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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:38 AM ET · 16 to play
New Orleans Saints 14 at New York Giants 11. Final.
Saints -5.5 no coverU 41 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 14
New Orleans Saints 14, Giants 11 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:49, 4th and 10, on Drew Lock — 23.1 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:49 · 4th and 10
Drew Lock
Giants
(:49) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock scrambles right end pushed ob at NO 35 for 25 yards (31-J.Howden).
Saints closed -5.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
New Orleans Saints 14–11 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:49, Giants +23.1% win probability on one snap.
23.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Darius SlaytonGiantsQ4 2:29(2:29) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass deep left to 86-D.Slayton pushed ob at NYG 37 for 20 yards (14-K.McKinstry).
9.4pts
Graham GanoSaintsQ4 0:11(:11) 9-G.Gano 35 yard field goal is BLOCKED (90-B.Bresee), Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.
18.0pts
What separated them
Red zone
Saints won this one — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Giants at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Saints won this one — 42% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Giants at 35% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Saints won this one — +0.07 expected points per dropback, against Giants at -0.09 expected points per dropback.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Saints won this one — 5 of 15 on third down, against Giants at 5 of 19 on third down.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 15.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 31 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Giantshigher on Saints184 of 195 plays carry both curves
(:49) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock scrambles right end pushed ob at NO 35 for 25 yards (31-J.Howden).
Swing +23.1 for GiantsExpected points +2.46 for GiantsThe model had Giants 4 points higher than the market did.play 187
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:49NYG +23% win prob(:49) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock scrambles right end pushed ob at NO 35 for 25 yards (31-J.Howden).
4th · 0:11NO +18% win prob(:11) 9-G.Gano 35 yard field goal is BLOCKED (90-B.Bresee), Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.
4th · 2:29NYG +9% win prob(2:29) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass deep left to 86-D.Slayton pushed ob at NYG 37 for 20 yards (14-K.McKinstry).
4th · 2:00NO +9% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass incomplete short middle to 17-W.Robinson [90-B.Bresee].
1st · 7:55NO +8% win prob(7:55) 19-B.Grupe 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.
2nd · 0:04NO +8% win prob(:04) 19-B.Grupe 60 yard field goal is BLOCKED (91-C.Rogers), Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.
4th · 1:52
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Kendre Miller's 8-yard rushing touchdown with 1:27 left in the 1st put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st1:27Kendre Miller·8-yd TD run8-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–0
2nd11:24Graham Gano·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.Kreiter+37–3
Saints ahead 4–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.08Saints: −0.08 expected points added per play
−0.13Giants: −0.13 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.07Saints: +0.07 expected points added per play
−0.09Giants: −0.09 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.25Saints: −0.25 expected points added per play
−0.26Giants: −0.26 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 65 snaps at a 52% dropback rate against Giants’s 74 at 76%. Red-zone trips: Saints 2, Giants 3.
NoteSaints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.13.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
low through week 14Against their seasonFourth Down
NYG's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 14.3% in week 5 — the lowest of their 7 charted games through week 14.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 22.4 points.
NO's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 100.0% in week 13 against 20.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 28.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 15 pts
leaned — got home · +11.2 vs their 12.0%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+1.58× that swing) · 56 dropbacks
Giants11.8%
right on their number · −3.1 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.41× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
NoteNYG's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 52.9%, 23.8 points above their season mean of 29.2% and 1.9 times their own 12.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
78Erik McCoyC · Every snap100%68 snaps
75Taliese FuagaT · Every snap100%68 snaps
51Cesar RuizC · Every snap100%68 snaps
62Lucas PatrickG · Every snap100%68 snaps
70Trevor PenningT · Every snap100%68 snaps
4Derek CarrQB · Full-time93%63 snaps
87Foster MoreauTE · Heavy rotation72%49 snaps
41Alvin KamaraRB · Heavy rotation72%49 snaps
83Juwan JohnsonTE · Heavy rotation72%49 snaps
10Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Heavy rotation71%48 snaps
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Saints←Giants→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Lock scrambles+30% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:49) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock scrambles right end pushed ob at NO 35 for 25 yards (31-J.Howden).
Q4 0:49 · Giants · 4th & 10 at NYG 40 · gained 25 · +2.46 EP · +30.5% win probability
182 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 195 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 182 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 190. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
4 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 98 yards from the NO 2 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
195 of 195 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
195
EPA per play
-0.16
Success rate
35%
Yards
619
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR72-0.1171%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR22+0.0468%
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR14-0.1221%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR13+0.0038%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.0460%
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.4780%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
Giants1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
195 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
195 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 16 to the Saints 21
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw6.3 seconds
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Saints 48 to the Saints 36
No good7 plays, from the Giants 49 to the Giants 35
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 43 to the Saints 49
Saints6Giants0
Saints7Giants0
Touchdown10 plays, from the Saints 2 to the Giants 8
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 32 to the Giants 36
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter52 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Saints 23 to the Saints 31
Saints7Giants3
Field goal7 plays, from the Giants 49 to the Saints 19
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 39 to the Saints 46
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 48 to the Saints 42
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 8 to the Saints 13
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 49 to the Saints 45
The period ended7 plays, from the Saints 20 to the Saints 36
Punt8 plays, from the Giants 37 to the Saints 44
The period ended8 plays, from the Saints 16 to the Giants 42
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 30 to the Giants 38
Intercepted9 plays, from the Saints 21 to the Saints 48
Punt6 plays, from the Giants 17 to the Giants 25
Saints13Giants3
Saints14Giants3
Touchdown11 plays, from the Saints 31 to the Giants 11
The period ended9 plays, from the Giants 29 to the Saints 38
4th quarter61 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 48 to the Saints 30
Punt8 plays, from the Saints 11 to the Saints 46
Saints14Giants9
Saints14Giants11
Touchdown15 plays, from the Giants 18 to the Saints 1
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Saints 39
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.6 seconds
Intercepted8 plays, from the Giants 14 to the Giants 38
The period ended7 plays, from the Saints 47 to the Saints 48
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept clean
No good11 plays, from the Giants 27 to the Saints 12
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
