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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 15, 2024 · MetLife Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 15
It turned at Q1 14:14, 1st and 10, on Lamar Jackson — 9.5 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 14:14 · 1st and 10
Lamar Jackson
Giants
(14:14) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson right tackle to NYG 12 for 15 yards (21-A.Jackson; 24-D.Belton). FUMBLES (21-A.Jackson), RECOVERED by NYG-21-A.Jackson at NYG 12. 21-A.Jackson to NYG 12 for no gain (8-L.Jackson).
Baltimore Ravens 35–14 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 14:14, Giants +9.5% win probability on one snap.
9.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Ravens won this one — 9 of 11 on third down, against Giants at 2 of 12 on third down.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Ravens won this one — 60% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Giants at 32% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.85 expected points per dropback, against Giants at -0.23 expected points per dropback.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Ravens won this one — +0.44 expected points per snap, against Giants at -0.23 expected points per snap.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 15.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 52 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
(14:14) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson right tackle to NYG 12 for 15 yards (21-A.Jackson; 24-D.Belton). FUMBLES (21-A.Jackson), RECOVERED by NYG-21-A.Jackson at NYG 12. 21-A.Jackson to NYG 12 for no gain (8-L.Jackson).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Mark Andrews's 13-yard touchdown catch with 3:23 left in the 1st put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Mark Andrews13-yd TD catch13-yard touchdown catchfrom Lamar JacksonLead never changed again+77–07 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Ravenscategory by categoryGiants
Ravens ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.85 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 58 snaps at a 50% dropback rate against Giants’s 59 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 6, Giants 3.
Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.44 expected points added per play vs -0.23.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NYG's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 0.0% in week 14 against 62.5% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
8 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 22.4 points.
NYG's blitz rate sent turned over: 52.9% in week 14 against 24.1% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 15 pts
Over Expected room →Ravens-3.5 ptsinside their normal wobble · +4.2 vs their -7.7 pts, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+0.66× that swing) · 58 snaps
Giants3.8 ptsinside their normal wobble · +7.4 vs their -3.6 pts, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+1.00× that swing) · 59 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 13% to 83%
Tendencies room →Ravens53.2%right on their number · +6.1 vs their 47.1%, and they swing ±13.2 week to week (+0.46× that swing) · 47 early downs
Giants61.9%right on their number · +4.1 vs their 57.8%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (+0.44× that swing) · 42 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 55%
Tendencies room →Ravens27.6%right on their number · +2.1 vs their 25.4%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (+0.18× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Giants30.0%inside their normal wobble · +6.0 vs their 24.0%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (+0.58× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29% to 109%
Fourth Down room →Ravens—Only 0 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 40.0%.
Giants62.5%leaned — went for it · +22.7 vs their 39.8%, and they swing ±22.4 week to week (+1.02× that swing) · 8 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 61%
Tendencies room →Ravens27.5%right on their number · +4.8 vs their 22.7%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (+0.41× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Giants24.1%right on their number · −5.1 vs their 29.2%, and they swing ±12.2 week to week (−0.41× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 34%
Tendencies room →Ravens17.5%right on their number · +0.8 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+0.16× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Giants13.8%right on their number · −1.1 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.14× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
NYG's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 62.5%, 22.7 points above their season mean of 39.8% and 1.0 times their own 22.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
New York Giants
48 dressed · 6 inactive
Inactive · 6
Who moved the needle
Passing · BAL
21/25, 290 yds, 5 TD, 0 INT
24.6 expected points added · +24.2% completion over expected
Passing · NYG
12/24, 123 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-7.4 expected points added · -9.5% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Lamar Jackson banked 17.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar JacksonQB · Starter QB | 36.1 | +17.8 | 83% | — | 0% | — | 21/25, 290 yd, 5 TD · 6 car, 65 yd |
| Malik NabersWR · Alpha Receiver | 24.2 | +0.2 | 94% | 98% | 41% | 43% | 10/14, 82 yd, 1 TD |
| Rashod BatemanWR · Featured Receiver | 23.0 | +11.8 | 76% | 83% | 21% | 43% | 3/5, 80 yd, 2 TD |
| Justice HillRB · Receiving Back | 17.8 | +8.8 | 37% | 59% | 21% | 0% | 2 car, 7 yd · 5/5, 61 yd, 1 TD |
| Devin SingletaryRB · Committee Back | 13.1 | +1.7 | 34% | 33% | 9% | 0% | 8 car, 25 yd, 1 TD · 3/3, 16 yd |
| Zay FlowersWR · Alpha Receiver | 11.3 | +0.4 | 81% | 93% | 29% | 22% | 6/7, 53 yd |
| Mark AndrewsTE · Rotational Receiver | 10.4 | +5.3 | 66% | 83% | 8% | 9% | 2/2, 24 yd, 1 TD |
| Devontez WalkerWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.1 | +5.8 | 19% | 7% | 4% | 8% | 1/1, 21 yd, 1 TD |
| Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · Alpha Receiver | 7.8 | −6.7 | 76% | 78% | 26% | 40% | 4/9, 38 yd |
| Tim BoyleQB · Starter QB | 6.8 | −3.6 | 53% | — | 0% | — | 12/24, 123 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 1 car, -1 yd |
| Derrick HenryRB · Committee Back | 6.7 | −3.5 | 46% | 34% | 0% | — | 14 car, 67 yd |
| Daniel BellingerTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.5 | +2.4 | 68% | 73% | 9% | 9% | 3/3, 35 yd |
| Tyrone TracyRB · Committee Back | 4.5 | −7.7 | 68% | 70% | 12% | 2% | 10 car, 31 yd · 1/4, 4 yd |
| Isaiah LikelyTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.7 | +0.8 | 66% | 59% | 8% | 3% | 2/2, 17 yd |
| Nelson AgholorWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.6 | +1.5 | 29% | 31% | 4% | 9% | 1/1, 26 yd |
| Rasheen AliRB | 3.2 | −1.1 | 17% | 3% | 0% | — | 8 car, 32 yd |
| Tommy DeVitoQB · Starter QB | 2.7 | −0.7 | 47% | — | 0% | — | 10/13, 68 yd · 1 car, 0 yd |
| Darius SlaytonWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | +1.2 | 68% | 65% | 3% | 4% | 1/1, 16 yd |
| Tylan WallaceWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.7 | 24% | 14% | 4% | 2% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| Greg DulcichTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Josh JohnsonQB | -0.1 | 0.0 | 17% | — | 0% | — | 1 car, -1 yd |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(14:14) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson right tackle to NYG 12 for 15 yards (21-A.Jackson; 24-D.Belton). FUMBLES (21-A.Jackson), RECOVERED by NYG-21-A.Jackson at NYG 12. 21-A.Jackson to NYG 12 for no gain (8-L.Jackson).
Q1 14:14 · Ravens · 1st & 10 at NYG 27 · gained 15 · -4.71 EP · −14.4% win probability
154 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 166 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 154 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 161. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 98 yards from the BAL 2 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Ravens6
Giants0Ravens7Giants0How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
Ravens13Giants0Ravens14Giants0Ravens14Giants6Ravens14Giants7Ravens20Giants7Ravens21Giants7Ravens27Giants7Ravens28Giants7Ravens34Giants7Ravens35Giants7Ravens35Giants13Ravens35Giants14Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Ravens at Giants, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 21/25 | 290 | 5 | 0 | 2 | +24.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 14 | 67 | 4.8 | 0 | +2.4 |
| Lamar Jackson | 6 | 65 | 10.8 | 0 | −1.7 |
| Rasheen Ali | 8 | 32 | 4.0 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashod Bateman | 3 | 5 | 80 | 2 | 21% | +8.2 |
| Justice Hill | 5 | 5 | 61 | 1 | 21% | +6.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Harrison | 2 | 6 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Hamilton | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ar'Darius Washington | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Roquan Smith |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Boyle | 12/24 | 123 | 1 | 1 | 1 | −7.4 |
| Tommy DeVito | 10/13 | 68 | 0 | 0 | 2 | −1.7 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_15_BAL_NYG
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Ravens closed -16.5 and covered, winning by 21.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 49 — over by 5.5.
Conditions and crew
| Justice Hill | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Josh Johnson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | −3.7 |
| Zay Flowers | 6 | 7 | 53 | 0 | 29% | +2.8 |
| Nelson Agholor | 1 | 1 | 26 | 0 | 4% | +1.6 |
| Mark Andrews | 2 | 2 | 24 | 1 | 8% | +4.3 |
| Devontez Walker | 1 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 4% | +2.9 |
| Isaiah Likely | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 8% | +1.6 |
| Tylan Wallace | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 4% | +0.3 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Travis Jones | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nate Wiggins | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Marlon Humphrey | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tavius Robinson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Van Noy | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre'Davious White | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrone Tracy | 10 | 31 | 3.1 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Devin Singletary | 8 | 25 | 3.1 | 1 | −0.4 |
| Tommy DeVito | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −3.5 |
| Tim Boyle | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Nabers | 10 | 14 | 82 | 1 | 41% | −1.0 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 4 | 9 | 38 | 0 | 26% | −2.9 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 | 9% | +1.9 |
| Devin Singletary | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 9% | +0.3 |
| Darius Slayton | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 3% | +1.9 |
| Tyrone Tracy | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 12% | −3.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dane Belton | 7 | 8 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Micah McFadden | 7 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Pinnock | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darius Muasau | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adoree' Jackson | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Greg Stroman | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Art Green | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elijah Garcia | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordon Riley | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cory Durden | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
