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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:49 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 15, 2024 · FirstEnergy Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 15
It turned at Q1 13:46, 4th and 3 — 15.2 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 13:46 · 4th and 3
Unnamed on the sheet
Chiefs
(13:46) 14-M.Araiza punts 38 yards to CLE 25, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-J.Proche to CLE 25 for no gain (30-C.Roland-Wallace). FUMBLES (30-C.Roland-Wallace), touched at CLE 23, RECOVERED by KC-34-S.Perine at CLE 21.
Kansas City Chiefs 21–7. Biggest swing: Q1 13:46, Chiefs +15.2% win probability on one snap. Played in 18.4 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
15.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Chiefs won this one — no giveaways, against Browns at 5 giveaways.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chiefs won this one — -0.08 expected points per snap, against Browns at -0.52 expected points per snap.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Chiefs won this one — -0.02 expected points per dropback, against Browns at -0.65 expected points per dropback.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Chiefs won this one — 2 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Browns at 0 touchdowns on 1 trip.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 8.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 26 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
(13:46) 14-M.Araiza punts 38 yards to CLE 25, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-J.Proche to CLE 25 for no gain (30-C.Roland-Wallace). FUMBLES (30-C.Roland-Wallace), touched at CLE 23, RECOVERED by KC-34-S.Perine at CLE 21.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
JuJu Smith-Schuster's 7-yard touchdown catch with 12:18 left in the 1st put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
JuJu Smith-Schuster7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick MahomesLead never changed again+77–04 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Chiefscategory by categoryBrowns
Chiefs ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.65 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 73 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Browns’s 59 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 5, Browns 1.
Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.52.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CLE's sack or hit rate, 28.6%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 1.5 points clear of the next team along.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points.
KC's play-action rate turned over: 16.7% in week 14 against 28.6% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -12 pts to 22 pts
Over Expected room →Chiefs3.9 ptsright on their number · −1.1 vs their 5.0 pts, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.17× that swing) · 73 snaps
Browns1.1 ptsright on their number · +0.7 vs their 0.3 pts, and they swing ±4.5 week to week (+0.16× that swing) · 59 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 35% to 88%
Tendencies room →Chiefs50.0%inside their normal wobble · −8.4 vs their 58.4%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (−0.95× that swing) · 54 early downs
Browns63.0%right on their number · −0.6 vs their 63.7%, and they swing ±9.3 week to week (−0.07× that swing) · 46 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 4% to 41%
Tendencies room →Chiefs28.6%leaned — faked the run · +7.3 vs their 21.3%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+1.33× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Browns19.5%right on their number · −3.0 vs their 22.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.42× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -35% to 124%
Fourth Down room →Chiefs16.7%inside their normal wobble · −13.1 vs their 29.8%, and they swing ±24.4 week to week (−0.54× that swing) · 6 fourth-and-short calls
Browns—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 59.1%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 71%
Tendencies room →Chiefs34.1%right on their number · −1.7 vs their 35.8%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (−0.19× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Browns19.0%inside their normal wobble · −12.0 vs their 31.0%, and they swing ±15.6 week to week (−0.77× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 43%
Tendencies room →Chiefs26.8%inside their normal wobble · +9.0 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (+0.92× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Browns28.6%leaned — got home · +10.0 vs their 18.6%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+1.20× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
KC's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 28.6%, 7.3 points above their season mean of 21.3% and 1.3 times their own 5.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Who moved the needle
Passing · KC
19/38, 159 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
-4.5 expected points added · -9.1% completion over expected
Passing · CLE
16/25, 146 yds, 0 TD, 3 INT
-20.2 expected points added · -2.9% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Jerome Ford banked 12.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry JeudyWR · Alpha Receiver | 21.8 | +3.9 | 95% | 90% | 44% | 44% | 11/14, 108 yd |
| Xavier WorthyWR · Alpha Receiver | 19.6 | −0.1 | 81% | 81% | 29% | 27% | 3 car, 30 yd, 1 TD · 6/11, 46 yd |
| Jerome FordRB | 18.4 | +12.2 | 58% | 63% | 6% | 0% | 7 car, 84 yd, 1 TD · 2/2, 20 yd |
| Patrick MahomesQB · Starter QB | 15.8 | −1.6 | 89% | — | 0% | — | 19/38, 159 yd, 2 TD · 2 car, 14 yd |
| Noah GrayTE · Rotational Receiver | 10.1 | +0.8 | 55% | 45% | 13% | 8% | 2/5, 21 yd, 1 TD |
| DeAndre HopkinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.6 | −0.7 | 45% | 45% | 16% | 20% | 5/6, 36 yd |
| JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.7 | +2.1 | 51% | 57% | 8% | 4% | 1/3, 7 yd, 1 TD |
| Travis KelceTE · Featured Receiver | 6.7 | −4.7 | 89% | 90% | 21% | 26% | 4/8, 27 yd |
| Jordan AkinsTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.0 | +1.7 | 53% | 61% | 13% | 3% | 3/4, 30 yd |
| Kareem HuntRB · Committee Back | 5.9 | −3.9 | 37% | 29% | 5% | 0% | 13 car, 45 yd · 1/2, 4 yd |
| Isiah PachecoRB | 5.7 | −2.6 | 37% | 31% | 3% | 1% | 13 car, 32 yd · 1/1, 15 yd |
| Samaje PerineRB | 4.4 | +2.4 | 25% | 36% | 3% | 0% | 1 car, 11 yd · 1/1, 23 yd |
| Mike WoodsWR | 2.7 | −1.7 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Nick ChubbRB | 2.1 | −3.7 | 34% | 24% | 3% | 2% | 9 car, 41 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Elijah MooreWR · Featured Receiver | 1.9 | −8.4 | 85% | 83% | 19% | 32% | 2/6, -1 yd |
| Carson WentzQB | 0.8 | −0.2 | 11% | — | 0% | — | 2/2, 20 yd · 3 car, 0 yd |
| Dorian Thompson-RobinsonQB | 0.3 | −3.4 | 23% | — | 0% | — | 4/9, 18 yd, 1 INT · 3 car, 16 yd |
| Jamari ThrashWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.5 | 18% | 20% | 3% | 4% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| James ProcheWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Pierre StrongRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Blake WhiteheartTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.5 | 37% | 22% | 3% | 8% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Justin WatsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.7 | 56% | 45% | 3% | 15% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Nikko RemigioWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jameis WinstonQB · Starter QB | -0.4 | −8.0 | 77% | — | 0% | — | 16/25, 146 yd, 3 INT · 2 car, -2 yd |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(13:46) 14-M.Araiza punts 38 yards to CLE 25, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-J.Proche to CLE 25 for no gain (30-C.Roland-Wallace). FUMBLES (30-C.Roland-Wallace), touched at CLE 23, RECOVERED by KC-34-S.Perine at CLE 21.
Q1 13:46 · Chiefs · 4th & 3 at KC 37 · gained nothing · +5.65 EP · +16.3% win probability
165 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 177 plays across 29 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 172. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
4 of 29 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 87 yards from the KC 13 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Chiefs6
Browns0Chiefs7Browns0Chiefs13Browns0Chiefs14Browns0Chiefs20Browns0Chiefs21Browns0Chiefs21Browns6Chiefs21Browns7Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Chiefs at Browns, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 19/38 | 159 | 2 | 0 | 0 | −4.5 |
| Carson Wentz | 2/2 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 13 | 45 | 3.5 | 0 | −2.9 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 13 | 32 | 2.5 | 0 | −4.2 |
| Xavier Worthy |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Worthy | 6 | 11 | 46 | 0 | 29% | −0.8 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 5 | 6 | 36 | 0 | 16% | +1.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Roland-Wallace | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Drue Tranquill | 2 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Bolton | 3 | 2 | 0.5 | 1 | 1 |
| Joshua Williams |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 16/25 | 146 | 0 | 3 | 5 | −20.2 |
| Dorian Thompson-Robinson | 4/9 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0 | −7.5 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_15_KC_CLE
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Chiefs closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 14.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 28 — under by 13.5.
Conditions and crew
Wind at 18.4 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
| 3 |
| 30 |
| 10.0 |
| 1 |
| +2.8 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 | +1.7 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Carson Wentz | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −3.5 |
| Travis Kelce | 4 | 8 | 27 | 0 | 21% | −0.3 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 | 3% | +2.3 |
| Noah Gray | 2 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 13% | −0.3 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 3% | +1.4 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 1 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 8% | −1.7 |
| Kareem Hunt | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 5% | −0.8 |
| Justin Watson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.6 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Tershawn Wharton | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Danna | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trent McDuffie | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 3 |
| Leo Chenal | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chamarri Conner | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryan Cook | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Ford | 7 | 84 | 12.0 | 1 | +4.6 |
| Nick Chubb | 9 | 41 | 4.6 | 0 | −7.3 |
| Dorian Thompson-Robinson | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Jameis Winston | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Jeudy | 11 | 14 | 108 | 0 | 44% | +7.1 |
| Jordan Akins | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 13% | +2.8 |
| Jerome Ford | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 6% | −0.2 |
| Mike Woods | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 9% | −5.3 |
| Nick Chubb | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −5.3 |
| Blake Whiteheart | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −4.8 |
| Jamari Thrash | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Elijah Moore | 2 | 6 | -1 | 0 | 19% | −10.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Delpit | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Hicks | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Denzel Ward | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Juan Thornhill | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cameron Mitchell | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Devin Bush | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah McGuire | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Garrett | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Mohamoud Diabate | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shelby Harris | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
