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2024 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 15, 2024 · Bank of America Stadium

Dallas CowboysWinner

30

Carolina Panthers

14

CAR -2.5 upsetO 42 ✓

Dallas Cowboys 30–14. Biggest swing: Q2 0:42, CAR +20% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3CAR ↑DAL ↓
Q2 · 0:42DAL 10 — CAR 6CAR ball · 1st & 10DAL 75%

(:42) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 18-J.Coker for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-O.Odighizuwa].

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 0:42CAR +20% win prob(:42) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 18-J.Coker for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-O.Odighizuwa].
  2. Q3 · 14:56DAL +15% win prob(14:56) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at CAR 28 for -6 yards (97-O.Odighizuwa). FUMBLES (97-O.Odighizuwa) [97-O.Odighizuwa], RECOVERED by DAL-99-C.Golston at CAR 29.
  3. Q1 · 2:52DAL +13% win prob(2:52) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young scrambles left end to DAL 15 for 3 yards (35-M.Liufau). FUMBLES (35-M.Liufau), touched at DAL 13, RECOVERED by DAL-94-M.Kneeland at DAL 14. 94-M.Kneeland to DAL 14 for no gain (9-B.Young).
  4. Q2 · 9:07CAR +12% win prob(9:07) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short right to 88-C.Lamb for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q2 · 9:07DAL Touchdown

    (9:07) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short right to 88-C.Lamb for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DAL 7 — CAR 0
  2. Q2 · 4:09DAL Field goal

    (4:09) 17-B.Aubrey 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

    Score after this play: DAL 10 — CAR 0
  3. Q2 · 0:42CAR Touchdown

    (:42) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 18-J.Coker for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-O.Odighizuwa]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DAL 10 — CAR 7
  4. Q3 · 12:53DAL Touchdown

    (12:53) 10-C.Rush pass short right to 1-J.Tolbert for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DAL 17 — CAR 7
  5. Q3 · 7:05DAL Touchdown

    (7:05) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass deep right to 83-J.Brooks for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-L.Ray]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DAL 24 — CAR 7
  6. Q4 · 14:16DAL Field goal

    (14:16) 17-B.Aubrey 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

    Score after this play: DAL 27 — CAR 7
  7. Q4 · 9:19CAR Touchdown

    (9:19) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young scrambles right end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DAL 27 — CAR 14
  8. Q4 · 6:12DAL Field goal

    (6:12) 17-B.Aubrey 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

    Score after this play: DAL 30 — CAR 14

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricCowboysPanthers
Offensive plays6850
Total yards411 (edge)235
Yards per play6.0 (edge)4.7
Expected points added / play0.20 (edge)-0.33
Success rate56% (edge)36%
Dropback rate43%74%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.39 (edge)-0.37
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.07 (edge)-0.21
Third downs6/12 (edge)3/11
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)9 (edge)2
First downs gained on snaps23 (edge)11
Sacks taken1 (edge)6
Turnovers2 (edge)4

Cowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.20 expected points added per play vs -0.33.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CAR

Bryce YoungQB

19/28, 219 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-10.3 expected points added · +0.7% completion over expected

Passing · DAL

Cooper RushQB

18/29, 214 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

11.5 expected points added · -4.1% completion over expected

Rushing · DAL

Rico DowdleRB

25 att, 149 yds, 0 TD

5.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CAR

Chuba HubbardRB

10 att, 32 yds, 0 TD

-3.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DAL

CeeDee LambWR

9/13 for 116 yds, 1 TD

46% of team targets · 8.0 expected points added

Receiving · CAR

Jalen CokerWR

4/6 for 110 yds, 1 TD

22% of team targets · 7.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1DALDAL 247123:55Punt
2CARCAR 1313678:24Fumble
3DALDAL 14411:06Punt
4CARCAR 18451:49Punt
5DALDAL 2311875:45Touchdown +7
6CARCAR 306212:42Interception
7DALCAR 486192:14Field goal +3
8CARCAR 31511:26Punt
9DALDAL 329461:57Fumble
10CARCAR 172830:11Touchdown +7
11DALDAL 246240:31Missed field goal
12CARCAR 342-50:10Fumble
13DALCAR 296292:04Touchdown +7
14CARCAR 305112:23Punt
15DALDAL 227783:28Touchdown +7
16CARCAR 315-112:22Punt
17DALDAL 2710565:21Field goal +3
18CARCAR 3014514:59Touchdown +7
19DALCAR 467233:04Field goal +3
20CARCAR 307121:48Interception
21DALDAL 259364:21End of game

8 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cowboys gained 87 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Dallas Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Cooper Rush18/2921430111.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Rico Dowdle251496.005.2
Ezekiel Elliott9303.300.5
Kavontae Turpin22713.501.9
Cooper Rush451.30-6.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
CeeDee Lamb913116146%8.0
Brandin Cooks3534018%1.9
Jake Ferguson2423014%0.9
Jalen Brooks111714%2.2
Ezekiel Elliott111104%1.2
Jalen Tolbert121117%0.9
Brevyn Spann-Ford11204%-0.4
Kavontae Turpin01004%-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Marist Liufau230.000
Eric Kendricks230.011
Micah Parsons312.000
Osa Odighizuwa311.000
Chauncey Golston401.000
Donovan Wilson400.000
Andrew Booth210.000
Jourdan Lewis211.001
Amani Oruwariye300.000
Israel Mukuamu200.011

Carolina Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Bryce Young19/28219126-10.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Chuba Hubbard10323.20-3.2
Mike Boone2147.000.9
Bryce Young3124.01-3.4
Xavier Legette122.00-0.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jalen Coker46110122%7.3
Adam Thielen5751026%-2.7
David Moore2419015%-0.5
Chuba Hubbard4417015%2.1
Tommy Tremble221507%0.9
Xavier Legette237011%-1.3
Ja'Tavion Sanders01004%-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Josey Jewell550.001
Jordan Fuller450.000
Claudin Cherelus540.000
Xavier Woods430.000
D.J. Johnson140.000
Jaden Crumedy130.000
Jonathan Harris220.000
Michael Jackson300.000
Shy Tuttle300.000
D.J. Wonnum210.001

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
CAR -2.5
Closing total
42
DAL moneyline
+120
CAR moneyline
-142

Panthers closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 42; the game landed 44 — over by 2.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
45°F, wind 7 mph
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
DAL 6 days · CAR 7 days
Coaches
Mike McCarthy vs Dave Canales