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Cincinnati Bengals 37 at Tennessee Titans 27. Final.
Bengals -6 ✓O 46.5 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 15
Cincinnati Bengals 37, Titans 27 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 14:08, 2nd and 9, on Joe Burrow — 16.3 win-probability points to the Titans on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 14:08 · 2nd and 9
Joe Burrow
Titans
(14:08) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at TEN 11 for -2 yards (58-H.Landry). FUMBLES (58-H.Landry) [58-H.Landry], RECOVERED by TEN-93-T.Sweat at TEN 11. 93-T.Sweat pushed ob at TEN 41 for 30 yards (67-C.Volson; 71-A.Mims). Fumble Forced by 93-T.Sweat.
Bengals closed -6 and covered, winning by 10.
Cincinnati Bengals 37–27. Biggest swing: Q2 14:08, Titans +16.3% win probability on one snap.
16.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Tyler BoydTitansQ1 4:53(4:53) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass short left to 83-T.Boyd to CIN 29 for 40 yards (29-C.Taylor-Britt).
11.7pts
Tee HigginsBengalsQ2 1:18(1:18) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 5-T.Higgins for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN [49-A.Key].
13.8pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Bengals won this one — 3 giveaways, against Titans at 6 giveaways.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Titans owned this one and still lost it — 4 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Bengals at 3 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Bengals won this one — +0.17 expected points per carry, against Titans at -0.21 expected points per carry.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bengals won this one — +0.19 expected points per snap, against Titans at -0.12 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 13.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 33 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Titanshigher on Bengals175 of 188 plays carry both curves
(14:08) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at TEN 11 for -2 yards (58-H.Landry). FUMBLES (58-H.Landry) [58-H.Landry], RECOVERED by TEN-93-T.Sweat at TEN 11. 93-T.Sweat pushed ob at TEN 41 for 30 yards (67-C.Volson; 71-A.Mims).
Swing +16.3 for TitansExpected points +6.68 for TitansThe model had Titans 25 points higher than the market did.play 46
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 14:08CIN +16% win prob(14:08) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at TEN 11 for -2 yards (58-H.Landry). FUMBLES (58-H.Landry) [58-H.Landry], RECOVERED by TEN-93-T.Sweat at TEN 11. 93-T.Sweat pushed ob at TEN 41 for 30 yards (67-C.Volson; 71-A.Mims). Fumble Forced by 93-T.Sweat.
2nd · 1:18TEN +14% win prob(1:18) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 5-T.Higgins for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN [49-A.Key].
1st · 4:53TEN +12% win prob(4:53) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass short left to 83-T.Boyd to CIN 29 for 40 yards (29-C.Taylor-Britt).
2nd · 2:08CIN +11% win prob(2:08) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass short left intended for 83-T.Boyd INTERCEPTED by 29-C.Taylor-Britt at CIN 49. 29-C.Taylor-Britt pushed ob at TEN 23 for 28 yards (15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine). PENALTY on CIN-91-T.Hendrickson, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at TEN 23.
1st · 9:24TEN +8% win prob(9:24) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 1-J.Chase to TEN 21 for 29 yards (37-A.Hooker).
2nd · 10:09CIN +8% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tee Higgins's 38-yard touchdown catch with 1:18 left in the 2nd put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Titans ahead 4–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Bengals, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.19Bengals: +0.19 expected points added per play
−0.12Titans: −0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.21Bengals: +0.21 expected points added per play
−0.05Titans: −0.05 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.17Bengals: +0.17 expected points added per play
−0.21Titans: −0.21 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 63 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Titans’s 64 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 6, Titans 4.
NoteTitans outgained Bengals 374-370 but lost the turnover battle 6-3. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CIN's blitz rate sent turned over: 40.0% in week 14 against 17.9% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 26 pts
right on their number · −2.5 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.31× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Titans16.2%
inside their normal wobble · +4.2 vs their 12.0%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (+0.87× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
NoteTEN's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 10.8%, 18.1 points below their season mean of 28.9% and 1.8 times their own 10.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bengals←Titans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Burrow pass+15% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(1:18) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 5-T.Higgins for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN [49-A.Key].
Q2 1:18 · Bengals · 3rd & 10 at TEN 38 · gained 38 · +4.72 EP · +15.4% win probability
173 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 188 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 183. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was TEN moving 87 yards from the TEN 13 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
188 of 188 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
188
EPA per play
+0.04
Success rate
48%
Yards
744
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50+0.0360%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43-0.0779%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR8-1.3013%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.5333%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.3967%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR3——
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Bengals0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Titans1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
188 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
188 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
Intercepted4 plays
Bengals0Titans6
Bengals0Titans7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Bengals 29 to the Bengals 3
Bengals6Titans7
Bengals7Titans7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Titans 6
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Bengals7Titans13
Bengals7Titans14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Titans 30 to the Bengals 1
The period ended10 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Titans 49
2nd quarter55 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Titans 37 to the Titans 7
Fumble lost8 plays, from the Titans 41 to the Bengals 33
Bengals13Titans14
Bengals14Titans14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bengals 38 to the Titans 2
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Titans 30 to the Titans 49
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two tight ends and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Bengals20Titans14
Bengals21Titans14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Titans 38 to the Titans 32
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
Bengals24Titans14
Field goal15 plays, from the Titans 38 to the Titans 3
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 30 to the Titans 33
Intercepted7 plays, from the Bengals 33 to the Titans 33
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Bengals30Titans14
Touchdown3 plays, from the Titans 3 to the Titans 21
Bengals31Titans14
Fumble lost10 plays, from the Titans 30 to the Bengals 33
The period ended8 plays, from the Titans 20 to the Bengals 47
4th quarter56 plays
Intercepted6 plays, from the Bengals 42 to the Bengals 27
Punt8 plays, from the Bengals 29 to the Titans 44
Bengals31Titans20
Bengals31Titans21
Touchdown10 plays, from the Titans 13 to the Bengals 17
Bengals37Titans21
Touchdown23 plays, from the Bengals 33 to the Titans 1
Bengals37Titans27
Touchdown8 plays, from the Titans 30 to the Bengals 13
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Bengals -6
Closing total
46.5
Bengals moneyline
-250
Titans moneyline
+205
Bengals closed -6 and covered, winning by 10.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 64 — over by 17.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Nissan Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 55°F at kickoff; breezy at 12 mph out of the south; overcast.
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
Bengals 6 days · Titans 7 days
Coaches
Zac Taylor vs Brian Callahan
(10:09) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis up the middle to CIN 39 for -3 yards (91-T.Hendrickson). Cincinnati challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis up the middle to CIN 40 for -4 yards (91-T.Hendrickson). FUMBLES (91-T.Hendrickson), RECOVERED by CIN-45-M.Njongmeta at CIN 38.
3rd · 7:35CIN +7% win prob(7:35) 8-W.Levis pass deep middle intended for 85-C.Okonkwo INTERCEPTED by 22-G.Stone at TEN 39. 22-G.Stone for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 14:18CIN +7% win prob(14:18) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle intended for 80-A.Iosivas INTERCEPTED by 57-L.Gifford [49-A.Key] at CIN 29. 57-L.Gifford to CIN 29 for no gain (80-A.Iosivas).
Bengalscategory by categoryTitans
Bengals0
Titans6
