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Houston Texans 20, Dolphins 12 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 0:25, 2nd and 6, on Calen Bullock — 18.6 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:25 · 2nd and 6
Calen Bullock
Texans
(:25) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle intended for 10-T.Hill INTERCEPTED by 21-C.Bullock at HOU 27. 21-C.Bullock to MIA 5 for 68 yards (28-D.Achane).
Dome
Texans closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 8.
Houston Texans 20–12. Biggest swing: Q2 0:25, Texans +18.6% win probability on one snap.
18.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jason SandersDolphinsQ2 11:40(11:40) 7-J.Sanders 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-Z.Triner, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
11.6pts
Unnamed on the sheetDolphinsQ2 0:53(:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud FUMBLES (Aborted) at HOU 44, touched at HOU 46, RECOVERED by MIA-20-J.Brooks at HOU 49. 20-J.Brooks to HOU 38 for 11 yards (69-S.Mason).
12.7pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Texans won this one — 2 giveaways, against Dolphins at 4 giveaways.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Texans won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Dolphins at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Texans won this one — 5 of 12 on third down, against Dolphins at 4 of 13 on third down.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Dolphins owned this one and still lost it — 44% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Texans at 40% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Dolphinsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 5 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Texanshigher on Dolphins148 of 158 plays carry both curves
(:25) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle intended for 10-T.Hill INTERCEPTED by 21-C.Bullock at HOU 27. 21-C.Bullock to MIA 5 for 68 yards (28-D.Achane).
Swing +18.6 for TexansExpected points +6.63 for TexansModel and market agree here.play 78
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:25MIA +19% win prob(:25) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle intended for 10-T.Hill INTERCEPTED by 21-C.Bullock at HOU 27. 21-C.Bullock to MIA 5 for 68 yards (28-D.Achane).
2nd · 0:53MIA +13% win prob(:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud FUMBLES (Aborted) at HOU 44, touched at HOU 46, RECOVERED by MIA-20-J.Brooks at HOU 49. 20-J.Brooks to HOU 38 for 11 yards (69-S.Mason).
2nd · 11:40HOU +12% win prob(11:40) 7-J.Sanders 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-Z.Triner, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
3rd · 12:17HOU +11% win prob(12:17) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 29-M.Stewart. 33-D.Ogunbowale right end to MIA 9 for 35 yards (32-P.McMorris). FUMBLES (32-P.McMorris), RECOVERED by MIA-32-P.McMorris at MIA 9. PENALTY on MIA-22-E.Campbell, Unnecessary Roughness, 4 yards, enforced at MIA 9. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Punt formation) Direct snap to 29-M.Stewart. 33-D.Ogunbowale right end to MIA 9 for 35 yards (32-P.McMorris). PENALTY on MIA-22-E.Campbell, Unnecessary Roughness, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 9.
4th · 10:34MIA +11% win prob(10:34) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right intended for 10-T.Hill INTERCEPTED by 24-D.Stingley at HOU 8. 24-D.Stingley pushed ob at HOU 18 for 10 yards (10-T.Hill).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Nico Collins's 6-yard touchdown catch with 6:51 left in the 2nd put Houston Texans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:12Ka'imi Fairbairn·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Weeks+30–3
2nd11:40Jason Sanders·55-yd field goal55-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap Z.Triner+33–3
3rd4:37Jonnu Smith·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua Tagovailoafrom Tua Tagovailoa · kick no good, wide left+612–20
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Dolphinscategory by categoryTexans
Dolphins4–4Texans
224Total yards183
3.6Yards per play3.9
44%Success rate40%
31%Third-down rate42%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
2Explosive plays2
15First downs11
3Sacks taken4
4Turnovers2
The read
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Texans, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.22Dolphins: −0.22 expected points added per play
−0.20Texans: −0.20 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.21Dolphins: −0.21 expected points added per play
−0.21Texans: −0.21 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.24Dolphins: −0.24 expected points added per play
−0.17Texans: −0.17 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 62 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Texans’s 47 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 3, Texans 3.
NoteDolphins outgained Texans 224-183 but lost the turnover battle 4-2. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 24 pts
leaned — got home · +6.1 vs their 12.6%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+1.03× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Texans9.3%
leaned — stayed blocked · −6.6 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−1.02× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
NoteHOU's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 10.9 pts, 9.7 points above their season mean of 1.2 pts and 1.5 times their own 6.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Dolphins←Texans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Tagovailoa pass−19% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:25) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle intended for 10-T.Hill INTERCEPTED by 21-C.Bullock at HOU 27. 21-C.Bullock to MIA 5 for 68 yards (28-D.Achane).
Q2 0:25 · Dolphins · 2nd & 6 at HOU 39 · gained nothing · -6.63 EP · −18.7% win probability
146 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 158 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 146 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 153. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 73 yards from the MIA 27 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
158 of 158 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
158
EPA per play
-0.14
Success rate
44%
Yards
405
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27-0.4081%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR26-0.5585%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR21-0.1552%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16-0.0744%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.1169%
Dolphins1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Texans1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Texans1 RB, 0 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
158 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
158 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Dolphins 26 to the Dolphins 38
Dolphins0Texans3
Field goal8 plays, from the Texans 19 to the Dolphins 26
Punt6 plays, from the Dolphins 18 to the Dolphins 26
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 38 to the Texans 45
The period ended8 plays, from the Dolphins 18 to the Texans 42
2nd quarter49 plays
Dolphins3Texans3
Field goal6 plays, from the Texans 37 to the Texans 25
Punt5 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Dolphins 26 to the Dolphins 47
Dolphins3Texans9
Dolphins3Texans10
Touchdown6 plays, from the Dolphins 28 to the Dolphins 6
Dolphins6Texans10
Field goal11 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Texans 14
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Texans 49
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
The period ended6 plays
Dolphins6Texans13
Field goal4 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Dolphins6Texans19
Dolphins6Texans20
Touchdown11 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Dolphins 4
Dolphins12Texans20
Touchdown16 plays, from the Dolphins 27 to the Texans 7
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Texans 38
The period ended5 plays, from the Dolphins 27 to the Dolphins 37
4th quarter37 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Intercepted10 plays, from the Dolphins 45 to the Texans 20
Punt11 plays, from the Texans 18 to the Texans 44
Punt6 plays
The period ended5 plays, from the Texans 31 to the Texans 33
Intercepted1 play
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Texans -2.5
Closing total
46.5
Dolphins moneyline
+130
Texans moneyline
-155
Texans closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 8.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 32 — under by 14.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
NRG Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · astroturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Alex Kemp
Rest
Dolphins 7 days · Texans 14 days
Coaches
Mike McDaniel vs DeMeco Ryans
2nd · 9:33MIA +10% win prob(9:33) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa sacked at MIA 36 for -11 yards (51-W.Anderson). FUMBLES (51-W.Anderson) [51-W.Anderson], touched at MIA 34, RECOVERED by HOU-98-T.Settle at MIA 30. 98-T.Settle to MIA 28 for 2 yards (76-J.Carman).
3rd · 4:37HOU +10% win prob(4:37) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 9-J.Smith for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on HOU-4-K.Lassiter, Illegal Contact, declined.
4th · 12:44HOU +8% win prob(12:44) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 9-J.Smith pushed ob at HOU 25 for 9 yards (21-C.Bullock).
