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2024 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 22, 2024 · Soldier Field

Detroit LionsWinner

34

Chicago Bears

17

DET -7 ✓O 47.5 ✓29°F

Detroit Lions 34–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 8:31, DET +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3CHI ↑DET ↓
Q1 · 8:31DET 3 — CHI 0CHI ball · 2nd & 3DET 79%

(8:31) (No Huddle) 18-C.Williams FUMBLES (Aborted) at CHI 35, RECOVERED by DET-93-J.Paschal at CHI 36.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 8:31DET +9% win prob(8:31) (No Huddle) 18-C.Williams FUMBLES (Aborted) at CHI 35, RECOVERED by DET-93-J.Paschal at CHI 36.
  2. Q1 · 11:48CHI +6% win prob(11:48) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 14-A.St. Brown to CHI 19 for 28 yards (31-K.Byard).
  3. Q1 · 14:00CHI +3% win prob(14:00) 19-T.Taylor punts 49 yards to DET 24, Center-46-S.Daly. 85-T.Kennedy to DET 33 for 9 yards (46-S.Daly).
  4. Q1 · 14:08DET +3% win prob(14:08) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete deep right to 13-K.Allen [93-J.Paschal].

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 9:39DET Field goal

    (9:39) 39-J.Bates 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

    Score after this play: DET 3 — CHI 0
  2. Q1 · 5:37DET Touchdown

    (5:37) 26-J.Gibbs left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 10 — CHI 0
  3. Q1 · 0:06DET Field goal

    (:06) 39-J.Bates 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

    Score after this play: DET 13 — CHI 0
  4. Q2 · 12:59DET Touchdown

    (12:59) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 9-Ja.Williams for 82 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 20 — CHI 0
  5. Q2 · 6:35CHI Touchdown

    (6:35) 63-C.Glaser reported in as eligible. 18-C.Williams pass short left to 85-C.Kmet for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 20 — CHI 7
  6. Q2 · 1:04DET Touchdown

    (1:04) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 27 — CHI 7
  7. Q2 · 0:46CHI Touchdown

    (:46) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep right to 13-K.Allen for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 27 — CHI 14
  8. Q3 · 12:24DET Touchdown

    (12:24) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 87-S.LaPorta for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 34 — CHI 14
  9. Q3 · 6:07CHI Field goal

    (6:07) 8-C.Santos 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

    Score after this play: DET 34 — CHI 17

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricLionsBears
Offensive plays6459
Total yards476 (edge)382
Yards per play7.4 (edge)6.5
Expected points added / play0.32 (edge)0.01
Success rate56% (edge)42%
Dropback rate52%78%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.47 (edge)0.27
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.17 (edge)-0.90
Third downs7/12 (edge)2/10
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)9 (edge)7
First downs gained on snaps25 (edge)18
Sacks taken1 (edge)2
Turnovers0 (edge)2

Lions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.32 expected points added per play vs 0.01.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DET

Jared GoffQB

23/32, 336 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

15.5 expected points added · +1.9% completion over expected

Passing · CHI

Caleb WilliamsQB

26/40, 334 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

16.5 expected points added · +5.8% completion over expected

Rushing · DET

Jahmyr GibbsRB

23 att, 109 yds, 1 TD

5.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CHI

Caleb WilliamsQB

6 att, 34 yds, 0 TD

-5.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DET

Jameson WilliamsWR

5/7 for 143 yds, 1 TD

22% of team targets · 7.7 expected points added

Receiving · CHI

Keenan AllenWR

9/13 for 141 yds, 1 TD

35% of team targets · 9.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CHICHI 26511:11Punt
2DETDET 339704:14Field goal +3
3CHICHI 31321:08Fumble
4DETCHI 368362:53Touchdown +7
5CHICHI 295412:06Fumble
6DETDET 407443:26Field goal +3
7CHICHI 306311:30Punt
8DETDET 73930:43Touchdown +7
9CHICHI 3016806:18Touchdown +7
10DETDET 3013655:33Touchdown +7
11CHICHI 305700:19Touchdown +7
12DETDET 347240:39Missed field goal
13DETDET 217642:42Touchdown +7
14CHICHI 3011636:15Field goal +3
15DETDET 4012476:12Turnover on downs
16CHICHI 1311606:38Punt
17DETDET 127202:37Punt
18CHICHI 3510343:06Turnover on downs
19DETDET 114132:30End of game

9 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Lions gained 93 scrimmage yards over 3 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Detroit Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jared Goff23/3233630115.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jahmyr Gibbs231094.715.2
Craig Reynolds4184.50-0.1
Jermar Jefferson3134.30-0.4
Jameson Williams177.000.4
Jared Goff1-1-1.000.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jameson Williams57143122%7.7
Amon-Ra St. Brown6870125%4.1
Jahmyr Gibbs4545016%2.1
Sam LaPorta4743122%1.2
Sione Vaki222006%0.6
Jermar Jefferson111003%0.5
Craig Reynolds11503%1.4
Tim Patrick01003%-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Brian Branch820.001
Amik Robertson530.002
Jack Campbell330.001
Terrion Arnold410.001
Ifeatu Melifonwu221.000
Ben Niemann220.000
Levi Onwuzurike300.000
Pat O'Connor210.000
Kerby Joseph110.000
Al-Quadin Muhammad201.000

Chicago Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Caleb Williams26/4033420216.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Caleb Williams6345.70-5.8
D'Andre Swift9202.20-3.3
Roschon Johnson133.00-0.9
D.J. Moore122.00-0.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Keenan Allen913141135%9.8
Rome Odunze4777019%2.7
D.J. Moore71068027%-0.4
D'Andre Swift333308%0.8
Cole Kmet22915%2.0
Gerald Everett11603%2.3
Collin Johnson01003%-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
T.J. Edwards430.000
Kevin Byard430.000
Jonathan Owens510.000
Tremaine Edmunds150.001
Tyrique Stevenson330.000
Montez Sweat220.000
Zacch Pickens221.000
Jaylon Johnson210.000
Elijah Hicks210.000
Jack Sanborn210.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
DET -7
Closing total
47.5
DET moneyline
-340
CHI moneyline
+270

Lions closed -7 and covered, winning by 17.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 51 — over by 3.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Soldier Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
29°F, wind 7 mph
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
DET 7 days · CHI 6 days
Coaches
Dan Campbell vs Matt Eberflus

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.