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Tampa Bay Buccaneers 40 at Los Angeles Chargers 17. Final.
Chargers -3 upset
The verdict · 2024 Week 15
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 40, Chargers 17 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q3 10:35, 2nd and 13, on Mike Evans — 22.8 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 10:35 · 2nd and 13
Mike Evans
Buccaneers
(10:35) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
O 46 ✓
Dome
Chargers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 40–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 10:35, Buccaneers +22.8% win probability on one snap.
22.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Tarheeb StillChargersQ2 8:47(8:47) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 29-T.Still at TB 45. 29-T.Still ran ob at TB 27 for 18 yards (88-C.Otton). ** Injury Update: TB-1-R.White has returned to the game.
12.5pts
Mike EvansBuccaneersQ3 1:42(1:42) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 13-M.Evans for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11.6pts
What separated them
Third down
Buccaneers won this one — 10 of 15 on third down, against Chargers at 0 of 6 on third down.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Buccaneers won this one — +0.62 expected points per dropback, against Chargers at -0.41 expected points per dropback.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Buccaneers won this one — +0.22 expected points per snap, against Chargers at -0.37 expected points per snap.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Buccaneers won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Chargers at 2 chunk plays.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chargershigher on Buccaneers155 of 164 plays carry both curves
(10:35) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −22.8 for ChargersExpected points −5.68 for ChargersModel and market agree here.play 95
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 10:35LAC +23% win prob(10:35) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 8:47TB +13% win prob(8:47) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 29-T.Still at TB 45. 29-T.Still ran ob at TB 27 for 18 yards (88-C.Otton). ** Injury Update: TB-1-R.White has returned to the game.
3rd · 1:42LAC +12% win prob(1:42) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 13-M.Evans for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 7:53LAC +11% win prob(7:53) 7-B.Irving right guard pushed ob at LAC 16 for 54 yards (29-T.Still).
1st · 11:20LAC +10% win prob(11:20) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 15-J.McMillan for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 11:25LAC +9% win prob(11:25) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 84-S.Smartt to TB 14 for 31 yards (26-K.Merriweather).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Mike Evans's 57-yard touchdown catch with 10:35 left in the 3rd put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
4th2:55Chase McLaughlin·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder J.Browning · snap E.Deckers+340–17
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Buccaneerscategory by categoryChargers
Buccaneers7–1Chargers
506Total yards206
7.6Yards per play4.3
52%Success rate38%
67%Third-down rate0%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
9Explosive plays2
22First downs11
1Sacks taken3
2Turnovers2
The read
Buccaneers ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.62 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.22Buccaneers: +0.22 expected points added per play
−0.37Chargers: −0.37 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.62Buccaneers: +0.62 expected points added per play
−0.41Chargers: −0.41 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.10Buccaneers: −0.10 expected points added per play
−0.25Chargers: −0.25 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 67 snaps at a 45% dropback rate against Chargers’s 48 at 77%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 7, Chargers 3.
NoteBuccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs -0.37.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
LAC's pass rate over expected, +11.8 pts, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 1.0 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of +4.5 pts in week 8.
A 2.0-swing turn from week 14.
48 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.7 points.
LAC's sack or hit rate turned over: 28.6% in week 14 against 6.7% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 3.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 16 pts
leaned — got home · +8.8 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+1.46× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Chargers6.7%
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.4 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−1.05× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
NoteLAC's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 11.8 pts, 13.4 points above their season mean of -1.6 pts and 2.0 times their own 6.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 7 inactive
67Luke GoedekeG · Every snap100%72 snaps
62Graham BartonC · Every snap100%72 snaps
68Ben BredesonG · Full-time96%69 snaps
69Cody MauchG · Full-time96%69 snaps
78Tristan WirfsT · Full-time96%69 snaps
6Baker MayfieldQB · Full-time94%68 snaps
88Cade OttonTE · Full-time92%66 snaps
13Mike EvansWR · Heavy rotation65%47 snaps
15Jalen McMillanWR · Heavy rotation64%46 snaps
1Rachaad WhiteRB · Heavy rotation51%37 snaps
17Sterling ShepardWR · Heavy rotation50%36 snaps
7Bucky IrvingRB · Rotational44%32 snaps
87Payne DurhamTE · Rotational42%30 snaps
41Ko KieftTE · Rotational26%19 snaps
10Trey PalmerWR · Situational24%17 snaps
81Ryan MillerWR · Situational21%15 snaps
44Sean TuckerRB · Situational11%8 snaps
18Rakim JarrettWR · Situational10%7 snaps
2Kyle TraskQB · Situational6%4 snaps
70Robert HainseyC · Situational4%3 snaps
79Elijah KleinG · Situational4%3 snaps
77Justin SkuleT · Situational4%3 snaps
Inactive · 7
Earnest Brown IVDEMike EdwardsFSAntoine Winfield Jr.FSRoyce NewmanGK.J. BrittILBJose RamirezOLBDevin CulpTE
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Buccaneers←Chargers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Mayfield pass+22% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(10:35) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 10:35 · Buccaneers · 2nd & 13 at TB 43 · gained 57 · +5.68 EP · +22.0% win probability
154 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 164 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 153 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 158. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 83 yards from the TB 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
164 of 164 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
164
EPA per play
+0.01
Success rate
50%
Yards
712
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34+0.7659%
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34-0.4885%
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR15+0.017%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.5046%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.2567%
Buccaneers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.9120%
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Chargers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Chargers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Chargers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
164 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
164 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Buccaneers6Chargers0
Buccaneers7Chargers0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Buccaneers 30 to the Chargers 26
Buccaneers7Chargers6
Buccaneers7Chargers7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Chargers 30 to the Buccaneers 7
The period ended13 plays, from the Buccaneers 30 to the Chargers 6
2nd quarter48 plays
Buccaneers10Chargers7
Field goal3 plays, from the Chargers 7 to the Chargers 3
Buccaneers10Chargers10
Field goal10 plays, from the Chargers 26 to the Buccaneers 14
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
Buccaneers10Chargers16
Buccaneers10Chargers17
Touchdown4 plays, from the Buccaneers 27 to the Buccaneers 13
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Buccaneers 35 to the Buccaneers 44
Punt7 plays, from the Chargers 49 to the Buccaneers 42
Buccaneers13Chargers17
Field goal14 plays, from the Buccaneers 20 to the Chargers 19
The period ended4 plays, from the Chargers 26 to the Chargers 31
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 30 to the Chargers 36
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw5.9 seconds
Buccaneers19Chargers17
Buccaneers20Chargers17
Touchdown6 plays, from the Buccaneers 17 to the Buccaneers 46
Punt7 plays, from the Chargers 29 to the Chargers 43
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and four backsIn the boxSix defenders
Buccaneers23Chargers17
Field goal5 plays, from the Buccaneers 30 to the Chargers 15
Intercepted3 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Buccaneers29Chargers17
Buccaneers30Chargers17
Touchdown8 plays, from the Chargers 42 to the Chargers 25
The period ended5 plays, from the Chargers 33 to the Chargers 45
4th quarter40 plays
Turnover on downs5 plays, from midfield to the Buccaneers 34
Buccaneers36Chargers17
Buccaneers37Chargers17
Touchdown10 plays, from the Buccaneers 34 to the Chargers 11
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Chargers 30 to the Buccaneers 49
Buccaneers40Chargers17
Field goal12 plays, from the Buccaneers 45 to the Chargers 25
Fumble lost2 plays
The period ended5 plays, from the Chargers 37 to the Chargers 30
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chargers -3
Closing total
46
Buccaneers moneyline
+136
Chargers moneyline
-162
Chargers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 46; the game landed 57 — over by 11.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
Buccaneers 7 days · Chargers 7 days
Coaches
Todd Bowles vs Jim Harbaugh
3rd · 4:40
TB +9% win prob
(4:40) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left intended for 1-Q.Johnston INTERCEPTED by 35-J.Dean [54-L.David] at LAC 42. 35-J.Dean to LAC 42 for no gain (1-Q.Johnston).
1st · 1:50LAC +9% win prob(1:50) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 15-J.McMillan to LAC 16 for 21 yards (7-K.Fulton).
