For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 13.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jaguarshigher on Jets173 of 183 plays carry both curves
(3:34) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 17-D.Adams for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −43.5 for JaguarsExpected points −6.35 for JaguarsThe model had Jaguars 5 points higher than the market did.play 153
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 3:34JAX +44% win prob(3:34) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 17-D.Adams for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:22JAX +20% win prob(1:22) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-D.Adams to JAX 1 for 41 yards (6-D.Savage) [52-D.Hamilton].
4th · 11:04JAX +19% win prob(11:04) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 7-B.Thomas for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 5:53JAX +16% win prob(5:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 17-D.Adams to JAX 8 for 43 yards (3-T.Campbell).
4th · 2:45JAX +16% win prob(2:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 11-P.Washington pushed ob at NYJ 30 for 29 yards (36-C.Clark). NYJ-99-W.McDonald was injured during the play.
4th · 7:52NYJ +14% win prob(7:52) 18-A.Carlson 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Breece Hall's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 1:08 left in the 4th put New York Jets ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st8:43Brian Thomas·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Mac Jonesfrom Mac Jones+70–7
4th1:56Cam Little·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.Matiscik+325–25
4th1:08Breece Hall·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+732–25
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Jetscategory by categoryJaguars
Jets4–4Jaguars
402Total yards421
7.4Yards per play5.4
41%Success rate54%
40%Third-down rate53%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
10Explosive plays6
19First downs24
1Sacks taken2
0Turnovers2
The read
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Jets, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.51 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.40Jets: +0.40 expected points added per play
+0.12Jaguars: +0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.51Jets: +0.51 expected points added per play
+0.14Jaguars: +0.14 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.15Jets: +0.15 expected points added per play
+0.07Jaguars: +0.07 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 54 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 78 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Jets 5, Jaguars 4.
NoteJaguars outgained Jets 421-402 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
JAX's blitz rate sent, 2.7%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 8.1 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.0-swing turn from week 14.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.4 points.
low through week 15Against their seasonFourth Down
JAX's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 20.0% in week 8 — the lowest of their 11 charted games through week 15.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 26.7 points.
JAX's play-action rate, 11.5%, is past their previous low of 14.7% in week 8 — the lowest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
52 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 16 pts
inside their normal wobble · −7.9 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.91× that swing) · 52 dropbacks
Jaguars8.1%
right on their number · −1.9 vs their 10.0%, and they swing ±4.0 week to week (−0.48× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
NoteJAX's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 2.7%, 12.3 points below their season mean of 15.0% and 1.7 times their own 7.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jets←Jaguars→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Rodgers pass+36% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(3:34) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 17-D.Adams for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 3:34 · Jets · 2nd & 10 at NYJ 29 · gained 71 · +6.35 EP · +36.3% win probability
171 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 183 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 171 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 178. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYJ moving 87 yards from the NYJ 13 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
183 of 183 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
183
EPA per play
+0.20
Success rate
50%
Yards
823
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR58+0.1972%
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42+0.2267%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.2438%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.0429%
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Jaguars0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
183 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
183 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Jets0Jaguars6
Jets0Jaguars7
Touchdown16 plays, from the Jaguars 30 to the Jets 3
Jets6Jaguars7
Jets7Jaguars7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Jets 30 to the Jaguars 22
Intercepted6 plays, from the Jaguars 34 to midfield
The period ended9 plays, from the Jets 12 to the Jaguars 45
2nd quarter44 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Jets 47 to the Jaguars 39
Jets7Jaguars10
Field goal20 plays, from the Jaguars 13 to the Jets 5
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 20 to the Jets 22
Jets7Jaguars13
Field goal15 plays, from the Jaguars 22 to the Jets 5
3rd quarter39 plays
Jets10Jaguars13
Field goal9 plays, from the Jets 30 to the Jaguars 11
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Jets10Jaguars16
Field goal9 plays, from the Jaguars 30 to the Jets 25
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Jets16Jaguars16
Jets17Jaguars16
Touchdown10 plays, from the Jets 30 to the Jaguars 1
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 20 to the Jaguars 29
The period ended6 plays, from the Jets 14 to the Jets 32
4th quarter59 plays
Punt1 play
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Jets17Jaguars22
Touchdown9 plays, from the Jaguars 27 to the Jets 19
No good9 plays, from the Jets 30 to the Jaguars 30
Punt6 plays, from the Jaguars 38 to the Jets 46
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Jets23Jaguars22
Jets25Jaguars22
Touchdown5 plays, from the Jets 13 to the Jets 29
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Jets25Jaguars25
Field goal8 plays, from the Jaguars 33 to the Jets 25
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.8 seconds
Jets31Jaguars25
Jets32Jaguars25
Touchdown12 plays, from the Jets 30 to the Jaguars 1
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Jaguars 30 to the Jets 47
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
