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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:36 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 22, 2024 · Paycor Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 16
It turned at Q1 12:16, 1st and 1, on D'Onta Foreman — 14.9 win-probability points to the Bengals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 12:16 · 1st and 1
D'Onta Foreman
Bengals
(12:16) 68-M.Dunn and 59-W.Reid reported in as eligible. 27-D.Foreman right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 68-M.Dunn and 59-W.Reid reported in as eligible. 27-D.Foreman right guard to CIN 1 for no gain (50-S.Heyward, 24-V.Bell). FUMBLES (24-V.Bell), RECOVERED by CIN-24-V.Bell at CIN 1.
Cincinnati Bengals 24–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 12:16, Bengals +14.9% win probability on one snap.
14.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Bengals won this one — 55% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Browns at 35% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bengals won this one — +0.11 expected points per snap, against Browns at -0.28 expected points per snap.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Bengals won this one — 1 giveaway, against Browns at 3 giveaways.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Bengals won this one — +0.12 expected points per dropback, against Browns at -0.37 expected points per dropback.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 8.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 32 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
(12:16) 68-M.Dunn and 59-W.Reid reported in as eligible. 27-D.Foreman right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 68-M.Dunn and 59-W.Reid
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Tee Higgins's 2-yard touchdown catch with 7:18 left in the 1st put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
5 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Brownscategory by categoryBengals
Bengals ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.37 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 63 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Bengals’s 55 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Browns 3, Bengals 4.
Bengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.28.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CIN's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 25.0% in week 1 — the lowest of their 7 charted games through week 16.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 8 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 27.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -12 pts to 25 pts
Over Expected room →Browns-5.0 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −5.3 vs their 0.3 pts, and they swing ±4.5 week to week (−1.19× that swing) · 63 snaps
Bengals13.4 ptsinside their normal wobble · +5.5 vs their 7.9 pts, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+0.85× that swing) · 55 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 40% to 87%
Tendencies room →Browns58.3%inside their normal wobble · −5.3 vs their 63.7%, and they swing ±9.3 week to week (−0.57× that swing) · 48 early downs
Bengals59.1%right on their number · −3.0 vs their 62.1%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (−0.38× that swing) · 44 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 3% to 41%
Tendencies room →Browns28.6%inside their normal wobble · +6.1 vs their 22.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+0.85× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Bengals27.8%leaned — faked the run · +9.5 vs their 18.3%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+1.63× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26% to 123%
Fourth Down room →Browns—Only 0 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 59.1%.
Bengals0.0%leaned — took the kick · −45.8 vs their 45.8%, and they swing ±27.8 week to week (−1.65× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 71%
Tendencies room →Browns25.0%right on their number · −6.0 vs their 31.0%, and they swing ±15.6 week to week (−0.38× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Bengals21.4%inside their normal wobble · −6.3 vs their 27.7%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−0.69× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 40%
Tendencies room →Browns22.2%right on their number · +3.6 vs their 18.6%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+0.44× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Bengals23.8%leaned — got home · +8.5 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+1.06× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
CIN's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 45.8 points below their season mean of 45.8% and 1.6 times their own 27.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Cincinnati Bengals
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · CIN
23/30, 252 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
3.1 expected points added · +18.1% completion over expected
Passing · CLE
20/34, 157 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
-17.8 expected points added · -3.5% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Jerome Ford banked 10.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome FordRB · Committee Back | 24.1 | +10.2 | 80% | 74% | 16% | 0% | 11 car, 92 yd, 1 TD · 5/5, 39 yd |
| Ja'Marr ChaseWR · Alpha Receiver | 22.4 | +6.9 | 89% | 89% | 29% | 29% | 1 car, 7 yd · 6/8, 97 yd, 1 TD |
| Joe BurrowQB · Starter QB | 22.0 | +2.7 | 98% | — | 0% | — | 23/30, 252 yd, 3 TD · 2 car, 19 yd |
| Tee HigginsWR · Alpha Receiver | 19.8 | −2.2 | 71% | 72% | 39% | 33% | 8/11, 58 yd, 1 TD |
| David NjokuTE · Alpha Receiver | 14.6 | +0.5 | 62% | 57% | 32% | 30% | 8/10, 66 yd |
| Andrei IosivasWR · Rotational Receiver | 14.3 | +6.7 | 68% | 67% | 11% | 21% | 3/3, 53 yd, 1 TD |
| Chase BrownRB · Bell Cow Back | 13.9 | −5.7 | 98% | 92% | 11% | 3% | 18 car, 91 yd · 3/3, 18 yd |
| Dorian Thompson-RobinsonQB · Starter QB | 7.2 | −10.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 20/34, 157 yd, 2 INT · 9 car, 49 yd |
| Elijah MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.1 | −3.3 | 77% | 71% | 16% | 24% | 2/5, 21 yd |
| Jerry JeudyWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | −1.1 | 91% | 88% | 10% | 15% | 2/3, 20 yd |
| Mike GesickiTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.4 | +0.4 | 34% | 42% | 7% | 3% | 2/2, 14 yd |
| Pierre StrongRB | 2.9 | −0.9 | 20% | 21% | 6% | 0% | 2 car, 6 yd · 2/2, 3 yd |
| Drew SampleTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.2 | +1.2 | 88% | 78% | 4% | 1% | 1/1, 12 yd |
| Jordan AkinsTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | −1.2 | 47% | 50% | 6% | 7% | 1/2, 8 yd |
| Trayveon WilliamsRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Jermaine BurtonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Isaiah WilliamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jamari ThrashWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.3 | 27% | 31% | 3% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| James ProcheWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Mike WoodsWR | 0.0 | −5.3 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Jake BrowningQB | -0.1 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| D'Onta ForemanRB | -1.9 | −8.5 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
7 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(12:16) 68-M.Dunn and 59-W.Reid reported in as eligible. 27-D.Foreman right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 68-M.Dunn and 59-W.Reid reported in as eligible. 27-D.Foreman right guard to CIN 1 for no gain (50-S.Heyward, 24-V.Bell). FUMBLES (24-V.Bell), RECOVERED by CIN-24-V.Bell at CIN 1.
Q1 12:16 · Browns · 1st & goal at CIN 1 · gained nothing · -5.74 EP · −22.5% win probability
145 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 156 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 145 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 151. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
5 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was CIN moving 94 yards from the CIN 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
156 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
156 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Nobody in motion.
How the play was built
Three in the backfield, a man in motion.
Browns0
Bengals6Browns0Bengals7Browns0Bengals13Browns0Bengals14Browns0Bengals17Browns6Bengals17How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Browns6Bengals23Browns6Bengals24Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Browns at Bengals, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorian Thompson-Robinson | 20/34 | 157 | 0 | 2 | 5 | −17.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Ford | 11 | 92 | 8.4 | 1 | +3.8 |
| Dorian Thompson-Robinson | 9 | 49 | 5.4 | 0 | +2.2 |
| Pierre Strong | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Njoku | 8 | 10 | 66 | 0 | 32% | −2.6 |
| Jerome Ford | 5 | 5 | 39 | 0 | 16% | +2.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Hicks | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mohamoud Diabate | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Denzel Ward | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Grant Delpit |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 23/30 | 252 | 3 | 0 | 4 | +3.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Brown |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_16_CLE_CIN
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bengals closed -10 and covered, winning by 18.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 30 — under by 16.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| D'Onta Foreman | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | −5.0 |
| Elijah Moore | 2 | 5 | 21 | 0 | 16% | −2.0 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 10% | +0.8 |
| Jordan Akins | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 6% | −0.6 |
| Pierre Strong | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6% | −1.2 |
| Mike Woods | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10% | −4.3 |
| Jamari Thrash | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.9 |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Michael Hall | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin Bush | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Juan Thornhill | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Martin Emerson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hickman | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jowon Briggs | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 |
| 91 |
| 5.1 |
| 0 |
| +1.5 |
| Joe Burrow | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 | +1.3 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Jake Browning | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | −1.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 6 | 8 | 97 | 1 | 29% | +8.3 |
| Tee Higgins | 8 | 11 | 58 | 1 | 39% | −0.6 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 3 | 3 | 53 | 1 | 11% | +6.1 |
| Chase Brown | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 11% | +2.2 |
| Mike Gesicki | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 7% | −0.2 |
| Drew Sample | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 4% | +0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Battle | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Mike Hilton | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Akeem Davis-Gaither | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Joseph Ossai | 4 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| B.J. Hill | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Germaine Pratt | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Maema Njongmeta | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cam Taylor-Britt | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trey Hendrickson | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kris Jenkins | 2 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
