2024 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 8, 2024 · State Farm Stadium

Seattle SeahawksWinner

Arizona Cardinals

ARI -3 upsetO 45.5 ✓DomeCardinals closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Seattle Seahawks 30–18. Biggest swing: Q1 3:37, SEA +14% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 3:37SEA 3 — ARI 7ARI ball · 2nd & 19ARI 66%

(3:37) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle intended for 18-M.Harrison INTERCEPTED by 13-E.Jones at ARI 31. 13-E.Jones to ARI 19 for 12 yards (6-J.Conner).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 3:37SEA +14% win prob(3:37) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle intended for 18-M.Harrison INTERCEPTED by 13-E.Jones at ARI 31. 13-E.Jones to ARI 19 for 12 yards (6-J.Conner).
Q1 · 2:51SEA +12% win prob(2:51) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left intended for 17-Z.Jones INTERCEPTED by 8-C.Bryant at SEA 45. 8-C.Bryant ran ob at ARI 46 for 9 yards (33-T.Benson). Penalty on ARI-70-P.Johnson, Offensive Holding, declined.
Q1 · 12:02ARI +11% win prob(12:02) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 14-Mi.Wilson for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 7:19SEA +10% win prob(7:19) 38-C.Ryland 40 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. ** Injury Update: ARI-12-B.Gillikin has returned to the game.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 12:02ARI Touchdown
(12:02) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 14-Mi.Wilson for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SEA 0 — ARI 7
Q1 · 4:44SEA Field goal
(4:44) 5-J.Myers 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Score after this play: SEA 3 — ARI 7
Q1 · 3:31SEA Touchdown
(3:31) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SEA 10 — ARI 7
Q1 · 0:20SEA Touchdown
(:20) 26-Z.Charbonnet left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SEA 17 — ARI 7
Q2 · 10:56ARI Field goal
(10:56) 38-C.Ryland 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
Score after this play: SEA 17 — ARI 10
Q2 · 2:45SEA Touchdown
(2:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-Z.Charbonnet left tackle for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SEA 24 — ARI 10
Q3 · 5:33SEA Field goal
(5:33) 5-J.Myers 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Score after this play: SEA 27 — ARI 10
Q3 · 1:08ARI Touchdown
(1:08) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 6-J.Conner for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: SEA 27 — ARI 18
Q4 · 2:00SEA Field goal
(2:00) 5-J.Myers 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Score after this play: SEA 30 — ARI 18

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Seahawks	Cardinals
Offensive plays	61	63
Total yards	409 (edge)	359
Yards per play	6.7 (edge)	5.7
Expected points added / play	0.16 (edge)	-0.07
Success rate	49% (edge)	46%
Dropback rate	49%	67%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.24 (edge)	-0.10
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.07 (edge)	-0.00
Third downs	7/15 (edge)	4/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7	7
First downs gained on snaps	18	22 (edge)
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	2
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Seahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.07.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ARI

Kyler MurrayQB

25/38, 259 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

-4.4 expected points added · -7.2% completion over expected

Passing · SEA

Geno SmithQB

24/30, 233 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

7.2 expected points added · +10.5% completion over expected

Rushing · SEA

Zach CharbonnetRB

22 att, 134 yds, 2 TD

4.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ARI

James ConnerRB

18 att, 90 yds, 0 TD

-1.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SEA

Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR

5/5 for 82 yds, 1 TD

17% of team targets · 7.2 expected points added

Receiving · ARI

Trey McBrideTE

7/14 for 70 yds, 0 TD

37% of team targets · 1.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ARI	ARI 30	8	65	3:07	Touchdown +7
2	SEA	SEA 27	14	66	7:12	Field goal +3
3	ARI	ARI 30	3	1	1:10	Interception
4	SEA	ARI 19	2	19	0:06	Touchdown +7
5	ARI	ARI 30	3	1	0:41	Interception
6	SEA	ARI 46	6	46	2:28	Touchdown +7
7	ARI	ARI 30	11	61	4:23	Field goal +3
8	SEA	SEA 30	6	26	2:11	Punt
9	ARI	ARI 18	5	13	2:51	Punt
10	SEA	SEA 20	6	95	3:15	Touchdown +7
11	ARI	ARI 30	6	16	1:04	Punt
12	SEA	SEA 28	6	20	1:28	Punt
13	ARI	ARI 5	1	0	0:04	End of half
14	SEA	SEA 30	5	9	2:03	Punt
15	ARI	ARI 20	4	9	1:58	Punt
16	SEA	SEA 37	10	49	5:30	Field goal +3
17	ARI	ARI 30	14	72	4:24	Touchdown +8
18	SEA	SEA 30	5	9	2:01	Punt
19	ARI	ARI 16	4	8	1:54	Punt
20	SEA	SEA 48	4	17	1:28	Punt
21	ARI	ARI 2	9	66	3:26	Missed field goal
22	SEA	SEA 30	12	53	5:20	Field goal +3
23	ARI	ARI 30	10	47	1:56	End of game

9 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Seahawks gained 95 scrimmage yards over 6 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Geno Smith	24/30	233	1	0	0	7.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Zach Charbonnet	22	134	6.1	2	4.2
Kenny McIntosh	7	38	5.4	0	0.3
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	1	4	4.0	0	-0.8
Geno Smith	1	0	0.0	0	-1.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	5	5	82	1	17%	7.2
Zach Charbonnet	7	7	59	0	24%	1.3
DK Metcalf	4	6	49	0	21%	2.7
Noah Fant	3	4	18	0	14%	0.4
A.J. Barner	1	1	13	0	3%	0.9
Kenny McIntosh	2	2	7	0	7%	-0.8
Pharaoh Brown	1	2	6	0	7%	-1.9
Tyler Lockett	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.6
George Holani	1	1	-1	0	3%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Tyrice Knight	3	8	0.0	0	2
Tariq Woolen	5	3	0.0	0	1
Devon Witherspoon	4	3	0.0	0	0
Leonard Williams	2	5	0.0	0	1
Julian Love	4	2	0.0	0	1
Ernest Jones	4	2	0.0	1	1
Coby Bryant	0	4	0.0	1	1
Rayshawn Jenkins	2	1	1.0	0	0
Josh Jobe	0	2	0.0	0	1
A.J. Barner	1	0	0.0	0	0

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kyler Murray	25/38	259	2	2	2	-4.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
James Conner	18	90	5.0	-1.1
Kyler Murray	3	16	5.3	1.3
Trey Benson	2	15	7.5	0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Trey McBride	7	14	70	0	37%	1.9
Michael Wilson	2	3	57	1	8%	4.3
Marvin Harrison	4	8	49	0	21%	-4.6
James Conner	4	4	32	1	11%	3.7
Emari Demercado	4	4	15	0	11%	-2.9
Tip Reiman	1	1	14	0	3%	0.7
Zay Jones	1	2	13	0	5%	-2.0
Greg Dortch	1	1	5	0	3%	-0.4
Trey Benson	1	1	4	0	3%	-0.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Budda Baker	8	10	0
Kyzir White	3	9	0
Jalen Thompson	2	4	0
Mack Wilson	2	3	0
Garrett Williams	1	3	0
Sean Murphy-Bunting	1	3	1
Jesse Luketa	1	2	0
Dante Stills	1	2	0
Dadrion Taylor-Demerson	1	2	0
Naquan Jones	1	1	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: ARI -3
Closing total: 45.5
SEA moneyline: +145
ARI moneyline: -175

Cardinals closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 48 — over by 2.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: SEA 7 days · ARI 7 days
Coaches: Mike Macdonald vs Jonathan Gannon

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.