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2024 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 15, 2024 · SoFi Stadium

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

40

Los Angeles Chargers

17

LAC -3 upsetO 46 ✓Dome

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 40–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 10:35, LAC +23% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3LAC ↑TB ↓
Q3 · 10:35TB 19 — LAC 17TB ball · 2nd & 13LAC 68%

(10:35) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q3 · 10:35LAC +23% win prob(10:35) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q2 · 8:47TB +13% win prob(8:47) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 29-T.Still at TB 45. 29-T.Still ran ob at TB 27 for 18 yards (88-C.Otton). ** Injury Update: TB-1-R.White has returned to the game.
  3. Q3 · 1:42LAC +12% win prob(1:42) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 13-M.Evans for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q3 · 7:53LAC +11% win prob(7:53) 7-B.Irving right guard pushed ob at LAC 16 for 54 yards (29-T.Still).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 11:20TB Touchdown

    (11:20) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 15-J.McMillan for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 7 — LAC 0
  2. Q1 · 6:25LAC Touchdown

    (6:25) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 15-L.McConkey for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 7 — LAC 7
  3. Q2 · 13:44TB Field goal

    (13:44) 4-C.McLaughlin 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning.

    Score after this play: TB 10 — LAC 7
  4. Q2 · 8:51LAC Field goal

    (8:51) 11-C.Dicker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: TB 10 — LAC 10
  5. Q2 · 7:18LAC Touchdown

    (7:18) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 1-Q.Johnston for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 10 — LAC 17
  6. Q2 · 0:37TB Field goal

    (:37) 4-C.McLaughlin 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning.

    Score after this play: TB 13 — LAC 17
  7. Q3 · 10:35TB Touchdown

    (10:35) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 20 — LAC 17
  8. Q3 · 5:10TB Field goal

    (5:10) 4-C.McLaughlin 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning.

    Score after this play: TB 23 — LAC 17
  9. Q3 · 1:42TB Touchdown

    (1:42) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 13-M.Evans for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 30 — LAC 17
  10. Q4 · 7:43TB Touchdown

    (7:43) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 1-R.White for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 37 — LAC 17
  11. Q4 · 2:55TB Field goal

    (2:55) 4-C.McLaughlin 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning.

    Score after this play: TB 40 — LAC 17

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBuccaneersChargers
Offensive plays6748
Total yards506 (edge)206
Yards per play7.6 (edge)4.3
Expected points added / play0.22 (edge)-0.37
Success rate52% (edge)38%
Dropback rate45%77%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.62 (edge)-0.41
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.10 (edge)-0.25
Third downs10/15 (edge)0/6
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)9 (edge)2
First downs gained on snaps22 (edge)11
Sacks taken1 (edge)3
Turnovers22

Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs -0.37.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Baker MayfieldQB

22/27, 288 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT

17.9 expected points added · +14.9% completion over expected

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

21/33, 195 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-11.3 expected points added · -0.8% completion over expected

Rushing · TB

Bucky IrvingRB

15 att, 117 yds, 0 TD

4.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TB

Rachaad WhiteRB

15 att, 64 yds, 0 TD

-4.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TB

Mike EvansWR

9/11 for 159 yds, 2 TD

42% of team targets · 10.2 expected points added

Receiving · TB

Jalen McMillanWR

5/6 for 75 yds, 1 TD

23% of team targets · 8.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1TBTB 309703:46Touchdown +7
2LACLAC 3012554:56Touchdown +7
3TBTB 3013727:37Field goal +3
4LACLAC 269564:54Field goal +3
5TBTB 30200:08Interception
6LACTB 274271:27Touchdown +7
7TBTB 354101:36Fumble
8LACLAC 49441:59Punt
9TBTB 2012563:04Field goal +3
10LACLAC 26300:33End of half
11LACLAC 30561:43Punt
12TBTB 176832:54Touchdown +7
13LACLAC 297142:30Punt
14TBTB 305612:47Field goal +3
15LACLAC 10300:32Interception
16TBLAC 425472:58Touchdown +7
17LACLAC 339332:58Turnover on downs
18TBTB 3410666:01Touchdown +7
19LACLAC 30571:26Turnover on downs
20TBTB 459303:20Field goal +3
21LACLAC 32240:14Fumble
22TBLAC 374112:37End of game

11 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 83 scrimmage yards over 6 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Baker Mayfield22/2728841117.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Bucky Irving151177.804.1
Rachaad White15644.30-4.7
Baker Mayfield22512.500.8
Sean Tucker7172.40-3.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Mike Evans911159242%10.2
Jalen McMillan5675123%8.3
Cade Otton2324012%1.7
Rachaad White221718%0.3
Sterling Shepard111604%1.1
Ryan Miller11104%0.2
Bucky Irving22-408%-1.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Lavonte David841.500
Joe Tryon410.000
Zyon McCollum400.000
J.J. Russell310.000
Ryan Neal210.000
Jamel Dean210.012
Ryan Miller200.000
Logan Hall111.500
Josh Hayes110.000
Vi Jones200.000

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Justin Herbert21/33195213-11.3
Taylor Heinicke1/14000-0.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Gus Edwards8232.90-1.6
Kimani Vidal393.00-1.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Ladd McConkey5758122%0.8
Stone Smartt5650019%-4.3
Quentin Johnston51045131%-3.5
D.J. Chark221606%-2.1
Kimani Vidal231309%0.3
Josh Palmer231009%-0.6
Tucker Fisk11703%0.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Daiyan Henley370.001
Troy Dye541.000
Elijah Molden630.000
Kristian Fulton520.000
Junior Colson330.000
Tarheeb Still420.011
Derwin James410.000
Tony Jefferson220.000
Otito Ogbonnia220.000
Poona Ford300.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
LAC -3
Closing total
46
TB moneyline
+136
LAC moneyline
-162

Chargers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 46; the game landed 57 — over by 11.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
TB 7 days · LAC 7 days
Coaches
Todd Bowles vs Jim Harbaugh