2024 Week 15 · Mon, Dec 16, 2024 · Allegiant Stadium

Atlanta FalconsWinner

Las Vegas Raiders

ATL -6.5 no coverU 44.5 ✓DomeFalcons closed -6.5, won by 6 — but didn't cover.

Atlanta Falcons 15–9. Biggest swing: Q1 0:19, LV +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 0:19ATL 6 — LV 0ATL ball · 2nd & 10ATL 78%

(:19) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass deep right to 5-D.London for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 0:19LV +9% win prob(:19) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass deep right to 5-D.London for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 14:52ATL +7% win prob(14:52) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short middle intended for 89-C.Woerner INTERCEPTED by 41-R.Spillane (69-A.Butler) at LV 46. 41-R.Spillane to LV 46 for no gain (89-C.Woerner).
Q1 · 5:26ATL +7% win prob(5:26) 13-B.Pinion punts 38 yards to end zone, Center-49-L.McCullough, Touchback.
Q4 · 0:02ATL +6% win prob(:02) (Shotgun) 10-D.Ridder pass deep right INTERCEPTED by 3-J.Bates at ATL -7. Touchback.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 0:19ATL Touchdown
(:19) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass deep right to 5-D.London for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 7 — LV 0
Q2 · 11:49LV Field goal
(11:49) 2-D.Carlson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Score after this play: ATL 7 — LV 3
Q2 · 5:39ATL Safety
(5:39) (Shotgun) 22-A.Mattison up the middle tackled in End Zone for -1 yards, SAFETY (96-Z.Harrison).
Score after this play: ATL 9 — LV 3
Q3 · 9:29ATL Field goal
(9:29) 6-Y.Koo 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Score after this play: ATL 12 — LV 3
Q4 · 13:31ATL Field goal
(13:31) 6-Y.Koo 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Score after this play: ATL 15 — LV 3
Q4 · 2:59LV Touchdown
(2:59) (Shotgun) 10-D.Ridder pass short right to 8-A.Abdullah for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: ATL 15 — LV 9

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Falcons	Raiders
Offensive plays	57	64
Total yards	261 (edge)	249
Yards per play	4.6 (edge)	3.9
Expected points added / play	-0.21 (edge)	-0.26
Success rate	33%	41% (edge)
Dropback rate	37%	70%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.38	-0.15 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.11 (edge)	-0.53
Third downs	4/13 (edge)	4/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	5
First downs gained on snaps	13	16 (edge)
Sacks taken	3 (edge)	4
Turnovers	1 (edge)	3

Falcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.21 expected points added per play vs -0.26.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LV

Desmond RidderQB

23/39, 208 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-7.5 expected points added · -2.8% completion over expected

Passing · ATL

Kirk CousinsQB

11/17, 112 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-7.5 expected points added · -2.5% completion over expected

Rushing · ATL

Bijan RobinsonRB

22 att, 125 yds, 0 TD

-0.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ATL

Tyler AllgeierRB

12 att, 43 yds, 0 TD

-1.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LV

Jakobi MeyersWR

5/9 for 59 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · -1.2 expected points added

Receiving · LV

Ameer AbdullahRB

7/7 for 58 yds, 1 TD

21% of team targets · 5.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LV	LV 28	11	21	5:45	Fumble
2	ATL	LV 48	6	15	3:56	Punt
3	LV	LV 20	4	1	1:35	Punt
4	ATL	ATL 49	7	51	3:30	Touchdown +7
5	LV	LV 30	10	37	3:30	Field goal +3
6	ATL	ATL 20	11	42	5:27	Punt
7	LV	LV 3	2	-3	0:42	Safety
8	ATL	ATL 35	8	20	3:41	Punt
9	LV	LV 8	6	24	1:54	End of half
10	ATL	ATL 45	2	0	0:14	Interception
11	LV	LV 46	4	-2	2:33	Punt
12	ATL	LV 37	6	15	2:48	Field goal +3
13	LV	LV 30	7	20	1:41	Punt
14	ATL	ATL 8	6	31	3:29	Punt
15	LV	LV 3	4	8	2:15	Punt
16	ATL	LV 48	7	23	3:34	Field goal +3
17	LV	LV 30	6	11	1:05	Punt
18	ATL	ATL 26	5	39	2:41	Punt
19	LV	LV 9	2	-1	0:45	Interception
20	ATL	LV 39	6	15	3:28	Missed field goal
21	LV	LV 32	10	68	2:33	Touchdown +6
22	ATL	ATL 30	7	10	1:04	Punt
23	LV	LV 20	10	65	1:50	Interception

5 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Raiders gained 68 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kirk Cousins	11/17	112	1	1	3	-7.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Bijan Robinson	22	125	5.7	-0.2
Tyler Allgeier	12	43	3.6	-1.9
Kirk Cousins	3	0	0.0	-2.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Drake London	3	3	53	1	19%	7.1
Kyle Pitts	4	4	28	0	25%	0.3
Ray-Ray McCloud	1	3	14	0	19%	-0.4
Bijan Robinson	1	2	10	0	13%	0.5
Charlie Woerner	2	3	7	0	19%	-5.6
Darnell Mooney	0	1	0	0	6%	-1.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Kaden Elliss	6	5	1.0	0
Mike Hughes	7	0	0.0	1
Dee Alford	2	3	0.0	1
Lorenzo Carter	3	1	0.0	0
Zach Harrison	2	2	1.0	0
J.D. Bertrand	3	1	0.0	0
Grady Jarrett	2	2	0.0	0
Nate Landman	1	2	0.0	0
Kentavius Street	2	0	0.0	0
Demone Harris	2	0	0.0	1

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Desmond Ridder	23/39	208	1	2	3	-7.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Desmond Ridder	5	28	5.6	3.4
Alexander Mattison	7	21	3.0	-6.0
Ameer Abdullah	3	8	2.7	-1.3
Sincere McCormick	7	8	1.1	-4.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jakobi Meyers	5	9	59	0	26%	-1.2
Ameer Abdullah	7	7	58	1	21%	5.2
Brock Bowers	3	6	35	0	18%	-1.0
Tre Tucker	2	3	18	0	9%	0.3
Sincere McCormick	2	2	17	0	6%	0.2
Michael Mayer	1	2	11	0	6%	-0.2
Terrace Marshall	1	1	7	0	3%	0.4
Alexander Mattison	2	4	3	0	12%	-4.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Isaiah Pola-Mao	6	3	0.0	0	0
Robert Spillane	4	4	0.0	1	1
Divine Deablo	3	3	0.0	0	1
Adam Butler	3	3	1.0	0	1
Jonah Laulu	4	1	1.0	0	1
John Jenkins	1	4	0.0	0	0
Zach Carter	2	2	0.0	0	0
Tyree Wilson	3	1	1.0	0	0
Thomas Harper	2	2	0.0	0	0
Jack Jones	1	2	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: ATL -6.5
Closing total: 44.5
ATL moneyline: -345
LV moneyline: +275

Falcons closed -6.5, won by 6 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 24 — under by 20.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Allegiant Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: ATL 8 days · LV 8 days
Coaches: Raheem Morris vs Antonio Pierce