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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:41 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 15, 2024 · Lincoln Financial Field
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 15
It turned at Q1 4:25, 4th and 21 — 14.9 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 4:25 · 4th and 21
Unnamed on the sheet
Steelers
(4:25) 8-C.Waitman punts 49 yards to PHI 7, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 33-C.DeJean to PHI 17 for 10 yards (93-M.Robinson). FUMBLES (93-M.Robinson), RECOVERED by PIT-51-Ni.Herbig at PHI 11.
Philadelphia Eagles 27–13. Biggest swing: Q1 4:25, Steelers +14.9% win probability on one snap.
14.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Eagles won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Steelers at 1 chunk play.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Eagles won this one — +0.20 expected points per snap, against Steelers at -0.28 expected points per snap.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Eagles won this one — 10 of 16 on third down, against Steelers at 3 of 10 on third down.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Eagles won this one — +0.44 expected points per dropback, against Steelers at -0.18 expected points per dropback.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 5.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 15 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
(4:25) 8-C.Waitman punts 49 yards to PHI 7, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 33-C.DeJean to PHI 17 for 10 yards (93-M.Robinson). FUMBLES (93-M.Robinson), RECOVERED by PIT-51-Ni.Herbig at PHI 11.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
A.J. Brown's 5-yard touchdown catch with 1:18 left in the 1st put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Steelerscategory by categoryEagles
Eagles ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.45 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 41 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Eagles’s 74 at 51%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 2, Eagles 6.
Eagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.20 expected points added per play vs -0.28.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 11 pts
Over Expected room →Steelers-4.3 ptsright on their number · +1.9 vs their -6.3 pts, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.29× that swing) · 41 snaps
Eagles-1.7 ptsinside their normal wobble · +7.3 vs their -9.0 pts, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+0.94× that swing) · 74 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 12% to 75%
Tendencies room →Steelers54.8%inside their normal wobble · +6.7 vs their 48.2%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (+0.82× that swing) · 31 early downs
Eagles43.9%right on their number · +0.0 vs their 43.8%, and they swing ±12.4 week to week (+0.00× that swing) · 57 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 58%
Tendencies room →Steelers11.5%leaned — dropped back clean · −15.4 vs their 26.9%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (−1.25× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Eagles7.9%leaned — dropped back clean · −16.0 vs their 23.9%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (−1.82× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25% to 110%
Fourth Down room →Steelers—Only 0 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 31.3%.
Eagles—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 46.1%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 61%
Tendencies room →Steelers28.9%right on their number · −0.6 vs their 29.6%, and they swing ±12.5 week to week (−0.05× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Eagles15.4%inside their normal wobble · −8.4 vs their 23.8%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−0.86× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 36%
Tendencies room →Steelers13.2%right on their number · −3.4 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.45× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Eagles15.4%right on their number · +2.0 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (+0.25× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
PHI's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 7.9%, 16.0 points below their season mean of 23.9% and 1.8 times their own 8.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · PHI
25/32, 290 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
21.3 expected points added · +13.6% completion over expected
Passing · PIT
14/22, 128 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-5.9 expected points added · -1.1% completion over expected
Receiving · PHI
11/12 for 109 yds, 1 TD
39% of team targets · 8.6 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
DeVonta Smith banked 6.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen HurtsQB · Starter QB | 28.1 | −9.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 25/32, 290 yd, 2 TD · 15 car, 45 yd, 1 TD |
| DeVonta SmithWR · Alpha Receiver | 28.0 | +6.5 | 93% | 92% | 39% | 31% | 1 car, 1 yd · 11/12, 109 yd, 1 TD |
| A.J. BrownWR · Alpha Receiver | 25.0 | +3.8 | 91% | 92% | 35% | 43% | 8/11, 110 yd, 1 TD |
| Calvin AustinWR · Featured Receiver | 11.5 | +3.5 | 81% | 88% | 24% | 33% | 5/5, 65 yd |
| Pat FreiermuthTE · Alpha Receiver | 11.2 | +0.9 | 70% | 77% | 29% | 32% | 3/6, 22 yd, 1 TD |
| Saquon BarkleyRB · Committee Back | 9.4 | −6.0 | 61% | 58% | 6% | 2% | 19 car, 65 yd · 2/2, 9 yd |
| Kenneth GainwellRB | 9.0 | +0.6 | 39% | 34% | 10% | 0% | 7 car, 20 yd · 3/3, 40 yd |
| Russell WilsonQB · Starter QB | 8.4 | −2.6 | 98% | — | 0% | — | 14/22, 128 yd, 1 TD · 4 car, 13 yd |
| Grant CalcaterraTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.2 | +1.4 | 93% | 89% | 3% | 10% | 1/1, 22 yd |
| Najee HarrisRB | 3.1 | −1.8 | 33% | 19% | 5% | 0% | 6 car, 14 yd · 1/1, 7 yd |
| Ben SkowronekWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.7 | +1.4 | 23% | 27% | 5% | 2% | 1/1, 17 yd |
| Jaylen WarrenRB | 2.5 | −1.6 | 53% | 58% | 10% | 0% | 4 car, 12 yd · 1/2, 3 yd |
| Mike WilliamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.5 | −0.6 | 35% | 50% | 10% | 10% | 1/2, 15 yd |
| Cordarrelle PattersonRB | 1.8 | −0.5 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Van JeffersonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.0 | −2.8 | 81% | 77% | 10% | 28% | 1/2, 0 yd |
| Justin FieldsQB | 0.8 | +0.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Johnny WilsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.3 | 29% | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Jahan DotsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.6 | 45% | 53% | 3% | 11% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Scott MillerWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.4 | 23% | 15% | 5% | 1% | 0/1, 0 yd |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(4:25) 8-C.Waitman punts 49 yards to PHI 7, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 33-C.DeJean to PHI 17 for 10 yards (93-M.Robinson). FUMBLES (93-M.Robinson), RECOVERED by PIT-51-Ni.Herbig at PHI 11.
Q1 4:25 · Steelers · 4th & 21 at PIT 44 · gained nothing · +5.74 EP · +21.4% win probability
150 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 164 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 150 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 159. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 89 yards from the PHI 2 for a end of half. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
164 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
164 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Steelers0
Eagles3How the play was built
Empty backfield, no huddle, nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
Steelers3Eagles3Steelers3Eagles9Steelers3Eagles10Steelers3Eagles16Steelers3Eagles17Steelers9Eagles17Steelers10Eagles17Steelers13Eagles17Steelers13Eagles20How the play was built
No huddle, a man in motion.
Steelers13Eagles26Steelers13Eagles27Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Steelers at Eagles, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 14/22 | 128 | 1 | 0 | 2 | −5.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 | −1.8 |
| Russell Wilson | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 | −3.9 |
| Jaylen Warren | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Austin | 5 | 5 | 65 | 0 | 24% | +3.4 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 3 | 6 | 22 | 1 | 29% | +2.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Queen | 6 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damontae Kazee | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Minkah Fitzpatrick | 2 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| T.J. Watt |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 25/32 | 290 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +21.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_15_PIT_PHI
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Eagles closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 14.
Total closed 43; the game landed 40 — under by 3.0.
Conditions and crew
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Justin Fields | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | +1.4 |
| Ben Skowronek | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 5% | +1.1 |
| Mike Williams | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 10% | −1.2 |
| Najee Harris | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 5% | −1.6 |
| Jaylen Warren | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 10% | −1.9 |
| Scott Miller | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.5 |
| Van Jefferson | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10% | −2.2 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 5% | −0.9 |
| 5 |
| 2 |
| 2.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Alex Highsmith | 5 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Payton Wilson | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cameron Heyward | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| James Pierre | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joey Porter | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Elandon Roberts | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 |
| 65 |
| 3.4 |
| 0 |
| −2.7 |
| Jalen Hurts | 15 | 45 | 3.0 | 1 | −6.6 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 7 | 20 | 2.9 | 0 | −1.1 |
| DeVonta Smith | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 8 | 11 | 110 | 1 | 35% | +8.6 |
| DeVonta Smith | 11 | 12 | 109 | 1 | 39% | +8.6 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 3 | 3 | 40 | 0 | 10% | +6.5 |
| Grant Calcaterra | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 | 3% | +1.3 |
| Saquon Barkley | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 6% | +0.4 |
| Jahan Dotson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.9 |
| Johnny Wilson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nakobe Dean | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zack Baun | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reed Blankenship | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nolan Smith | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jalen Carter | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Chauncey Gardner-Johnson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Milton Williams | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jalyx Hunt | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Sweat | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Oren Burks | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
