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polling · 1800s tick · as of 8:35 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 15, 2024 · State Farm Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 15
It turned at Q1 10:02, 2nd and 15, on Marvin Harrison — 6.1 win-probability points to the Cardinals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Arizona Cardinals 30–17. Biggest swing: Q1 10:02, Cardinals +6.1% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 10:02 · 2nd and 15
Marvin Harrison
Cardinals
(10:02) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 18-M.Harrison to NE 39 for 23 yards (25-M.Jones).
6.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Cardinals won this one — 10 of 15 on third down, against Patriots at 0 of 6 on third down.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — 55% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cardinals at 43% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Cardinals won this one — +0.14 expected points per carry, against Patriots at -0.13 expected points per carry.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Cardinals won this one — no giveaways, against Patriots at 1 giveaway.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 5.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
(10:02) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 18-M.Harrison to NE 39 for 23 yards (25-M.Jones).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Chad Ryland's 49-yard field goal with 7:18 left in the 1st put Arizona Cardinals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Chad Ryland49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder M.Palardy · snap A.BrewerLead never changed again+30–39 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Patriotscategory by categoryCardinals
Cardinals ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 49 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 63 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 3, Cardinals 4.
Cardinals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs 0.04.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
NE's sack or hit rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 2.7 points clear of the next team along.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.2 points. · −1.4σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Patriots-5.5 ptsright on their number · −2.4 vs their -3.1 pts, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−0.45× that swing) · 49 snaps
Cardinals1.5 ptsinside their normal wobble · +4.3 vs their -2.7 pts, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+0.57× that swing) · 63 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 28% to 86%
Tendencies room →Patriots58.5%right on their number · +2.2 vs their 56.3%, and they swing ±11.2 week to week (+0.20× that swing) · 41 early downs
Cardinals50.0%inside their normal wobble · −6.7 vs their 56.7%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (−0.59× that swing) · 48 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 3% to 47%
Tendencies room →Patriots21.4%inside their normal wobble · +4.4 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (+0.86× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Cardinals22.2%inside their normal wobble · −4.9 vs their 27.1%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.64× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -54% to 118%
Fourth Down room →Patriots—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 32.2%.
Cardinals0.0%leaned — took the kick · −27.3 vs their 27.3%, and they swing ±21.8 week to week (−1.25× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 69%
Tendencies room →Patriots30.6%right on their number · −4.6 vs their 35.2%, and they swing ±13.1 week to week (−0.35× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Cardinals39.3%leaned — sent pressure · +12.8 vs their 26.5%, and they swing ±12.8 week to week (+1.00× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 29%
Tendencies room →Patriots0.0%leaned — stayed blocked · −10.2 vs their 10.2%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−1.42× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Cardinals7.1%inside their normal wobble · −4.9 vs their 12.0%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−0.74× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
NE's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 10.2 points below their season mean of 10.2% and 1.4 times their own 7.2-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Arizona Cardinals
48 dressed · 4 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 4
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · ARI
23/30, 224 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
11.5 expected points added · +5.9% completion over expected
Passing · NE
19/23, 202 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
3.4 expected points added · +12.0% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
James Conner banked 4.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James ConnerRB · Committee Back | 30.8 | +4.2 | 71% | 75% | 16% | 0% | 16 car, 110 yd, 2 TD · 5/5, 28 yd |
| Trey McBrideTE · Alpha Receiver | 17.7 | −2.5 | 91% | 100% | 32% | 35% | 9/10, 87 yd |
| Drake MayeQB · Starter QB | 17.5 | +2.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/23, 202 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 4 car, 14 yd, 1 TD |
| Demario DouglasWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.1 | +4.1 | 61% | 57% | 13% | 3% | 3/3, 11 yd, 1 TD |
| Kyler MurrayQB · Starter QB | 10.1 | −7.9 | 90% | — | 0% | — | 23/30, 224 yd · 5 car, 11 yd |
| Greg DortchWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.6 | +2.5 | 26% | 36% | 10% | 0% | 1 car, 6 yd · 3/3, 60 yd |
| Rhamondre StevensonRB · Committee Back | 9.5 | +0.6 | 65% | 64% | 4% | 0% | 13 car, 69 yd · 1/1, 16 yd |
| Antonio GibsonRB | 8.4 | +0.9 | 31% | 29% | 9% | 0% | 7 car, 33 yd · 2/2, 31 yd |
| Kendrick BourneWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.4 | +2.2 | 53% | 46% | 13% | 23% | 3/3, 44 yd |
| Austin HooperTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.8 | +2.1 | 61% | 68% | 13% | 13% | 3/3, 38 yd |
| Hunter HenryTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.5 | +0.8 | 80% | 82% | 17% | 6% | 4/4, 25 yd |
| Marvin HarrisonWR · Featured Receiver | 5.2 | −7.5 | 77% | 92% | 19% | 55% | 2/6, 32 yd |
| Kayshon BoutteWR · Featured Receiver | 3.9 | −5.9 | 88% | 96% | 22% | 57% | 2/5, 19 yd |
| Michael WilsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | 0.0 | 74% | 81% | 6% | 6% | 2/2, 9 yd |
| Tip ReimanTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | −1.8 | 43% | 31% | 10% | 4% | 2/3, 8 yd |
| Trey BensonRB | 2.2 | −0.4 | 16% | 14% | 0% | — | 5 car, 22 yd |
| DeeJay DallasRB | 1.5 | 0.0 | 17% | 14% | 0% | — | 4 car, 15 yd |
| Elijah HigginsTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | 0.0 | 34% | 19% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Zay JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | −0.2 | 30% | 33% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 3 yd |
| Clayton TuneQB | 0.2 | −0.3 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Ja'Lynn PolkWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.1 | 39% | 36% | 4% | 8% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Jamycal HastyRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jaheim BellTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(10:44) 13-J.Slye 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Q1 10:44 · Patriots · 4th & 6 at ARI 34 · gained nothing · -4.10 EP · −8.6% win probability
146 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 155 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 146 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 150. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 80 yards from the ARI 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
155 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
155 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Patriots0
Cardinals3Patriots0Cardinals9Patriots0Cardinals10Patriots3Cardinals10Patriots3Cardinals13Patriots3Cardinals16Patriots3Cardinals22Patriots3Cardinals23Patriots9Cardinals23Patriots10Cardinals23Patriots10Cardinals29Patriots10Cardinals30Patriots16Cardinals30Patriots17Cardinals30Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Patriots at Cardinals, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 19/23 | 202 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +3.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 13 | 69 | 5.3 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Antonio Gibson | 7 | 33 | 4.7 | 0 | −1.4 |
| Drake Maye |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendrick Bourne | 3 | 3 | 44 | 0 | 13% | +2.1 |
| Austin Hooper | 3 | 3 | 38 | 0 | 13% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Dugger | 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anfernee Jennings | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jahlani Tavai |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 23/30 | 224 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +11.5 |
| Clayton Tune | 2/2 | 8 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_15_NE_ARI
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Cardinals closed -6 and covered, winning by 13.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 47 — over by 0.5.
Conditions and crew
| 4 |
| 14 |
| 3.5 |
| 1 |
| −0.1 |
| +2.9 |
| Antonio Gibson | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 | 9% | +1.9 |
| Hunter Henry | 4 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 17% | +0.6 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 2 | 5 | 19 | 0 | 22% | −4.2 |
| Marcus Jones | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 4% | +1.7 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 4% | +1.4 |
| Demario Douglas | 3 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 13% | +0.8 |
| Ja'Lynn Polk | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| 5 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Marcus Jones | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jabrill Peppers | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sione Takitaki | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Elliss | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Jones | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daniel Ekuale | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Austin | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| −1.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 16 | 110 | 6.9 | 2 | +4.1 |
| Trey Benson | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 | −0.4 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Kyler Murray | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 | −3.7 |
| Greg Dortch | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | +1.5 |
| Clayton Tune | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | −1.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey McBride | 9 | 10 | 87 | 0 | 32% | +4.1 |
| Greg Dortch | 3 | 3 | 60 | 0 | 10% | +6.1 |
| Marvin Harrison | 2 | 6 | 32 | 0 | 19% | −1.5 |
| James Conner | 5 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 16% | +2.5 |
| Michael Wilson | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 6% | +0.4 |
| Tip Reiman | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 10% | −0.4 |
| Elijah Higgins | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | +0.0 |
| Zay Jones | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% | −0.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyzir White | 5 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Budda Baker | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Thompson | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Julian Okwara | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Krys Barnes | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darius Robinson | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dadrion Taylor-Demerson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Starling Thomas | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Max Melton | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sean Murphy-Bunting | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
