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polling · 1800s tick · as of 10:05 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 15, 2024 · Lumen Field
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 15
It turned at Q1 14:17, 2nd and 6, on Josh Jacobs — 6.7 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Green Bay Packers 30–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 14:17, Packers +6.7% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 14:17 · 2nd and 6
Josh Jacobs
Packers
(14:17) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 8-J.Jacobs to SEA 46 for 13 yards (13-E.Jones). PENALTY on SEA-27-T.Woolen, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 46.
6.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Packers won this one — +0.40 expected points per dropback, against Seahawks at -0.48 expected points per dropback.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Packers won this one — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Seahawks at 32% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Packers won this one — +0.07 expected points per snap, against Seahawks at -0.34 expected points per snap.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Seahawks owned this one and still lost it — +0.09 expected points per carry, against Packers at -0.21 expected points per carry.
Seahawksthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 5.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
(14:17) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 8-J.Jacobs to SEA 46 for 13 yards (13-E.Jones). PENALTY on SEA-27-T.Woolen, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 46.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Josh Jacobs's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 9:23 left in the 1st put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Packerscategory by categorySeahawks
Packers ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.48 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 61 snaps at a 46% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 56 at 75%. Red-zone trips: Packers 6, Seahawks 2.
Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.34.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
GB's sack or hit rate, 28.6%, is past their previous high of 24.1% in week 7 — the highest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.8 points. · +2.2σ from their own normal
SEA's play-action rate, 33.3%, is past their previous high of 30.3% in week 7 — the highest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.6 points. · +1.3σ from their own normal
SEA's early-down pass rate turned over: 43.5% in week 14 against 69.8% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
43 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.4 points. · +0.7σ from their own normal
GB's blitz rate sent turned over: 37.2% in week 14 against 21.4% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points. · −0.3σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 21 pts
Over Expected room →Packers-2.6 ptsinside their normal wobble · +5.6 vs their -8.2 pts, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+0.68× that swing) · 61 snaps
Seahawks2.2 ptsright on their number · +0.6 vs their 1.7 pts, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+0.08× that swing) · 56 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 7% to 95%
Tendencies room →Packers39.6%right on their number · −4.7 vs their 44.2%, and they swing ±14.1 week to week (−0.33× that swing) · 48 early downs
Seahawks69.8%inside their normal wobble · +8.4 vs their 61.4%, and they swing ±12.4 week to week (+0.68× that swing) · 43 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 56%
Tendencies room →Packers35.7%inside their normal wobble · +11.5 vs their 24.3%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (+0.93× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Seahawks33.3%leaned — faked the run · +14.0 vs their 19.4%, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (+1.31× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36% to 116%
Fourth Down room →Packers25.0%right on their number · −8.8 vs their 33.8%, and they swing ±19.5 week to week (−0.45× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Seahawks—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 39.6%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 59%
Tendencies room →Packers21.4%right on their number · −1.7 vs their 23.1%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.27× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Seahawks35.7%inside their normal wobble · +9.1 vs their 26.6%, and they swing ±12.6 week to week (+0.72× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 36%
Tendencies room →Packers28.6%off script — got home · +15.1 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+2.21× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Seahawks21.4%inside their normal wobble · +3.9 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+0.55× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
GB's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 28.6%, 15.1 points above their season mean of 13.5% and 2.2 times their own 6.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Green Bay Packers
48 dressed · 4 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 4
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Seattle Seahawks
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Who moved the needle
Passing · GB
20/27, 229 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
10.8 expected points added · +13.3% completion over expected
Passing · SEA
15/19, 149 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-5.2 expected points added · +22.8% completion over expected
Receiving · SEA
10/12 for 83 yds, 0 TD
39% of team targets · 3.5 expected points added
Receiving · GB
3/6 for 56 yds, 0 TD
23% of team targets · -0.3 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Romeo Doubs banked 7.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh JacobsRB · Bell Cow Back | 21.6 | −1.6 | 75% | 64% | 15% | 0% | 26 car, 94 yd, 1 TD · 4/4, 42 yd |
| Romeo DoubsWR · Featured Receiver | 19.0 | +7.9 | 75% | 89% | 19% | 40% | 3/5, 40 yd, 2 TD |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · Alpha Receiver | 18.3 | +0.3 | 95% | 100% | 39% | 29% | 10/12, 83 yd |
| Jordan LoveQB · Starter QB | 17.6 | +2.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 20/27, 229 yd, 2 TD · 1 car, 4 yd |
| Zach CharbonnetRB · Committee Back | 13.6 | +3.9 | 80% | 86% | 13% | 2% | 8 car, 54 yd, 1 TD · 1/4, 12 yd |
| Jayden ReedWR · Featured Receiver | 11.1 | −1.0 | 59% | 75% | 23% | 1% | 3 car, 27 yd · 5/6, 34 yd |
| Christian WatsonWR · Featured Receiver | 8.6 | −2.0 | 78% | 79% | 23% | 53% | 3/6, 56 yd |
| DK MetcalfWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.8 | +1.5 | 93% | 98% | 10% | 13% | 3/3, 28 yd |
| Tucker KraftTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.4 | +2.0 | 89% | 96% | 8% | 15% | 2/2, 34 yd |
| Noah FantTE · Featured Receiver | 4.5 | −5.5 | 59% | 67% | 23% | 26% | 3/7, 15 yd |
| Geno SmithQB · Starter QB | 4.5 | −2.5 | 59% | — | 0% | — | 15/19, 149 yd, 1 INT · 1 car, 5 yd |
| Dontayvion WicksWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.4 | +0.2 | 47% | 36% | 8% | 2% | 2/2, 14 yd |
| Tyler LockettWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.2 | +1.3 | 76% | 79% | 3% | 11% | 1/1, 22 yd |
| Christopher BrooksRB | 2.5 | +0.2 | 25% | 29% | 4% | 0% | 1 car, 6 yd · 1/1, 9 yd |
| Jake BoboWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.5 | 25% | 24% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| A.J. BarnerTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −3.2 | 29% | 29% | 10% | 17% | 1/3, 5 yd |
| George HolaniRB | 1.0 | −0.9 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Emanuel WilsonRB | 0.9 | −0.5 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Kenny McIntoshRB | 0.9 | −0.7 | 15% | 14% | 0% | — | 3 car, 9 yd |
| Jaelon DardenWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Dareke YoungWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Sam HowellQB | -0.8 | −5.3 | 41% | — | 0% | — | 5/14, 24 yd, 1 INT · 1 car, 2 yd |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(14:17) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 8-J.Jacobs to SEA 46 for 13 yards (13-E.Jones). PENALTY on SEA-27-T.Woolen, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 46.
Q1 14:17 · Packers · 2nd & 6 at GB 41 · gained 13 · +2.36 EP · +8.8% win probability
154 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 168 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 154 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 163. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 80 yards from the GB 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Packers6
Seahawks0Packers7Seahawks0Packers13Seahawks0Packers14Seahawks0Packers14Seahawks3Packers17Seahawks3Packers20Seahawks3Packers20Seahawks6Packers23Seahawks6Packers23Seahawks12Packers23Seahawks13Packers29Seahawks13Packers30Seahawks13Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Packers at Seahawks, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 20/27 | 229 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +10.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 26 | 94 | 3.6 | 1 | −8.3 |
| Jayden Reed | 3 | 27 | 9.0 | 0 | +1.6 |
| Emanuel Wilson |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Watson | 3 | 6 | 56 | 0 | 23% | −0.3 |
| Josh Jacobs | 4 | 4 | 42 | 0 | 15% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin Cooper | 5 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Kingsley Enagbare | 5 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keisean Nixon |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 15/19 | 149 | 0 | 1 | 3 | −5.2 |
| Sam Howell | 5/14 | 24 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_15_GB_SEA
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Packers closed -3 and covered, winning by 17.
Total closed 48; the game landed 43 — under by 5.0.
Conditions and crew
| 3 |
| 9 |
| 3.0 |
| 0 |
| −0.7 |
| Christopher Brooks | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Jordan Love | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | +0.4 |
| +3.5 |
| Romeo Doubs | 3 | 5 | 40 | 2 | 19% | +4.9 |
| Jayden Reed | 5 | 6 | 34 | 0 | 23% | −0.7 |
| Tucker Kraft | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 | 8% | +2.2 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 8% | +1.1 |
| Christopher Brooks | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 4% | +0.8 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Xavier McKinney | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Evan Williams | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Stokes | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quay Walker | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carrington Valentine | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Isaiah McDuffie | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brenton Cox | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 |
| 4 |
| −15.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Charbonnet | 8 | 54 | 6.8 | 1 | +2.8 |
| George Holani | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Kenny McIntosh | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Geno Smith | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | +1.3 |
| Sam Howell | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 10 | 12 | 83 | 0 | 39% | +3.5 |
| DK Metcalf | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 10% | +1.4 |
| Tyler Lockett | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 | 3% | +1.5 |
| Noah Fant | 3 | 7 | 15 | 0 | 23% | −11.1 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 1 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 13% | −3.0 |
| Jake Bobo | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | +1.2 |
| A.J. Barner | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 10% | −1.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ernest Jones | 3 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Coby Bryant | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrice Knight | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leonard Williams | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jarran Reed | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Julian Love | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dre'Mont Jones | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devon Witherspoon | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tariq Woolen | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Josh Jobe | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
