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2024 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 22, 2024 · Bank of America Stadium

Arizona Cardinals

30

Carolina PanthersWinner

36

ARI -5.5 upsetO 47 ✓

Carolina Panthers 36–30. Biggest swing: OT 4:22, CAR +50% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3End Q4CAR ↑ARI ↓
OT · 4:22ARI 30 — CAR 30ARI ball · 4th & 28CAR 90%

(4:22) 10-M.Palardy punts 47 yards to CAR 49, Center-46-A.Brewer. 13-D.Thompkins to ARI 49 for 2 yards (52-V.Dimukeje).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. OT · 4:22CAR +50% win prob(4:22) 10-M.Palardy punts 47 yards to CAR 49, Center-46-A.Brewer. 13-D.Thompkins to ARI 49 for 2 yards (52-V.Dimukeje).
  2. OT · 7:53CAR +33% win prob(7:53) 10-J.Hekker punts 57 yards to ARI 10, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-32-L.Johnson.
  3. OT · 4:11CAR +32% win prob(4:11) 30-C.Hubbard right tackle to ARI 21 for 28 yards (34-J.Thompson).
  4. OT · 3:24CAR +28% win prob(3:24) 62-C.Zavala reported in as eligible. 30-C.Hubbard right tackle for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 5:00CAR Touchdown

    (5:00) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ARI 0 — CAR 7
  2. Q2 · 14:41ARI Field goal

    (14:41) 38-C.Ryland 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-10-M.Palardy.

    Score after this play: ARI 3 — CAR 7
  3. Q2 · 11:44CAR Touchdown

    (11:44) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young scrambles left end for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on ARI-23-S.Murphy-Bunting, Illegal Contact, declined.

    Score after this play: ARI 3 — CAR 13
  4. Q2 · 8:01CAR Touchdown

    (8:01) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 19-A.Thielen for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ARI 3 — CAR 20
  5. Q2 · 6:02ARI Touchdown

    (6:02) 6-J.Conner left tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ARI 10 — CAR 20
  6. Q2 · 0:11ARI Touchdown

    (:11) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 20-D.Dallas for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ARI 17 — CAR 20
  7. Q3 · 9:34CAR Field goal

    (9:34) 4-E.Pineiro 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

    Score after this play: ARI 17 — CAR 23
  8. Q3 · 5:03ARI Field goal

    (5:03) 38-C.Ryland 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-10-M.Palardy.

    Score after this play: ARI 20 — CAR 23
  9. Q4 · 12:10CAR Touchdown

    (12:10) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 83-D.Moore for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ARI 20 — CAR 30
  10. Q4 · 7:03ARI Touchdown

    (7:03) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray right end for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ARI 27 — CAR 30
  11. Q4 · 0:02ARI Field goal

    (:02) 38-C.Ryland 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-10-M.Palardy.

    Score after this play: ARI 30 — CAR 30
  12. OT · 3:24CAR Touchdown

    (3:24) 62-C.Zavala reported in as eligible. 30-C.Hubbard right tackle for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: ARI 30 — CAR 36

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricCardinalsPanthers
Offensive plays6464
Total yards382393 (edge)
Yards per play6.06.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.160.25 (edge)
Success rate52% (edge)45%
Dropback rate64%52%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.130.22 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.220.28 (edge)
Third downs6/13 (edge)6/14
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)79 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps2020
Sacks taken33
Turnovers20 (edge)

Panthers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs 0.16.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ARI

Kyler MurrayQB

20/32, 202 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

1.3 expected points added · -1.1% completion over expected

Passing · CAR

Bryce YoungQB

17/26, 158 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

1.1 expected points added · +5.6% completion over expected

Rushing · CAR

Chuba HubbardRB

25 att, 152 yds, 2 TD

9.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ARI

James ConnerRB

15 att, 117 yds, 1 TD

4.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ARI

James ConnerRB

4/4 for 49 yds, 0 TD

14% of team targets · 3.9 expected points added

Receiving · ARI

Michael WilsonWR

2/5 for 44 yds, 0 TD

17% of team targets · 0.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1ARIARI 405112:07Punt
2CARCAR 3016517:58Touchdown +7
3ARIARI 159695:18Field goal +3
4CARCAR 308703:02Touchdown +6
5ARIARI 206112:16Fumble
6CARARI 305301:24Touchdown +7
7ARIARI 306551:58Touchdown +7
8CARCAR 20551:37Punt
9ARIARI 3210634:13Touchdown +7
10CARCAR 30200:07End of half
11CARCAR 3412555:29Field goal +3
12ARIARI 3010584:31Field goal +3
13CARCAR 308274:01Punt
14ARIARI 20430:56Punt
15CARCAR 427582:59Touchdown +7
16ARIARI 3011755:08Touchdown +7
17CARCAR 305102:04Punt
18ARIARI 383-11:42Interception
19CARCAR 147351:23Punt
20ARIARI 267351:47Field goal +3
21CARCAR 30532:21Punt
22ARIARI 10833:28Punt
23CARARI 492490:53Touchdown +6

12 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cardinals gained 75 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Kyler Murray20/322021131.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
James Conner151177.814.9
Kyler Murray8637.912.9
Michael Carter5183.600.9
Greg Dortch188.000.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
James Conner4449014%3.9
Michael Wilson2544017%0.4
Marvin Harrison4839028%-0.6
Michael Carter5530017%0.9
Trey McBride3420014%0.1
Greg Dortch111903%1.4
DeeJay Dallas11113%1.7
Elijah Higgins01003%-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jalen Thompson730.001
Kyzir White431.000
Garrett Williams420.000
Budda Baker240.000
Owen Pappoe230.001
Sean Murphy-Bunting410.000
Dadrion Taylor-Demerson130.000
Roy Lopez120.000
Naquan Jones211.000
Victor Dimukeje210.000

Carolina Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Bryce Young17/261582031.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Chuba Hubbard251526.129.7
Bryce Young56813.616.0
Raheem Blackshear3134.30-0.1
Deven Thompkins199.000.8
Mike Boone111.00-0.4
David Moore100.00-1.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Adam Thielen5643125%6.9
David Moore2339113%2.8
Tommy Tremble3332013%2.5
Dan Chisena122308%0.7
Chuba Hubbard4513021%-2.3
Jalen Coker258021%-3.0

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jacoby Windmon441.001
A'Shawn Robinson341.000
Demani Richardson330.011
Xavier Woods420.000
Josey Jewell330.001
Michael Jackson510.002
D.J. Wonnum231.000
Chau Smith-Wade320.000
Jaycee Horn130.000
LaBryan Ray130.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
ARI -5.5
Closing total
47
ARI moneyline
-245
CAR moneyline
+200

Cardinals closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 47; the game landed 66 — over by 19.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
37°F, wind 10 mph
Referee
Adrian Hill
Rest
ARI 7 days · CAR 7 days
Coaches
Jonathan Gannon vs Dave Canales