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2024 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 15, 2024 · Bank of America Stadium
Final
CowboysDallas30
BY 16final margin
PanthersCarolina14
Dallas Cowboys 30 at Carolina Panthers 14. Final.
Panthers -2.5 upset
The verdict · 2024 Week 15
Dallas Cowboys 30, Panthers 14 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 0:42, 1st and 10, on Jalen Coker — 19.6 win-probability points to the Panthers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:42 · 1st and 10
Jalen Coker
Panthers
(:42) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 18-J.Coker for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-O.Odighizuwa].
O 42 ✓
Panthers closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Dallas Cowboys 30–14. Biggest swing: Q2 0:42, Panthers +19.6% win probability on one snap.
19.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Bryce YoungCowboysQ1 2:52(2:52) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young scrambles left end to DAL 15 for 3 yards (35-M.Liufau). FUMBLES (35-M.Liufau), touched at DAL 13, RECOVERED by DAL-94-M.Kneeland at DAL 14. 94-M.Kneeland to DAL 14 for no gain (9-B.Young).
12.7pts
Bryce YoungCowboysQ3 14:56(14:56) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at CAR 28 for -6 yards (97-O.Odighizuwa). FUMBLES (97-O.Odighizuwa) [97-O.Odighizuwa], RECOVERED by DAL-99-C.Golston at CAR 29.
15.4pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Cowboys won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Panthers at 2 chunk plays.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Cowboys won this one — 56% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Panthers at 36% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Cowboys won this one — +0.20 expected points per snap, against Panthers at -0.33 expected points per snap.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Cowboys won this one — +0.39 expected points per dropback, against Panthers at -0.37 expected points per dropback.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 5 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cowboys.
MarketModelmodel higher on Panthershigher on Cowboys164 of 176 plays carry both curves
(:42) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 18-J.Coker for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-O.Odighizuwa].
Swing +19.6 for PanthersExpected points +6.82 for PanthersModel and market agree here.play 76
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:42CAR +20% win prob(:42) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 18-J.Coker for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-O.Odighizuwa].
3rd · 14:56DAL +15% win prob(14:56) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at CAR 28 for -6 yards (97-O.Odighizuwa). FUMBLES (97-O.Odighizuwa) [97-O.Odighizuwa], RECOVERED by DAL-99-C.Golston at CAR 29.
1st · 2:52DAL +13% win prob(2:52) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young scrambles left end to DAL 15 for 3 yards (35-M.Liufau). FUMBLES (35-M.Liufau), touched at DAL 13, RECOVERED by DAL-94-M.Kneeland at DAL 14. 94-M.Kneeland to DAL 14 for no gain (9-B.Young).
2nd · 9:07CAR +12% win prob(9:07) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short right to 88-C.Lamb for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 11:08CAR +10% win prob(11:08) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass deep right to 88-C.Lamb to CAR 20 for 28 yards (20-J.Fuller).
2nd · 0:45DAL +9% win prob(:45) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush to CAR 18 for -4 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by CAR-52-Dj.Johnson at CAR 17.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
CeeDee Lamb's 14-yard touchdown catch with 9:07 left in the 2nd put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
2nd9:07CeeDee Lamb·14-yd TD catch14-yard touchdown catchfrom Cooper Rushfrom Cooper RushLead never changed again+77–0
2nd4:09Brandon Aubrey·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap T.Sieg+310–0
4th6:12Brandon Aubrey·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap T.Sieg+330–14
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cowboyscategory by categoryPanthers
Cowboys9–0Panthers
411Total yards235
6.0Yards per play4.7
56%Success rate36%
50%Third-down rate27%
3Red-zone touchdowns1
9Explosive plays2
23First downs11
1Sacks taken6
2Turnovers4
The read
Cowboys ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.39 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.20Cowboys: +0.20 expected points added per play
−0.33Panthers: −0.33 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.39Cowboys: +0.39 expected points added per play
−0.37Panthers: −0.37 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.07Cowboys: +0.07 expected points added per play
−0.21Panthers: −0.21 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 68 snaps at a 43% dropback rate against Panthers’s 50 at 74%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 4, Panthers 3.
NoteCowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.20 expected points added per play vs -0.33.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CAR's blitz rate sent turned over: 46.4% in week 14 against 27.6% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 12 pts
leaned — got home · +10.8 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+1.21× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Panthers10.3%
right on their number · +0.3 vs their 10.0%, and they swing ±3.8 week to week (+0.09× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
NoteDAL's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 13.5%, 19.0 points below their season mean of 32.5% and 2.6 times their own 7.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Dallas Cowboys
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
67Brock HoffmanC · Every snap100%73 snaps
78Terence SteeleT · Every snap100%73 snaps
10Cooper RushQB · Every snap100%73 snaps
73Tyler SmithG · Full-time88%64 snaps
60Tyler GuytonT · Heavy rotation79%58 snaps
66TJ BassG · Heavy rotation77%56 snaps
23Rico DowdleRB · Heavy rotation74%54 snaps
88CeeDee LambWR · Heavy rotation70%51 snaps
3Brandin CooksWR · Heavy rotation63%46 snaps
87Jake FergusonTE · Heavy rotation60%44 snaps
1Jalen TolbertWR · Rotational49%36 snaps
86Luke SchoonmakerTE · Rotational38%28 snaps
40Hunter LuepkeFB · Rotational31%23 snaps
71Chuma EdogaT · Rotational31%23 snaps
89Brevyn Spann-FordTE · Rotational30%22 snaps
83Jalen BrooksWR · Rotational27%20 snaps
9KaVontae TurpinWR · Situational19%14 snaps
15Ezekiel ElliottRB · Situational19%14 snaps
81Jonathan MingoWR · Situational18%13 snaps
65Dakoda ShepleyC · Situational12%9 snaps
79Matt WaletzkoT · Situational12%9 snaps
85Princeton FantTE · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Cooper BeebeCTrevon DiggsCBTyrus WheatDEJuanyeh ThomasFSDeuce VaughnRBRyan FlournoyWR
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cowboys←Panthers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Young pass+19% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:42) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 18-J.Coker for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-O.Odighizuwa].
Q2 0:42 · Panthers · 1st & 10 at CAR 17 · gained 83 · +6.82 EP · +19.5% win probability
162 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 176 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 162 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 171. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 83 yards from the CAR 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
176 of 176 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
176
EPA per play
+0.05
Success rate
48%
Yards
645
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42+0.2055%
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42-0.3771%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.3730%
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR9+0.3822%
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.2614%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.4360%
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Panthers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter32 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Cowboys 24 to the Cowboys 46
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost14 plays, from the Panthers 13 to the Cowboys 18
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 14 to the Cowboys 15
The period ended5 plays, from the Panthers 18 to the Panthers 23
2nd quarter55 plays
Punt1 play
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Cowboys6Panthers0
Cowboys7Panthers0
Touchdown11 plays, from the Cowboys 23 to the Panthers 14
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.9 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Cowboys 49
Cowboys10Panthers0
Field goal7 plays, from the Panthers 48 to the Panthers 29
Punt7 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defenders
The period ended11 plays, from the Cowboys 32 to the Panthers 14
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
Cowboys10Panthers6
Cowboys10Panthers7
Touchdown2 plays
No good9 plays, from the Cowboys 24 to the Cowboys 48
3rd quarter34 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost2 plays
Cowboys16Panthers7
Cowboys17Panthers7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Panthers 29 to the Panthers 11
Punt6 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Panthers 36
Cowboys23Panthers7
Cowboys24Panthers7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Cowboys 22 to the Panthers 17
Punt5 plays
The period ended8 plays, from the Cowboys 27 to the Panthers 20
4th quarter55 plays
Cowboys27Panthers7
Field goal5 plays
Cowboys27Panthers13
Cowboys27Panthers14
Touchdown20 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Cowboys 1
Cowboys30Panthers14
Field goal7 plays, from the Panthers 46 to the Panthers 23
Intercepted10 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Cowboys 43
The period ended13 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Panthers 40
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Panthers -2.5
Closing total
42
Cowboys moneyline
+120
Panthers moneyline
-142
Panthers closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 42; the game landed 44 — over by 2.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cold, 45°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 7 mph out of the north-east; 0.03 in of precipitation; overcast.
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
Cowboys 6 days · Panthers 7 days
Coaches
Mike McCarthy vs Dave Canales
2nd · 6:28DAL +8% win prob(6:28) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle intended for 19-A.Thielen INTERCEPTED by 50-E.Kendricks (2-J.Lewis) [97-O.Odighizuwa] at DAL 45. 50-E.Kendricks to CAR 48 for 7 yards (50-R.Hunt).
1st · 12:04DAL +8% win prob(12:04) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush sacked at DAL 31 for -15 yards (8-J.Horn).
