For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:36 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 16 · Thu, Dec 19, 2024 · SoFi Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 16
It turned at Q2 0:50, 1st and 10, on Kris Abrams-Draine — 12.5 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:50 · 1st and 10
Kris Abrams-Draine
Broncos
(:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep middle intended for 5-J.Palmer INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Abrams-Draine at DEN 1. 31-K.Abrams-Draine ran ob at DEN 18 for 17 yards (15-L.McConkey).
Los Angeles Chargers 34–27. Biggest swing: Q2 0:50, Broncos +12.5% win probability on one snap.
12.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Chargers won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Broncos at 4 chunk plays.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Broncos owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Chargers at 3 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Broncosthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Broncos owned this one and still lost it — +0.10 expected points per carry, against Chargers at -0.20 expected points per carry.
Broncosthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Chargers won this one — 6 of 11 on third down, against Broncos at 5 of 13 on third down.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 3.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
(:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep middle intended for 5-J.Palmer INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Abrams-Draine at DEN 1. 31-K.Abrams-Draine ran ob at DEN 18 for 17 yards (15-L.McConkey).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Derius Davis's 19-yard touchdown catch with 12:29 left in the 4th put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Derius Davis19-yd TD catch19-yard touchdown catchfrom Justin Herbert · two-point goodLead never changed again+824–2711 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Broncoscategory by categoryChargers
Chargers ahead 6–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Broncos, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.46 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 63 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against Chargers’s 60 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 3, Chargers 5.
Chargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs 0.19.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LAC's play-action rate, 50.0%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 16 — 1.5 points clear of the next team along.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.3 points.
DEN's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 0.0% in week 15 against 66.7% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 33.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Broncos6.5 ptsinside their normal wobble · +6.2 vs their 0.3 pts, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+0.99× that swing) · 63 snaps
Chargers1.9 ptsinside their normal wobble · +3.6 vs their -1.6 pts, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.53× that swing) · 58 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 26% to 85%
Tendencies room →Broncos64.6%leaned — passed early · +8.8 vs their 55.8%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+1.16× that swing) · 48 early downs
Chargers60.9%right on their number · +5.6 vs their 55.2%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (+0.48× that swing) · 46 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 62%
Tendencies room →Broncos27.3%right on their number · +0.3 vs their 27.0%, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (+0.02× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Chargers50.0%leaned — faked the run · +19.3 vs their 30.7%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (+1.56× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -56% to 114%
Fourth Down room →Broncos66.7%leaned — went for it · +37.9 vs their 28.8%, and they swing ±33.3 week to week (+1.14× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Chargers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 17.9%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 73%
Tendencies room →Broncos26.3%right on their number · −7.6 vs their 33.9%, and they swing ±15.4 week to week (−0.49× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Chargers29.5%right on their number · +4.7 vs their 24.8%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (+0.46× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 38%
Tendencies room →Broncos21.1%right on their number · +1.7 vs their 19.4%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+0.23× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Chargers9.1%inside their normal wobble · −5.0 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−0.71× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
LAC's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 50.0%, 19.3 points above their season mean of 30.7% and 1.6 times their own 12.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Los Angeles Chargers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · LAC
23/31, 284 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
12.3 expected points added · +7.4% completion over expected
Passing · DEN
Bo NixQB
29/40, 263 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
7.1 expected points added · -1.6% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Hassan Haskins banked 8.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin HerbertQB · Starter QB | 22.2 | +6.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 23/31, 284 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 8 car, 28 yd |
| Bo NixQB · Starter QB | 21.0 | +1.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 29/40, 263 yd, 2 TD · 3 car, 25 yd |
| Gus EdwardsRB · Committee Back | 20.1 | +3.7 | 46% | 26% | 7% | 0% | 14 car, 68 yd, 2 TD · 1/2, 3 yd |
| Ladd McConkeyWR · Featured Receiver | 14.7 | +6.4 | 78% | 87% | 20% | 17% | 6/6, 87 yd |
| Javonte WilliamsRB · Committee Back | 12.3 | −6.9 | 52% | 64% | 28% | 0% | 4 car, 24 yd · 7/11, 29 yd |
| Hassan HaskinsRB | 11.9 | +8.9 | 20% | 32% | 7% | 1% | 2/2, 39 yd, 1 TD |
| Michael BurtonRB | 10.9 | +3.9 | 16% | 11% | 8% | 3% | 3/3, 19 yd, 1 TD |
| Audric EstimeRB | 10.8 | +4.3 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Derius DavisWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.8 | +6.8 | 12% | 11% | 7% | 6% | 1 car, -3 yd · 2/2, 31 yd, 1 TD |
| Devaughn VeleWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.1 | +3.5 | 56% | 55% | 8% | 15% | 2/3, 21 yd, 1 TD |
| Courtland SuttonWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.0 | +0.6 | 91% | 89% | 15% | 38% | 5/6, 50 yd |
| Marvin MimsWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.5 | −2.8 | 47% | 48% | 13% | 51% | 1 car, 3 yd · 3/5, 62 yd |
| Josh PalmerWR · Featured Receiver | 9.1 | −3.7 | 60% | 63% | 20% | 45% | 3/6, 41 yd |
| Stone SmarttTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.7 | +2.5 | 60% | 61% | 10% | 6% | 3/3, 37 yd |
| Lucas KrullTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.1 | +1.1 | 44% | 52% | 8% | 7% | 3/3, 21 yd |
| Quentin JohnstonWR · Featured Receiver | 4.8 | −2.8 | 68% | 74% | 20% | 11% | 3/6, 18 yd |
| Troy FranklinWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.5 | −0.1 | 41% | 43% | 8% | 21% | 2/3, 25 yd |
| Nate AdkinsTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.8 | +1.0 | 33% | 30% | 5% | 3% | 2/2, 18 yd |
| Blake WatsonRB | 3.3 | −0.8 | 16% | 11% | 5% | 0% | 4 car, 10 yd · 1/2, 13 yd |
| Kimani VidalRB | 2.4 | +0.2 | 32% | 32% | 0% | — | 5 car, 24 yd |
| Scott MatlockRB | 2.0 | +0.4 | 40% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 10 yd |
| Tucker FiskTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | +0.8 | 43% | 24% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 10 yd |
| Hayden HurstTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.3 | 12% | 11% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| Adam TrautmanTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | +0.1 | 44% | 32% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 5 yd |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(2:36) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 28-H.Haskins for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 2:36 · Chargers · 2nd & 13 at DEN 34 · gained 34 · +4.32 EP · +11.7% win probability
161 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 175 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 161 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 170. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
11 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 90 yards from the LAC 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Broncos6
Chargers0Broncos7Chargers0Broncos7Chargers6Broncos7Chargers7Broncos13Chargers7Broncos14Chargers7Broncos14Chargers10Broncos20Chargers10Broncos21Chargers10How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Broncos21Chargers13Broncos24Chargers13Broncos24Chargers19How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
Broncos24Chargers25Broncos24Chargers27How the play was built
A man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
Broncos24Chargers33Broncos24Chargers34Broncos27Chargers34Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Broncos at Chargers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 29/40 | 263 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +7.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Audric Estime | 9 | 48 | 5.3 | 1 | +1.8 |
| Bo Nix | 3 | 25 | 8.3 | 0 | +2.2 |
| Javonte Williams | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 | +1.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Mims | 3 | 5 | 62 | 0 | 13% | +2.2 |
| Courtland Sutton | 5 | 6 | 50 | 0 | 15% | +4.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jones | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cody Barton | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| P.J. Locke | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Strnad |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 23/31 | 284 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +12.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Edwards |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_16_DEN_LAC
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Chargers closed -3 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 61 — over by 19.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Blake Watson | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Marvin Mims | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Javonte Williams | 7 | 11 | 29 | 0 | 28% | −3.4 |
| Troy Franklin | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 8% | +1.2 |
| Lucas Krull | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 8% | +1.5 |
| Devaughn Vele | 2 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 8% | +2.3 |
| Michael Burton | 3 | 3 | 19 | 1 | 8% | +2.6 |
| Nate Adkins | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 5% | +0.6 |
| Blake Watson | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 5% | +0.3 |
| Adam Trautman | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | −0.2 |
| 3 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Patrick Surtain | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kris Abrams-Draine | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Zach Allen | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ja'Quan McMillian | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eyioma Uwazurike | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nik Bonitto | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 |
| 68 |
| 4.9 |
| 2 |
| −0.9 |
| Justin Herbert | 8 | 28 | 3.5 | 0 | +1.8 |
| Kimani Vidal | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Derius Davis | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 | −2.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladd McConkey | 6 | 6 | 87 | 0 | 20% | +4.6 |
| Josh Palmer | 3 | 6 | 41 | 0 | 20% | −1.7 |
| Hassan Haskins | 2 | 2 | 39 | 1 | 7% | +4.3 |
| Stone Smartt | 3 | 3 | 37 | 0 | 10% | +4.2 |
| Derius Davis | 2 | 2 | 31 | 1 | 7% | +2.8 |
| Quentin Johnston | 3 | 6 | 18 | 0 | 20% | −0.1 |
| Scott Matlock | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 3% | +0.5 |
| Tucker Fisk | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 3% | +1.1 |
| Hayden Hurst | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | +1.4 |
| Gus Edwards | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7% | −0.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daiyan Henley | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tony Jefferson | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kristian Fulton | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derwin James | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Teair Tart | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tarheeb Still | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Joey Bosa | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ja'Sir Taylor | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tuli Tuipulotu | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Junior Colson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
