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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 1:10 AM ET · 16 to play
Buffalo Bills 48, Lions 42 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 1:47, 4th and 6, on Tyler Bass — 10.9 win-probability points to the Lions on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 1:47 · 4th and 6
Tyler Bass
Lions
(1:47) 2-T.Bass 24 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Dome
Lions closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Buffalo Bills 48–42. Biggest swing: Q2 1:47, Lions +10.9% win probability on one snap.
10.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Ty JohnsonBillsQ2 10:23(10:23) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 26-Ty.Johnson pushed ob at DET 20 for 31 yards (31-K.Joseph).
10.1pts
Keon ColemanBillsQ2 3:01(3:01) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 0-K.Coleman to DET 6 for 64 yards (30-K.Dorsey; 0-T.Arnold). PENALTY on DET-10-K.Alexander, Roughing the Passer, 3 yards, enforced at DET 6.
10.3pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Bills won this one — +0.33 expected points per carry, against Lions at -0.29 expected points per carry.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Bills won this one — 12 chunk plays, against Lions at 8 chunk plays.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bills won this one — +0.48 expected points per snap, against Lions at +0.26 expected points per snap.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Bills won this one — 57% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Lions at 49% of snaps stayed on schedule.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bills.
MarketModelmodel higher on Lionshigher on Bills189 of 200 plays carry both curves
(1:47) 2-T.Bass 24 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Swing +10.9 for LionsExpected points +4.04 for LionsThe model had Bills 2 points higher than the market did.play 77
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 1:47BUF +11% win prob(1:47) 2-T.Bass 24 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
2nd · 3:01DET +10% win prob(3:01) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 0-K.Coleman to DET 6 for 64 yards (30-K.Dorsey; 0-T.Arnold). PENALTY on DET-10-K.Alexander, Roughing the Passer, 3 yards, enforced at DET 6.
2nd · 10:23DET +10% win prob(10:23) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 26-Ty.Johnson pushed ob at DET 20 for 31 yards (31-K.Joseph).
3rd · 13:20DET +10% win prob(13:20) (Shotgun) 4-J.Cook left tackle for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 5:55DET +9% win prob(5:55) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 14-A.St. Brown to BUF 25 for 21 yards (39-C.Lewis).
2nd · 0:42BUF +9% win prob(:42) 39-J.Bates 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Josh Allen's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 10:58 left in the 1st put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 13 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:58Josh Allen·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–0
4th2:06Tyler Bass·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap R.Ferguson+348–35
4th0:16Jameson Williams·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+748–42
14 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Billscategory by categoryLions
Bills7–1Lions
560Total yards521
8.4Yards per play6.9
57%Success rate49%
50%Third-down rate46%
5Red-zone touchdowns5
12Explosive plays8
26First downs31
0Sacks taken3
0Turnovers1
The read
Bills ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.60 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.48Bills: +0.48 expected points added per play
+0.26Lions: +0.26 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.60Bills: +0.60 expected points added per play
+0.37Lions: +0.37 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.33Bills: +0.33 expected points added per play
−0.29Lions: −0.29 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 67 snaps at a 55% dropback rate against Lions’s 75 at 83%. Red-zone trips: Bills 8, Lions 6.
NoteBills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.48 expected points added per play vs 0.26.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
DET's early-down pass rate, 79.7%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 4.7 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 63.3% in week 2.
3.0 times their own weekly swing above their number.
59 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.4 points.
DET's sack or hit rate turned over: 29.2% in week 14 against 8.1% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 3.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points.
BUF's early-down pass rate turned over: 75.6% in week 14 against 51.8% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
56 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 19 pts
right on their number · +1.3 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±4.1 week to week (+0.30× that swing) · 62 dropbacks
Lions8.1%
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.4 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−1.14× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
NoteDET's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 79.7%, 30.8 points above their season mean of 48.9% and 3.0 times their own 10.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bills←Lions→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Tyler Bass−10% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(1:47) 2-T.Bass 24 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Q2 1:47 · Bills · 4th & goal at DET 6 · gained nothing · -4.04 EP · −10.5% win probability
187 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 200 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 187 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 195. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
14 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 80 yards from the BUF 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
200 of 200 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
200
EPA per play
+0.26
Success rate
55%
Yards
1080
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR56+0.2888%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33+0.5852%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.5790%
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9+0.5811%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.4256%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9+0.0244%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+0.5040%
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Bills0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR1——
Bills0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Bills2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
200 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
200 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Bills6Lions0
Bills7Lions0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bills 27 to the Lions 1
Punt7 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Lions 41
Bills13Lions0
Bills14Lions0
Touchdown10 plays, from the Bills 22 to the Lions 4
The period ended6 plays, from the Lions 30 to midfield
2nd quarter54 plays
Bills14Lions6
Bills14Lions7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Bills 26 to the Bills 12
Bills20Lions7
Bills21Lions7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Lions 6
Bills21Lions13
Bills21Lions14
Touchdown12 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Bills 9
No good9 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Lions 1
No good7 plays, from the Lions 20 to the Bills 34
The period ended8 plays, from the Bills 42 to the Lions 48
3rd quarter43 plays
Bills27Lions14
Bills28Lions14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Lions 41
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Lions 33
Punt9 plays, from the Bills 8 to the Bills 45
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Lions 4 to the Lions 29
Bills34Lions14
Bills35Lions14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Lions 26 to the Lions 3
Bills35Lions20
Bills35Lions21
Touchdown8 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Lions 41
The period ended5 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Bills 37
4th quarter65 plays
Bills38Lions21
Field goal5 plays, from the Lions 35 to the Lions 32
Bills38Lions27
Bills38Lions28
Touchdown7 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Bills 12
Bills44Lions28
Bills45Lions28
Touchdown3 plays
Bills45Lions34
Bills45Lions35
Touchdown14 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Bills 1
Bills48Lions35
Field goal13 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Lions 10
Bills48Lions41
Bills48Lions42
Touchdown20 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Bills 3
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Lions -2.5
Closing total
55.5
Bills moneyline
+110
Lions moneyline
-130
Lions closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 55.5; the game landed 90 — over by 34.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Ford Field
Roof / surface
dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Adrian Hill
Rest
Bills 7 days · Lions 10 days
Coaches
Sean McDermott vs Dan Campbell
1st · 11:49
DET +9% win prob
(11:49) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 26-Ty.Johnson to DET 6 for 24 yards (31-K.Joseph) [47-E.Turner].
3rd · 5:17BUF +6% win prob(5:17) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 14-A.St. Brown to DET 47 for 18 yards (47-C.Benford). FUMBLES (47-C.Benford), RECOVERED by BUF-58-M.Milano at DET 41. PENALTY on DET-60-G.Glasgow, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at DET 41.
