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2024 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 15, 2024 · Ford Field

Buffalo BillsWinner

48

Detroit Lions

42

DET -2.5 upsetO 55.5 ✓Dome

Buffalo Bills 48–42. Biggest swing: Q2 1:47, BUF +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3DET ↑BUF ↓
Q2 · 1:47BUF 21 — DET 14BUF ball · 4th & 6BUF 80%

(1:47) 2-T.Bass 24 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 1:47BUF +11% win prob(1:47) 2-T.Bass 24 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
  2. Q2 · 3:01DET +10% win prob(3:01) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 0-K.Coleman to DET 6 for 64 yards (30-K.Dorsey; 0-T.Arnold). PENALTY on DET-10-K.Alexander, Roughing the Passer, 3 yards, enforced at DET 6.
  3. Q2 · 10:23DET +10% win prob(10:23) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 26-Ty.Johnson pushed ob at DET 20 for 31 yards (31-K.Joseph).
  4. Q3 · 13:20DET +10% win prob(13:20) (Shotgun) 4-J.Cook left tackle for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 10:58BUF Touchdown

    (10:58) (No Huddle) 17-J.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BUF 7 — DET 0
  2. Q1 · 2:05BUF Touchdown

    (2:05) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen right tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BUF 14 — DET 0
  3. Q2 · 13:45DET Touchdown

    (13:45) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 17-T.Patrick for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BUF 14 — DET 7
  4. Q2 · 8:19BUF Touchdown

    (8:19) (Shotgun) 4-J.Cook left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BUF 21 — DET 7
  5. Q2 · 3:08DET Touchdown

    (3:08) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 16-J.Goff pass short left to 70-D.Skipper for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BUF 21 — DET 14
  6. Q3 · 13:20BUF Touchdown

    (13:20) (Shotgun) 4-J.Cook left tackle for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BUF 28 — DET 14
  7. Q3 · 3:34BUF Touchdown

    (3:34) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 10-K.Shakir for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BUF 35 — DET 14
  8. Q3 · 1:52DET Touchdown

    (1:52) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 14-A.St. Brown for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BUF 35 — DET 21
  9. Q4 · 14:06BUF Field goal

    (14:06) 2-T.Bass 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

    Score after this play: BUF 38 — DET 21
  10. Q4 · 12:09DET Touchdown

    (12:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 26-J.Gibbs for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BUF 38 — DET 28
  11. Q4 · 11:55BUF Touchdown

    (11:55) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 22-R.Davis for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BUF 45 — DET 28
  12. Q4 · 8:07DET Touchdown

    (8:07) (Shotgun) 26-J.Gibbs up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BUF 45 — DET 35
  13. Q4 · 2:06BUF Field goal

    (2:06) 2-T.Bass 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

    Score after this play: BUF 48 — DET 35
  14. Q4 · 0:16DET Touchdown

    (:16) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 9-Ja.Williams for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BUF 48 — DET 42

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBillsLions
Offensive plays6775
Total yards560 (edge)521
Yards per play8.4 (edge)6.9
Expected points added / play0.48 (edge)0.26
Success rate57% (edge)49%
Dropback rate55%83%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.60 (edge)0.37
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.33 (edge)-0.29
Third downs5/10 (edge)6/13
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)12 (edge)8
First downs gained on snaps2631 (edge)
Sacks taken0 (edge)3
Turnovers0 (edge)1

Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.48 expected points added per play vs 0.26.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DET

Jared GoffQB

38/59, 494 yds, 5 TD, 0 INT

28.0 expected points added · -1.3% completion over expected

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

23/34, 362 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

19.9 expected points added · +5.2% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

James CookRB

14 att, 105 yds, 2 TD

6.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

11 att, 68 yds, 2 TD

6.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DET

Amon-Ra St. BrownWR

14/18 for 193 yds, 1 TD

33% of team targets · 13.2 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

Ty JohnsonRB

5/5 for 114 yds, 0 TD

16% of team targets · 12.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1DETDET 30500:58Punt
2BUFBUF 278733:06Touchdown +7
3DETDET 30733:12Punt
4BUFBUF 2210785:43Touchdown +7
5DETDET 3011703:25Touchdown +7
6BUFBUF 3011805:21Touchdown +7
7DETDET 3012705:14Touchdown +7
8BUFBUF 306661:18Missed field goal
9DETDET 207461:07Missed field goal
10BUFBUF 425280:36End of half
11BUFBUF 306701:49Touchdown +7
12DETDET 305-51:55Punt
13BUFBUF 89374:13Punt
14DETDET 44371:55Fumble
15BUFDET 266231:37Touchdown +7
16DETDET 307801:50Touchdown +7
17BUFBUF 308382:39Field goal +3
18DETDET 307702:02Touchdown +7
19BUFDET 5350:09Touchdown +7
20DETDET 3013803:49Touchdown +7
21BUFBUF 3011625:59Field goal +3
22DETDET 3018701:51Touchdown +7
23BUFDET 46200:12End of game

14 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 80 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Josh Allen23/3436220019.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
James Cook141057.526.4
Josh Allen11686.226.0
Ray Davis7152.10-2.1
Ty Johnson294.500.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Ty Johnson55114016%12.0
Keon Coleman126406%3.6
Dalton Kincaid4753022%0.9
Dawson Knox234209%2.6
Khalil Shakir6739122%0.3
James Cook112803%2.0
Ray Davis221416%2.4
Mack Hollins13709%-1.8
Curtis Samuel12106%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Terrel Bernard360.000
Taron Johnson530.001
Cameron Lewis420.000
Kaiir Elam410.001
Christian Benford411.001
Cole Bishop410.000
Gregory Rousseau311.000
Ed Oliver311.000
Kareem Jackson120.000
Baylon Spector120.000

Detroit Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jared Goff38/5949450328.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jahmyr Gibbs8313.910.3
Jared Goff2136.501.4
David Montgomery540.80-4.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Amon-Ra St. Brown1418193133%13.2
Sam LaPorta710111019%4.8
Jahmyr Gibbs5783113%5.0
Jameson Williams353719%2.8
David Montgomery443107%1.2
Tim Patrick4830115%0.6
Dan Skipper11912%2.0
Allen Robinson01002%-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Brian Branch860.001
Jack Campbell730.001
Kerby Joseph520.000
Ben Niemann230.001
Ezekiel Turner310.000
Terrion Arnold220.001
Kindle Vildor120.001
Craig Reynolds110.000
Levi Onwuzurike110.000
Sione Vaki200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
DET -2.5
Closing total
55.5
BUF moneyline
+110
DET moneyline
-130

Lions closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 55.5; the game landed 90 — over by 34.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Ford Field
Roof / surface
dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Adrian Hill
Rest
BUF 7 days · DET 10 days
Coaches
Sean McDermott vs Dan Campbell