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2024 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 15, 2024 · Empower Field at Mile High
Final
ColtsIndianapolis13
BY 18final margin
BroncosDenver31
Indianapolis Colts 13 at Denver Broncos 31. Final.
Broncos -4.5 ✓O 43.5 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 15
Denver Broncos 31, Colts 13 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q4 12:39, 2nd and 7 — 27.6 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 12:39 · 2nd and 7
Unnamed on the sheet
Broncos
(12:39) (Shotgun) 10-A.Mitchell to 50 for -10 yards (15-N.Bonitto). FUMBLES (15-N.Bonitto), RECOVERED by DEN-15-N.Bonitto at 50. 15-N.Bonitto for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DEN-15-N.Bonitto, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Broncos closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 18.
Denver Broncos 31–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q4 12:39, Broncos +27.6% win probability on one snap.
27.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Matt GayColtsQ2 0:10(:10) 7-M.Gay 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
14.5pts
Michael PittmanBroncosQ3 7:22(7:22) 5-A.Richardson pass short right to 11-M.Pittman to IND 33 for 6 yards (6-P.Locke). FUMBLES (6-P.Locke), RECOVERED by DEN-93-D.Jones at IND 31.
15.6pts
What separated them
Red zone
Broncos won this one — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Colts at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Colts owned this one and still lost it — 7 chunk plays, against Broncos at 3 chunk plays.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Broncos won this one — 3 giveaways, against Colts at 4 giveaways.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Broncos won this one — 6 of 16 on third down, against Colts at 4 of 15 on third down.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
MarketModelmodel higher on Broncoshigher on Colts173 of 183 plays carry both curves
(12:39) (Shotgun) 10-A.Mitchell to 50 for -10 yards (15-N.Bonitto). FUMBLES (15-N.Bonitto), RECOVERED by DEN-15-N.Bonitto at 50. 15-N.Bonitto for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DEN-15-N.Bonitto, Unsportsmanlike Conduct,
Swing +27.6 for BroncosExpected points +9.65 for BroncosThe model had Colts 3 points higher than the market did.play 141
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 12:39IND +28% win prob(12:39) (Shotgun) 10-A.Mitchell to 50 for -10 yards (15-N.Bonitto). FUMBLES (15-N.Bonitto), RECOVERED by DEN-15-N.Bonitto at 50. 15-N.Bonitto for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DEN-15-N.Bonitto, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
3rd · 7:22IND +16% win prob(7:22) 5-A.Richardson pass short right to 11-M.Pittman to IND 33 for 6 yards (6-P.Locke). FUMBLES (6-P.Locke), RECOVERED by DEN-93-D.Jones at IND 31.
2nd · 0:10DEN +14% win prob(:10) 7-M.Gay 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
4th · 13:58DEN +14% win prob(13:58) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short middle to 45-N.Adkins for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 14:20IND +13% win prob(14:20) 8-R.Sanchez punts 54 yards to DEN 24, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 19-M.Mims pushed ob at IND 15 for 61 yards (59-C.McGrone).
3rd · 13:18IND +12% win prob(13:18) 79-M.Peart reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix pass deep right intended for 14-C.Sutton INTERCEPTED by 33-S.Womack at IND 38. 33-S.Womack to IND 38 for no gain (14-C.Sutton).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Nate Adkins's 15-yard touchdown catch with 13:58 left in the 4th put Denver Broncos ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
4th5:54Courtland Sutton·20-yd TD catch20-yard touchdown catchfrom Bo Nixfrom Bo Nix+713–31
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Coltscategory by categoryBroncos
Colts4–5Broncos
310Total yards196
4.3Yards per play3.4
29%Success rate33%
27%Third-down rate38%
0Red-zone touchdowns3
7Explosive plays3
16First downs10
2Sacks taken1
4Turnovers3
The read
Broncos ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.49 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.45Colts: −0.45 expected points added per play
−0.31Broncos: −0.31 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.49Colts: −0.49 expected points added per play
−0.35Broncos: −0.35 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.39Colts: −0.39 expected points added per play
−0.25Broncos: −0.25 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 72 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Broncos’s 58 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Colts 3, Broncos 3.
NoteColts outgained Broncos 310-196 but lost the turnover battle 4-3. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
DEN's play-action rate, 37.8%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 2.1 points clear of the next team along.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 17 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.7 vs their 12.4%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−1.29× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Broncos20.9%
right on their number · +1.5 vs their 19.4%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+0.21× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
NoteIND's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 2.7%, 9.7 points below their season mean of 12.4% and 1.3 times their own 7.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Colts←Broncos→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Mitchell to−28% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(12:39) (Shotgun) 10-A.Mitchell to 50 for -10 yards (15-N.Bonitto). FUMBLES (15-N.Bonitto), RECOVERED by DEN-15-N.Bonitto at 50. 15-N.Bonitto for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DEN-15-N.Bonitto, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Q4 12:39 · Colts · 2nd & 7 at DEN 40 · lost 10 · -9.65 EP · −28.3% win probability
171 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 183 plays across 30 drives, personnel groupings on 171 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 178. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 30 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 70 yards from the IND 30 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
183 of 183 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
183
EPA per play
-0.28
Success rate
36%
Yards
503
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR55-0.4660%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42-0.2962%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.6038%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.0271%
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Broncos1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Colts0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
183 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
183 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Colts6Broncos0
Colts7Broncos0
Touchdown12 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Broncos 23
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Intercepted8 plays, from the Broncos 30 to the Colts 38
The period ended13 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Broncos 21
2nd quarter55 plays
Colts10Broncos0
Field goal2 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Broncos 30 to the Broncos 44
Punt4 plays, from the Colts 4 to the Colts 8
Colts10Broncos6
Colts10Broncos7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Broncos 46 to the Colts 13
Intercepted5 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Colts 42
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 38 to the Broncos 43
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 14 to the Colts 18
The period ended6 plays, from the Broncos 28 to the Broncos 36
Colts13Broncos7
Field goal8 plays, from the Broncos 47 to the Broncos 27
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter42 plays
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Broncos 30 to the Broncos 44
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSix defenders
Drive ended2 plays, from the Colts 38 to the Broncos 41
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Broncos 38
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 18 to the Colts 21
Intercepted3 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.6 seconds
Fumble lost1 play
Colts13Broncos10
Field goal4 plays, from the Colts 31 to the Colts 26
Punt6 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Broncos 48 to the Colts 41
The period ended3 plays, from the Colts 20 to the Colts 25
4th quarter52 plays
Punt2 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Colts13Broncos16
Colts13Broncos17
Touchdown3 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a trick play, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defenders
Colts13Broncos23
Touchdown5 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Broncos 40
Colts13Broncos24
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Broncos 45
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 45 to the Colts 49
Intercepted3 plays, from the Colts 20 to the Colts 35
Colts13Broncos30
Colts13Broncos31
Touchdown10 plays, from the Colts 35 to the Colts 20
The period ended13 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Broncos 20
The period ended4 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Broncos 24
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Broncos -4.5
Closing total
43.5
Colts moneyline
+195
Broncos moneyline
-238
Broncos closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 18.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 44 — over by 0.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 51°F at kickoff; still at 5 mph out of the north-west; clear.
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
Colts 14 days · Broncos 13 days
Coaches
Shane Steichen vs Sean Payton
3rd · 7:28IND +9% win prob(7:28) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep right intended for 14-C.Sutton INTERCEPTED by 20-N.Cross at IND 22. 20-N.Cross ran ob at IND 27 for 5 yards.
2nd · 11:51DEN +9% win prob(11:51) 9-R.Dixon punts 57 yards to IND 8, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 6-A.Gould ran ob at IND 24 for 16 yards (52-J.Elliss). PENALTY on IND-35-C.Lammons, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at IND 8. Penalty on IND-31-T.Goodson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.
Coltscategory by categoryBroncos
Colts6
Broncos0
