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2024 Week 15 · Mon, Dec 16, 2024 · U.S. Bank Stadium

Chicago Bears

12

Minnesota VikingsWinner

30

MIN -7 ✓U 43.5 ✓Dome

Minnesota Vikings 30–12 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 7:42, CHI +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3MIN ↑CHI ↓
Q1 · 7:42CHI 0 — MIN 3CHI ball · 3rd & 9MIN 74%

(7:42) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams sacked at MIN 38 for -9 yards (58-J.Greenard). FUMBLES (58-J.Greenard) [58-J.Greenard], RECOVERED by MIN-51-B.Cashman at MIN 45. 51-B.Cashman to CHI 39 for 16 yards (20-T.Homer).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 7:42CHI +12% win prob(7:42) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams sacked at MIN 38 for -9 yards (58-J.Greenard). FUMBLES (58-J.Greenard) [58-J.Greenard], RECOVERED by MIN-51-B.Cashman at MIN 45. 51-B.Cashman to CHI 39 for 16 yards (20-T.Homer).
  2. Q1 · 13:02CHI +6% win prob(13:02) 4-D.Swift left end to CHI 39 for no gain (58-J.Greenard; 99-J.Tillery).
  3. Q2 · 2:39CHI +4% win prob(2:39) 4-D.Swift up the middle to MIN 29 for no gain (51-B.Cashman).
  4. Q2 · 9:43CHI +3% win prob(9:43) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 18-J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 29-T.Stevenson at CHI 16. 29-T.Stevenson to CHI 16 for no gain (18-J.Jefferson).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 12:09MIN Field goal

    (12:09) 16-W.Reichard 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

    Score after this play: CHI 0 — MIN 3
  2. Q1 · 5:09MIN Touchdown

    (5:09) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 0 — MIN 10
  3. Q2 · 0:08MIN Field goal

    (:08) 16-W.Reichard 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

    Score after this play: CHI 0 — MIN 13
  4. Q3 · 7:05CHI Field goal

    (7:05) 8-C.Santos 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

    Score after this play: CHI 3 — MIN 13
  5. Q3 · 1:40MIN Touchdown

    (1:40) 33-A.Jones right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 3 — MIN 20
  6. Q4 · 13:04CHI Field goal

    (13:04) 8-C.Santos 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

    Score after this play: CHI 6 — MIN 20
  7. Q4 · 10:19MIN Touchdown

    (10:19) 27-C.Akers right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI-29-T.Stevenson was injured during the play. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 6 — MIN 27
  8. Q4 · 5:24CHI Touchdown

    (5:24) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep middle to 13-K.Allen for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: CHI 12 — MIN 27
  9. Q4 · 1:16MIN Field goal

    (1:16) 16-W.Reichard 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. ** Injury Update: MIN-17-R.Wright has returned to the game.

    Score after this play: CHI 12 — MIN 30

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBearsVikings
Offensive plays6371
Total yards285329 (edge)
Yards per play4.54.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.210.03 (edge)
Success rate38%51% (edge)
Dropback rate59%59%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.190.07 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.24-0.02 (edge)
Third downs1/127/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)5 (edge)4
First downs gained on snaps1622 (edge)
Sacks taken22
Turnovers11

Vikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.21.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIN

Sam DarnoldQB

24/40, 231 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

2.9 expected points added · -4.5% completion over expected

Passing · CHI

Caleb WilliamsQB

18/31, 191 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-4.3 expected points added · -5.7% completion over expected

Rushing · MIN

Aaron JonesRB

18 att, 86 yds, 1 TD

0.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CHI

D'Andre SwiftRB

19 att, 79 yds, 0 TD

-6.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CHI

Keenan AllenWR

6/13 for 82 yds, 1 TD

42% of team targets · 5.2 expected points added

Receiving · MIN

Justin JeffersonWR

7/14 for 73 yds, 1 TD

38% of team targets · -3.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CHICHI 30592:03Turnover on downs
2MINCHI 39450:53Field goal +3
3CHICHI 309254:30Fumble
4MINCHI 396392:30Touchdown +7
5CHICHI 307132:51Punt
6MINMIN 915787:38Interception
7CHICHI 1611607:00Turnover on downs
8MINMIN 2913582:31Field goal +3
9CHICHI 30200:04End of half
10MINMIN 30551:13Punt
11CHICHI 206342:08Punt
12MINMIN 5470:59Punt
13CHICHI 429623:38Field goal +3
14MINMIN 3014725:24Touchdown +7
15CHICHI 3011493:38Field goal +3
16MINMIN 309402:46Touchdown +7
17CHICHI 305-22:08Punt
18MINMIN 406111:53Punt
19CHIMIN 277270:54Touchdown +6
20MINCHI 428144:07Field goal +3
21CHICHI 30481:12End of game

9 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Vikings gained 78 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a interception.

Full stat lines

Box score

Chicago Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Caleb Williams18/31191102-4.3
Tyson Bagent1/15000-0.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
D'Andre Swift19794.20-6.5
D.J. Moore3248.001.4
Travis Homer372.30-0.6
Caleb Williams430.80-3.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Keenan Allen61382142%5.2
D.J. Moore8846026%-0.9
Rome Odunze2739023%-0.6
Cole Kmet111403%1.0
D'Andre Swift111003%0.6
Tyler Scott11503%-0.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
T.J. Edwards531.000
Tremaine Edmunds510.000
Kevin Byard420.001
Jonathan Ford140.000
Kyler Gordon410.000
Zacch Pickens230.000
Jonathan Owens400.000
Tyrique Stevenson400.012
Jaylon Johnson200.000
Elijah Hicks110.000

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Sam Darnold24/402311122.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Aaron Jones18864.810.4
Cam Akers10242.41-1.9
Ty Chandler144.000.9

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Justin Jefferson71473138%-3.3
Jordan Addison7963024%2.8
T.J. Hockenson5752019%4.1
Aaron Jones232008%2.6
Brandon Powell111203%2.0
Trent Sherfield11603%1.2
Jalen Nailor11503%0.3
Johnny Mundt01003%-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Josh Metellus620.000
Blake Cashman610.000
Jonathan Greenard331.000
Camryn Bynum310.000
Jonathan Bullard220.000
Patrick Jones120.000
Harrison Smith300.002
Dallas Turner211.000
Shaquill Griffin300.000
Andrew Van Ginkel110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
MIN -7
Closing total
43.5
CHI moneyline
+260
MIN moneyline
-325

Vikings closed -7 and covered, winning by 18.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 42 — under by 1.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
CHI 8 days · MIN 8 days
Coaches
Matt Eberflus vs Kevin O'Connell

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.