2024 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 15, 2024 · Empower Field at Mile High

Indianapolis Colts

Denver BroncosWinner

DEN -4.5 ✓O 43.5 ✓15 mph windBroncos closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 18.

Denver Broncos 31–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q4 12:39, IND +28% win probability on one snap. Played in 15 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 12:39IND 13 — DEN 23IND ball · 2nd & 7DEN 65%

(12:39) (Shotgun) 10-A.Mitchell to 50 for -10 yards (15-N.Bonitto). FUMBLES (15-N.Bonitto), RECOVERED by DEN-15-N.Bonitto at 50. 15-N.Bonitto for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DEN-15-N.Bonitto, Unsportsmanlike Conduct,

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 12:39IND +28% win prob(12:39) (Shotgun) 10-A.Mitchell to 50 for -10 yards (15-N.Bonitto). FUMBLES (15-N.Bonitto), RECOVERED by DEN-15-N.Bonitto at 50. 15-N.Bonitto for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DEN-15-N.Bonitto, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Q3 · 7:22IND +16% win prob(7:22) 5-A.Richardson pass short right to 11-M.Pittman to IND 33 for 6 yards (6-P.Locke). FUMBLES (6-P.Locke), RECOVERED by DEN-93-D.Jones at IND 31.
Q2 · 0:10DEN +14% win prob(:10) 7-M.Gay 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Q4 · 13:58DEN +14% win prob(13:58) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short middle to 45-N.Adkins for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 10:58IND Touchdown
(10:58) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson right end for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: IND 7 — DEN 0
Q2 · 14:53IND Field goal
(14:53) 7-M.Gay 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Score after this play: IND 10 — DEN 0
Q2 · 5:33DEN Touchdown
(5:33) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short middle to 82-A.Trautman for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: IND 10 — DEN 7
Q2 · 0:10IND Field goal
(:10) 7-M.Gay 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Score after this play: IND 13 — DEN 7
Q3 · 5:22DEN Field goal
(5:22) 3-W.Lutz 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Score after this play: IND 13 — DEN 10
Q4 · 13:58DEN Touchdown
(13:58) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short middle to 45-N.Adkins for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: IND 13 — DEN 17
Q4 · 12:39DEN Touchdown
(12:39) (Shotgun) 10-A.Mitchell to 50 for -10 yards (15-N.Bonitto). FUMBLES (15-N.Bonitto), RECOVERED by DEN-15-N.Bonitto at 50. 15-N.Bonitto for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DEN-15-N.Bonitto, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. (kick good)
Score after this play: IND 13 — DEN 24
Q4 · 5:54DEN Touchdown
(5:54) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep right to 14-C.Sutton for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: IND 13 — DEN 31

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Colts	Broncos
Offensive plays	72	58
Total yards	310 (edge)	196
Yards per play	4.3 (edge)	3.4
Expected points added / play	-0.45	-0.31 (edge)
Success rate	29%	33% (edge)
Dropback rate	60%	64%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.49	-0.35 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.39	-0.25 (edge)
Third downs	4/15	6/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	16 (edge)	10
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	4	3 (edge)

Colts outgained Broncos 310–196 but lost the turnover battle 4–3. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · IND

Anthony RichardsonQB

17/38, 172 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-15.8 expected points added · -16.1% completion over expected

Passing · DEN

Bo NixQB

20/33, 130 yds, 3 TD, 3 INT

-14.8 expected points added · -9.1% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

22 att, 107 yds, 0 TD

-4.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · IND

Anthony RichardsonQB

7 att, 46 yds, 1 TD

1.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · IND

Michael PittmanWR

6/9 for 58 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · -5.9 expected points added

Receiving · IND

Kylen GransonTE

3/4 for 47 yds, 0 TD

11% of team targets · 1.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	IND	IND 30	12	70	4:08	Touchdown +7
2	DEN	DEN 30	8	32	3:46	Interception
3	IND	IND 30	14	52	7:17	Field goal +3
4	DEN	DEN 30	7	5	3:10	Punt
5	IND	IND 4	4	3	1:39	Punt
6	DEN	DEN 46	10	44	4:31	Touchdown +7
7	IND	IND 30	5	12	1:32	Interception
8	DEN	DEN 38	4	5	0:55	Punt
9	IND	IND 14	4	4	0:22	Punt
10	DEN	DEN 28	4	8	1:02	Punt
11	IND	DEN 47	6	15	1:32	Field goal +3
12	DEN	DEN 30	2	0	0:06	End of half
13	DEN	DEN 30	4	9	1:48	Interception
14	IND	IND 38	2	46	0:36	Turnover on downs
15	DEN	DEN 20	5	18	2:13	Punt
16	IND	IND 18	4	5	2:12	Punt
17	DEN	IND 39	3	0	0:49	Interception
18	IND	IND 27	1	4	0:08	Fumble
19	DEN	IND 31	4	5	1:56	Field goal +3
20	IND	IND 30	6	5	1:31	Punt
21	DEN	DEN 48	7	15	2:43	Punt
22	IND	IND 20	4	2	2:03	Punt
23	DEN	IND 15	3	15	0:10	Touchdown +7
24	IND	IND 30	4	7	1:22	Defensive touchdown
25	IND	IND 30	6	20	2:19	Turnover on downs
26	DEN	DEN 45	4	6	1:31	Punt
27	IND	IND 20	2	15	1:00	Interception
28	DEN	IND 35	7	30	1:51	Touchdown +7
29	IND	IND 30	12	50	3:51	Turnover on downs
30	DEN	DEN 20	3	4	1:57	End of game

7 of 30 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 70 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Anthony Richardson	17/38	172	0	2	2	-15.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jonathan Taylor	22	107	4.9	0	-4.8
Anthony Richardson	7	46	6.6	1	1.2
Trey Sermon	1	3	3.0	0	-0.1
Tyler Goodson	1	3	3.0	0	1.6
Adonai Mitchell	1	-10	-10.0	0	-9.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Michael Pittman	6	9	58	25%	-5.9
Kylen Granson	3	4	47	11%	1.6
Josh Downs	3	8	32	22%	-1.6
Anthony Gould	1	1	23	3%	1.9
Trey Sermon	2	2	9	6%	-0.0
Jonathan Taylor	1	2	4	6%	-0.6
Alec Pierce	0	4	0	11%	-4.3
Will Mallory	0	1	0	3%	-4.5
Adonai Mitchell	0	4	0	11%	-3.2
Anthony Richardson	1	1	-1	3%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
E.J. Speed	6	5	0.0	0	0
Zaire Franklin	6	3	0.0	1	1
Grover Stewart	3	2	0.0	0	1
Nick Cross	4	1	0.0	1	1
Jaylon Jones	2	2	0.0	0	1
Julian Blackmon	2	2	0.0	0	0
Grant Stuard	3	0	0.0	0	0
DeForest Buckner	2	1	1.0	0	0
Cameron McGrone	2	0	0.0	0	0
Samuel Womack	2	0	0.0	1	2

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Bo Nix	20/33	130	3	3	1	-14.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Bo Nix	8	23	2.9	2.7
Jaleel McLaughlin	7	21	3.0	-1.8
Javonte Williams	6	15	2.5	-1.7
Audric Estime	5	13	2.6	-1.7
Marvin Mims	1	0	0.0	-0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Courtland Sutton	3	9	32	1	28%	-5.5
Adam Trautman	2	2	20	1	6%	3.0
Marvin Mims	4	4	20	0	13%	0.8
Nate Adkins	1	1	15	1	3%	2.5
Jaleel McLaughlin	3	3	13	0	9%	-1.3
Troy Franklin	2	5	9	0	16%	-3.1
Javonte Williams	2	3	8	0	9%	-1.6
Lucas Krull	2	2	8	0	6%	-0.4
Audric Estime	1	1	5	0	3%	-0.1
Devaughn Vele	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.6
Lil'Jordan Humphrey	0	1	0	0	3%	-4.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Brandon Jones	8	1	0.0	1	3
Justin Strnad	2	7	0.0	0	0
Cody Barton	4	4	0.0	0	0
Malcolm Roach	1	5	0.0	0	0
Nik Bonitto	3	2	0.5	0	0
Ja'Quan McMillian	0	4	0.0	0	1
Dondrea Tillman	2	1	1.0	0	0
Kris Abrams-Draine	2	1	0.0	0	1
Jonah Elliss	3	0	0.0	0	0
Jonathon Cooper	3	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DEN -4.5
Closing total: 43.5
IND moneyline: +195
DEN moneyline: -238

Broncos closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 18.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 44 — over by 0.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 55°F, wind 15 mph
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: IND 14 days · DEN 13 days
Coaches: Shane Steichen vs Sean Payton

Wind at 15 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.