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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
2 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so those portraits are withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 32 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bearshigher on Lions164 of 173 plays carry both curves
(8:31) (No Huddle) 18-C.Williams FUMBLES (Aborted) at CHI 35, RECOVERED by DET-93-J.Paschal at CHI 36.
Swing −9.2 for BearsExpected points −5.62 for BearsThe model had Bears 25 points higher than the market did.play 19
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 8:31DET +9% win prob(8:31) (No Huddle) 18-C.Williams FUMBLES (Aborted) at CHI 35, RECOVERED by DET-93-J.Paschal at CHI 36.
1st · 11:48CHI +6% win prob(11:48) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 14-A.St. Brown to CHI 19 for 28 yards (31-K.Byard).
1st · 14:00CHI +3% win prob(14:00) 19-T.Taylor punts 49 yards to DET 24, Center-46-S.Daly. 85-T.Kennedy to DET 33 for 9 yards (46-S.Daly).
1st · 14:08DET +3% win prob(14:08) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete deep right to 13-K.Allen [93-J.Paschal].
1st · 3:41DET +3% win prob(3:41) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 15-R.Odunze to DET 40 for 19 yards (50-M.Agude; 32-B.Branch). FUMBLES (50-M.Agude), RECOVERED by DET-51-B.Niemann at DET 40.
1st · 14:55DET +3% win prob(14:55) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short left to 13-K.Allen.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jake Bates's 30-yard field goal with 9:39 left in the 1st put Detroit Lions ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:39Jake Bates·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap H.HattenLead never changed again+33–0
3rd12:24Sam LaPorta·21-yd TD catch21-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+734–14
3rd6:07Cairo Santos·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder T.Taylor · snap S.Daly+334–17
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Lionscategory by categoryBears
Lions9–0Bears
476Total yards382
7.4Yards per play6.5
56%Success rate42%
58%Third-down rate20%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
9Explosive plays7
25First downs18
1Sacks taken2
0Turnovers2
The read
Lions ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.90 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.32Lions: +0.32 expected points added per play
+0.01Bears: +0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.47Lions: +0.47 expected points added per play
+0.27Bears: +0.27 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.17Lions: +0.17 expected points added per play
−0.90Bears: −0.90 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 64 snaps at a 52% dropback rate against Bears’s 59 at 78%. Red-zone trips: Lions 7, Bears 4.
NoteLions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.32 expected points added per play vs 0.01.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 16Against their seasonFourth Down
CHI's fourth-and-short go rate, 100.0%, is past their previous high of 83.3% in week 3 — the highest of their 10 charted games through week 16.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 25.8 points.
CHI's early-down pass rate turned over: 51.1% in week 15 against 73.3% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
45 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.1 points.
CHI's pass rate over expected turned over: −7.7 pts in week 15 against +4.9 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
59 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.4 points.
DET's play-action rate turned over: 16.1% in week 15 against 48.5% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.1 points.
DET's early-down pass rate turned over: 79.7% in week 15 against 47.1% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 3.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
51 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 12 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.7 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.72× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Bears9.1%
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.2 vs their 17.3%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (−1.43× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
NoteCHI's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 100.0%, 42.3 points above their season mean of 57.7% and 1.6 times their own 25.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bears attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Lions←Bears→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Williams FUMBLES−13% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(8:31) (No Huddle) 18-C.Williams FUMBLES (Aborted) at CHI 35, RECOVERED by DET-93-J.Paschal at CHI 36.
Q1 8:31 · Bears · 2nd & 3 at CHI 38 · gained nothing · -5.62 EP · −13.2% win probability
162 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 162 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 168. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 93 yards from the DET 7 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CHI attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
+0.13
Success rate
50%
Yards
857
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44+0.0977%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36+0.1964%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR22+0.5636%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.1956%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6+0.2833%
Bears1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR4——
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 26 to the Bears 27
Lions3Bears0
Field goal9 plays, from the Lions 33 to the Bears 12
How the play was built
A trick play, no huddle, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Bears 31 to the Bears 38
Lions9Bears0
Lions10Bears0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bears 36 to the Bears 1
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Bears 29 to the Bears 41
Lions13Bears0
Field goal7 plays, from the Lions 40 to the Bears 16
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter59 plays
Punt5 plays
Lions19Bears0
Lions20Bears0
Touchdown3 plays, from the Lions 7 to the Lions 18
Lions20Bears6
Lions20Bears7
Touchdown18 plays, from the Bears 30 to the Lions 1
Lions26Bears7
Lions27Bears7
Touchdown15 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Bears 6
Lions27Bears13
Lions27Bears14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Bears 30 to the Lions 45
No good11 plays, from the Lions 34 to the Bears 42
3rd quarter30 plays
Lions33Bears14
Lions34Bears14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Lions 21 to the Bears 21
Lions34Bears17
Field goal12 plays, from the Bears 30 to the Lions 12
The period ended11 plays, from the Lions 40 to the Bears 16
4th quarter42 plays
Turnover on downs2 plays
Punt15 plays, from the Bears 13 to the Lions 22
Punt9 plays, from the Lions 12 to the Lions 27
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Bears 35 to the Lions 11
The period ended5 plays, from the Lions 11 to the Lions 24
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Lions -7
Closing total
47.5
Lions moneyline
-340
Bears moneyline
+270
Lions closed -7 and covered, winning by 17.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 51 — over by 3.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Soldier Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Freezing, 26°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 8 mph out of the south; overcast.
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
Lions 7 days · Bears 6 days
Coaches
Dan Campbell vs Matt Eberflus
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
1st · 9:44
DET +3% win prob
(9:44) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 87-S.LaPorta.
1st · 7:02CHI +2% win prob(7:02) (Shotgun) 26-J.Gibbs right tackle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 26-J.Gibbs right tackle to CHI 1 for 8 yards (49-T.Edmunds; 31-K.Byard).
