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2024 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 15, 2024 · NRG Stadium

Miami Dolphins

12

Houston TexansWinner

20

HOU -2.5 ✓U 46.5 ✓Dome

Houston Texans 20–12. Biggest swing: Q2 0:25, MIA +19% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3HOU ↑MIA ↓
Q2 · 0:25MIA 6 — HOU 10MIA ball · 2nd & 6HOU 65%

(:25) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle intended for 10-T.Hill INTERCEPTED by 21-C.Bullock at HOU 27. 21-C.Bullock to MIA 5 for 68 yards (28-D.Achane).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 0:25MIA +19% win prob(:25) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle intended for 10-T.Hill INTERCEPTED by 21-C.Bullock at HOU 27. 21-C.Bullock to MIA 5 for 68 yards (28-D.Achane).
  2. Q2 · 0:53MIA +13% win prob(:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud FUMBLES (Aborted) at HOU 44, touched at HOU 46, RECOVERED by MIA-20-J.Brooks at HOU 49. 20-J.Brooks to HOU 38 for 11 yards (69-S.Mason).
  3. Q2 · 11:40HOU +12% win prob(11:40) 7-J.Sanders 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-Z.Triner, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
  4. Q3 · 12:17HOU +11% win prob(12:17) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 29-M.Stewart. 33-D.Ogunbowale right end to MIA 9 for 35 yards (32-P.McMorris). FUMBLES (32-P.McMorris), RECOVERED by MIA-32-P.McMorris at MIA 9. PENALTY on MIA-22-E.Campbell, Unnecessary Roughness, 4 yards, enforced at MIA 9. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Punt formation) Direct snap to 29-M.Stewart. 33-D.Ogunbowale right end to MIA 9 for 35 yards (32-P.McMorris). PENALTY on MIA-22-E.Campbell, Unnecessary Roughness, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 9.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 7:12HOU Field goal

    (7:12) 15-K.Fairbairn 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: MIA 0 — HOU 3
  2. Q2 · 11:40MIA Field goal

    (11:40) 7-J.Sanders 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-Z.Triner, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    Score after this play: MIA 3 — HOU 3
  3. Q2 · 6:51HOU Touchdown

    (6:51) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 3 — HOU 10
  4. Q2 · 2:00MIA Field goal

    (2:00) 7-J.Sanders 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-Z.Triner, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    Score after this play: MIA 6 — HOU 10
  5. Q2 · 0:03HOU Field goal

    (:03) 15-K.Fairbairn 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: MIA 6 — HOU 13
  6. Q3 · 11:09HOU Touchdown

    (11:09) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 12-N.Collins for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 6 — HOU 20
  7. Q3 · 4:37MIA Touchdown

    (4:37) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 9-J.Smith for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on HOU-4-K.Lassiter, Illegal Contact, declined.

    Score after this play: MIA 12 — HOU 20

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricDolphinsTexans
Offensive plays6247
Total yards224 (edge)183
Yards per play3.63.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.22-0.20 (edge)
Success rate44% (edge)40%
Dropback rate69%68%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.21 (edge)-0.21
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.24-0.17 (edge)
Third downs4/135/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)22
First downs gained on snaps15 (edge)11
Sacks taken3 (edge)4
Turnovers42 (edge)

Dolphins outgained Texans 224–183 but lost the turnover battle 4–2. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIA

Tua TagovailoaQB

29/40, 196 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT

-8.9 expected points added · -0.8% completion over expected

Passing · HOU

C.J. StroudQB

18/26, 131 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

-6.7 expected points added · +3.9% completion over expected

Rushing · MIA

Devon AchaneRB

12 att, 41 yds, 0 TD

-2.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · HOU

Joe MixonRB

12 att, 23 yds, 0 TD

-3.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIA

Malik WashingtonWR

5/6 for 52 yds, 0 TD

15% of team targets · 2.3 expected points added

Receiving · MIA

Jonnu SmithTE

9/11 for 48 yds, 1 TD

28% of team targets · 8.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1MIAMIA 268113:40Punt
2HOUHOU 198554:11Field goal +3
3MIAMIA 18531:12Punt
4HOUHOU 384-61:42Punt
5MIAMIA 1812547:40Field goal +3
6HOUHOU 305-51:28Punt
7MIAMIA 263-70:42Fumble
8HOUMIA 285232:40Touchdown +7
9MIAMIA 3011474:48Field goal +3
10HOUHOU 305191:15Fumble
11MIAHOU 38240:29Interception
12HOUMIA 5300:13Field goal +3
13HOUHOU 3011653:58Touchdown +7
14MIAMIA 2713636:32Touchdown +6
15HOUHOU 30512:20Punt
16MIAMIA 2713536:44Interception
17HOUHOU 1810366:06Punt
18MIAMIA 224-41:30Punt
19HOUHOU 314-51:06Punt
20MIAMIA 23100:07Interception
21HOUHOU 49301:37End of game

7 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 65 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Miami Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Tua Tagovailoa29/40196133-8.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Devon Achane12413.40-2.2
Raheem Mostert681.30-2.1
Jaylen Wright133.00-0.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Malik Washington5652015%2.3
Jonnu Smith91148128%8.8
Tyreek Hill2736018%-9.9
Devon Achane7735018%0.6
Raheem Mostert331308%-0.2
Durham Smythe11803%0.6
River Cracraft11603%0.0
Jaylen Waddle02005%-1.4
Grant DuBose11-203%-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jordyn Brooks620.000
Anthony Walker431.000
Kendall Fuller410.000
Kader Kohou220.001
Quinton Bell210.000
Jevon Holland210.000
Emmanuel Ogbah210.000
Calais Campbell210.000
Tyreek Hill200.000
Chop Robinson111.500

Houston Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
C.J. Stroud18/26131204-6.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Dare Ogunbowale13535.005.3
Joe Mixon12231.90-3.9
Tank Dell11515.001.2
C.J. Stroud640.70-5.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Joe Mixon5633024%-1.6
Tank Dell222608%2.5
John Metchie2417016%-1.5
Nico Collins4617224%1.6
Dalton Schultz2413016%-0.9
Xavier Hutchinson111304%1.0
Robert Woods221208%0.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Henry To'oTo'o470.500
Jimmie Ward450.001
Christian Harris440.000
Kamari Lassiter510.000
Calen Bullock330.012
Derek Stingley220.022
Tommy Togiai120.000
Will Anderson121.000
Danielle Hunter211.500
Eric Murray210.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
HOU -2.5
Closing total
46.5
MIA moneyline
+130
HOU moneyline
-155

Texans closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 8.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 32 — under by 14.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
NRG Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · astroturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Alex Kemp
Rest
MIA 7 days · HOU 14 days
Coaches
Mike McDaniel vs DeMeco Ryans