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Atlanta Falcons 15, Raiders 9 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 0:19, 2nd and 10, on Drake London — 8.6 win-probability points to the Falcons on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 0:19 · 2nd and 10
Drake London
Falcons
(:19) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass deep right to 5-D.London for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Falcons closed -6.5, won by 6 — but didn't cover.
Atlanta Falcons 15–9. Biggest swing: Q1 0:19, Falcons +8.6% win probability on one snap.
8.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetRaidersQ1 5:26(5:26) 13-B.Pinion punts 38 yards to end zone, Center-49-L.McCullough, Touchback.
7.0pts
Robert SpillaneRaidersQ3 14:52(14:52) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short middle intended for 89-C.Woerner INTERCEPTED by 41-R.Spillane (69-A.Butler) at LV 46. 41-R.Spillane to LV 46 for no gain (89-C.Woerner).
7.5pts
What separated them
Red zone
Raiders owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 1 trip, against Falcons at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Raidersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Falcons won this one — -0.11 expected points per carry, against Raiders at -0.53 expected points per carry.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Falcons won this one — 1 giveaway, against Raiders at 3 giveaways.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Raiders owned this one and still lost it — 41% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Falcons at 33% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Raidersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 31 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Raidershigher on Falcons162 of 172 plays carry both curves
(:19) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass deep right to 5-D.London for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −8.6 for RaidersExpected points −3.44 for RaidersThe model had Raiders 19 points higher than the market did.play 30
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 0:19LV +9% win prob(:19) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass deep right to 5-D.London for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 14:52ATL +7% win prob(14:52) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short middle intended for 89-C.Woerner INTERCEPTED by 41-R.Spillane (69-A.Butler) at LV 46. 41-R.Spillane to LV 46 for no gain (89-C.Woerner).
1st · 5:26ATL +7% win prob(5:26) 13-B.Pinion punts 38 yards to end zone, Center-49-L.McCullough, Touchback.
4th · 0:02ATL +6% win prob(:02) (Shotgun) 10-D.Ridder pass deep right INTERCEPTED by 3-J.Bates at ATL -7. Touchback.
4th · 1:56ATL +5% win prob(1:56) 13-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-49-L.McCullough, Touchback.
4th · 2:59LV +5% win prob(2:59) (Shotgun) 10-D.Ridder pass short right to 8-A.Abdullah for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 6:24
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Drake London's 30-yard touchdown catch with 0:19 left in the 1st put Atlanta Falcons ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Falcons ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Raiders, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.53 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.21Falcons: −0.21 expected points added per play
−0.26Raiders: −0.26 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.38Falcons: −0.38 expected points added per play
−0.15Raiders: −0.15 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.11Falcons: −0.11 expected points added per play
−0.53Raiders: −0.53 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 57 snaps at a 37% dropback rate against Raiders’s 64 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 2, Raiders 1.
NoteFalcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.21 expected points added per play vs -0.26.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
ATL's early-down pass rate, 22.7%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 9.9 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 33.3% in week 9.
2.3 times their own weekly swing below their number.
A 2.4-swing turn from week 14.
44 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.4 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
ATL's pass rate over expected, −21.5 pts, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 10.7 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of −13.1 pts in week 14.
2.0 times their own weekly swing below their number.
57 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
ATL's play-action rate, 4.8%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 3.1 points clear of the next team along.
21 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points.
low through week 15Against their seasonFourth Down
ATL's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 40.0% in week 2 — the lowest of their 8 charted games through week 15.
A 2.3-swing turn from week 14.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 32.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 16 pts
right on their number · +1.8 vs their 11.5%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+0.25× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Raiders14.3%
right on their number · +1.7 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+0.29× that swing) · 21 dropbacks
NoteATL's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 22.7%, 26.3 points below their season mean of 49.1% and 2.3 times their own 11.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Falcons←Raiders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Cousins pass−15% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(14:52) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short middle intended for 89-C.Woerner INTERCEPTED by 41-R.Spillane (69-A.Butler) at LV 46. 41-R.Spillane to LV 46 for no gain (89-C.Woerner).
Q3 14:52 · Falcons · 1st & 10 at ATL 45 · gained nothing · -5.37 EP · −15.1% win probability
160 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 172 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 160 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 167. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was LV moving 68 yards from the LV 32 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LV attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
172 of 172 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
172
EPA per play
-0.23
Success rate
35%
Yards
510
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR34-0.2974%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR33-0.3115%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR23-0.2461%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR23-0.1165%
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7-0.2343%
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Fumble lost12 plays, from the Raiders 28 to midfield
Punt7 plays, from the Raiders 48 to the Raiders 28
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 20 to the Raiders 21
Falcons6Raiders0
Falcons7Raiders0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Falcons 49 to the Raiders 30
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter41 plays
Falcons7Raiders3
Field goal8 plays, from the Raiders 38 to the Falcons 33
Punt12 plays, from the Falcons 20 to the Raiders 38
Falcons9Raiders3
Punt10 plays, from the Falcons 35 to the Raiders 42
The period ended9 plays, from the Raiders 8 to the Raiders 40
3rd quarter37 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
Punt5 plays
Falcons12Raiders3
Field goal6 plays, from the Raiders 37 to the Raiders 21
Punt8 plays, from the Raiders 30 to midfield
Punt7 plays, from the Falcons 8 to the Falcons 34
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 3 to the Raiders 11
The period ended5 plays, from the Raiders 48 to the Raiders 37
4th quarter60 plays
Falcons15Raiders3
Field goal4 plays, from the Raiders 35 to the Raiders 30
Punt6 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Raiders 41
Punt6 plays, from the Falcons 26 to the Raiders 41
Intercepted2 plays
No good6 plays, from the Raiders 39 to the Raiders 24
Falcons15Raiders9
Touchdown10 plays, from the Raiders 32 to the Falcons 5
Punt11 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Raiders 45
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, two linebackers and seven backsRoute runGoCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.9 seconds
Intercepted14 plays, from the Raiders 20 to the Falcons 35
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
