2024 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 15, 2024 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Washington CommandersWinner
20
New Orleans Saints
19
Washington Commanders 20–19 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:00, WAS +38% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 18-S.Rattler pass to 83-J.Johnson is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
Highest-leverage plays
- Q4 · 0:00WAS +38% win probTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 18-S.Rattler pass to 83-J.Johnson is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
- Q4 · 0:03NO +25% win prob(:03) (Shotgun) 18-S.Rattler pass short right to 87-F.Moreau for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
- Q4 · 0:17NO +9% win prob(:17) (Shotgun) 18-S.Rattler pass short right to 87-F.Moreau to WAS 1 for 7 yards (1-N.Igbinoghene; 0-M.Sainristil).
- Q4 · 2:00WAS +7% win prob(2:00) 46-G.Joseph 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
How the points landed
Scoring summary
- Q1 · 5:39WAS Touchdown
(5:39) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep left to 17-T.McLaurin for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: WAS 7 — NO 0 - Q2 · 5:43WAS Touchdown
(5:43) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: WAS 14 — NO 0 - Q3 · 8:15WAS Field goal
(8:15) 46-G.Joseph 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
Score after this play: WAS 17 — NO 0 - Q3 · 5:53NO Touchdown
(5:53) 11-C.Wilson pass deep right to 41-A.Kamara for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: WAS 17 — NO 7 - Q4 · 15:00WAS Field goal
(15:00) 46-G.Joseph 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
Score after this play: WAS 20 — NO 7 - Q4 · 11:13NO Field goal
(11:13) 19-B.Grupe 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.
Score after this play: WAS 20 — NO 10 - Q4 · 7:02NO Field goal
(7:02) 19-B.Grupe 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.
Score after this play: WAS 20 — NO 13 - Q4 · 0:03NO Touchdown
(:03) (Shotgun) 18-S.Rattler pass short right to 87-F.Moreau for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: WAS 20 — NO 19
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Commanders | Saints |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 74 | 51 |
| Total yards | 326 (edge) | 245 |
| Yards per play | 4.4 | 4.8 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | 0.07 (edge) | -0.09 |
| Success rate | 50% (edge) | 35% |
| Dropback rate | 61% | 71% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.16 (edge) | -0.06 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.06 (edge) | -0.16 |
| Third downs | 9/18 (edge) | 3/11 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 4 | 7 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 22 (edge) | 15 |
| Sacks taken | 8 | 3 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 0 (edge) | 1 |
Commanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.09.
Who moved the needle
Top performers
Passing · WAS
25/31, 226 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
1.1 expected points added · +11.4% completion over expected
Passing · NO
10/21, 135 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
6.3 expected points added · -15.0% completion over expected
Receiving · NO
2/7 for 64 yds, 0 TD
24% of team targets · 1.6 expected points added
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NO | NO 34 | 5 | -4 | 2:53 | Punt | |
| 2 | WAS | WAS 44 | 13 | 61 | 6:39 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 3 | NO | NO 28 | 7 | 23 | 3:41 | Punt | |
| 4 | WAS | WAS 8 | 9 | 26 | 4:45 | Punt | |
| 5 | NO | NO 26 | 3 | 6 | 0:37 | Interception | |
| 6 | WAS | WAS 47 | 11 | 63 | 5:47 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 7 | NO | NO 30 | 5 | -4 | 2:00 | Punt | |
| 8 | WAS | WAS 29 | 7 | -3 | 2:07 | Punt | |
| 9 | NO | NO 29 | 7 | 17 | 0:41 | Punt | |
| 10 | WAS | WAS 2 | 3 | 18 | 0:50 | End of half | |
| 11 | WAS | WAS 32 | 12 | 63 | 6:48 | Field goal +3 | |
| 12 | NO | NO 29 | 8 | 76 | 2:27 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 13 | WAS | WAS 32 | 10 | 50 | 5:49 | Field goal +3 | |
| 14 | NO | NO 26 | 10 | 31 | 3:47 | Field goal +3 | |
| 15 | WAS | WAS 37 | 7 | 10 | 3:03 | Punt | |
| 16 | NO | NO 8 | 7 | 44 | 1:09 | Field goal +3 | |
| 17 | WAS | WAS 36 | 14 | 38 | 5:02 | Missed field goal | |
| 18 | NO | NO 44 | 12 | 56 | 1:55 | Touchdown +6 |
8 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 76 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
Box score
Washington Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 25/31 | 226 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 1.1 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 11 | 66 | 6.0 | 0 | 9.0 |
| Brian Robinson | 21 | 65 | 3.1 | 0 | -3.3 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | -0.9 |
| Chris Rodriguez | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | -0.7 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 7 | 10 | 73 | 2 | 32% | 5.3 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 | 13% | 2.8 |
| Dyami Brown | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 13% | 0.0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 10% | 1.6 |
| Zach Ertz | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 6% | 2.5 |
| Brian Robinson | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 10% | 1.2 |
| Ben Sinnott | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3% | -0.5 |
| John Bates | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | 1.1 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | -1.2 |
| Luke McCaffrey | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.2 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Chinn | 5 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darrick Forrest | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Sainristil | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Quan Martin | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby Wagner | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dorance Armstrong | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Noah Igbinoghene | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mykal Walker | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Magee | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jer'Zhan Newton | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
New Orleans Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Rattler | 10/21 | 135 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6.3 |
| Jake Haener | 4/10 | 49 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -9.4 |
| Cedrick Wilson | 1/1 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendre Miller | 9 | 46 | 5.1 | 0 | -0.2 |
| Alvin Kamara | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 | -1.8 |
| Jake Haener | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | -1.0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | -0.3 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 2 | 7 | 64 | 0 | 24% | 1.6 |
| Alvin Kamara | 4 | 5 | 58 | 1 | 17% | -0.1 |
| Foster Moreau | 4 | 4 | 39 | 1 | 14% | 7.5 |
| Dante Pettis | 2 | 5 | 24 | 0 | 17% | 0.0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 10% | -1.5 |
| Kevin Austin | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 10% | -0.8 |
| Cedrick Wilson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.9 |
| Kendre Miller | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.4 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demario Davis | 9 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Will Harris | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pete Werner | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ugochukwu Amadi | 5 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kool-Aid McKinstry | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Jordan | 3 | 3 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrann Mathieu | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carl Granderson | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alontae Taylor | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chase Young | 3 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- WAS -7.5
- Closing total
- 44.5
- WAS moneyline
- -375
- NO moneyline
- +295
Commanders closed -7.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 39 — under by 5.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- Mercedes-Benz Superdome
- Roof / surface
- dome · sportturf
- Kickoff weather
- Indoors — weather neutralized
- Referee
- Shawn Hochuli
- Rest
- WAS 14 days · NO 7 days
- Coaches
- Dan Quinn vs Dennis Allen