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2024 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 8, 2024 · MetLife Stadium

New Orleans SaintsWinner

14

New York Giants

11

NO -5.5 no coverU 41 ✓

New Orleans Saints 14–11 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:49, NYG +23% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3NYG ↑NO ↓
Q4 · 0:49NO 14 — NYG 11NYG ball · 4th & 10NO 91%

(:49) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock scrambles right end pushed ob at NO 35 for 25 yards (31-J.Howden).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:49NYG +23% win prob(:49) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock scrambles right end pushed ob at NO 35 for 25 yards (31-J.Howden).
  2. Q4 · 0:11NO +18% win prob(:11) 9-G.Gano 35 yard field goal is BLOCKED (90-B.Bresee), Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.
  3. Q4 · 2:29NYG +9% win prob(2:29) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass deep left to 86-D.Slayton pushed ob at NYG 37 for 20 yards (14-K.McKinstry).
  4. Q4 · 2:00NO +9% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass incomplete short middle to 17-W.Robinson [90-B.Bresee].

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 1:27NO Touchdown

    (1:27) (Shotgun) 25-K.Miller left tackle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NO 7 — NYG 0
  2. Q2 · 11:24NYG Field goal

    (11:24) 9-G.Gano 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

    Score after this play: NO 7 — NYG 3
  3. Q3 · 3:43NO Touchdown

    (3:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 83-J.Johnson for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NO 14 — NYG 3
  4. Q4 · 4:14NYG Touchdown

    (4:14) (Shotgun) 29-T.Tracy right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: NO 14 — NYG 11

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricSaintsGiants
Offensive plays6574
Total yards293327 (edge)
Yards per play4.5 (edge)4.4
Expected points added / play-0.08 (edge)-0.13
Success rate42% (edge)35%
Dropback rate52%76%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.07 (edge)-0.09
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.25 (edge)-0.26
Third downs5/15 (edge)5/19
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)56 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1717
Sacks taken22
Turnovers11

Saints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.13.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NYG

Drew LockQB

21/49, 227 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-11.1 expected points added · -18.1% completion over expected

Passing · NO

Derek CarrQB

20/31, 219 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

4.3 expected points added · -0.5% completion over expected

Rushing · NYG

Drew LockQB

5 att, 59 yds, 0 TD

5.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYG

Tyrone TracyRB

16 att, 45 yds, 1 TD

-4.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NYG

Malik NabersWR

5/10 for 79 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 3.2 expected points added

Receiving · NO

Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR

4/7 for 51 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 2.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1NONO 16551:28Punt
2NYGNO 487171:56Turnover on downs
3NONYG 497143:45Missed field goal
4NYGNYG 43481:21Punt
5NONO 210985:11Touchdown +7
6NYGNYG 32541:08Punt
7NONO 28431:09Punt
8NYGNYG 497262:42Field goal +3
9NONO 39592:08Turnover on downs
10NYGNO 48461:13Punt
11NONO 8451:42Defensive touchdown
12NYGNYG 49462:00Punt
13NONO 20652:28Punt
14NYGNYG 376191:20Punt
15NONO 165150:29Missed field goal
16NYGNYG 30581:35Punt
17NONO 217253:52Interception
18NYGNYG 17481:12Punt
19NONO 3110744:41Touchdown +7
20NYGNYG 2911515:05Punt
21NONO 117403:21Punt
22NYGNYG 1814846:03Touchdown +8
23NONO 30581:04Punt
24NYGNYG 147291:23Interception
25NONO 474-80:23Punt
26NYGNYG 2710611:13Missed field goal
27NONO 25100:08End of game

4 of 27 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 98 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New Orleans Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Derek Carr20/312191114.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Alvin Kamara17442.60-6.5
Kendre Miller10323.210.4
Derek Carr2126.000.1
Jamaal Williams351.70-2.3
Jake Haener1-1-1.000.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Marquez Valdes-Scantling4751023%2.8
Juwan Johnson4550116%2.9
Foster Moreau224006%3.3
Alvin Kamara5535016%0.6
Cedrick Wilson111803%2.8
Jamaal Williams221006%-0.5
Dallin Holker111003%0.7
Kevin Austin155016%-4.1
Kendre Miller01003%-1.3
Dante Pettis02006%-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Demario Davis530.012
Ugochukwu Amadi620.002
Pete Werner510.000
Will Harris410.001
Khalen Saunders311.000
Kool-Aid McKinstry400.002
Carl Granderson310.001
Alontae Taylor210.001
J.T. Gray210.000
Isaiah Foskey110.000

New York Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Drew Lock21/49227012-11.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Drew Lock55911.805.8
Tyrone Tracy16452.81-4.0
Devin Singletary284.00-0.8

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Malik Nabers51079022%3.2
Daniel Bellinger5745015%2.0
Tyrone Tracy51038022%-4.0
Wan'Dale Robinson41138024%-2.1
Darius Slayton2627013%-0.0
Jalin Hyatt02004%-2.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Micah McFadden530.000
Darius Muasau710.000
Jason Pinnock240.000
Tre Hawkins420.012
Elijah Garcia140.000
Dane Belton140.000
Tyler Nubin410.000
Isaiah Simmons210.000
Elijah Chatman120.000
Brian Burns121.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
NO -5.5
Closing total
41
NO moneyline
-245
NYG moneyline
+200

Saints closed -5.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 41; the game landed 25 — under by 16.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
54°F, wind 13 mph
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
NO 7 days · NYG 10 days
Coaches
Dennis Allen vs Brian Daboll