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2024 Week 15 · Thu, Dec 12, 2024 · Levi's Stadium

Los Angeles RamsWinner

12

San Francisco 49ers

6

SF -3 upsetU 48.5 ✓

Los Angeles Rams 12–6. Biggest swing: Q4 5:20, LA +23% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3SF ↑LA ↓
Q4 · 5:20LA 9 — SF 6SF ball · 2nd & 10SF 51%

(5:20) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep right intended for 15-J.Jennings INTERCEPTED by 24-D.Williams at LA 0. Touchback.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 5:20LA +23% win prob(5:20) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep right intended for 15-J.Jennings INTERCEPTED by 24-D.Williams at LA 0. Touchback.
  2. Q4 · 12:28SF +13% win prob(12:28) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 17-P.Nacua to SF 16 for 51 yards (7-C.Ward).
  3. Q4 · 3:01SF +10% win prob(3:01) 23-K.Williams right end to SF 38 for 9 yards (69-E.Anderson).
  4. Q4 · 6:40SF +9% win prob(6:40) (Shotgun) 31-I.Guerendo left guard to LA 33 for 10 yards (26-K.Kinchens; 48-O.Speights).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 10:06SF Field goal

    (10:06) 4-J.Moody 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-40-P.O'Donnell.

    Score after this play: LA 0 — SF 3
  2. Q2 · 1:10LA Field goal

    (1:10) 16-J.Karty 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

    Score after this play: LA 3 — SF 3
  3. Q3 · 8:28SF Field goal

    (8:28) 4-J.Moody 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-40-P.O'Donnell.

    Score after this play: LA 3 — SF 6
  4. Q4 · 13:41LA Field goal

    (13:41) 16-J.Karty 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

    Score after this play: LA 6 — SF 6
  5. Q4 · 9:31LA Field goal

    (9:31) 16-J.Karty 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

    Score after this play: LA 9 — SF 6
  6. Q4 · 0:20LA Field goal

    (:20) 16-J.Karty 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

    Score after this play: LA 12 — SF 6

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricRams49ers
Offensive plays6553
Total yards302 (edge)191
Yards per play4.6 (edge)3.6
Expected points added / play-0.10 (edge)-0.28
Success rate40% (edge)30%
Dropback rate43%64%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.14 (edge)-0.31
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.06 (edge)-0.24
Third downs4/15 (edge)3/12
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)33
First downs gained on snaps14 (edge)11
Sacks taken0 (edge)3
Turnovers0 (edge)1

Rams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.28.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LA

Matthew StaffordQB

16/27, 160 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-5.9 expected points added · -4.3% completion over expected

Passing · SF

Brock PurdyQB

14/31, 142 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-10.6 expected points added · -20.0% completion over expected

Rushing · LA

Kyren WilliamsRB

29 att, 108 yds, 0 TD

-1.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SF

Isaac GuerendoRB

16 att, 57 yds, 0 TD

-2.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LA

Puka NacuaWR

7/8 for 97 yds, 0 TD

31% of team targets · 3.7 expected points added

Receiving · SF

George KittleTE

4/7 for 61 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 1.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1SFSF 30510:57Punt
2LALA 29561:15Punt
3SFSF 265392:47Field goal +3
4LALA 34571:40Punt
5SFSF 19461:34Punt
6LALA 20471:41Punt
7SFSF 227243:06Punt
8LALA 16430:50Punt
9SFSF 307252:33Punt
10LALA 311385:53Punt
11SFSF 10772:52Punt
12LA507203:47Field goal +3
13SFSF 30560:36Punt
14LALA 22180:29End of half
15LALA 24551:48Punt
16SFSF 3710344:49Field goal +3
17LALA 3018809:45Field goal +3
18SFSF 205161:10Punt
19LALA 335593:00Field goal +3
20SFSF 289394:14Interception
21LALA 2013694:56Field goal +3
22SF503-60:18End of game

6 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Rams gained 80 scrimmage yards over 18 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Matthew Stafford16/27160000-5.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Kyren Williams291083.70-1.8
Matthew Stafford4184.502.9
Puka Nacua2115.500.6
Blake Corum351.70-2.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Puka Nacua7897031%3.7
Colby Parkinson2521019%-1.6
Hunter Long221708%1.6
Blake Corum2315012%-0.0
Tutu Atwell12608%-1.5
Kyren Williams22408%-1.9
Demarcus Robinson01004%-1.2
Cooper Kupp030012%-3.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Christian Rozeboom621.000
Omar Speights240.000
Kobie Turner322.000
Ahkello Witherspoon410.003
Byron Young220.000
Quentin Lake210.002
Xavier Smith120.000
Braden Fiske110.000
Jordan Whittington200.000
Kamren Kinchens020.001

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Brock Purdy14/31142013-10.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Isaac Guerendo16573.60-2.7
Brock Purdy133.000.6
Deebo Samuel231.50-2.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
George Kittle4761023%1.2
Jauan Jennings2931029%-5.2
Isaac Guerendo4418013%-0.2
Deebo Samuel3716023%-3.6
Ricky Pearsall1416013%0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Fred Warner770.001
Dre Greenlaw350.000
Talanoa Hufanga260.000
Ji'Ayir Brown420.000
Charvarius Ward320.001
Nick Bosa220.000
Deommodore Lenoir220.002
Jordan Elliott120.000
Tashaun Gipson210.001
Evan Anderson120.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
SF -3
Closing total
48.5
LA moneyline
+130
SF moneyline
-155

49ers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 48.5; the game landed 18 — under by 30.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
53°F, wind 4 mph
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
LA 4 days · SF 4 days
Coaches
Sean McVay vs Kyle Shanahan

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.