3/4, 70 yd |
| Brock BowersTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.2 | −0.9 | 85% | 95% | 14% | 12% | 1 car, 3 yd · 3/5, 49 yd |
| Aidan O'ConnellQB · Starter QB | 6.8 | −7.9 | 66% | — | 0% | — | 11/19, 104 yd, 1 INT · 6 car, 6 yd, 1 TD |
| Sean TuckerRB | 4.7 | +0.1 | 18% | 23% | 7% | 0% | 3 car, 47 yd · 0/2, 0 yd |
| Desmond RidderQB | 4.3 | −3.6 | 34% | — | 0% | — | 12/18, 101 yd · 2 car, 3 yd |
| Bucky IrvingRB | 2.8 | −0.8 | 16% | 14% | 4% | 0% | 4 car, 3 yd · 1/1, 15 yd |
| Tre TuckerWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.7 | −6.4 | 88% | 93% | 14% | 29% | 2/5, 7 yd |
| Terrace MarshallWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | 0.0 | 22% | 20% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 6 yd |
| Ameer AbdullahRB | 0.8 | −4.4 | 39% | 59% | 6% | 1% | 1 car, 1 yd · 1/2, -3 yd |
| Ramel KeytonWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Payne DurhamTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 40% | 31% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Trey PalmerWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Ryan MillerWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Rakim JarrettWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 16% | 17% | 0% | — | No touches. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(4:45) (Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell pass short left intended for 89-B.Bowers INTERCEPTED by 23-T.Smith at TB 7. 23-T.Smith to TB 7 for no gain (89-B.Bowers).
Q3 4:45 · Raiders · 2nd & 8 at TB 10 · gained nothing · -4.76 EP · −20.2% win probability
154 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 164 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 154 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 159. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 85 yards from the TB 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, LV attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
164 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
164 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Raiders0
Buccaneers6Raiders0Buccaneers7Raiders0Buccaneers13Raiders0Buccaneers14Raiders6Buccaneers14Raiders7Buccaneers14Raiders10Buccaneers14How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
Raiders10Buccaneers20Raiders10Buccaneers21Raiders13Buccaneers21Raiders13Buccaneers27Raiders13Buccaneers28Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Raiders at Buccaneers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan O'Connell | 11/19 | 104 | 0 | 1 | 1 | −7.6 |
| Desmond Ridder | 12/18 | 101 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sincere McCormick | 15 | 78 | 5.2 | 0 | +3.5 |
| Aidan O'Connell | 6 | 6 | 1.0 | 1 | −4.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Mayer | 7 | 9 | 68 | 0 | 26% | +3.5 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 7 | 10 | 67 | 0 | 29% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevon Moehrig | 5 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 3 |
| Darnay Holmes | 4 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Robert Spillane |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 18/29 | 295 | 3 | 2 | 4 | +4.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_14_LV_TB
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Buccaneers closed -7 and covered, winning by 15.
Total closed 47; the game landed 41 — under by 6.0.
Conditions and crew
| Desmond Ridder | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | −1.5 |
| Brock Bowers | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| +0.8 |
| Brock Bowers | 3 | 5 | 49 | 0 | 14% | −1.8 |
| Sincere McCormick | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 9% | −0.5 |
| Tre Tucker | 2 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 14% | −2.1 |
| Terrace Marshall | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | +0.4 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 6% | −1.6 |
| 4 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Decamerion Richardson | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonah Laulu | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Pola-Mao | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Jones | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Adam Butler | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyree Wilson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Thomas Harper | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 17 | 90 | 5.3 | 1 | +2.5 |
| Sean Tucker | 3 | 47 | 15.7 | 0 | +2.8 |
| Baker Mayfield | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Bucky Irving | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 | −3.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Otton | 3 | 4 | 70 | 0 | 14% | +1.3 |
| Mike Evans | 4 | 5 | 69 | 0 | 18% | +3.2 |
| Sterling Shepard | 4 | 6 | 63 | 0 | 21% | +5.8 |
| Jalen McMillan | 4 | 7 | 59 | 2 | 25% | +2.5 |
| Rachaad White | 2 | 3 | 19 | 1 | 11% | +1.5 |
| Bucky Irving | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 4% | +1.0 |
| Sean Tucker | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7% | −1.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaevon Merriweather | 4 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zyon McCollum | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lavonte David | 4 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vi Jones | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Izien | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tavierre Thomas | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Braswell | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Logan Hall | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Miller | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| YaYa Diaby | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
