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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
2024 Week 15 · Mon, Dec 16, 2024 · U.S. Bank Stadium
Final
BearsChicago12
BY 18final margin
VikingsMinnesota30
Chicago Bears 12 at Minnesota Vikings 30. Final.
Vikings -7 ✓U 43.5 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 15
Minnesota Vikings 30, Bears 12 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 7:42, 3rd and 9, on Caleb Williams — 12.4 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 7:42 · 3rd and 9
Caleb Williams
Vikings
(7:42) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams sacked at MIN 38 for -9 yards (58-J.Greenard). FUMBLES (58-J.Greenard) [58-J.Greenard], RECOVERED by MIN-51-B.Cashman at MIN 45. 51-B.Cashman to CHI 39 for 16 yards (20-T.Homer).
Dome
Vikings closed -7 and covered, winning by 18.
Minnesota Vikings 30–12 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 7:42, Vikings +12.4% win probability on one snap.
12.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
D'Andre SwiftVikingsQ1 13:02(13:02) 4-D.Swift left end to CHI 39 for no gain (58-J.Greenard; 99-J.Tillery).
5.8pts
D'Andre SwiftVikingsQ2 2:39(2:39) 4-D.Swift up the middle to MIN 29 for no gain (51-B.Cashman).
3.6pts
What separated them
Third down
Vikings won this one — 7 of 14 on third down, against Bears at 1 of 12 on third down.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Vikings won this one — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bears at 38% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Vikings won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Bears at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Vikings won this one — +0.03 expected points per snap, against Bears at -0.21 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Vikingshigher on Bears180 of 191 plays carry both curves
(7:42) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams sacked at MIN 38 for -9 yards (58-J.Greenard). FUMBLES (58-J.Greenard) [58-J.Greenard], RECOVERED by MIN-51-B.Cashman at MIN 45. 51-B.Cashman to CHI 39 for 16 yards (20-T.Homer).
Swing +12.4 for VikingsExpected points +6.79 for VikingsThe model had Bears 15 points higher than the market did.play 19
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 7:42CHI +12% win prob(7:42) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams sacked at MIN 38 for -9 yards (58-J.Greenard). FUMBLES (58-J.Greenard) [58-J.Greenard], RECOVERED by MIN-51-B.Cashman at MIN 45. 51-B.Cashman to CHI 39 for 16 yards (20-T.Homer).
1st · 13:02CHI +6% win prob(13:02) 4-D.Swift left end to CHI 39 for no gain (58-J.Greenard; 99-J.Tillery).
2nd · 2:39CHI +4% win prob(2:39) 4-D.Swift up the middle to MIN 29 for no gain (51-B.Cashman).
2nd · 9:43CHI +3% win prob(9:43) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 18-J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 29-T.Stevenson at CHI 16. 29-T.Stevenson to CHI 16 for no gain (18-J.Jefferson).
1st · 12:00MIN +3% win prob(12:00) (Shotgun) 2-D.Moore right end pushed ob at CHI 39 for 9 yards (24-C.Bynum).
1st · 9:15MIN +3% win prob(9:15) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 15-R.Odunze to MIN 30 for 10 yards (24-C.Bynum; 91-P.Jones).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Will Reichard's 52-yard field goal with 12:09 left in the 1st put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st12:09Will Reichard·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder R.Wright · snap A.DePaolaLead never changed again+30–3
1st5:09Justin Jefferson·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam Darnoldfrom Sam Darnold+70–10
2nd0:08Will Reichard·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder R.Wright · snap A.DePaola+30–13
3rd7:05Cairo Santos·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder T.Taylor · snap S.Daly+33–13
4th5:24Keenan Allen·16-yd TD catch16-yard touchdown catchfrom Caleb Williamsfrom Caleb Williams · two-point no good+612–27
4th1:16Will Reichard·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder R.Wright · snap A.DePaola+312–30
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bearscategory by categoryVikings
Bears1–6Vikings
285Total yards329
4.5Yards per play4.6
38%Success rate51%
8%Third-down rate50%
1Red-zone touchdowns3
5Explosive plays4
16First downs22
2Sacks taken2
1Turnovers1
The read
Vikings ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.21Bears: −0.21 expected points added per play
+0.03Vikings: +0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.19Bears: −0.19 expected points added per play
+0.07Vikings: +0.07 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.24Bears: −0.24 expected points added per play
−0.02Vikings: −0.02 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bears ran 63 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Vikings’s 71 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Bears 3, Vikings 4.
NoteVikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.21.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CHI's blitz rate sent turned over: 39.3% in week 14 against 19.0% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 16 pts
right on their number · +1.8 vs their 17.3%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (+0.31× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Vikings8.1%
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.2 vs their 16.3%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−1.34× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
NoteMIN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 8.1%, 8.2 points below their season mean of 16.3% and 1.3 times their own 6.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Chicago Bears
48 dressed · 6 inactive
79Matt PryorT · Every snap100%67 snaps
72Kiran AmegadjieT · Every snap100%67 snaps
58Darnell WrightT · Full-time96%64 snaps
65Coleman SheltonC · Full-time96%64 snaps
76Teven JenkinsT · Full-time96%64 snaps
18Caleb WilliamsQB · Full-time96%64 snaps
85Cole KmetTE · Full-time93%62 snaps
2DJ MooreWR · Full-time87%58 snaps
13Keenan AllenWR · Full-time82%55 snaps
15Rome OdunzeWR · Heavy rotation79%53 snaps
4D'Andre SwiftRB · Heavy rotation69%46 snaps
20Travis HomerRB · Rotational25%17 snaps
84Marcedes LewisTE · Rotational25%17 snaps
80Collin JohnsonWR · Situational16%11 snaps
14Gerald EverettTE · Situational16%11 snaps
68Doug KramerC · Situational6%4 snaps
10Tyler ScottWR · Situational6%4 snaps
73Jake CurhanT · Situational4%3 snaps
75Larry BoromT · Situational4%3 snaps
17Tyson BagentQB · Situational4%3 snaps
Inactive · 6
Ryan BatesCAmeer SpeedCBGervon Dexter Sr.DTNoah SewellILBRoschon JohnsonRBBraxton JonesT
Minnesota Vikings
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
74Cam RobinsonT · Every snap100%77 snaps
66Dalton RisnerG · Every snap100%77 snaps
64Blake BrandelG · Every snap100%77 snaps
56Garrett BradburyC · Every snap100%77 snaps
14Sam DarnoldQB · Every snap100%77 snaps
18Justin JeffersonWR · Full-time88%68 snaps
3Jordan AddisonWR · Full-time86%66 snaps
75Brian O'NeillT · Full-time82%63 snaps
87T.J. HockensonTE · Heavy rotation65%50 snaps
33Aaron JonesRB · Heavy rotation61%47 snaps
83Jalen NailorWR · Heavy rotation53%41 snaps
84Josh OliverTE · Rotational47%36 snaps
27Cam AkersRB · Rotational27%21 snaps
86Johnny MundtTE · Rotational26%20 snaps
30C.J. HamFB · Situational21%16 snaps
76David QuessenberryT · Situational18%14 snaps
11Trent SherfieldWR · Situational16%12 snaps
4Brandon PowellWR · Situational9%7 snaps
32Ty ChandlerRB · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 5
Dan FeeneyCStephon GilmoreCBLevi Drake RodriguezDEBrett RypienQBWalter RouseT
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Bears attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bears←Vikings→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Williams sacked−18% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(7:42) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams sacked at MIN 38 for -9 yards (58-J.Greenard). FUMBLES (58-J.Greenard) [58-J.Greenard], RECOVERED by MIN-51-B.Cashman at MIN 45. 51-B.Cashman to CHI 39 for 16 yards (20-T.Homer).
Q1 7:42 · Bears · 3rd & 9 at MIN 29 · lost 16 · -6.79 EP · −18.3% win probability
178 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 191 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 178 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 186. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 80 yards from the MIN 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, CHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
191 of 191 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
191
EPA per play
-0.05
Success rate
46%
Yards
613
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.1870%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39-0.0282%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR25+0.1124%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.1931%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.1050%
Bears0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR4——
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Bears1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Vikings2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
191 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
191 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Bears 30 to the Bears 39
Bears0Vikings3
Field goal4 plays, from the Bears 39 to the Bears 34
How the play was built
A man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFive linebackers and six backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost9 plays, from the Bears 30 to the Vikings 29
Bears0Vikings9
Bears0Vikings10
Touchdown6 plays, from the Bears 39 to the Bears 7
Punt7 plays, from the Bears 30 to the Bears 43
The period ended6 plays, from the Vikings 9 to the Vikings 20
2nd quarter47 plays
Intercepted12 plays, from the Vikings 30 to the Bears 23
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Bears 16 to the Vikings 29
Bears0Vikings13
Field goal19 plays, from the Vikings 29 to the Bears 13
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter52 plays
Punt7 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Bears 44
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 5 to the Vikings 12
Bears3Vikings13
Field goal11 plays, from the Bears 42 to the Vikings 1
Bears3Vikings19
Bears3Vikings20
Touchdown16 plays, from the Vikings 30 to the Bears 1
The period ended7 plays, from the Bears 30 to the Vikings 43
4th quarter54 plays
Bears6Vikings20
Field goal7 plays, from the Vikings 37 to the Vikings 16
Bears6Vikings26
Bears6Vikings27
Touchdown10 plays, from the Vikings 30 to the Bears 1
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 30 to the Bears 37
The period ended10 plays, from the Vikings 40 to the Bears 41
Bears12Vikings27
Touchdown8 plays, from the Vikings 27 to the Vikings 16
Bears12Vikings30
Field goal9 plays, from the Bears 42 to the Bears 28
The period ended5 plays, from the Bears 30 to the Bears 36
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Vikings -7
Closing total
43.5
Bears moneyline
+260
Vikings moneyline
-325
Vikings closed -7 and covered, winning by 18.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 42 — under by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
Bears 8 days · Vikings 8 days
Coaches
Matt Eberflus vs Kevin O'Connell
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
3rd · 7:37
CHI +2% win prob
(7:37) 68-D.Kramer reported in as eligible. 4-D.Swift left guard to MIN 3 for -2 yards (44-J.Metellus). PENALTY on CHI-72-K.Amegadjie, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 1 - No Play.
1st · 0:38MIN +2% win prob(:38) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 33-A.Jones to MIN 30 for 17 yards (36-J.Owens) [95-D.Walker].
Bearscategory by categoryVikings
Bears0
Vikings3
