2024 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 22, 2024 · Paycor Stadium

Cleveland Browns

Cincinnati BengalsWinner

CIN -10 ✓U 46.5 ✓Bengals closed -10 and covered, winning by 18.

Cincinnati Bengals 24–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 12:16, CLE +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 12:16CLE 0 — CIN 0CLE ball · 1st & 1CIN 61%

(12:16) 68-M.Dunn and 59-W.Reid reported in as eligible. 27-D.Foreman right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 68-M.Dunn and 59-W.Reid

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 12:16CLE +15% win prob(12:16) 68-M.Dunn and 59-W.Reid reported in as eligible. 27-D.Foreman right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 68-M.Dunn and 59-W.Reid reported in as eligible. 27-D.Foreman right guard to CIN 1 for no gain (50-S.Heyward, 24-V.Bell). FUMBLES (24-V.Bell), RECOVERED by CIN-24-V.Bell at CIN 1.
Q1 · 14:54CIN +10% win prob(14:54) (Shotgun) 34-J.Ford right tackle to CIN 11 for 66 yards (29-C.Taylor-Britt).
Q1 · 13:39CIN +8% win prob(13:39) (Shotgun) 17-D.Thompson-Robinson right end to CIN 2 for 8 yards (27-J.Battle).
Q4 · 13:40CLE +7% win prob(13:40) (Shotgun) 17-D.Thompson-Robinson pass short left intended for 85-D.Njoku INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Battle (22-G.Stone) [22-G.Stone] at CIN -3. Touchback.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 7:18CIN Touchdown
(7:18) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 5-T.Higgins for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-D.Tomlinson]. (kick good)
Score after this play: CLE 0 — CIN 7
Q2 · 7:36CIN Touchdown
(7:36) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 80-A.Iosivas for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CLE 0 — CIN 14
Q2 · 0:03CIN Field goal
(:03) 3-C.York 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
Score after this play: CLE 0 — CIN 17
Q3 · 5:53CLE Touchdown
(5:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 34-J.Ford right tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: CLE 6 — CIN 17
Q4 · 1:49CIN Touchdown
(1:49) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 1-J.Chase for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CLE-95-M.Garrett, Defensive Offside, declined. (kick good)
Score after this play: CLE 6 — CIN 24

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Browns	Bengals
Offensive plays	63	55
Total yards	273	327 (edge)
Yards per play	4.3	5.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.28	0.11 (edge)
Success rate	35%	55% (edge)
Dropback rate	67%	65%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.37	0.12 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.11	0.10 (edge)
Third downs	3/12	4/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	15	20 (edge)
Sacks taken	5	4 (edge)
Turnovers	3	1 (edge)

Bengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.28.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

23/30, 252 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

3.1 expected points added · +18.1% completion over expected

Passing · CLE

Dorian Thompson-RobinsonQB

20/34, 157 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-17.8 expected points added · -3.5% completion over expected

Rushing · CLE

Jerome FordRB

11 att, 92 yds, 1 TD

3.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CIN

Chase BrownRB

18 att, 91 yds, 0 TD

1.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CIN

Ja'Marr ChaseWR

6/8 for 97 yds, 1 TD

29% of team targets · 8.3 expected points added

Receiving · CLE

David NjokuTE

8/10 for 66 yds, 0 TD

32% of team targets · -2.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CLE	CLE 23	6	76	2:48	Defensive touchdown
2	CIN	CIN 1	9	94	4:58	Touchdown +7
3	CLE	CLE 27	5	2	1:38	Punt
4	CIN	CIN 27	8	45	4:19	Missed field goal
5	CLE	CLE 37	4	-1	1:28	Punt
6	CIN	CIN 26	4	8	1:35	Punt
7	CLE	CLE 23	4	-6	1:40	Punt
8	CIN	50	10	50	4:02	Touchdown +7
9	CLE	CLE 19	7	15	3:41	Punt
10	CIN	CIN 32	8	32	3:51	Field goal +3
11	CIN	CIN 25	8	17	3:50	Punt
12	CLE	CLE 30	12	69	5:20	Touchdown +6
13	CIN	CIN 26	5	-6	1:36	Punt
14	CLE	CLE 36	12	61	5:42	Interception
15	CIN	CIN 20	4	9	2:12	Punt
16	CLE	CLE 15	6	26	3:00	Interception
17	CIN	CIN 33	7	42	3:53	Fumble
18	CLE	CLE 21	10	27	2:33	Turnover on downs
19	CIN	CLE 36	3	36	0:10	Touchdown +7
20	CLE	CLE 30	6	4	1:22	Turnover on downs
21	CIN	CLE 43	1	0	0:22	End of game

5 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bengals gained 94 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Dorian Thompson-Robinson	20/34	157	0	2	5	-17.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jerome Ford	11	92	8.4	1	3.8
Dorian Thompson-Robinson	9	49	5.4	0	2.2
Pierre Strong	2	6	3.0	0	-0.8
D'Onta Foreman	2	1	0.5	0	-5.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
David Njoku	8	10	66	32%	-2.6
Jerome Ford	5	5	39	16%	2.3
Elijah Moore	2	5	21	16%	-2.0
Jerry Jeudy	2	3	20	10%	0.8
Jordan Akins	1	2	8	6%	-0.6
Pierre Strong	2	2	3	6%	-1.2
Mike Woods	0	3	0	10%	-4.3
Jamari Thrash	0	1	0	3%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jordan Hicks	7	2	0.0	0
Mohamoud Diabate	5	1	0.0	0
Denzel Ward	5	0	0.0	0
Grant Delpit	2	3	1.0	0
Michael Hall	3	2	1.0	0
Devin Bush	2	2	0.0	2
Juan Thornhill	3	1	0.0	0
Martin Emerson	3	1	0.0	0
Ronnie Hickman	2	1	0.0	0
Jowon Briggs	1	1	0.0	0

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Burrow	23/30	252	3	0	4	3.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Chase Brown	18	91	5.1	1.5
Joe Burrow	2	19	9.5	1.3
Ja'Marr Chase	1	7	7.0	0.4
Jake Browning	1	-1	-1.0	-1.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Ja'Marr Chase	6	8	97	1	29%	8.3
Tee Higgins	8	11	58	1	39%	-0.6
Andrei Iosivas	3	3	53	1	11%	6.1
Chase Brown	3	3	18	0	11%	2.2
Mike Gesicki	2	2	14	0	7%	-0.2
Drew Sample	1	1	12	0	4%	0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jordan Battle	6	1	0.0	1	1
Mike Hilton	5	1	0.0	0	0
Akeem Davis-Gaither	4	1	0.0	0	1
Joseph Ossai	4	1	1.0	0	0
B.J. Hill	2	3	0.0	0	0
Germaine Pratt	4	0	0.0	0	0
Maema Njongmeta	2	2	0.0	0	0
Cam Taylor-Britt	3	0	0.0	0	0
Trey Hendrickson	2	1	1.0	0	0
Kris Jenkins	2	0	2.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CIN -10
Closing total: 46.5
CLE moneyline: +425
CIN moneyline: -575

Bengals closed -10 and covered, winning by 18.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 30 — under by 16.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Paycor Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 33°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Brad Rogers
Rest: CLE 7 days · CIN 7 days
Coaches: Kevin Stefanski vs Zac Taylor

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.