For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Not startedThis page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
connecting · reading the slate
Game Center
2024 Week 15 · Mon, Dec 16, 2024 · Allegiant Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 15
It turned at Q1 0:19, 2nd and 10, on Drake London — 8.6 win-probability points to the Falcons on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Atlanta Falcons 15–9. Biggest swing: Q1 0:19, Falcons +8.6% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 0:19 · 2nd and 10
Drake London
Falcons
(:19) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass deep right to 5-D.London for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Raiders owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 1 trip, against Falcons at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Raidersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Falcons won this one — -0.11 expected points per carry, against Raiders at -0.53 expected points per carry.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Falcons won this one — 1 giveaway, against Raiders at 3 giveaways.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Raiders owned this one and still lost it — 41% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Falcons at 33% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Raidersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 12.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 31 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
(:19) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass deep right to 5-D.London for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Drake London's 30-yard touchdown catch with 0:19 left in the 1st put Atlanta Falcons ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Drake London30-yd TD catch30-yard touchdown catchfrom Kirk CousinsLead never changed again+77–0
Ameer Abdullah5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Desmond Ridder · kick blocked by K.King+615–96 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Falconscategory by categoryRaiders
Falcons ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Raiders, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.53 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 57 snaps at a 37% dropback rate against Raiders’s 64 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 2, Raiders 1.
Falcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.21 expected points added per play vs -0.26.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
ATL's early-down pass rate, 22.7%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 9.9 points clear of the next team along.
44 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.4 points. · −2.3σ from their own normal
ATL's pass rate over expected, −21.5 pts, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 10.7 points clear of the next team along.
57 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points. · −2.0σ from their own normal
ATL's play-action rate, 4.8%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 3.1 points clear of the next team along.
21 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points. · −1.5σ from their own normal
ATL's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 40.0% in week 2 — the lowest of their 8 charted games through week 15.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 32.2 points. · −1.6σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Falcons-21.5 ptsoff script — ran more than the situation asked · −13.4 vs their -8.1 pts, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−2.03× that swing) · 57 snaps
Raiders-3.1 ptsright on their number · −2.2 vs their -0.9 pts, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−0.34× that swing) · 64 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 18% to 92%
Tendencies room →Falcons22.7%off script — ran early · −26.3 vs their 49.1%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (−2.30× that swing) · 44 early downs
Raiders72.9%inside their normal wobble · +10.1 vs their 62.8%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (+0.93× that swing) · 48 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 44%
Tendencies room →Falcons4.8%leaned — dropped back clean · −9.8 vs their 14.5%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−1.48× that swing) · 21 dropbacks
Raiders17.8%right on their number · −2.0 vs their 19.7%, and they swing ±9.7 week to week (−0.20× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -35% to 133%
Fourth Down room →Falcons0.0%leaned — took the kick · −50.7 vs their 50.7%, and they swing ±32.2 week to week (−1.57× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Raiders—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 31.1%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 67%
Tendencies room →Falcons17.8%inside their normal wobble · −9.2 vs their 27.0%, and they swing ±12.4 week to week (−0.74× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Raiders42.9%inside their normal wobble · +9.8 vs their 33.1%, and they swing ±13.1 week to week (+0.74× that swing) · 21 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 30%
Tendencies room →Falcons13.3%right on their number · +1.8 vs their 11.5%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+0.25× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Raiders14.3%right on their number · +1.7 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+0.29× that swing) · 21 dropbacks
ATL's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 22.7%, 26.3 points below their season mean of 49.1% and 2.3 times their own 11.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · LV
23/39, 208 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-7.5 expected points added · -2.8% completion over expected
Passing · ATL
11/17, 112 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-7.5 expected points added · -2.5% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Drake London banked 8.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ameer AbdullahRB · Receiving Back | 19.6 | +6.4 | 46% | 57% | 21% | 5% | 3 car, 8 yd · 7/7, 58 yd, 1 TD |
| Bijan RobinsonRB · Committee Back | 14.5 | −0.7 | 76% | 90% | 13% | 6% | 22 car, 125 yd · 1/2, 10 yd |
| Drake LondonWR · Featured Receiver | 14.3 | +8.8 | 98% | 95% | 19% | 36% | 3/3, 53 yd, 1 TD |
| Desmond RidderQB · Starter QB | 11.1 | −4.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 23/39, 208 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 5 car, 28 yd |
| Jakobi MeyersWR · Alpha Receiver | 10.9 | −2.6 | 90% | 91% | 26% | 37% | 5/9, 59 yd |
| Kyle PittsTE · Alpha Receiver | 6.8 | +0.7 | 40% | 76% | 25% | 18% | 4/4, 28 yd |
| Brock BowersTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.5 | −3.0 | 94% | 96% | 18% | 24% | 3/6, 35 yd |
| Kirk CousinsQB · Starter QB | 6.5 | −0.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 11/17, 112 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 3 car, 0 yd |
| Sincere McCormickRB | 4.5 | −1.8 | 21% | 13% | 6% | 5% | 7 car, 8 yd · 2/2, 17 yd |
| Tyler AllgeierRB · Committee Back | 4.3 | −1.7 | 26% | 10% | 0% | — | 12 car, 43 yd |
| Tre TuckerWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.8 | −0.8 | 96% | 91% | 9% | 14% | 2/3, 18 yd |
| Charlie WoernerTE · Featured Receiver | 2.7 | −1.9 | 69% | 29% | 19% | 6% | 2/3, 7 yd |
| Ray-Ray McCloudWR · Featured Receiver | 2.4 | −2.8 | 41% | 76% | 19% | 24% | 1/3, 14 yd |
| Alexander MattisonRB · Receiving Back | 2.4 | −6.2 | 33% | 28% | 12% | 1% | 7 car, 21 yd · 2/4, 3 yd |
| Michael MayerTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | −1.0 | 70% | 70% | 6% | 12% | 1/2, 11 yd |
| Terrace MarshallWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | +0.2 | 39% | 35% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 7 yd |
| Ross DwelleyTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 50% | 19% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Darnell MooneyWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.5 | 91% | 100% | 6% | 9% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| KhaDarel HodgeWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Avery WilliamsRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Dylan LaubeRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(14:52) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short middle intended for 89-C.Woerner INTERCEPTED by 41-R.Spillane (69-A.Butler) at LV 46. 41-R.Spillane to LV 46 for no gain (89-C.Woerner).
Q3 14:52 · Falcons · 1st & 10 at ATL 45 · gained nothing · -5.37 EP · −15.1% win probability
160 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 172 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 160 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 167. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
5 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was LV moving 68 yards from the LV 32 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LV attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Falcons6
Raiders0Falcons7Raiders0Falcons7Raiders3Falcons9Raiders3How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Falcons12Raiders3Falcons15Raiders3Falcons15Raiders9How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Falcons at Raiders, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 11/17 | 112 | 1 | 1 | 3 | −7.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 22 | 125 | 5.7 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 12 | 43 | 3.6 | 0 | −1.9 |
| Kirk Cousins |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London | 3 | 3 | 53 | 1 | 19% | +7.1 |
| Kyle Pitts | 4 | 4 | 28 | 0 | 25% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaden Elliss | 6 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Hughes | 7 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dee Alford |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desmond Ridder | 23/39 | 208 | 1 | 2 | 3 | −7.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_15_ATL_LV
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Falcons closed -6.5, won by 6 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 24 — under by 20.5.
Conditions and crew
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| −2.4 |
| +0.3 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 19% | −0.4 |
| Bijan Robinson | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 13% | +0.5 |
| Charlie Woerner | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 19% | −5.6 |
| Darnell Mooney | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −1.8 |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Lorenzo Carter | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Harrison | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| J.D. Bertrand | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Grady Jarrett | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nate Landman | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kentavius Street | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Demone Harris | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Desmond Ridder | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 0 | +3.4 |
| Alexander Mattison | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 0 | −6.0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 | −1.3 |
| Sincere McCormick | 7 | 8 | 1.1 | 0 | −4.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakobi Meyers | 5 | 9 | 59 | 0 | 26% | −1.2 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 7 | 7 | 58 | 1 | 21% | +5.2 |
| Brock Bowers | 3 | 6 | 35 | 0 | 18% | −1.0 |
| Tre Tucker | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 9% | +0.3 |
| Sincere McCormick | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 6% | +0.2 |
| Michael Mayer | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 6% | −0.2 |
| Terrace Marshall | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3% | +0.4 |
| Alexander Mattison | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 12% | −4.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Pola-Mao | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Spillane | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Divine Deablo | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Adam Butler | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jonah Laulu | 4 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| John Jenkins | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Carter | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyree Wilson | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Thomas Harper | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Jones | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
