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connecting · reading the slate
Game Center
2024 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 15, 2024 · SoFi Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 15
It turned at Q3 10:35, 2nd and 13, on Mike Evans — 22.8 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 40–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 10:35, Buccaneers +22.8% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 10:35 · 2nd and 13
Mike Evans
Buccaneers
(10:35) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
22.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Buccaneers won this one — 10 of 15 on third down, against Chargers at 0 of 6 on third down.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Buccaneers won this one — +0.62 expected points per dropback, against Chargers at -0.41 expected points per dropback.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Buccaneers won this one — +0.22 expected points per snap, against Chargers at -0.37 expected points per snap.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Buccaneers won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Chargers at 2 chunk plays.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 1.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
(10:35) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Mike Evans's 57-yard touchdown catch with 10:35 left in the 3rd put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Mike Evans57-yd TD catch57-yard touchdown catchfrom Baker MayfieldLead never changed again+720–1711 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Buccaneerscategory by categoryChargers
Buccaneers ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.62 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 67 snaps at a 45% dropback rate against Chargers’s 48 at 77%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 7, Chargers 3.
Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs -0.37.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LAC's pass rate over expected, +11.8 pts, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 1.0 points clear of the next team along.
48 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.7 points. · +2.0σ from their own normal
TB's early-down pass rate, 37.3%, is past their previous low of 44.2% in week 10 — the lowest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
51 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.1 points. · −1.8σ from their own normal
LAC's early-down pass rate, 75.0%, is past their previous high of 70.5% in week 12 — the highest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
40 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.6 points. · +1.7σ from their own normal
TB's sack or hit rate, 24.3%, is past their previous high of 22.5% in week 12 — the highest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.0 points. · +1.5σ from their own normal
LAC's sack or hit rate turned over: 28.6% in week 14 against 6.7% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 3.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points. · −1.1σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Buccaneers-6.1 ptsinside their normal wobble · −6.1 vs their -0.0 pts, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.97× that swing) · 67 snaps
Chargers11.8 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +13.4 vs their -1.6 pts, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+2.00× that swing) · 48 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 26% to 85%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers37.3%leaned — ran early · −18.0 vs their 55.2%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (−1.78× that swing) · 51 early downs
Chargers75.0%leaned — passed early · +19.8 vs their 55.2%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (+1.70× that swing) · 40 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 62%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers16.7%right on their number · −2.6 vs their 19.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.30× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Chargers24.3%inside their normal wobble · −6.4 vs their 30.7%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (−0.52× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -51% to 94%
Fourth Down room →Buccaneers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 21.4%.
Chargers—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 17.9%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 91%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers54.1%inside their normal wobble · +10.2 vs their 43.9%, and they swing ±18.3 week to week (+0.56× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Chargers33.3%inside their normal wobble · +8.5 vs their 24.8%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (+0.83× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 32%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers24.3%leaned — got home · +8.8 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+1.46× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Chargers6.7%leaned — stayed blocked · −7.4 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−1.05× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
LAC's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 11.8 pts, 13.4 points above their season mean of -1.6 pts and 2.0 times their own 6.7-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Los Angeles Chargers
48 dressed · 6 inactive
Inactive · 6
Who moved the needle
Passing · TB
22/27, 288 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT
17.9 expected points added · +14.9% completion over expected
Passing · LAC
21/33, 195 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
-11.3 expected points added · -0.8% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Mike Evans banked 16.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike EvansWR · Alpha Receiver | 36.9 | +16.8 | 65% | 87% | 42% | 56% | 9/11, 159 yd, 2 TD |
| Baker MayfieldQB · Starter QB | 28.0 | +9.3 | 94% | — | 0% | — | 22/27, 288 yd, 4 TD, 1 INT · 2 car, 25 yd |
| Jalen McMillanWR · Featured Receiver | 18.5 | +7.8 | 64% | 87% | 23% | 31% | 5/6, 75 yd, 1 TD |
| Ladd McConkeyWR · Featured Receiver | 16.8 | +4.8 | 88% | 92% | 22% | 21% | 5/7, 58 yd, 1 TD |
| Quentin JohnstonWR · Alpha Receiver | 15.5 | −0.6 | 73% | 73% | 31% | 41% | 5/10, 45 yd, 1 TD |
| Rachaad WhiteRB · Committee Back | 14.1 | +1.5 | 51% | 60% | 8% | 0% | 15 car, 64 yd · 2/2, 17 yd, 1 TD |
| Justin HerbertQB · Starter QB | 13.8 | +1.0 | 98% | — | 0% | — | 21/33, 195 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT |
| Bucky IrvingRB · Committee Back | 13.3 | +1.1 | 44% | 40% | 8% | 0% | 15 car, 117 yd · 2/2, -4 yd |
| Stone SmarttTE · Featured Receiver | 8.0 | −1.7 | 67% | 70% | 19% | 21% | 5/6, 50 yd |
| Cade OttonTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.4 | −1.9 | 92% | 97% | 12% | 15% | 2/3, 24 yd |
| Kimani VidalRB | 4.2 | −1.7 | 67% | 78% | 9% | 1% | 3 car, 9 yd · 2/3, 13 yd |
| D.J. CharkWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.6 | +0.5 | 17% | 22% | 6% | 5% | 2/2, 16 yd |
| Josh PalmerWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.0 | −1.9 | 75% | 84% | 9% | 9% | 2/3, 10 yd |
| Sterling ShepardWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | +0.6 | 50% | 70% | 4% | 6% | 1/1, 16 yd |
| Gus EdwardsRB · Bell Cow Back | 2.3 | −1.9 | 27% | 14% | 0% | — | 8 car, 23 yd |
| Tucker FiskTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | +0.1 | 27% | 22% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 7 yd |
| Sean TuckerRB | 1.7 | −1.0 | 11% | 3% | 0% | — | 7 car, 17 yd |
| Ryan MillerWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.1 | −0.7 | 21% | 3% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 1 yd |
| Taylor HeinickeQB | 0.2 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Derius DavisWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Trey PalmerWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 24% | 17% | 0% | — | No touches. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(10:35) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 10:35 · Buccaneers · 2nd & 13 at TB 43 · gained 57 · +5.68 EP · +22.0% win probability
154 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 164 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 153 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 158. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
11 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 83 yards from the TB 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
164 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
164 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Buccaneers6
Chargers0Buccaneers7Chargers0Buccaneers7Chargers6Buccaneers7Chargers7Buccaneers10Chargers7Buccaneers10Chargers10How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Buccaneers10Chargers16Buccaneers10Chargers17Buccaneers13Chargers17How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
Buccaneers19Chargers17Buccaneers20Chargers17How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Buccaneers23Chargers17How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Buccaneers29Chargers17Buccaneers30Chargers17Buccaneers36Chargers17Buccaneers37Chargers17Buccaneers40Chargers17Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Buccaneers at Chargers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 22/27 | 288 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +17.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | 15 | 117 | 7.8 | 0 | +4.1 |
| Rachaad White | 15 | 64 | 4.3 | 0 | −4.7 |
| Baker Mayfield |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 9 | 11 | 159 | 2 | 42% | +10.2 |
| Jalen McMillan | 5 | 6 | 75 | 1 | 23% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lavonte David | 8 | 4 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Joe Tryon | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zyon McCollum |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 21/33 | 195 | 2 | 1 | 3 | −11.3 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 1/1 | 4 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_15_TB_LAC
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Chargers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 46; the game landed 57 — over by 11.0.
Conditions and crew
| 2 |
| 25 |
| 12.5 |
| 0 |
| +0.8 |
| Sean Tucker | 7 | 17 | 2.4 | 0 | −3.0 |
| +8.3 |
| Cade Otton | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 12% | +1.7 |
| Rachaad White | 2 | 2 | 17 | 1 | 8% | +0.3 |
| Sterling Shepard | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 4% | +1.1 |
| Ryan Miller | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4% | +0.2 |
| Bucky Irving | 2 | 2 | -4 | 0 | 8% | −1.8 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| J.J. Russell | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Neal | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamel Dean | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Ryan Miller | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Logan Hall | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Hayes | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vi Jones | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| −0.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Edwards | 8 | 23 | 2.9 | 0 | −1.6 |
| Kimani Vidal | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 | −1.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladd McConkey | 5 | 7 | 58 | 1 | 22% | +0.8 |
| Stone Smartt | 5 | 6 | 50 | 0 | 19% | −4.3 |
| Quentin Johnston | 5 | 10 | 45 | 1 | 31% | −3.5 |
| D.J. Chark | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 6% | −2.1 |
| Kimani Vidal | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 9% | +0.3 |
| Josh Palmer | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 9% | −0.6 |
| Tucker Fisk | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3% | +0.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daiyan Henley | 3 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Troy Dye | 5 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elijah Molden | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kristian Fulton | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Junior Colson | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tarheeb Still | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Derwin James | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tony Jefferson | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Otito Ogbonnia | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Poona Ford | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
