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2024 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 15, 2024 · State Farm Stadium

New England Patriots

17

Arizona CardinalsWinner

30

ARI -6 ✓O 46.5 ✓Dome

Arizona Cardinals 30–17. Biggest swing: Q1 10:02, ARI +6% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3ARINE
Q1 · 10:02NE 0ARI 0ARI ball · 2nd & 15ARI 74%

(10:02) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 18-M.Harrison to NE 39 for 23 yards (25-M.Jones).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 10:02ARI +6% win prob(10:02) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 18-M.Harrison to NE 39 for 23 yards (25-M.Jones).
  2. Q1 · 10:44NE +6% win prob(10:44) 13-J.Slye 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
  3. Q1 · 12:24NE +6% win prob(12:24) (Shotgun) 4-A.Gibson left tackle pushed ob at ARI 18 for 15 yards (23-S.Murphy-Bunting). PENALTY on NE-64-L.Robinson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 33 - No Play.
  4. Q1 · 4:58ARI +6% win prob(4:58) (Shotgun) 6-J.Conner left tackle pushed ob at NE 27 for 53 yards (53-C.Elliss).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 7:18ARI Field goal

    (7:18) 38-C.Ryland 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-10-M.Palardy.

    Score after this play: NE 0ARI 3
  2. Q1 · 1:31ARI Touchdown

    (1:31) 4-G.Dortch left end to NE 2 for 6 yards (33-A.Jennings; 5-J.Peppers). FUMBLES (33-A.Jennings), recovered by ARI-73-J.Williams at NE -9. TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NE 0ARI 10
  3. Q2 · 2:06NE Field goal

    (2:06) 13-J.Slye 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

    Score after this play: NE 3ARI 10
  4. Q2 · 0:20ARI Field goal

    (:20) 38-C.Ryland 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-10-M.Palardy.

    Score after this play: NE 3ARI 13
  5. Q3 · 9:12ARI Field goal

    (9:12) 38-C.Ryland 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-10-M.Palardy.

    Score after this play: NE 3ARI 16
  6. Q4 · 10:42ARI Touchdown

    (10:42) 59-J.Gaines reported in as eligible. 6-J.Conner up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NE 3ARI 23
  7. Q4 · 8:22NE Touchdown

    (8:22) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 3-D.Douglas for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NE 10ARI 23
  8. Q4 · 3:29ARI Touchdown

    (3:29) (Shotgun) 6-J.Conner up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NE 10ARI 30
  9. Q4 · 2:00NE Touchdown

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye scrambles right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NE 17ARI 30

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricPatriotsCardinals
Offensive plays4963
Total yards311396 (edge)
Yards per play6.3 (edge)6.3
Expected points added / play0.040.18 (edge)
Success rate55% (edge)43%
Dropback rate57%57%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.170.22 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.130.14 (edge)
Third downs0/610/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)8 (edge)6
First downs gained on snaps1718 (edge)
Sacks taken20 (edge)
Turnovers10 (edge)

Cardinals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs 0.04.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ARI

Kyler MurrayQB

23/30, 224 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

11.5 expected points added · +5.9% completion over expected

Passing · NE

Drake MayeQB

19/23, 202 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

3.4 expected points added · +12.0% completion over expected

Rushing · ARI

James ConnerRB

16 att, 110 yds, 2 TD

4.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NE

Rhamondre StevensonRB

13 att, 69 yds, 0 TD

0.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ARI

Trey McBrideTE

9/10 for 87 yds, 0 TD

32% of team targets · 4.1 expected points added

Receiving · ARI

Greg DortchWR

3/3 for 60 yds, 0 TD

10% of team targets · 6.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1NENE 308414:21Missed field goal
2ARIARI 436313:26Field goal +3
3NENE 305-52:15Punt
4ARIARI 207783:37Turnover on downs +7
5NENE 30532:04Punt
6ARIARI 199274:46Punt
7NENE 2012487:30Field goal +3
8ARIARI 3011681:45Field goal +3
9NENE 21220:16End of half
10ARIARI 3011445:53Field goal +3
11NENE 3010664:13Turnover on downs
12ARIARI 46113:07Punt
13NENE 334111:16Interception
14ARIARI 4510554:52Touchdown +7
15NENE 258752:25Touchdown +7
16ARIARI 3011704:47Touchdown +7
17NENE 308701:32Touchdown +7
18ARINE 395121:55End of game

9 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cardinals gained 78 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

New England Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Drake Maye19/232021123.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Rhamondre Stevenson13695.300.3
Antonio Gibson7334.70-1.4
Drake Maye4143.51-0.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Kendrick Bourne3344013%2.1
Austin Hooper3338013%2.9
Antonio Gibson223109%1.9
Hunter Henry4425017%0.6
Kayshon Boutte2519022%-4.2
Marcus Jones111804%1.7
Rhamondre Stevenson111604%1.4
Demario Douglas3311113%0.8
Ja'Lynn Polk01004%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Kyle Dugger640.000
Anfernee Jennings250.000
Jahlani Tavai520.000
Marcus Jones510.000
Jabrill Peppers230.000
Sione Takitaki130.000
Christian Elliss310.000
Jonathan Jones300.000
Daniel Ekuale120.000
Alex Austin200.000

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Kyler Murray23/3022400011.5
Clayton Tune2/28000-1.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
James Conner161106.924.1
Trey Benson5224.40-0.4
DeeJay Dallas4153.80-0.4
Kyler Murray5112.20-3.7
Greg Dortch166.001.5
Clayton Tune1-1-1.00-1.9

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Trey McBride91087032%4.1
Greg Dortch3360010%6.1
Marvin Harrison2632019%-1.5
James Conner5528016%2.5
Michael Wilson22906%0.4
Tip Reiman238010%-0.4
Elijah Higgins11503%0.0
Zay Jones11303%-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
ARI -6
Closing total
46.5
NE moneyline
+210
ARI moneyline
-258

Cardinals closed -6 and covered, winning by 13.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 47 — over by 0.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · grass
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Ron Torbert
Rest
NE 14 days · ARI 7 days
Coaches
Jerod Mayo vs Jonathan Gannon