2024 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 15, 2024 · FirstEnergy Stadium

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

Cleveland Browns

KC -4.5 ✓U 41.5 ✓18 mph windChiefs closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 14.

Kansas City Chiefs 21–7. Biggest swing: Q1 13:46, CLE +15% win probability on one snap. Played in 18 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 13:46KC 0 — CLE 0KC ball · 4th & 3KC 63%

(13:46) 14-M.Araiza punts 38 yards to CLE 25, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-J.Proche to CLE 25 for no gain (30-C.Roland-Wallace). FUMBLES (30-C.Roland-Wallace), touched at CLE 23, RECOVERED by KC-34-S.Perine at CLE 21.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 13:46CLE +15% win prob(13:46) 14-M.Araiza punts 38 yards to CLE 25, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-J.Proche to CLE 25 for no gain (30-C.Roland-Wallace). FUMBLES (30-C.Roland-Wallace), touched at CLE 23, RECOVERED by KC-34-S.Perine at CLE 21.
Q1 · 13:51KC +6% win prob(13:51) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short right to 83-N.Gray.
Q1 · 1:44KC +5% win prob(1:44) 68-M.Dunn reported in as eligible. 5-J.Winston pass deep middle intended for 8-E.Moore INTERCEPTED by 6-B.Cook at KC -2. Touchback.
Q2 · 3:28KC +4% win prob(3:28) (Shotgun) 5-J.Winston pass incomplete deep left to 8-E.Moore (13-N.Johnson).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 12:18KC Touchdown
(12:18) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 9-J.Smith-Schuster for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 7 — CLE 0
Q2 · 4:54KC Touchdown
(4:54) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 83-N.Gray for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE-95-M.Garrett was injured during the play. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 14 — CLE 0
Q3 · 13:04KC Touchdown
(13:04) (Shotgun) 1-X.Worthy left end for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 21 — CLE 0
Q3 · 3:26CLE Touchdown
(3:26) (Shotgun) 34-J.Ford up the middle for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 21 — CLE 7

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chiefs	Browns
Offensive plays	73	59
Total yards	313 (edge)	267
Yards per play	4.3	4.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.08 (edge)	-0.52
Success rate	41% (edge)	37%
Dropback rate	58%	69%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.02 (edge)	-0.65
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.15 (edge)	-0.22
Third downs	7/18 (edge)	4/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	18 (edge)	14
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	5
Turnovers	0 (edge)	5

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.52.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

19/38, 159 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

-4.5 expected points added · -9.1% completion over expected

Passing · CLE

Jameis WinstonQB

16/25, 146 yds, 0 TD, 3 INT

-20.2 expected points added · -2.9% completion over expected

Rushing · CLE

Jerome FordRB

7 att, 84 yds, 1 TD

4.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · KC

Kareem HuntRB

13 att, 45 yds, 0 TD

-2.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CLE

Jerry JeudyWR

11/14 for 108 yds, 0 TD

44% of team targets · 7.1 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Xavier WorthyWR

6/11 for 46 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · -0.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	KC	KC 30	5	7	1:26	Punt
2	KC	CLE 21	4	21	1:22	Touchdown +7
3	CLE	CLE 27	8	16	4:28	Punt
4	KC	KC 24	5	18	2:02	Punt
5	CLE	CLE 20	9	44	4:07	Interception
6	KC	KC 20	4	9	1:24	Punt
7	CLE	CLE 30	4	0	1:14	Punt
8	KC	KC 23	4	4	0:47	Punt
9	CLE	CLE 33	4	6	1:28	Punt
10	KC	KC 13	15	87	6:56	Touchdown +7
11	CLE	KC 49	5	9	1:24	Turnover on downs
12	KC	KC 41	9	48	3:01	Missed field goal
13	CLE	CLE 20	1	0	0:21	End of half
14	CLE	CLE 30	2	0	0:14	Interception
15	KC	CLE 34	5	34	1:47	Touchdown +7
16	CLE	CLE 33	2	7	0:17	Fumble
17	KC	CLE 44	4	0	0:56	Punt
18	CLE	CLE 7	9	44	4:54	Punt
19	KC	KC 9	7	10	2:40	Punt
20	CLE	KC 49	3	49	0:56	Touchdown +7
21	KC	KC 30	5	0	0:26	Punt
22	CLE	CLE 11	6	11	2:29	Punt
23	KC	KC 26	4	0	0:21	Punt
24	CLE	CLE 33	4	38	1:49	Interception
25	KC	KC 20	10	41	5:14	Turnover on downs
26	CLE	CLE 39	6	10	2:34	Punt
27	KC	KC 15	7	34	2:03	Punt
28	CLE	CLE 12	8	33	2:08	Interception
29	KC	CLE 18	2	0	1:12	End of game

4 of 29 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 87 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	19/38	159	2	0	0	-4.5
Carson Wentz	2/2	20	0	0	0	2.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Kareem Hunt	13	45	3.5	0	-2.9
Isiah Pacheco	13	32	2.5	0	-4.2
Xavier Worthy	3	30	10.0	1	2.8
Patrick Mahomes	2	14	7.0	0	1.7
Samaje Perine	1	11	11.0	0	-0.3
Carson Wentz	3	0	0.0	0	-3.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Xavier Worthy	6	11	46	0	29%	-0.8
DeAndre Hopkins	5	6	36	0	16%	1.4
Travis Kelce	4	8	27	0	21%	-0.3
Samaje Perine	1	1	23	0	3%	2.3
Noah Gray	2	5	21	1	13%	-0.3
Isiah Pacheco	1	1	15	0	3%	1.4
JuJu Smith-Schuster	1	3	7	1	8%	-1.7
Kareem Hunt	1	2	4	0	5%	-0.8
Justin Watson	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Christian Roland-Wallace	3	3	0.0	0	0
Drue Tranquill	2	3	0.5	0	0
Nick Bolton	3	2	0.5	1	1
Joshua Williams	3	2	0.0	0	1
Tershawn Wharton	3	1	1.0	0	0
Michael Danna	1	3	0.0	0	0
Trent McDuffie	4	0	0.0	1	3
Leo Chenal	3	1	0.0	0	0
Chamarri Conner	3	1	0.0	0	0
Bryan Cook	3	0	0.0	1	1

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jameis Winston	16/25	146	0	3	5	-20.2
Dorian Thompson-Robinson	4/9	18	0	1	0	-7.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jerome Ford	7	84	12.0	1	4.6
Nick Chubb	9	41	4.6	0	-7.3
Dorian Thompson-Robinson	3	16	5.3	0	0.7
Jameis Winston	2	-2	-1.0	0	-1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Jerry Jeudy	11	14	108	44%	7.1
Jordan Akins	3	4	30	13%	2.8
Jerome Ford	2	2	20	6%	-0.2
Mike Woods	2	3	7	9%	-5.3
Nick Chubb	0	1	0	3%	-5.3
Blake Whiteheart	0	1	0	3%	-4.8
Jamari Thrash	0	1	0	3%	-0.5
Elijah Moore	2	6	-1	19%	-10.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Grant Delpit	3	5	0
Jordan Hicks	4	3	1
Denzel Ward	6	0	0
Juan Thornhill	4	2	1
Cameron Mitchell	5	0	1
Devin Bush	3	1	0
Isaiah McGuire	1	3	0
Myles Garrett	2	1	1
Mohamoud Diabate	1	2	0
Shelby Harris	2	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -4.5
Closing total: 41.5
KC moneyline: -230
CLE moneyline: +190

Chiefs closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 14.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 28 — under by 13.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 40°F, wind 18 mph
Referee: Tra Blake
Rest: KC 7 days · CLE 7 days
Coaches: Andy Reid vs Kevin Stefanski

Wind at 18 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.