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Green Bay Packers 30 at Seattle Seahawks 13. Final.
Packers -3 ✓U 48 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 15
Green Bay Packers 30, Seahawks 13 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 14:17, 2nd and 6, on Josh Jacobs — 6.7 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 14:17 · 2nd and 6
Josh Jacobs
Packers
(14:17) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 8-J.Jacobs to SEA 46 for 13 yards (13-E.Jones). PENALTY on SEA-27-T.Woolen, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 46.
Packers closed -3 and covered, winning by 17.
Green Bay Packers 30–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 14:17, Packers +6.7% win probability on one snap.
6.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Romeo DoubsPackersQ1 2:00(2:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 87-R.Doubs for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
5.5pts
Carrington ValentinePackersQ2 3:07(3:07) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left intended for 87-N.Fant INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Valentine [45-Er.Wilson] at GB -6. 24-C.Valentine to GB 14 for 20 yards (11-J.Smith-Njigba).
6.0pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Packers won this one — +0.40 expected points per dropback, against Seahawks at -0.48 expected points per dropback.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Packers won this one — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Seahawks at 32% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Packers won this one — +0.07 expected points per snap, against Seahawks at -0.34 expected points per snap.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Seahawks owned this one and still lost it — +0.09 expected points per carry, against Packers at -0.21 expected points per carry.
Seahawksthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
MarketModelmodel higher on Seahawkshigher on Packers156 of 168 plays carry both curves
(14:17) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 8-J.Jacobs to SEA 46 for 13 yards (13-E.Jones). PENALTY on SEA-27-T.Woolen, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 46.
Swing −6.7 for SeahawksExpected points −2.36 for SeahawksThe model had Seahawks 20 points higher than the market did.play 4
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 14:17SEA +7% win prob(14:17) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 8-J.Jacobs to SEA 46 for 13 yards (13-E.Jones). PENALTY on SEA-27-T.Woolen, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 46.
2nd · 3:07GB +6% win prob(3:07) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left intended for 87-N.Fant INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Valentine [45-Er.Wilson] at GB -6. 24-C.Valentine to GB 14 for 20 yards (11-J.Smith-Njigba).
1st · 2:00SEA +6% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 87-R.Doubs for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 6:43SEA +4% win prob(6:43) 10-J.Love pass short right to 8-J.Jacobs to GB 41 for 21 yards (8-C.Bryant).
4th · 11:23SEA +4% win prob(11:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-Z.Charbonnet right end for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 13:43GB +4% win prob(13:43) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at GB 30 for -6 yards (52-R.Gary).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Josh Jacobs's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 9:23 left in the 1st put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:23Josh Jacobs·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–0
1st2:00Romeo Doubs·13-yd TD catch13-yard touchdown catchfrom Jordan Lovefrom Jordan Love+714–0
2nd13:03Jason Myers·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.Stoll+314–3
2nd9:25Brandon McManus·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder D.Whelan · snap M.Orzech+317–3
2nd0:04Brandon McManus·21-yd field goal21-yard field goalholder D.Whelan · snap M.Orzech+320–3
3rd6:25Jason Myers·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.Stoll+320–6
3rd1:39Brandon McManus·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder D.Whelan · snap M.Orzech+323–6
4th5:05Romeo Doubs·22-yd TD catch22-yard touchdown catchfrom Jordan Lovefrom Jordan Love+730–13
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Packerscategory by categorySeahawks
Packers9–0Seahawks
369Total yards208
6.0Yards per play3.7
49%Success rate32%
42%Third-down rate31%
2Red-zone touchdowns0
6Explosive plays4
18First downs12
0Sacks taken7
1Turnovers2
The read
Packers ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.48 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.07Packers: +0.07 expected points added per play
−0.34Seahawks: −0.34 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.40Packers: +0.40 expected points added per play
−0.48Seahawks: −0.48 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.21Packers: −0.21 expected points added per play
+0.09Seahawks: +0.09 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 61 snaps at a 46% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 56 at 75%. Red-zone trips: Packers 6, Seahawks 2.
NotePackers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.34.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 15Against their seasonTendencies
GB's sack or hit rate, 28.6%, is past their previous high of 24.1% in week 7 — the highest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
2.2 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 3.2-swing turn from week 14.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.8 points.
high through week 15Against their seasonTendencies
SEA's play-action rate, 33.3%, is past their previous high of 30.3% in week 7 — the highest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
A 2.2-swing turn from week 14.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.6 points.
SEA's early-down pass rate turned over: 43.5% in week 14 against 69.8% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
43 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.4 points.
GB's blitz rate sent turned over: 37.2% in week 14 against 21.4% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 21 pts
off script — got home · +15.1 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+2.21× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Seahawks21.4%
inside their normal wobble · +3.9 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+0.55× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
NoteGB's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 28.6%, 15.1 points above their season mean of 13.5% and 2.2 times their own 6.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Green Bay Packers
48 dressed · 4 inactive · 1 never used
75Sean RhyanG · Every snap100%64 snaps
50Zach TomT · Every snap100%64 snaps
63Rasheed WalkerT · Every snap100%64 snaps
71Josh MyersC · Every snap100%64 snaps
10Jordan LoveQB · Every snap100%64 snaps
74Elgton JenkinsG · Every snap100%64 snaps
85Tucker KraftTE · Full-time89%57 snaps
9Christian WatsonWR · Heavy rotation78%50 snaps
8Josh JacobsRB · Heavy rotation75%48 snaps
87Romeo DoubsWR · Heavy rotation75%48 snaps
11Jayden ReedWR · Heavy rotation59%38 snaps
13Dontayvion WicksWR · Rotational47%30 snaps
30Chris BrooksRB · Rotational25%16 snaps
89Ben SimsTE · Rotational25%16 snaps
86John FitzPatrickTE · Situational14%9 snaps
31Emanuel WilsonRB · Situational9%6 snaps
80Bo MeltonWR · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 4
Jacob MonkCJaire AlexanderCBJavon BullardSSMalik HeathWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Malik WillisQB
Seattle Seahawks
48 dressed · 7 inactive
72Abraham LucasT · Every snap100%59 snaps
63Sataoa LaumeaT · Every snap100%59 snaps
70Laken TomlinsonG · Full-time95%56 snaps
67Charles CrossT · Full-time95%56 snaps
11Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · Full-time95%56 snaps
14DK MetcalfWR · Full-time93%55 snaps
61Jalen SundellT · Full-time81%48 snaps
26Zach CharbonnetRB · Full-time80%47 snaps
16Tyler LockettWR · Heavy rotation76%45 snaps
7Geno SmithQB · Heavy rotation59%35 snaps
87Noah FantTE · Heavy rotation59%35 snaps
6Sam HowellQB · Rotational41%24 snaps
88AJ BarnerTE · Rotational29%17 snaps
19Jake BoboWR · Rotational25%15 snaps
51Olu OluwatimiC · Situational19%11 snaps
86Pharaoh BrownTE · Situational17%10 snaps
25Kenny McIntoshRB · Situational15%9 snaps
83Dareke YoungWR · Situational5%3 snaps
36George HolaniRB · Situational5%3 snaps
64Christian HaynesG · Situational5%3 snaps
65Michael JerrellT · Situational5%3 snaps
Inactive · 7
Tre BrownCBArtie BurnsCBTrevis GipsonOLBJaren HallQBKenneth Walker IIIRBBrady RussellTECody WhiteWR
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Packers←Seahawks→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Love pass+9% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(14:17) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 8-J.Jacobs to SEA 46 for 13 yards (13-E.Jones). PENALTY on SEA-27-T.Woolen, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 46.
Q1 14:17 · Packers · 2nd & 6 at GB 41 · gained 13 · +2.36 EP · +8.8% win probability
154 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 168 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 154 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 163. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 80 yards from the GB 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
168 of 168 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
168
EPA per play
-0.05
Success rate
46%
Yards
577
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR53-0.3475%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36-0.0456%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17+0.3824%
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.0429%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Packers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Packers6Seahawks0
Packers7Seahawks0
Touchdown12 plays, from the Packers 37 to the Seahawks 1
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 46
Packers13Seahawks0
Packers14Seahawks0
Touchdown10 plays, from the Packers 20 to the Seahawks 13
The period ended6 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the Packers 48
2nd quarter41 plays
Packers14Seahawks3
Field goal4 plays, from the Packers 32 to the Packers 23
Packers17Seahawks3
Field goal9 plays, from the Packers 29 to the Seahawks 20
Intercepted14 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Packers 12
Packers20Seahawks3
Field goal13 plays, from the Packers 14 to the Seahawks 3
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt11 plays, from the Seahawks 38 to the Packers 36
Punt4 plays, from the Packers 7 to the Packers 16
Packers20Seahawks6
Field goal5 plays, from the Packers 46 to the Packers 24
Packers23Seahawks6
Field goal10 plays, from the Packers 30 to the Seahawks 5
The period ended5 plays
4th quarter57 plays
Punt1 play
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 43 to midfield
Punt4 plays
Fumble lost2 plays
Packers23Seahawks12
Packers23Seahawks13
Touchdown6 plays, from the Packers 45 to the Packers 24
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 34 to the Packers 38
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 32 to the Seahawks 37
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Packers 16 to the Seahawks 39
Intercepted2 plays
Packers29Seahawks13
Packers30Seahawks13
Touchdown7 plays, from the Seahawks 27 to the Seahawks 22
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 35 to the Seahawks 38
Punt4 plays, from the Packers 16 to the Packers 24
The period ended4 plays, from the Seahawks 32 to the Seahawks 43
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Packers -3
Closing total
48
Packers moneyline
-162
Seahawks moneyline
+136
Packers closed -3 and covered, winning by 17.
Total closed 48; the game landed 43 — under by 5.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lumen Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Cold, 45°F at kickoff; still at 4 mph out of the east; overcast.
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
Packers 10 days · Seahawks 7 days
Coaches
Matt LaFleur vs Mike Macdonald
1st · 9:23
SEA +4% win prob
(9:23) 8-J.Jacobs up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 5:27GB +3% win prob(5:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-S.Howell pass deep right intended for 87-N.Fant INTERCEPTED by 56-E.Cooper at SEA 49. 56-E.Cooper to SEA 27 for 22 yards (6-S.Howell).
