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2024 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 15, 2024 · Lumen Field

Green Bay PackersWinner

30

Seattle Seahawks

13

GB -3 ✓U 48 ✓

Green Bay Packers 30–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 14:17, SEA +7% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3SEA ↑GB ↓
Q1 · 14:17GB 0 — SEA 0GB ball · 2nd & 6GB 64%

(14:17) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 8-J.Jacobs to SEA 46 for 13 yards (13-E.Jones). PENALTY on SEA-27-T.Woolen, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 46.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 14:17SEA +7% win prob(14:17) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 8-J.Jacobs to SEA 46 for 13 yards (13-E.Jones). PENALTY on SEA-27-T.Woolen, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 46.
  2. Q2 · 3:07GB +6% win prob(3:07) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left intended for 87-N.Fant INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Valentine [45-Er.Wilson] at GB -6. 24-C.Valentine to GB 14 for 20 yards (11-J.Smith-Njigba).
  3. Q1 · 2:00SEA +6% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 87-R.Doubs for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q1 · 6:43SEA +4% win prob(6:43) 10-J.Love pass short right to 8-J.Jacobs to GB 41 for 21 yards (8-C.Bryant).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 9:23GB Touchdown

    (9:23) 8-J.Jacobs up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 7 — SEA 0
  2. Q1 · 2:00GB Touchdown

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 87-R.Doubs for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 14 — SEA 0
  3. Q2 · 13:03SEA Field goal

    (13:03) 5-J.Myers 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    Score after this play: GB 14 — SEA 3
  4. Q2 · 9:25GB Field goal

    (9:25) 17-B.McManus 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

    Score after this play: GB 17 — SEA 3
  5. Q2 · 0:04GB Field goal

    (:04) 17-B.McManus 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

    Score after this play: GB 20 — SEA 3
  6. Q3 · 6:25SEA Field goal

    (6:25) 5-J.Myers 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    Score after this play: GB 20 — SEA 6
  7. Q3 · 1:39GB Field goal

    (1:39) 17-B.McManus 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

    Score after this play: GB 23 — SEA 6
  8. Q4 · 11:23SEA Touchdown

    (11:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-Z.Charbonnet right end for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 23 — SEA 13
  9. Q4 · 5:05GB Touchdown

    (5:05) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 87-R.Doubs for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 30 — SEA 13

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricPackersSeahawks
Offensive plays6156
Total yards369 (edge)208
Yards per play6.0 (edge)3.7
Expected points added / play0.07 (edge)-0.34
Success rate49% (edge)32%
Dropback rate46%75%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.40 (edge)-0.48
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.210.09 (edge)
Third downs5/12 (edge)4/13
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)6 (edge)4
First downs gained on snaps18 (edge)12
Sacks taken0 (edge)7
Turnovers1 (edge)2

Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.34.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · GB

Jordan LoveQB

20/27, 229 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

10.8 expected points added · +13.3% completion over expected

Passing · SEA

Geno SmithQB

15/19, 149 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-5.2 expected points added · +22.8% completion over expected

Rushing · GB

Josh JacobsRB

26 att, 94 yds, 1 TD

-8.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SEA

Zach CharbonnetRB

8 att, 54 yds, 1 TD

2.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SEA

Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR

10/12 for 83 yds, 0 TD

39% of team targets · 3.5 expected points added

Receiving · GB

Christian WatsonWR

3/6 for 56 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · -0.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1GBGB 3712485:41Touchdown +7
2SEASEA 256122:36Punt
3GBGB 209804:49Touchdown +7
4SEASEA 308503:55Field goal +3
5GBGB 299513:38Field goal +3
6SEASEA 2513536:27Interception
7GBGB 147562:54Field goal +3
8SEASEA 3810294:34Punt
9GBGB 7462:40Punt
10SEAGB 465201:26Field goal +3
11GBGB 308314:44Field goal +3
12SEASEA 265-61:46Punt
13GBGB 43471:32Punt
14SEASEA 4400:18Punt
15GBGB 43260:16Fumble
16SEAGB 456451:28Touchdown +7
17GBGB 34541:12Punt
18SEASEA 32450:32Punt
19GBGB 167453:42Turnover on downs
20SEASEA 392-60:33Interception
21GBSEA 274270:18Touchdown +7
22SEASEA 355-41:41Punt
23GBGB 16481:32Punt
24SEASEA 323101:46End of game

9 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Packers gained 80 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Green Bay Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jordan Love20/2722920010.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Josh Jacobs26943.61-8.3
Jayden Reed3279.001.6
Emanuel Wilson393.00-0.7
Christopher Brooks166.000.3
Jordan Love144.000.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Christian Watson3656023%-0.3
Josh Jacobs4442015%3.5
Romeo Doubs3540219%4.9
Jayden Reed5634023%-0.7
Tucker Kraft223408%2.2
Dontayvion Wicks221408%1.1
Christopher Brooks11904%0.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Edgerrin Cooper511.012
Kingsley Enagbare502.000
Keisean Nixon320.000
Xavier McKinney410.000
Evan Williams310.000
Eric Stokes210.000
Quay Walker300.000
Carrington Valentine120.012
Isaiah McDuffie210.000
Brenton Cox201.000

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Geno Smith15/19149013-5.2
Sam Howell5/1424014-15.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Zach Charbonnet8546.812.8
George Holani3103.30-0.8
Kenny McIntosh393.00-0.9
Geno Smith155.001.3
Sam Howell122.00-0.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jaxon Smith-Njigba101283039%3.5
DK Metcalf3328010%1.4
Tyler Lockett112203%1.5
Noah Fant3715023%-11.1
Zach Charbonnet1412013%-3.0
Jake Bobo11803%1.2
A.J. Barner135010%-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Ernest Jones360.000
Coby Bryant710.000
Tyrice Knight250.000
Leonard Williams430.000
Jarran Reed430.000
Julian Love430.000
Dre'Mont Jones130.000
Devon Witherspoon300.000
Tariq Woolen200.001
Josh Jobe200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
GB -3
Closing total
48
GB moneyline
-162
SEA moneyline
+136

Packers closed -3 and covered, winning by 17.

Total closed 48; the game landed 43 — under by 5.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Lumen Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
43°F, wind 3 mph
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
GB 10 days · SEA 7 days
Coaches
Matt LaFleur vs Mike Macdonald