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2024 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 22, 2024 · Bank of America Stadium
Final
CardinalsArizona30
BY 6final margin
PanthersCarolina36
Arizona Cardinals 30 at Carolina Panthers 36. Final.
Cardinals -5.5 upset
The verdict · 2024 Week 16
Carolina Panthers 36, Cardinals 30 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at OT 4:22, 4th and 28 — 49.8 win-probability points to the Cardinals on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · OT 4:22 · 4th and 28
Unnamed on the sheet
Cardinals
(4:22) 10-M.Palardy punts 47 yards to CAR 49, Center-46-A.Brewer. 13-D.Thompkins to ARI 49 for 2 yards (52-V.Dimukeje).
O 47 ✓
Cardinals closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Carolina Panthers 36–30. Biggest swing: OT 4:22, Cardinals +49.8% win probability on one snap.
49.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetPanthersOT 7:53(7:53) 10-J.Hekker punts 57 yards to ARI 10, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-32-L.Johnson.
32.5pts
Chuba HubbardPanthersOT 4:11(4:11) 30-C.Hubbard right tackle to ARI 21 for 28 yards (34-J.Thompson).
32.0pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Panthers won this one — no giveaways, against Cardinals at 2 giveaways.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Cardinals owned this one and still lost it — 52% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Panthers at 45% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Cardinalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Panthers won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Cardinals at 7 chunk plays.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Cardinals owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Panthers at 3 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Cardinalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
2 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so those portraits are withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 15.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 30 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Panthershigher on Cardinals179 of 191 plays carry both curves
(4:22) 10-M.Palardy punts 47 yards to CAR 49, Center-46-A.Brewer. 13-D.Thompkins to ARI 49 for 2 yards (52-V.Dimukeje).
Swing −49.8 for PanthersExpected points +0.04 for PanthersModel and market agree here.play 187
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 4:22CAR +50% win prob(4:22) 10-M.Palardy punts 47 yards to CAR 49, Center-46-A.Brewer. 13-D.Thompkins to ARI 49 for 2 yards (52-V.Dimukeje).
Overtime · 7:53CAR +33% win prob(7:53) 10-J.Hekker punts 57 yards to ARI 10, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-32-L.Johnson.
Overtime · 4:11CAR +32% win prob(4:11) 30-C.Hubbard right tackle to ARI 21 for 28 yards (34-J.Thompson).
Overtime · 3:24CAR +28% win prob(3:24) 62-C.Zavala reported in as eligible. 30-C.Hubbard right tackle for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:02CAR +20% win prob(:02) 38-C.Ryland 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-10-M.Palardy.
Overtime · 8:38ARI +20% win prob(8:38) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at CAR 33 for -5 yards (7-K.White).
Overtime · 5:26
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Chuba Hubbard's 21-yard rushing touchdown with 3:24 left in overtime put Carolina Panthers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th0:02Chad Ryland·58-yd field goal58-yard field goalholder M.Palardy · snap A.Brewer+330–30
Overtime3:24Chuba Hubbard·21-yd TD run21-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+630–36
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cardinalscategory by categoryPanthers
Cardinals2–4Panthers
382Total yards393
6.0Yards per play6.1
52%Success rate45%
46%Third-down rate43%
3Red-zone touchdowns3
7Explosive plays9
20First downs20
3Sacks taken3
2Turnovers0
The read
Panthers ahead 4–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.16Cardinals: +0.16 expected points added per play
+0.25Panthers: +0.25 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.13Cardinals: +0.13 expected points added per play
+0.22Panthers: +0.22 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.22Cardinals: +0.22 expected points added per play
+0.28Panthers: +0.28 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 64 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Panthers’s 64 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 4, Panthers 5.
NotePanthers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs 0.16.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CAR's early-down pass rate turned over: 68.4% in week 15 against 41.7% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 16 pts
right on their number · +0.1 vs their 12.0%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+0.02× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Panthers7.3%
inside their normal wobble · −2.7 vs their 10.0%, and they swing ±3.8 week to week (−0.71× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
NoteCAR's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 41.7%, 15.1 points below their season mean of 56.8% and 1.5 times their own 9.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Arizona Cardinals
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
68Kelvin BeachumT · Every snap100%70 snaps
62Evan BrownC · Every snap100%70 snaps
74Isaiah AdamsG · Every snap100%70 snaps
72Hjalte FroholdtC · Every snap100%70 snaps
1Kyler MurrayQB · Every snap100%70 snaps
85Trey McBrideTE · Full-time93%65 snaps
14Michael WilsonWR · Full-time90%63 snaps
18Marvin Harrison Jr.WR · Full-time81%57 snaps
—Jonah WilliamsT · Heavy rotation57%40 snaps
6James ConnerRB · Rotational44%31 snaps
66Jackson BartonT · Rotational43%30 snaps
17Zay JonesWR · Rotational39%27 snaps
87Tip ReimanTE · Rotational37%26 snaps
22Michael CarterRB · Rotational36%25 snaps
4Greg DortchWR · Rotational30%21 snaps
84Elijah HigginsTE · Rotational27%19 snaps
20DeeJay DallasRB · Situational23%16 snaps
Inactive · 7
Mack WilsonILBTrey BensonRBJammie RobinsonSSChristian JonesTParis Johnson Jr.TTravis VokolekTEXavier WeaverWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Clayton TuneQBJonah WilliamsT
Carolina Panthers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
79Ikem EkwonuT · Every snap100%68 snaps
72Taylor MotonT · Every snap100%68 snaps
68Damien LewisG · Every snap100%68 snaps
50Robert HuntG · Every snap100%68 snaps
9Bryce YoungQB · Every snap100%68 snaps
70Brady ChristensenG · Every snap100%68 snaps
83David MooreWR · Full-time90%61 snaps
30Chuba HubbardRB · Full-time84%57 snaps
18Jalen CokerWR · Full-time82%56 snaps
82Tommy TrembleTE · Heavy rotation75%51 snaps
19Adam ThielenWR · Heavy rotation59%40 snaps
0Ja'Tavion SandersTE · Heavy rotation57%39 snaps
62Chandler ZavalaG · Situational19%13 snaps
3Raheem BlackshearRB · Situational10%7 snaps
13Deven ThompkinsWR · Situational10%7 snaps
88Dan ChisenaWR · Situational6%4 snaps
34Mike BooneRB · Situational6%4 snaps
84Feleipe FranksTE · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Shemar BartholomewCBAkayleb EvansCBJordan FullerFSCade MaysGBrandon WaltonGXavier LegetteWRVelus Jones Jr.WR
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cardinals←Panthers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
M.Palardy punts+50% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(4:22) 10-M.Palardy punts 47 yards to CAR 49, Center-46-A.Brewer. 13-D.Thompkins to ARI 49 for 2 yards (52-V.Dimukeje).
OT 4:22 · Cardinals · 4th & 28 at ARI 4 · gained nothing · -0.04 EP · +49.8% win probability
177 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 191 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 177 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 185. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 70 yards from the CAR 30 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
191 of 191 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
191
EPA per play
+0.14
Success rate
46%
Yards
774
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37+0.1362%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34+0.0665%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR22+0.2045%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.5440%
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.160%
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7+0.2929%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+0.760%
Cardinals2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
191 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
191 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Cardinals 40 to the Cardinals 46
Cardinals0Panthers6
Cardinals0Panthers7
Touchdown19 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Cardinals 3
The period ended12 plays, from the Cardinals 15 to the Panthers 22
2nd quarter48 plays
Cardinals3Panthers7
Field goal2 plays
Cardinals3Panthers13
Touchdown8 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Cardinals 23
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Cardinals 20 to the Cardinals 31
Cardinals3Panthers19
Cardinals3Panthers20
Touchdown5 plays, from the Cardinals 30 to the Cardinals 8
Cardinals9Panthers20
Cardinals10Panthers20
Touchdown6 plays, from the Cardinals 30 to the Panthers 6
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 20 to the Panthers 25
Cardinals16Panthers20
Cardinals17Panthers20
Touchdown13 plays, from the Cardinals 32 to the Panthers 1
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
Cardinals17Panthers23
Field goal12 plays, from the Panthers 34 to the Cardinals 11
Cardinals20Panthers23
Field goal10 plays, from the Cardinals 30 to the Panthers 12
Punt8 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Cardinals 43
Punt4 plays, from the Cardinals 20 to the Cardinals 23
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter48 plays
Cardinals20Panthers29
Cardinals20Panthers30
Touchdown6 plays, from the Panthers 47 to the Cardinals 18
Cardinals26Panthers30
Cardinals27Panthers30
Touchdown12 plays, from the Cardinals 30 to the Panthers 15
Punt7 plays
Intercepted4 plays, from the Cardinals 38 to the Panthers 48
Punt10 plays, from the Panthers 14 to the Panthers 49
Cardinals30Panthers30
Field goal8 plays, from the Cardinals 26 to the Panthers 39
Overtime21 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Panthers 38
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket, the sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Punt12 plays, from the Cardinals 10 to the Cardinals 27
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Cardinals30Panthers36
Touchdown3 plays, from the Cardinals 49 to the Cardinals 21
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
