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2024 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 15, 2024 · State Farm Stadium
Final
PatriotsNew England17
BY 13final margin
CardinalsArizona30
New England Patriots 17 at Arizona Cardinals 30. Final.
Cardinals -6 ✓O 46.5 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 15
Arizona Cardinals 30, Patriots 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 10:02, 2nd and 15, on Marvin Harrison — 6.1 win-probability points to the Cardinals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 10:02 · 2nd and 15
Marvin Harrison
Cardinals
(10:02) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 18-M.Harrison to NE 39 for 23 yards (25-M.Jones).
Dome
Cardinals closed -6 and covered, winning by 13.
Arizona Cardinals 30–17. Biggest swing: Q1 10:02, Cardinals +6.1% win probability on one snap.
6.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Antonio GibsonCardinalsQ1 12:24(12:24) (Shotgun) 4-A.Gibson left tackle pushed ob at ARI 18 for 15 yards (23-S.Murphy-Bunting). PENALTY on NE-64-L.Robinson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 33 - No Play.
6.0pts
Joey SlyeCardinalsQ1 10:44(10:44) 13-J.Slye 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
6.1pts
What separated them
Third down
Cardinals won this one — 10 of 15 on third down, against Patriots at 0 of 6 on third down.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — 55% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cardinals at 43% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Cardinals won this one — +0.14 expected points per carry, against Patriots at -0.13 expected points per carry.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Cardinals won this one — no giveaways, against Patriots at 1 giveaway.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cardinalshigher on Patriots148 of 155 plays carry both curves
(10:02) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 18-M.Harrison to NE 39 for 23 yards (25-M.Jones).
Swing +6.1 for CardinalsExpected points +2.26 for CardinalsThe model had Patriots 12 points higher than the market did.play 13
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 10:02ARI +6% win prob(10:02) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 18-M.Harrison to NE 39 for 23 yards (25-M.Jones).
1st · 10:44NE +6% win prob(10:44) 13-J.Slye 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
1st · 12:24NE +6% win prob(12:24) (Shotgun) 4-A.Gibson left tackle pushed ob at ARI 18 for 15 yards (23-S.Murphy-Bunting). PENALTY on NE-64-L.Robinson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 33 - No Play.
1st · 4:58ARI +6% win prob(4:58) (Shotgun) 6-J.Conner left tackle pushed ob at NE 27 for 53 yards (53-C.Elliss).
1st · 13:49ARI +6% win prob(13:49) (Shotgun) 77-B.Brown to NE 41 for -5 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by NE-10-D.Maye at NE 41. 10-D.Maye pass short right to 38-R.Stevenson to ARI 38 for 16 yards (3-B.Baker).
2nd · 0:46ARI +5% win prob(:46) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 4-G.Dortch pushed ob at NE 21 for 39 yards (25-M.Jones).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Chad Ryland's 49-yard field goal with 7:18 left in the 1st put Arizona Cardinals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:18Chad Ryland·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder M.Palardy · snap A.BrewerLead never changed again+30–3
Cardinals ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.04Patriots: +0.04 expected points added per play
+0.18Cardinals: +0.18 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.17Patriots: +0.17 expected points added per play
+0.22Cardinals: +0.22 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.13Patriots: −0.13 expected points added per play
+0.14Cardinals: +0.14 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 49 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 63 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 3, Cardinals 4.
NoteCardinals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs 0.04.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
NE's sack or hit rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 2.7 points clear of the next team along.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 16 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.2 vs their 10.2%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−1.42× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Cardinals7.1%
inside their normal wobble · −4.9 vs their 12.0%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−0.74× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
NoteNE's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 10.2 points below their season mean of 10.2% and 1.4 times their own 7.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
64Layden RobinsonG · Every snap100%51 snaps
75Demontrey JacobsT · Every snap100%51 snaps
71Mike OnwenuG · Every snap100%51 snaps
77Ben BrownG · Every snap100%51 snaps
10Drake MayeQB · Every snap100%51 snaps
59Vederian LoweT · Every snap100%51 snaps
9Kayshon BoutteWR · Full-time88%45 snaps
85Hunter HenryTE · Full-time80%41 snaps
38Rhamondre StevensonRB · Heavy rotation65%33 snaps
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Patriots←Cardinals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Joey Slye−9% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(10:44) 13-J.Slye 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Q1 10:44 · Patriots · 4th & 6 at ARI 34 · gained nothing · -4.10 EP · −8.6% win probability
146 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 155 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 146 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 150. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 80 yards from the ARI 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
155 of 155 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
155
EPA per play
+0.10
Success rate
52%
Yards
706
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR26+0.1685%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR24+0.4846%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20-0.1960%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+0.3119%
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR8+0.2250%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7-0.1429%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Cardinals2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Cardinals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Patriots1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
155 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
155 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
No good10 plays, from the Patriots 30 to the Cardinals 33
Patriots0Cardinals3
Field goal6 plays, from the Cardinals 43 to the Patriots 31
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 30 to the Patriots 32
Patriots0Cardinals9
Patriots0Cardinals10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Cardinals 20 to the Patriots 8
The period ended4 plays, from the Patriots 30 to the Patriots 34
2nd quarter40 plays
Punt2 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Cardinals 19 to the Cardinals 46
Patriots3Cardinals10
Field goal12 plays, from the Patriots 20 to the Cardinals 32
Patriots3Cardinals13
Field goal14 plays, from the Cardinals 30 to the Patriots 17
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Patriots3Cardinals16
Field goal13 plays, from the Cardinals 30 to the Patriots 21
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Patriots 30 to the Cardinals 4
Punt7 plays, from the Cardinals 4 to the Cardinals 30
Intercepted4 plays, from the Patriots 33 to the Patriots 44
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter44 plays
Patriots3Cardinals22
Patriots3Cardinals23
Touchdown9 plays, from the Cardinals 44 to the Patriots 1
Patriots9Cardinals23
Patriots10Cardinals23
Touchdown8 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Cardinals 3
Patriots10Cardinals29
Patriots10Cardinals30
Touchdown12 plays, from the Cardinals 30 to the Patriots 1
Patriots16Cardinals30
Patriots17Cardinals30
Touchdown8 plays, from the Patriots 30 to the Cardinals 5
The period ended7 plays, from the Patriots 39 to the Patriots 27
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Cardinals -6
Closing total
46.5
Patriots moneyline
+210
Cardinals moneyline
-258
Cardinals closed -6 and covered, winning by 13.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 47 — over by 0.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · grass
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Ron Torbert
Rest
Patriots 14 days · Cardinals 7 days
Coaches
Jerod Mayo vs Jonathan Gannon
2nd · 2:06ARI +5% win prob(2:06) 13-J.Slye 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
1st · 11:55ARI +5% win prob(11:55) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 84-K.Bourne to ARI 38 for 5 yards (34-J.Thompson). PENALTY on ARI-53-B.Browning, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 43 - No Play.
