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2024 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 8, 2024 · Hard Rock Stadium

New York Jets

26

Miami DolphinsWinner

32

MIA -6.5 no coverO 45 ✓

Miami Dolphins 32–26. Biggest swing: Q4 0:12, MIA +24% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3End Q4MIA ↑NYJ ↓
Q4 · 0:12NYJ 26 — MIA 26MIA ball · 4th & 4NYJ 71%

(:12) 7-J.Sanders 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-Z.Triner, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:12MIA +24% win prob(:12) 7-J.Sanders 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-Z.Triner, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
  2. Q4 · 0:41MIA +18% win prob(:41) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 10-T.Hill pushed ob at NYJ 40 for 14 yards (4-D.Reed).
  3. OT · 9:54MIA +18% win prob(9:54) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 9-J.Smith to 50 for 20 yards (36-C.Clark).
  4. Q4 · 9:09MIA +17% win prob(9:09) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 10-T.Hill for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 10:29MIA Touchdown

    (10:29) (Shotgun) 28-D.Achane left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: NYJ 0 — MIA 6
  2. Q1 · 5:23NYJ Field goal

    (5:23) 18-A.Carlson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

    Score after this play: NYJ 3 — MIA 6
  3. Q2 · 14:57MIA Field goal

    (14:57) 7-J.Sanders 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-Z.Triner, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    Score after this play: NYJ 3 — MIA 9
  4. Q2 · 12:02NYJ Touchdown

    (12:02) 32-I.Davis left tackle for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NYJ 10 — MIA 9
  5. Q2 · 5:00MIA Field goal

    (5:00) 7-J.Sanders 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-Z.Triner, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    Score after this play: NYJ 10 — MIA 12
  6. Q2 · 0:52NYJ Field goal

    (:52) 18-A.Carlson 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

    Score after this play: NYJ 13 — MIA 12
  7. Q2 · 0:06MIA Field goal

    (:06) 7-J.Sanders 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-Z.Triner, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    Score after this play: NYJ 13 — MIA 15
  8. Q3 · 11:24NYJ Touchdown

    (11:24) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 17-D.Adams for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NYJ 20 — MIA 15
  9. Q3 · 1:06NYJ Field goal

    (1:06) 18-A.Carlson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

    Score after this play: NYJ 23 — MIA 15
  10. Q4 · 9:09MIA Touchdown

    (9:09) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 10-T.Hill for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: NYJ 23 — MIA 23
  11. Q4 · 0:56NYJ Field goal

    (:56) 18-A.Carlson 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

    Score after this play: NYJ 26 — MIA 23
  12. Q4 · 0:12MIA Field goal

    (:12) 7-J.Sanders 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-Z.Triner, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    Score after this play: NYJ 26 — MIA 26
  13. OT · 6:11MIA Touchdown

    (6:11) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 9-J.Smith for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: NYJ 26 — MIA 32

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricJetsDolphins
Offensive plays6366
Total yards402 (edge)377
Yards per play6.4 (edge)5.7
Expected points added / play0.23 (edge)0.23
Success rate52%58% (edge)
Dropback rate67%73%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.350.43 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.01 (edge)-0.31
Third downs4/12 (edge)1/9
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)4 (edge)3
First downs gained on snaps2125 (edge)
Sacks taken30 (edge)
Turnovers00

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NYJ

Aaron RodgersQB

27/39, 339 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

14.8 expected points added · +2.2% completion over expected

Passing · MIA

Tua TagovailoaQB

33/47, 331 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

21.1 expected points added · +3.3% completion over expected

Rushing · NYJ

Braelon AllenRB

11 att, 43 yds, 0 TD

-0.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYJ

Isaiah DavisRB

10 att, 40 yds, 1 TD

0.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIA

Tyreek HillWR

10/14 for 115 yds, 1 TD

31% of team targets · 9.3 expected points added

Receiving · NYJ

Garrett WilsonWR

7/10 for 114 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 9.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1MIAMIA 3010554:36Touchdown +6
2NYJNYJ 3012515:05Field goal +3
3MIAMIA 3011495:26Field goal +3
4NYJNYJ 308752:57Touchdown +7
5MIAMIA 2913707:00Field goal +3
6NYJNYJ 3012684:07Field goal +3
7MIAMIA 306310:47Field goal +3
8NYJ—100:02End of half
9NYJNYJ 309703:40Touchdown +7
10MIAMIA 306222:29Punt
11NYJNYJ 2014587:49Field goal +3
12MIAMIA 27500:28Punt
13NYJNYJ 174-12:11Punt
14MIAMIA 4010394:19Touchdown +8
15NYJNYJ 30561:31Punt
16MIAMIA 226213:08Punt
17NYJNYJ 1311633:33Field goal +3
18MIAMIA 467200:45Field goal +3
19NYJNYJ 302120:07Turnover on downs
20MIAMIA 309703:55Touchdown +6

13 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jets gained 75 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New York Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Aaron Rodgers27/3933910314.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Braelon Allen11433.90-0.6
Isaiah Davis10404.010.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Garrett Wilson710114026%9.0
Davante Adams911109128%7.4
Braelon Allen4538013%1.9
Tyler Conklin3533013%-1.6
Isaiah Davis3627015%3.1
Allen Lazard111803%0.9
Jeremy Ruckert01003%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jamien Sherwood1050.001
Brandin Echols910.001
Chuck Clark430.001
D.J. Reed510.001
Jalen Mills130.000
Ashtyn Davis120.000
Solomon Thomas120.000
Haason Reddick200.000
Quincy Williams110.000
Isaiah Oliver100.000

Miami Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Tua Tagovailoa33/4733120021.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Devon Achane14241.71-5.8
Jaylen Wright273.50-0.4
Tyreek Hill166.000.4
Jeffery Wilson144.000.3
Tua Tagovailoa133.00-0.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Tyreek Hill1014115131%9.3
Jaylen Waddle91299027%9.0
Devon Achane6745016%1.4
Jonnu Smith344419%4.4
Julian Hill111402%0.9
Jeffery Wilson11702%0.4
Jaylen Wright23607%-1.2
Odell Beckham11102%-1.7
Durham Smythe01002%-0.9
Malik Washington01002%-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jordyn Brooks451.001
Kendall Fuller620.001
Jordan Poyer430.000
Anthony Walker430.000
Benito Jones310.000
Jalen Ramsey400.001
Zach Sieler222.000
Jevon Holland120.000
Calais Campbell120.000
Da'Shawn Hand300.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
MIA -6.5
Closing total
45
NYJ moneyline
+240
MIA moneyline
-298

Dolphins closed -6.5, won by 6 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 45; the game landed 58 — over by 13.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
77°F, wind 12 mph
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
NYJ 7 days · MIA 10 days
Coaches
Robert Saleh vs Mike McDaniel

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.