For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Rams.
MarketModelmodel higher on 49ershigher on Rams150 of 160 plays carry both curves
Q4 · 5:20Rams 9 — 49ers 6SF ball · 2nd & 10SF 51%
Rams 49%49ers 51%
(5:20) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep right intended for 15-J.Jennings INTERCEPTED by 24-D.Williams at LA 0. Touchback.
Swing −23.0 for 49ersExpected points −3.86 for 49ersModel and market agree here.play 137
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 5:20LA +23% win prob(5:20) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep right intended for 15-J.Jennings INTERCEPTED by 24-D.Williams at LA 0. Touchback.
4th · 12:28SF +13% win prob(12:28) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 17-P.Nacua to SF 16 for 51 yards (7-C.Ward).
4th · 3:01SF +10% win prob(3:01) 23-K.Williams right end to SF 38 for 9 yards (69-E.Anderson).
4th · 6:40SF +9% win prob(6:40) (Shotgun) 31-I.Guerendo left guard to LA 33 for 10 yards (26-K.Kinchens; 48-O.Speights).
3rd · 5:06SF +7% win prob(5:06) 9-M.Stafford up the middle to SF 35 for 2 yards (97-N.Bosa; 54-F.Warner).
4th · 8:43SF +7% win prob(8:43) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 14-R.Pearsall to SF 45 for 16 yards (4-A.Witherspoon).
1st · 12:48
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Joshua Karty's 27-yard field goal with 9:31 left in the 4th put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Lead
1st10:06Jake Moody·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap T.Pepper+30–3
2nd1:10Joshua Karty·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder E.Evans · snap A.Ward+33–3
3rd8:28Jake Moody·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap T.Pepper+33–6
4th13:41Joshua Karty·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder E.Evans · snap A.Ward+36–6
4th9:31Joshua Karty·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder E.Evans · snap A.WardLead never changed again+39–6
4th0:20Joshua Karty·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder E.Evans · snap A.Ward+312–6
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ramscategory by category49ers
Rams7–049ers
302Total yards191
4.6Yards per play3.6
40%Success rate30%
27%Third-down rate25%
0Red-zone touchdowns0
3Explosive plays3
14First downs11
0Sacks taken3
0Turnovers1
The read
Rams ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.10Rams: −0.10 expected points added per play
−0.2849ers: −0.28 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.14Rams: −0.14 expected points added per play
−0.3149ers: −0.31 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.06Rams: −0.06 expected points added per play
−0.2449ers: −0.24 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 65 snaps at a 43% dropback rate against 49ers’s 53 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Rams 3, 49ers 0.
NoteRams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.28.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
SF's blitz rate sent turned over: 5.9% in week 14 against 35.7% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
28 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.8 points.
SF's play-action rate turned over: 39.3% in week 14 against 8.8% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 3.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.1 points.
SF's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 50.0% in week 14 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 20.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 16 pts
right on their number · −2.8 vs their 11.6%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.45× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
49ers17.9%
inside their normal wobble · +4.1 vs their 13.8%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.54× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
NoteLA's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 32.7%, 20.7 points below their season mean of 53.3% and 1.7 times their own 12.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Rams←49ers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Purdy pass−23% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(5:20) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep right intended for 15-J.Jennings INTERCEPTED by 24-D.Williams at LA 0. Touchback.
Q4 5:20 · 49ers · 2nd & 10 at LA 33 · gained nothing · -3.86 EP · −22.9% win probability
148 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 160 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 148 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 155. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 69 yards from the LA 20 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
160 of 160 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
160
EPA per play
-0.11
Success rate
38%
Yards
493
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49-0.1535%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR23-0.5778%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR13-0.0377%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.3050%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.3833%
Rams1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR6-0.3383%
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6+0.3933%
49ers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
160 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
160 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the 49ers 31
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 29 to the Rams 34
Rams049ers3
Field goal5 plays, from the 49ers 26 to the Rams 35
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 34 to the Rams 41
Punt4 plays, from the 49ers 19 to the 49ers 25
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 20 to the Rams 27
Punt7 plays, from the 49ers 22 to midfield
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 16 to the Rams 19
The period ended3 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the 49ers 31
2nd quarter39 plays
Punt6 plays, from the 49ers 36 to midfield
Punt11 plays, from the Rams 3 to the Rams 41
Punt7 plays, from the 49ers 10 to the 49ers 22
Rams349ers3
Field goal8 plays, from midfield to the 49ers 30
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the 49ers 36
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter31 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 24 to the Rams 29
Rams349ers6
Field goal10 plays, from the 49ers 37 to the Rams 27
The period ended16 plays, from the Rams 30 to the 49ers 11
4th quarter47 plays
Rams649ers6
Field goal4 plays
Punt6 plays, from the 49ers 20 to the 49ers 26
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Rams949ers6
Field goal5 plays, from the Rams 33 to the 49ers 8
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
Intercepted9 plays, from the 49ers 28 to the Rams 33
Rams1249ers6
Field goal18 plays, from the Rams 20 to the 49ers 11
The period ended5 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
