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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:42 AM ET · 16 to play
2024 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 8, 2024 · State Farm Stadium
Final
SeahawksSeattle30
BY 12final margin
CardinalsArizona18
Seattle Seahawks 30 at Arizona Cardinals 18. Final.
Cardinals -3 upset
The verdict · 2024 Week 14
Seattle Seahawks 30, Cardinals 18 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 3:37, 2nd and 19, on Ernest Jones — 14.2 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 3:37 · 2nd and 19
Ernest Jones
Seahawks
(3:37) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle intended for 18-M.Harrison INTERCEPTED by 13-E.Jones at ARI 31. 13-E.Jones to ARI 19 for 12 yards (6-J.Conner).
O 45.5 ✓
Dome
Cardinals closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Seattle Seahawks 30–18. Biggest swing: Q1 3:37, Seahawks +14.2% win probability on one snap.
14.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Michael WilsonCardinalsQ1 12:02(12:02) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 14-Mi.Wilson for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10.9pts
Coby BryantSeahawksQ1 2:51(2:51) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left intended for 17-Z.Jones INTERCEPTED by 8-C.Bryant at SEA 45. 8-C.Bryant ran ob at ARI 46 for 9 yards (33-T.Benson). Penalty on ARI-70-P.Johnson, Offensive Holding, declined.
11.9pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Seahawks won this one — no giveaways, against Cardinals at 2 giveaways.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Seahawks won this one — +0.24 expected points per dropback, against Cardinals at -0.10 expected points per dropback.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Seahawks won this one — +0.16 expected points per snap, against Cardinals at -0.07 expected points per snap.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Seahawks won this one — 7 of 15 on third down, against Cardinals at 4 of 12 on third down.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cardinalshigher on Seahawks170 of 178 plays carry both curves
(3:37) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle intended for 18-M.Harrison INTERCEPTED by 13-E.Jones at ARI 31. 13-E.Jones to ARI 19 for 12 yards (6-J.Conner).
Swing −14.2 for CardinalsExpected points −4.82 for CardinalsThe model had Seahawks 3 points higher than the market did.play 29
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 3:37SEA +14% win prob(3:37) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle intended for 18-M.Harrison INTERCEPTED by 13-E.Jones at ARI 31. 13-E.Jones to ARI 19 for 12 yards (6-J.Conner).
1st · 2:51SEA +12% win prob(2:51) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left intended for 17-Z.Jones INTERCEPTED by 8-C.Bryant at SEA 45. 8-C.Bryant ran ob at ARI 46 for 9 yards (33-T.Benson). Penalty on ARI-70-P.Johnson, Offensive Holding, declined.
1st · 12:02ARI +11% win prob(12:02) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 14-Mi.Wilson for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 7:19SEA +10% win prob(7:19) 38-C.Ryland 40 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. ** Injury Update: ARI-12-B.Gillikin has returned to the game.
2nd · 3:57ARI +7% win prob(3:57) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to SEA 44 for 24 yards (42-D.Taylor-Demerson).
2nd · 2:45ARI +6% win prob(2:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-Z.Charbonnet left tackle for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 19-yard touchdown catch with 3:31 left in the 1st put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
4th2:00Jason Myers·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.Stoll+330–18
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Seahawkscategory by categoryCardinals
Seahawks7–1Cardinals
409Total yards359
6.7Yards per play5.7
49%Success rate46%
47%Third-down rate33%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
7Explosive plays7
18First downs22
0Sacks taken2
0Turnovers2
The read
Seahawks ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.16Seahawks: +0.16 expected points added per play
−0.07Cardinals: −0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.24Seahawks: +0.24 expected points added per play
−0.10Cardinals: −0.10 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.07Seahawks: +0.07 expected points added per play
−0.00Cardinals: −0.00 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 61 snaps at a 49% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 63 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 6, Cardinals 4.
NoteSeahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.07.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 14Against their seasonTendencies
ARI's blitz rate sent, 50.0%, is past their previous high of 43.9% in week 5 — the highest of their 13 charted games through week 14.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.8 points.
ARI's sack or hit rate turned over: 20.5% in week 13 against 6.7% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 20 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.6 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.79× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Cardinals6.7%
inside their normal wobble · −5.3 vs their 12.0%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−0.81× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
NoteARI's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 50.0%, 23.5 points above their season mean of 26.5% and 1.8 times their own 12.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Seattle Seahawks
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
67Charles CrossT · Every snap100%64 snaps
72Abraham LucasT · Every snap100%64 snaps
70Laken TomlinsonG · Every snap100%64 snaps
51Olu OluwatimiC · Every snap100%64 snaps
63Sataoa LaumeaT · Every snap100%64 snaps
7Geno SmithQB · Every snap100%64 snaps
11Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · Full-time97%62 snaps
14DK MetcalfWR · Full-time80%51 snaps
26Zach CharbonnetRB · Full-time80%51 snaps
16Tyler LockettWR · Heavy rotation67%43 snaps
87Noah FantTE · Heavy rotation59%38 snaps
88AJ BarnerTE · Rotational38%24 snaps
19Jake BoboWR · Rotational27%17 snaps
86Pharaoh BrownTE · Rotational25%16 snaps
25Kenny McIntoshRB · Situational23%15 snaps
36George HolaniRB · Situational3%2 snaps
38Brady RussellTE · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Tre BrownCBAJ FinleyFSPatrick O'ConnellILBTrevis GipsonOLBTy ZentnerPKenneth Walker IIIRBCody WhiteWR
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Seahawks←Cardinals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Murray pass−14% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(3:37) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle intended for 18-M.Harrison INTERCEPTED by 13-E.Jones at ARI 31. 13-E.Jones to ARI 19 for 12 yards (6-J.Conner).
Q1 3:37 · Cardinals · 2nd & 19 at ARI 21 · gained nothing · -4.82 EP · −14.1% win probability
168 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 178 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 168 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 173. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 80 yards from the SEA 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
178 of 178 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
178
EPA per play
-0.01
Success rate
49%
Yards
767
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44+0.2861%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43-0.0277%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.3117%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.1730%
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.6860%
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Cardinals2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Seahawks1 RB, 4 TE, 0 WR1——
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
178 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
178 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Seahawks0Cardinals6
Seahawks0Cardinals7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Cardinals 30 to the Seahawks 40
Seahawks3Cardinals7
Field goal15 plays, from the Seahawks 27 to the Cardinals 2
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Cardinals 30 to the Cardinals 31
Seahawks9Cardinals7
Seahawks10Cardinals7
Touchdown2 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.9 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Cardinals 30 to the Cardinals 31
Seahawks16Cardinals7
Seahawks17Cardinals7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Cardinals 46 to the Cardinals 1
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter45 plays
Seahawks17Cardinals10
Field goal9 plays, from the Cardinals 38 to the Seahawks 9
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the Seahawks 46
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 18 to the Cardinals 33
Seahawks23Cardinals10
Seahawks24Cardinals10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Seahawks 20 to the Seahawks 49
The period ended8 plays, from the Cardinals 30 to the Cardinals 42
Punt7 plays, from the Seahawks 28 to the Seahawks 49
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the Seahawks 39
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 20 to the Cardinals 29
Seahawks27Cardinals10
Field goal10 plays, from the Seahawks 37 to the Cardinals 14
Seahawks27Cardinals16
Seahawks27Cardinals18
Touchdown14 plays, from the Cardinals 30 to the Seahawks 2
The period ended4 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the Seahawks 36
4th quarter52 plays
Punt3 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 16 to the Cardinals 18
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 48 to midfield
No good10 plays, from the Cardinals 2 to the Seahawks 21
Seahawks30Cardinals18
Field goal15 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the Cardinals 17
The period ended13 plays, from the Cardinals 30 to the Seahawks 7
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
