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2024 Week 16 · Thu, Dec 19, 2024 · SoFi Stadium

Denver Broncos

27

Los Angeles ChargersWinner

34

LAC -3 ✓O 41.5 ✓Dome

Los Angeles Chargers 34–27. Biggest swing: Q2 0:50, DEN +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3LAC ↑DEN ↓
Q2 · 0:50DEN 21 — LAC 10LAC ball · 1st & 10DEN 69%

(:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep middle intended for 5-J.Palmer INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Abrams-Draine at DEN 1. 31-K.Abrams-Draine ran ob at DEN 18 for 17 yards (15-L.McConkey).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 0:50DEN +13% win prob(:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep middle intended for 5-J.Palmer INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Abrams-Draine at DEN 1. 31-K.Abrams-Draine ran ob at DEN 18 for 17 yards (15-L.McConkey).
  2. Q4 · 2:36LAC +12% win prob(2:36) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 28-H.Haskins for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q4 · 7:26DEN +11% win prob(7:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 9 for -11 yards (41-D.Sanders).
  4. Q4 · 3:35LAC +10% win prob(3:35) 4-G.Edwards up the middle to DEN 31 for 43 yards (40-J.Strnad).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 7:37DEN Touchdown

    (7:37) 23-A.Estime right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 7 — LAC 0
  2. Q1 · 3:15LAC Touchdown

    (3:15) 62-S.Mustipher reported in as eligible. 4-G.Edwards right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 7 — LAC 7
  3. Q2 · 12:22DEN Touchdown

    (12:22) 79-M.Peart reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix pass short right to 20-M.Burton for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 14 — LAC 7
  4. Q2 · 8:53LAC Field goal

    (8:53) 11-C.Dicker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: DEN 14 — LAC 10
  5. Q2 · 6:26DEN Touchdown

    (6:26) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 17-D.Vele for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 21 — LAC 10
  6. Q2 · 0:00LAC Field goal

    (:00) 11-C.Dicker 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Holder-16-J.Scott. Fair-Catch Kick.

    Score after this play: DEN 21 — LAC 13
  7. Q3 · 8:34DEN Field goal

    (8:34) 3-W.Lutz 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    Score after this play: DEN 24 — LAC 13
  8. Q3 · 3:02LAC Touchdown

    (3:02) (Shotgun) 4-G.Edwards left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: DEN 24 — LAC 19
  9. Q4 · 12:29LAC Touchdown

    (12:29) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 12-D.Davis for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN [99-Z.Allen]. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: DEN 24 — LAC 27
  10. Q4 · 2:36LAC Touchdown

    (2:36) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 28-H.Haskins for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 24 — LAC 34
  11. Q4 · 1:02DEN Field goal

    (1:02) 3-W.Lutz 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    Score after this play: DEN 27 — LAC 34

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBroncosChargers
Offensive plays6360
Total yards355399 (edge)
Yards per play5.66.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.190.22 (edge)
Success rate44%52% (edge)
Dropback rate70%63%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.230.46 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.10 (edge)-0.20
Third downs5/136/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)48 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps2123 (edge)
Sacks taken22
Turnovers0 (edge)1

Chargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs 0.19.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

23/31, 284 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

12.3 expected points added · +7.4% completion over expected

Passing · DEN

Bo NixQB

29/40, 263 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

7.1 expected points added · -1.6% completion over expected

Rushing · LAC

Gus EdwardsRB

14 att, 68 yds, 2 TD

-0.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DEN

Audric EstimeRB

9 att, 48 yds, 1 TD

1.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LAC

Ladd McConkeyWR

6/6 for 87 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · 4.6 expected points added

Receiving · DEN

Marvin MimsWR

3/5 for 62 yds, 0 TD

13% of team targets · 2.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1LACLAC 30541:30Punt
2DENDEN 2811745:56Touchdown +7
3LACLAC 3010704:25Touchdown +7
4DENDEN 3014705:52Touchdown +7
5LACLAC 309513:27Field goal +3
6DENDEN 308752:28Touchdown +7
7LACLAC 30571:22Punt
8DENDEN 225192:26Punt
9LACLAC 257491:53Interception
10DENDEN 184-20:41Punt
11LACDEN 47100:00Field goal +3
12DENDEN 3012496:29Field goal +3
13LACLAC 3012645:33Touchdown +6
14DENDEN 30532:13Punt
15LACLAC 228603:22Touchdown +8
16DENDEN 308202:35Punt
17LACLAC 5743:07Punt
18DENDEN 45442:13Punt
19LACLAC 107902:01Touchdown +7
20DENDEN 308431:30Field goal +3
21LACDEN 46500:57Turnover on downs

11 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chargers gained 90 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Denver Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Bo Nix29/402632027.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Audric Estime9485.311.8
Bo Nix3258.302.2
Javonte Williams4246.001.4
Blake Watson4102.50-0.2
Marvin Mims133.00-0.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Marvin Mims3562013%2.2
Courtland Sutton5650015%4.0
Javonte Williams71129028%-3.4
Troy Franklin232508%1.2
Lucas Krull332108%1.5
Devaughn Vele232118%2.3
Michael Burton331918%2.6
Nate Adkins221805%0.6
Blake Watson121305%0.3
Adam Trautman11503%-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Brandon Jones630.001
Cody Barton520.000
P.J. Locke240.000
Justin Strnad310.000
Patrick Surtain310.000
Kris Abrams-Draine310.011
Zach Allen310.000
Ja'Quan McMillian210.000
Eyioma Uwazurike210.000
Nik Bonitto110.000

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Justin Herbert23/3128421212.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Gus Edwards14684.92-0.9
Justin Herbert8283.501.8
Kimani Vidal5244.80-0.8
Derius Davis1-3-3.00-2.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Ladd McConkey6687020%4.6
Josh Palmer3641020%-1.7
Hassan Haskins223917%4.3
Stone Smartt3337010%4.2
Derius Davis223117%2.8
Quentin Johnston3618020%-0.1
Scott Matlock111003%0.5
Tucker Fisk111003%1.1
Hayden Hurst11803%1.4
Gus Edwards12307%-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Daiyan Henley730.000
Tony Jefferson430.000
Kristian Fulton500.000
Derwin James410.000
Teair Tart310.000
Tarheeb Still300.001
Joey Bosa211.000
Ja'Sir Taylor200.000
Tuli Tuipulotu200.000
Junior Colson110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
LAC -3
Closing total
41.5
DEN moneyline
+124
LAC moneyline
-148

Chargers closed -3 and covered, winning by 7.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 61 — over by 19.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
DEN 4 days · LAC 4 days
Coaches
Sean Payton vs Jim Harbaugh

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.