2024 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 15, 2024 · State Farm Stadium
New England Patriots
17
Arizona CardinalsWinner
30
Arizona Cardinals 30–17. Biggest swing: Q1 10:02, ARI +6% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(10:02) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 18-M.Harrison to NE 39 for 23 yards (25-M.Jones).
Highest-leverage plays
- Q1 · 10:02ARI +6% win prob(10:02) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 18-M.Harrison to NE 39 for 23 yards (25-M.Jones).
- Q1 · 10:44NE +6% win prob(10:44) 13-J.Slye 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
- Q1 · 12:24NE +6% win prob(12:24) (Shotgun) 4-A.Gibson left tackle pushed ob at ARI 18 for 15 yards (23-S.Murphy-Bunting). PENALTY on NE-64-L.Robinson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 33 - No Play.
- Q1 · 4:58ARI +6% win prob(4:58) (Shotgun) 6-J.Conner left tackle pushed ob at NE 27 for 53 yards (53-C.Elliss).
How the points landed
Scoring summary
- Q1 · 7:18ARI Field goal
(7:18) 38-C.Ryland 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-10-M.Palardy.
Score after this play: NE 0 — ARI 3 - Q1 · 1:31ARI Touchdown
(1:31) 4-G.Dortch left end to NE 2 for 6 yards (33-A.Jennings; 5-J.Peppers). FUMBLES (33-A.Jennings), recovered by ARI-73-J.Williams at NE -9. TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 0 — ARI 10 - Q2 · 2:06NE Field goal
(2:06) 13-J.Slye 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Score after this play: NE 3 — ARI 10 - Q2 · 0:20ARI Field goal
(:20) 38-C.Ryland 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-10-M.Palardy.
Score after this play: NE 3 — ARI 13 - Q3 · 9:12ARI Field goal
(9:12) 38-C.Ryland 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-10-M.Palardy.
Score after this play: NE 3 — ARI 16 - Q4 · 10:42ARI Touchdown
(10:42) 59-J.Gaines reported in as eligible. 6-J.Conner up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 3 — ARI 23 - Q4 · 8:22NE Touchdown
(8:22) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 3-D.Douglas for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 10 — ARI 23 - Q4 · 3:29ARI Touchdown
(3:29) (Shotgun) 6-J.Conner up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 10 — ARI 30 - Q4 · 2:00NE Touchdown
(2:00) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye scrambles right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 17 — ARI 30
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Patriots | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 49 | 63 |
| Total yards | 311 | 396 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 6.3 (edge) | 6.3 |
| Expected points added / play | 0.04 | 0.18 (edge) |
| Success rate | 55% (edge) | 43% |
| Dropback rate | 57% | 57% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.17 | 0.22 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.13 | 0.14 (edge) |
| Third downs | 0/6 | 10/15 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 8 (edge) | 6 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 17 | 18 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 2 | 0 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 1 | 0 (edge) |
Cardinals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs 0.04.
Who moved the needle
Top performers
Passing · ARI
23/30, 224 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
11.5 expected points added · +5.9% completion over expected
Passing · NE
19/23, 202 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
3.4 expected points added · +12.0% completion over expected
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NE | NE 30 | 8 | 41 | 4:21 | Missed field goal | |
| 2 | ARI | ARI 43 | 6 | 31 | 3:26 | Field goal +3 | |
| 3 | NE | NE 30 | 5 | -5 | 2:15 | Punt | |
| 4 | ARI | ARI 20 | 7 | 78 | 3:37 | Turnover on downs +7 | |
| 5 | NE | NE 30 | 5 | 3 | 2:04 | Punt | |
| 6 | ARI | ARI 19 | 9 | 27 | 4:46 | Punt | |
| 7 | NE | NE 20 | 12 | 48 | 7:30 | Field goal +3 | |
| 8 | ARI | ARI 30 | 11 | 68 | 1:45 | Field goal +3 | |
| 9 | NE | NE 21 | 2 | 2 | 0:16 | End of half | |
| 10 | ARI | ARI 30 | 11 | 44 | 5:53 | Field goal +3 | |
| 11 | NE | NE 30 | 10 | 66 | 4:13 | Turnover on downs | |
| 12 | ARI | ARI 4 | 6 | 11 | 3:07 | Punt | |
| 13 | NE | NE 33 | 4 | 11 | 1:16 | Interception | |
| 14 | ARI | ARI 45 | 10 | 55 | 4:52 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 15 | NE | NE 25 | 8 | 75 | 2:25 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 16 | ARI | ARI 30 | 11 | 70 | 4:47 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 17 | NE | NE 30 | 8 | 70 | 1:32 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 18 | ARI | NE 39 | 5 | 12 | 1:55 | End of game |
9 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cardinals gained 78 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a turnover on downs.
Full stat lines
Box score
New England Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 19/23 | 202 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3.4 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 13 | 69 | 5.3 | 0 | 0.3 |
| Antonio Gibson | 7 | 33 | 4.7 | 0 | -1.4 |
| Drake Maye | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 1 | -0.1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendrick Bourne | 3 | 3 | 44 | 0 | 13% | 2.1 |
| Austin Hooper | 3 | 3 | 38 | 0 | 13% | 2.9 |
| Antonio Gibson | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 | 9% | 1.9 |
| Hunter Henry | 4 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 17% | 0.6 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 2 | 5 | 19 | 0 | 22% | -4.2 |
| Marcus Jones | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 4% | 1.7 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 4% | 1.4 |
| Demario Douglas | 3 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 13% | 0.8 |
| Ja'Lynn Polk | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | -0.5 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Dugger | 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anfernee Jennings | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jahlani Tavai | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Jones | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jabrill Peppers | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sione Takitaki | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Elliss | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Jones | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daniel Ekuale | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Austin | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
Arizona Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 23/30 | 224 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11.5 |
| Clayton Tune | 2/2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.1 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 16 | 110 | 6.9 | 2 | 4.1 |
| Trey Benson | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 | -0.4 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 | -0.4 |
| Kyler Murray | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 | -3.7 |
| Greg Dortch | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 1.5 |
| Clayton Tune | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | -1.9 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey McBride | 9 | 10 | 87 | 0 | 32% | 4.1 |
| Greg Dortch | 3 | 3 | 60 | 0 | 10% | 6.1 |
| Marvin Harrison | 2 | 6 | 32 | 0 | 19% | -1.5 |
| James Conner | 5 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 16% | 2.5 |
| Michael Wilson | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 6% | 0.4 |
| Tip Reiman | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 10% | -0.4 |
| Elijah Higgins | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | 0.0 |
| Zay Jones | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% | -0.2 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyzir White | 5 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Budda Baker | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Thompson | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Julian Okwara | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Krys Barnes | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darius Robinson | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dadrion Taylor-Demerson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Starling Thomas | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Max Melton | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sean Murphy-Bunting | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- ARI -6
- Closing total
- 46.5
- NE moneyline
- +210
- ARI moneyline
- -258
Cardinals closed -6 and covered, winning by 13.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 47 — over by 0.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- State Farm Stadium
- Roof / surface
- closed · grass
- Kickoff weather
- Indoors — weather neutralized
- Referee
- Ron Torbert
- Rest
- NE 14 days · ARI 7 days
- Coaches
- Jerod Mayo vs Jonathan Gannon