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2024 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 15, 2024 · TIAA Bank Stadium

New York JetsWinner

32

Jacksonville Jaguars

25

NYJ -3.5 ✓O 41.5 ✓

New York Jets 32–25. Biggest swing: Q4 3:34, JAX +44% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3JAX ↑NYJ ↓
Q4 · 3:34NYJ 23 — JAX 22NYJ ball · 2nd & 10JAX 76%

(3:34) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 17-D.Adams for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 3:34JAX +44% win prob(3:34) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 17-D.Adams for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q4 · 1:22JAX +20% win prob(1:22) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-D.Adams to JAX 1 for 41 yards (6-D.Savage) [52-D.Hamilton].
  3. Q4 · 11:04JAX +19% win prob(11:04) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 7-B.Thomas for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q3 · 5:53JAX +16% win prob(5:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 17-D.Adams to JAX 8 for 43 yards (3-T.Campbell).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 8:43JAX Touchdown

    (8:43) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 7-B.Thomas for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NYJ 0 — JAX 7
  2. Q1 · 5:06NYJ Touchdown

    (5:06) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 5-G.Wilson for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NYJ 7 — JAX 7
  3. Q2 · 2:44JAX Field goal

    (2:44) 39-C.Little 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: NYJ 7 — JAX 10
  4. Q2 · 0:01JAX Field goal

    (:01) 39-C.Little 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: NYJ 7 — JAX 13
  5. Q3 · 10:32NYJ Field goal

    (10:32) 18-A.Carlson 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

    Score after this play: NYJ 10 — JAX 13
  6. Q3 · 8:09JAX Field goal

    (8:09) 39-C.Little 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: NYJ 10 — JAX 16
  7. Q3 · 4:38NYJ Touchdown

    (4:38) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 17-D.Adams for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: NYJ-0-B.Allen has returned to the game. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NYJ 17 — JAX 16
  8. Q4 · 11:04JAX Touchdown

    (11:04) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 7-B.Thomas for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: NYJ 17 — JAX 22
  9. Q4 · 3:34NYJ Touchdown

    (3:34) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 17-D.Adams for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: NYJ 25 — JAX 22
  10. Q4 · 1:56JAX Field goal

    (1:56) 39-C.Little 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: NYJ 25 — JAX 25
  11. Q4 · 1:08NYJ Touchdown

    (1:08) 20-B.Hall up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NYJ 32 — JAX 25

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricJetsJaguars
Offensive plays5478
Total yards402421 (edge)
Yards per play7.4 (edge)5.4
Expected points added / play0.40 (edge)0.12
Success rate41%54% (edge)
Dropback rate69%67%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.51 (edge)0.14
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.15 (edge)0.07
Third downs4/108/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)10 (edge)6
First downs gained on snaps1924 (edge)
Sacks taken1 (edge)2
Turnovers0 (edge)2

Jaguars outgained Jets 421–402 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · JAX

Mac JonesQB

31/46, 294 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

4.6 expected points added · +1.8% completion over expected

Passing · NYJ

Aaron RodgersQB

16/30, 289 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

13.8 expected points added · -3.1% completion over expected

Rushing · JAX

Travis EtienneRB

14 att, 65 yds, 0 TD

0.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYJ

Aaron RodgersQB

6 att, 45 yds, 0 TD

5.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NYJ

Davante AdamsWR

9/12 for 198 yds, 2 TD

43% of team targets · 16.6 expected points added

Receiving · JAX

Brian ThomasWR

10/14 for 105 yds, 2 TD

33% of team targets · 5.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1JAXJAX 3015576:23Touchdown +7
2NYJNYJ 309703:36Touchdown +7
3JAXJAX 345102:02Interception
4NYJNYJ 128324:11Punt
5JAXJAX 13188211:07Field goal +3
6NYJNYJ 20521:05Punt
7JAXJAX 2211541:36Field goal +3
8NYJNYJ 308154:32Field goal +3
9JAXJAX 308552:23Field goal +3
10NYJNYJ 309663:32Touchdown +7
11JAXJAX 20591:32Punt
12NYJNYJ 146183:11Punt
13JAXJAX 279733:52Touchdown +6
14NYJNYJ 309403:11Missed field goal
15JAXJAX 386163:28Punt
16NYJNYJ 135890:55Touchdown +8
17JAXJAX 338421:33Field goal +3
18NYJNYJ 309700:46Touchdown +7
19JAXJAX 306230:28Interception
20NYJNYJ 13100:37End of game

11 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jets gained 89 scrimmage yards over 5 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New York Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Aaron Rodgers16/3028930113.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Aaron Rodgers6457.505.2
Breece Hall9303.31-0.4
Isaiah Davis5244.80-0.3
Ashtyn Davis12121.003.9
Braelon Allen252.50-0.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Davante Adams912198243%16.6
Garrett Wilson3656121%3.1
Breece Hall222107%0.1
Jeremy Ruckert1312011%0.3
Isaiah Davis11204%-0.4
Allen Lazard040014%-3.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jamien Sherwood530.000
Chuck Clark610.000
Isaiah Oliver430.000
Tony Adams330.000
Kendall Sheffield410.000
Ahmad Gardner230.012
Qwan'tez Stiggers410.000
Quincy Williams310.001
Chazz Surratt310.000
Jalen Mills130.011

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Mac Jones31/462942224.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Travis Etienne14654.600.5
Tank Bigsby11423.800.4
Mac Jones4297.303.8

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Brian Thomas1014105233%5.5
Brenton Strange111273028%2.6
Parker Washington3654014%1.5
Devin Duvernay344209%1.6
Travis Etienne4520012%-0.4
Tank Bigsby01002%-0.5
Josh Reynolds01002%-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Tyson Campbell600.001
Foyesade Oluokun320.000
Darnell Savage320.002
Antonio Johnson220.000
Davon Hamilton300.000
DJ Coleman120.000
Josh Hines-Allen110.000
Andre Cisco200.001
Travon Walker110.000
Jarrian Jones200.002

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
NYJ -3.5
Closing total
41.5
NYJ moneyline
-175
JAX moneyline
+145

Jets closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 7.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 57 — over by 15.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
—
Referee
Brad Rogers
Rest
NYJ 7 days · JAX 7 days
Coaches
Robert Saleh vs Doug Pederson