For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Dolphinshigher on Jets178 of 193 plays carry both curves
(:12) 7-J.Sanders 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-Z.Triner, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
Swing +24.1 for DolphinsExpected points +1.23 for DolphinsThe model had Jets 8 points higher than the market did.play 178
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:12MIA +24% win prob(:12) 7-J.Sanders 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-Z.Triner, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
4th · 0:41MIA +18% win prob(:41) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 10-T.Hill pushed ob at NYJ 40 for 14 yards (4-D.Reed).
Overtime · 9:54MIA +18% win prob(9:54) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 9-J.Smith to 50 for 20 yards (36-C.Clark).
4th · 9:09MIA +17% win prob(9:09) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 10-T.Hill for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Overtime · 9:14MIA +12% win prob(9:14) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 9-J.Smith to NYJ 36 for 14 yards (94-S.Thomas; 35-J.Mills).
4th · 9:50NYJ +12% win prob(9:50) (Shotgun) 28-D.Achane left tackle to NYJ 4 for -3 yards (44-J.Sherwood, 22-T.Adams).
3rd · 12:05
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jonnu Smith's 10-yard touchdown catch with 6:11 left in overtime put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st10:29Devon Achane·2-yd TD run2-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide left+60–6
1st5:23Anders Carlson·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap T.Hennessy+33–6
2nd14:57Jason Sanders·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap Z.Triner+33–9
3rd1:06Anders Carlson·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap T.Hennessy+323–15
4th9:09Tyreek Hill·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua Tagovailoafrom Tua Tagovailoa · two-point good+823–23
4th0:56Anders Carlson·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap T.Hennessy+326–23
4th0:12Jason Sanders·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap Z.Triner+326–26
Overtime6:11Jonnu Smith·10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua Tagovailoafrom Tua TagovailoaLead never changed again+626–32
13 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Jetscategory by categoryDolphins
Jets4–4Dolphins
402Total yards377
6.4Yards per play5.7
52%Success rate58%
33%Third-down rate11%
2Red-zone touchdowns3
4Explosive plays3
21First downs25
3Sacks taken0
0Turnovers0
The read
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Dolphins, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.43 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.23Jets: +0.23 expected points added per play
+0.23Dolphins: +0.23 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.35Jets: +0.35 expected points added per play
+0.43Dolphins: +0.43 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.01Jets: −0.01 expected points added per play
−0.31Dolphins: −0.31 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 63 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 66 at 73%. Red-zone trips: Jets 5, Dolphins 4.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
NYJ's sack or hit rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 26 team-games charted in week 14 — 2.4 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 6.7% in week 6.
48 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
MIA's pass rate over expected, +11.5 pts, was the highest of the 26 team-games charted in week 14 — 2.0 points clear of the next team along.
65 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.2 points.
MIA's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 100.0% in week 13 against 33.3% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
6 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 13 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 28.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 24 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −13.6 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−1.57× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Dolphins14.3%
right on their number · +1.7 vs their 12.6%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.28× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
NoteNYJ's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 13.6 points below their season mean of 13.6% and 1.6 times their own 8.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jets←Dolphins→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
Jason Sanders+29% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:12) 7-J.Sanders 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-Z.Triner, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
Q4 0:12 · Dolphins · 4th & 4 at NYJ 34 · gained nothing · +1.23 EP · +28.8% win probability
176 snaps placed · 17 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 193 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 176 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 187. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
13 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 70 yards from the MIA 30 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
193 of 193 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
193
EPA per play
+0.20
Success rate
55%
Yards
779
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.2780%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30+0.3683%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR19+0.1658%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+0.0450%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.1562%
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.4633%
Dolphins1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Jets1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Dolphins2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
193 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
193 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Jets0Dolphins6
Touchdown11 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Jets 1
Jets3Dolphins6
Field goal13 plays, from the Jets 30 to the Dolphins 10
The period ended10 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Jets 27
2nd quarter54 plays
Jets3Dolphins9
Field goal2 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
Jets9Dolphins9
Jets10Dolphins9
Touchdown9 plays, from the Jets 30 to the Dolphins 17
Jets10Dolphins12
Field goal15 plays, from the Dolphins 29 to the Jets 6
Jets13Dolphins12
Field goal19 plays, from the Jets 30 to the Dolphins 7
Jets13Dolphins15
Field goal7 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Jets 39
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.0 seconds
Jets19Dolphins15
Jets20Dolphins15
Touchdown9 plays, from the Jets 30 to the Dolphins 3
Punt7 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Jets 48
Jets23Dolphins15
Field goal17 plays, from the Jets 20 to the Dolphins 17
Punt5 plays
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter53 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Jets 24 to the Jets 25
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSix defenders
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.9 seconds
Jets23Dolphins21
Jets23Dolphins23
Touchdown12 plays, from the Dolphins 40 to the Jets 1
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 30 to the Jets 37
Punt8 plays, from the Dolphins 22 to the Jets 49
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back and three tight endsDefense on the fieldFive linemen, three linebackers and three backsIn the boxSeven defenders
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Jets26Dolphins23
Field goal14 plays, from the Jets 13 to the Dolphins 24
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Jets26Dolphins26
Field goal8 plays, from the Dolphins 46 to the Jets 34
The period ended3 plays
Overtime11 plays
How the play was built
A screen, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.0 seconds
How the play was built
A screen, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.0 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Jets26Dolphins32
Touchdown10 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Jets 10
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Dolphins -6.5
Closing total
45
Jets moneyline
+240
Dolphins moneyline
-298
Dolphins closed -6.5, won by 6 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 45; the game landed 58 — over by 13.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 76°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 7 mph out of the east; clear.
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
Jets 7 days · Dolphins 10 days
Coaches
Robert Saleh vs Mike McDaniel
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
MIA +11% win prob
(12:05) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 32-I.Davis pushed ob at MIA 3 for 15 yards (6-A.Walker).
4th · 2:44MIA +11% win prob(2:44) (Shotgun) 71-W.Schweitzer reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 0-B.Allen. 0-B.Allen up the middle to NYJ 39 for 2 yards (95-B.Jones).
