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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:36 AM ET · 16 to play
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 32 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
MarketModelmodel higher on Saintshigher on Commanders162 of 175 plays carry both curves
Q4 · 0:00Commanders 20 — Saints 19NO ballWAS 62%
Commanders 62%Saints 38%
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 18-S.Rattler pass to 83-J.Johnson is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
Swing −37.6 for SaintsExpected points −0.95 for SaintsThe model had Saints 5 points higher than the market did.play 173
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:00WAS +38% win probTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 18-S.Rattler pass to 83-J.Johnson is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
4th · 0:03NO +25% win prob(:03) (Shotgun) 18-S.Rattler pass short right to 87-F.Moreau for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:17NO +9% win prob(:17) (Shotgun) 18-S.Rattler pass short right to 87-F.Moreau to WAS 1 for 7 yards (1-N.Igbinoghene; 0-M.Sainristil).
4th · 2:00WAS +7% win prob(2:00) 46-G.Joseph 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
4th · 0:41WAS +6% win prob(:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 25-K.Miller left guard to WAS 17 for -2 yards (92-D.Armstrong).
1st · 13:37WAS +5% win prob(13:37) (Shotgun) 3-J.Haener pass short right to 11-C.Wilson to WAS 44 for 15 yards (0-M.Sainristil; 11-J.Chinn) [4-F.Luvu]. PENALTY on NO-62-L.Patrick, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 41 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Terry McLaurin's 16-yard touchdown catch with 5:39 left in the 1st put Washington Commanders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Commanders ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.07Commanders: +0.07 expected points added per play
−0.09Saints: −0.09 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.16Commanders: +0.16 expected points added per play
−0.06Saints: −0.06 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.06Commanders: −0.06 expected points added per play
−0.16Saints: −0.16 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 74 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Saints’s 51 at 71%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 3, Saints 3.
NoteCommanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.09.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 14 pts
inside their normal wobble · +5.0 vs their 14.4%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+0.82× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Saints17.8%
inside their normal wobble · +5.7 vs their 12.0%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+0.81× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was WAS's pass rate over expected, 4.4 pts against a season mean of -0.3 pts — and WAS swings 5.4 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Commanders←Saints→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
S.Rattler pass−43% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 18-S.Rattler pass to 83-J.Johnson is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
Q4 0:00 · Saints · — at WAS 2 · gained nothing · -0.95 EP · −42.6% win probability
160 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 175 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 160 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 170. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 71 yards from the NO 29 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
175 of 175 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
175
EPA per play
+0.01
Success rate
44%
Yards
571
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR47+0.2162%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR24-0.1271%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17-0.1747%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.4292%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10-0.0440%
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Commanders1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Saints 34 to the Saints 41
Commanders6Saints0
Commanders7Saints0
Touchdown16 plays, from the Commanders 44 to the Saints 3
Punt8 plays, from the Saints 28 to the Commanders 44
The period ended4 plays, from the Commanders 8 to the Commanders 16
2nd quarter48 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Commanders 21 to the Commanders 38
Intercepted3 plays, from the Saints 26 to the Saints 32
Commanders13Saints0
Commanders14Saints0
Touchdown12 plays, from the Commanders 47 to the Saints 3
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Saints 35
The period ended9 plays, from the Commanders 29 to the Commanders 40
Punt8 plays, from the Saints 29 to the Saints 46
The period ended5 plays, from the Commanders 2 to the Commanders 20
3rd quarter32 plays
Commanders17Saints0
Field goal12 plays, from the Commanders 32 to the Saints 1
Commanders17Saints6
Commanders17Saints7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Saints 29 to the Commanders 21
The period ended11 plays, from the Commanders 32 to the Saints 23
4th quarter60 plays
Commanders20Saints7
Field goal1 play
Commanders20Saints10
Field goal12 plays, from the Saints 26 to the Commanders 17
Punt7 plays, from the Commanders 37 to midfield
Commanders20Saints13
Field goal7 plays, from the Saints 8 to the Commanders 33
No good18 plays, from the Commanders 36 to the Saints 30
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Commanders20Saints19
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Touchdown13 plays, from the Saints 44 to the Commanders 1
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Commanders -7.5
Closing total
44.5
Commanders moneyline
-375
Saints moneyline
+295
Commanders closed -7.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 39 — under by 5.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface
dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
Commanders 14 days · Saints 7 days
Coaches
Dan Quinn vs Dennis Allen
1st · 12:17
NO +4% win prob
(12:17) 43-M.Hayball punts 46 yards to WAS 34, Center-49-Z.Wood. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 44 for 10 yards (53-J.Ford).
1st · 7:57NO +4% win prob(7:57) 46-G.Joseph 45 yard field goal is GOOD, NULLIFIED by Penalty, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. PENALTY on NO-98-P.Turner, Unnecessary Roughness, 13 yards, enforced at NO 26 - No Play.
