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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 22, 2024 · Soldier Field
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 16
It turned at Q1 8:31, 2nd and 3 — 9.2 win-probability points to the Lions on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Detroit Lions 34–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 8:31, Lions +9.2% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 8:31 · 2nd and 3
Unnamed on the sheet
Lions
(8:31) (No Huddle) 18-C.Williams FUMBLES (Aborted) at CHI 35, RECOVERED by DET-93-J.Paschal at CHI 36.
9.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Lions won this one — +0.17 expected points per carry, against Bears at -0.90 expected points per carry.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Lions won this one — 7 of 12 on third down, against Bears at 2 of 10 on third down.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Lions won this one — 56% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bears at 42% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Lions won this one — no giveaways, against Bears at 2 giveaways.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 8.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 32 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
(8:31) (No Huddle) 18-C.Williams FUMBLES (Aborted) at CHI 35, RECOVERED by DET-93-J.Paschal at CHI 36.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jake Bates's 30-yard field goal with 9:39 left in the 1st put Detroit Lions ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Jake Bates30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap H.HattenLead never changed again+33–09 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Lionscategory by categoryBears
Lions ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.90 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 64 snaps at a 52% dropback rate against Bears’s 59 at 78%. Red-zone trips: Lions 7, Bears 4.
Lions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.32 expected points added per play vs 0.01.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CHI's fourth-and-short go rate, 100.0%, is past their previous high of 83.3% in week 3 — the highest of their 10 charted games through week 16.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 25.8 points. · +1.6σ from their own normal
CHI's early-down pass rate turned over: 51.1% in week 15 against 73.3% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
45 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.1 points. · +1.5σ from their own normal
CHI's pass rate over expected turned over: −7.7 pts in week 15 against +4.9 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
59 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.4 points. · +1.4σ from their own normal
DET's play-action rate turned over: 16.1% in week 15 against 48.5% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.1 points. · +1.1σ from their own normal
DET's early-down pass rate turned over: 79.7% in week 15 against 47.1% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 3.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
51 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.4 points. · −0.2σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 12 pts
Over Expected room →Lions-0.8 ptsinside their normal wobble · +2.9 vs their -3.7 pts, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+0.51× that swing) · 64 snaps
Bears4.9 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +7.3 vs their -2.5 pts, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (+1.35× that swing) · 59 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 22% to 85%
Tendencies room →Lions47.1%right on their number · −1.8 vs their 48.9%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (−0.18× that swing) · 51 early downs
Bears73.3%leaned — passed early · +15.3 vs their 58.0%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (+1.52× that swing) · 45 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 1% to 65%
Tendencies room →Lions48.5%leaned — faked the run · +12.0 vs their 36.5%, and they swing ±11.1 week to week (+1.08× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Bears19.6%right on their number · +1.2 vs their 18.3%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (+0.21× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -37% to 164%
Fourth Down room →Lions—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 63.3%.
Bears100.0%leaned — went for it · +42.3 vs their 57.7%, and they swing ±25.8 week to week (+1.64× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 1% to 67%
Tendencies room →Lions39.1%right on their number · +3.2 vs their 35.9%, and they swing ±12.1 week to week (+0.27× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Bears21.2%inside their normal wobble · −4.7 vs their 25.9%, and they swing ±9.3 week to week (−0.51× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 32%
Tendencies room →Lions10.9%inside their normal wobble · −4.7 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.72× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Bears9.1%leaned — stayed blocked · −8.2 vs their 17.3%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (−1.43× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
CHI's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 100.0%, 42.3 points above their season mean of 57.7% and 1.6 times their own 25.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Detroit Lions
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Chicago Bears
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · DET
23/32, 336 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
15.5 expected points added · +1.9% completion over expected
Passing · CHI
26/40, 334 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
16.5 expected points added · +5.8% completion over expected
Receiving · DET
5/7 for 143 yds, 1 TD
22% of team targets · 7.7 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Jameson Williams banked 13.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan AllenWR · Alpha Receiver | 29.1 | +8.6 | 92% | 93% | 35% | 37% | 9/13, 141 yd, 1 TD |
| Jameson WilliamsWR · Featured Receiver | 26.0 | +13.5 | 83% | 94% | 22% | 47% | 1 car, 7 yd · 5/7, 143 yd, 1 TD |
| Jahmyr GibbsRB · Bell Cow Back | 25.4 | −8.0 | 69% | 64% | 16% | 0% | 23 car, 109 yd, 1 TD · 4/5, 45 yd |
| Jared GoffQB · Starter QB | 25.3 | +9.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 23/32, 336 yd, 3 TD · 1 car, -1 yd |
| Caleb WilliamsQB · Starter QB | 22.8 | +0.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 26/40, 334 yd, 2 TD · 6 car, 34 yd |
| Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · Alpha Receiver | 19.0 | +2.6 | 85% | 94% | 25% | 29% | 6/8, 70 yd, 1 TD |
| Sam LaPortaTE · Featured Receiver | 14.3 | +1.6 | 92% | 91% | 22% | 19% | 4/7, 43 yd, 1 TD |
| D.J. MooreWR · Alpha Receiver | 14.0 | −4.3 | 95% | 96% | 27% | 32% | 1 car, 2 yd · 7/10, 68 yd |
| Rome OdunzeWR · Featured Receiver | 9.7 | −2.6 | 83% | 85% | 19% | 28% | 4/7, 77 yd |
| Cole KmetTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.9 | +3.7 | 89% | 93% | 5% | 2% | 2/2, 9 yd, 1 TD |
| D'Andre SwiftRB · Committee Back | 8.3 | −2.1 | 73% | 72% | 8% | 0% | 9 car, 20 yd · 3/3, 33 yd |
| Sione VakiRB | 4.0 | +0.7 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Craig ReynoldsRB | 3.3 | −1.8 | 15% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 4 car, 18 yd · 1/1, 5 yd |
| Jermar JeffersonRB | 3.3 | +0.3 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Gerald EverettTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | +0.3 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Roschon JohnsonRB | 0.3 | −0.4 | 27% | 28% | 0% | — | 1 car, 3 yd |
| Tyler ScottWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Collin JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.9 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Tim PatrickWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.0 | 65% | 73% | 3% | 12% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Tom KennedyWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bears attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(8:31) (No Huddle) 18-C.Williams FUMBLES (Aborted) at CHI 35, RECOVERED by DET-93-J.Paschal at CHI 36.
Q1 8:31 · Bears · 2nd & 3 at CHI 38 · gained nothing · -5.62 EP · −13.2% win probability
162 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 173 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 162 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 168. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 93 yards from the DET 7 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CHI attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Lions3
Bears0How the play was built
A trick play, no huddle, a man in motion.
Lions9Bears0Lions10Bears0Lions13Bears0Lions19Bears0Lions20Bears0Lions20Bears6Lions20Bears7Lions26Bears7Lions27Bears7Lions27Bears13Lions27Bears14Lions33Bears14Lions34Bears14Lions34Bears17Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Lions at Bears, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 23/32 | 336 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +15.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 23 | 109 | 4.7 | 1 | +5.2 |
| Craig Reynolds | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Jermar Jefferson |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameson Williams | 5 | 7 | 143 | 1 | 22% | +7.7 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 6 | 8 | 70 | 1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Branch | 8 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Amik Robertson | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jack Campbell |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | 26/40 | 334 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +16.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_16_DET_CHI
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Lions closed -7 and covered, winning by 17.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 51 — over by 3.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 3 |
| 13 |
| 4.3 |
| 0 |
| −0.4 |
| Jameson Williams | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Jared Goff | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| 25% |
| +4.1 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 4 | 5 | 45 | 0 | 16% | +2.1 |
| Sam LaPorta | 4 | 7 | 43 | 1 | 22% | +1.2 |
| Sione Vaki | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 6% | +0.6 |
| Jermar Jefferson | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 3% | +0.5 |
| Craig Reynolds | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | +1.4 |
| Tim Patrick | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.2 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Terrion Arnold | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ifeatu Melifonwu | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ben Niemann | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Levi Onwuzurike | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pat O'Connor | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kerby Joseph | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Al-Quadin Muhammad | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Caleb Williams | 6 | 34 | 5.7 | 0 | −5.8 |
| D'Andre Swift | 9 | 20 | 2.2 | 0 | −3.3 |
| Roschon Johnson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.9 |
| D.J. Moore | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 9 | 13 | 141 | 1 | 35% | +9.8 |
| Rome Odunze | 4 | 7 | 77 | 0 | 19% | +2.7 |
| D.J. Moore | 7 | 10 | 68 | 0 | 27% | −0.4 |
| D'Andre Swift | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 | 8% | +0.8 |
| Cole Kmet | 2 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 5% | +2.0 |
| Gerald Everett | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | +2.3 |
| Collin Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Edwards | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Byard | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Owens | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tremaine Edmunds | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tyrique Stevenson | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Montez Sweat | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zacch Pickens | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylon Johnson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elijah Hicks | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Sanborn | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
