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Game Center
2024 Week 15 · Thu, Dec 12, 2024 · Levi's Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 15
It turned at Q4 5:20, 2nd and 10, on Darious Williams — 23.0 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Los Angeles Rams 12–6. Biggest swing: Q4 5:20, Rams +23.0% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 5:20 · 2nd and 10
Darious Williams
Rams
(5:20) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep right intended for 15-J.Jennings INTERCEPTED by 24-D.Williams at LA 0. Touchback.
23.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Rams won this one — 40% of snaps stayed on schedule, against 49ers at 30% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Rams won this one — -0.10 expected points per snap, against 49ers at -0.28 expected points per snap.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Rams won this one — no giveaways, against 49ers at 1 giveaway.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Rams won this one — -0.06 expected points per carry, against 49ers at -0.24 expected points per carry.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Rams.
(5:20) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep right intended for 15-J.Jennings INTERCEPTED by 24-D.Williams at LA 0. Touchback.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Joshua Karty's 27-yard field goal with 9:31 left in the 4th put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Joshua Karty27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder E.Evans · snap A.WardLead never changed again+39–66 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Ramscategory by category49ers
Rams ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 65 snaps at a 43% dropback rate against 49ers’s 53 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Rams 3, 49ers 0.
Rams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.28.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
SF's blitz rate sent turned over: 5.9% in week 14 against 35.7% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
28 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.8 points. · +1.4σ from their own normal
SF's play-action rate turned over: 39.3% in week 14 against 8.8% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 3.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.1 points. · −1.2σ from their own normal
SF's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 50.0% in week 14 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 20.8 points. · −1.0σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Rams-10.7 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −6.8 vs their -4.0 pts, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−1.01× that swing) · 65 snaps
49ers-3.7 ptsright on their number · −1.4 vs their -2.3 pts, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−0.20× that swing) · 53 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 22% to 86%
Tendencies room →Rams32.7%leaned — ran early · −20.7 vs their 53.3%, and they swing ±12.0 week to week (−1.72× that swing) · 49 early downs
49ers61.0%inside their normal wobble · +6.5 vs their 54.5%, and they swing ±12.5 week to week (+0.52× that swing) · 41 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 57%
Tendencies room →Rams28.6%right on their number · −2.2 vs their 30.8%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (−0.22× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
49ers8.8%leaned — dropped back clean · −10.5 vs their 19.4%, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (−1.16× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34% to 97%
Fourth Down room →Rams11.1%inside their normal wobble · −20.5 vs their 31.6%, and they swing ±25.7 week to week (−0.80× that swing) · 9 fourth-and-short calls
49ers0.0%leaned — took the kick · −21.7 vs their 21.7%, and they swing ±20.8 week to week (−1.04× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 52%
Tendencies room →Rams23.5%right on their number · −4.3 vs their 27.8%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−0.47× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
49ers35.7%leaned — sent pressure · +15.6 vs their 20.2%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (+1.45× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 33%
Tendencies room →Rams8.8%right on their number · −2.8 vs their 11.6%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.45× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
49ers17.9%inside their normal wobble · +4.1 vs their 13.8%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.54× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
LA's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 32.7%, 20.7 points below their season mean of 53.3% and 1.7 times their own 12.0-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 5 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 5
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · LA
16/27, 160 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-5.9 expected points added · -4.3% completion over expected
Passing · SF
14/31, 142 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-10.6 expected points added · -20.0% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Nobody beat their own workload — this one paid exactly what it cost.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac GuerendoRB · Bell Cow Back | 11.5 | −2.6 | 76% | 68% | 13% | 0% | 16 car, 57 yd · 4/4, 18 yd |
| George KittleTE · Featured Receiver | 10.1 | −1.9 | 96% | 97% | 23% | 32% | 4/7, 61 yd |
| Jauan JenningsWR · Alpha Receiver | 5.1 | −9.7 | 94% | 97% | 29% | 33% | 2/9, 31 yd |
| Deebo SamuelWR · Featured Receiver | 4.9 | −7.5 | 78% | 82% | 23% | 15% | 2 car, 3 yd · 3/7, 16 yd |
| Brock PurdyQB · Starter QB | 4.0 | −8.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 14/31, 142 yd, 1 INT · 1 car, 3 yd |
| Ricky PearsallWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | −5.5 | 56% | 68% | 13% | 21% | 1/4, 16 yd |
| Eric SaubertTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 31% | 18% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Brayden WillisTE | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Jacob CowingWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(5:20) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep right intended for 15-J.Jennings INTERCEPTED by 24-D.Williams at LA 0. Touchback.
Q4 5:20 · 49ers · 2nd & 10 at LA 33 · gained nothing · -3.86 EP · −22.9% win probability
148 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 160 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 148 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 155. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 69 yards from the LA 20 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
160 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
160 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Rams0
49ers3Rams349ers3Rams349ers6Rams649ers6How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Rams949ers6How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Rams1249ers6Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Rams at 49ers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 16/27 | 160 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −5.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | 29 | 108 | 3.7 | 0 | −1.8 |
| Matthew Stafford | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 | +2.9 |
| Puka Nacua |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | 7 | 8 | 97 | 0 | 31% | +3.7 |
| Colby Parkinson | 2 | 5 | 21 | 0 | 19% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Rozeboom | 6 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Omar Speights | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kobie Turner |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 14/31 | 142 | 0 | 1 | 3 | −10.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_15_LA_SF
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
49ers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 48.5; the game landed 18 — under by 30.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 2 |
| 11 |
| 5.5 |
| 0 |
| +0.6 |
| Blake Corum | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 | −2.0 |
| −1.6 |
| Hunter Long | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 8% | +1.6 |
| Blake Corum | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 12% | −0.0 |
| Tutu Atwell | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 8% | −1.5 |
| Kyren Williams | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8% | −1.9 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.2 |
| Cooper Kupp | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12% | −3.5 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 2.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Ahkello Witherspoon | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Byron Young | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quentin Lake | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Xavier Smith | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Braden Fiske | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Whittington | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kamren Kinchens | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Isaac Guerendo | 16 | 57 | 3.6 | 0 | −2.7 |
| Brock Purdy | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Deebo Samuel | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | −2.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 4 | 7 | 61 | 0 | 23% | +1.2 |
| Jauan Jennings | 2 | 9 | 31 | 0 | 29% | −5.2 |
| Isaac Guerendo | 4 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 13% | −0.2 |
| Deebo Samuel | 3 | 7 | 16 | 0 | 23% | −3.6 |
| Ricky Pearsall | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 13% | +0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Warner | 7 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dre Greenlaw | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Talanoa Hufanga | 2 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ji'Ayir Brown | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Charvarius Ward | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nick Bosa | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deommodore Lenoir | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jordan Elliott | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tashaun Gipson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Evan Anderson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
