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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:36 AM ET · 16 to play
2024 Week 16 · Sat, Dec 21, 2024 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Final
TexansHouston19
BY 8final margin
ChiefsKansas City27
Houston Texans 19 at Kansas City Chiefs 27. Final.
Chiefs -3.5 ✓O 42.5 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 16
Kansas City Chiefs 27, Texans 19 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 11:48, 2nd and 7, on Tank Dell — 12.5 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 11:48 · 2nd and 7
Tank Dell
Texans
(11:48) 7-C.Stroud pass deep left to 3-T.Dell for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU-3-T.Dell was injured during the play.
29°F
Chiefs closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 8.
Kansas City Chiefs 27–19. Biggest swing: Q3 11:48, Texans +12.5% win probability on one snap.
12.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Tank DellTexansQ2 12:30(12:30) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 3-T.Dell to KC 23 for 16 yards (20-J.Reid). HOU-57-B.Fisher was injured during the play.
8.7pts
Dalton SchultzTexansQ2 10:16(10:16) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 86-D.Schultz for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN [56-G.Karlaftis].
12.4pts
What separated them
Red zone
Chiefs won this one — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Texans at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Chiefs won this one — 47% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Texans at 38% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Texans owned this one and still lost it — 8 chunk plays, against Chiefs at 5 chunk plays.
Texansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Chiefs won this one — 1 giveaway, against Texans at 2 giveaways.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chiefshigher on Texans161 of 172 plays carry both curves
(11:48) 7-C.Stroud pass deep left to 3-T.Dell for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU-3-T.Dell was injured during the play.
Swing −12.5 for ChiefsExpected points −3.70 for ChiefsThe model had Texans 5 points higher than the market did.play 102
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 11:48KC +13% win prob(11:48) 7-C.Stroud pass deep left to 3-T.Dell for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU-3-T.Dell was injured during the play.
2nd · 10:16KC +12% win prob(10:16) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 86-D.Schultz for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN [56-G.Karlaftis].
2nd · 12:30KC +9% win prob(12:30) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 3-T.Dell to KC 23 for 16 yards (20-J.Reid). HOU-57-B.Fisher was injured during the play.
2nd · 6:30KC +9% win prob(6:30) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce to HOU 18 for 14 yards (23-E.Murray).
3rd · 9:57HOU +8% win prob(9:57) (Shotgun) 10-I.Pacheco up the middle to KC 49 for no gain (97-M.Edwards).
3rd · 1:27KC +8% win prob(1:27) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 86-D.Schultz to KC 36 for 24 yards (6-B.Cook) [95-C.Jones].
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Kareem Hunt's 3-yard rushing touchdown with 4:42 left in the 2nd put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
3rd2:46Xavier Worthy·8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+716–24
4th11:56Ka'imi Fairbairn·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Weeks+319–24
4th5:22Harrison Butker·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder M.Araiza · snap J.Winchester+319–27
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Texanscategory by categoryChiefs
Texans1–7Chiefs
311Total yards377
5.4Yards per play5.5
38%Success rate47%
54%Third-down rate54%
1Red-zone touchdowns3
8Explosive plays5
20First downs22
2Sacks taken1
2Turnovers1
The read
Chiefs ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.09Texans: +0.09 expected points added per play
+0.15Chiefs: +0.15 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.15Texans: +0.15 expected points added per play
+0.29Chiefs: +0.29 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.06Texans: −0.06 expected points added per play
−0.14Chiefs: −0.14 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 58 snaps at a 74% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 68 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Texans 4, Chiefs 5.
NoteChiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.15 expected points added per play vs 0.09.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
KC's sack or hit rate, 27.9%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 16 — 4.1 points clear of the next team along.
43 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.8 points.
KC's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 16.7% in week 15 against 66.7% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 24.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 22 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.0 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−1.08× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Chiefs27.9%
leaned — got home · +10.1 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (+1.03× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
NoteHOU's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 71.1%, 15.1 points above their season mean of 56.1% and 1.5 times their own 9.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Houston Texans
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
71Tytus HowardT · Every snap100%59 snaps
54Jarrett PattersonC · Every snap100%59 snaps
78Laremy TunsilT · Every snap100%59 snaps
7C.J. StroudQB · Every snap100%59 snaps
57Blake FisherT · Full-time97%57 snaps
53Kendrick GreenC · Full-time93%55 snaps
12Nico CollinsWR · Full-time85%50 snaps
86Dalton SchultzTE · Full-time81%48 snaps
28Joe MixonRB · Heavy rotation66%39 snaps
19Xavier HutchinsonWR · Heavy rotation58%34 snaps
2Robert WoodsWR · Heavy rotation58%34 snaps
3Tank DellWR · Heavy rotation51%30 snaps
83Irv SmithTE · Rotational31%18 snaps
33Dare OgunbowaleRB · Rotational27%16 snaps
47Andrew BeckFB · Situational20%12 snaps
14Jared WayneWR · Situational14%8 snaps
31Dameon PierceRB · Situational7%4 snaps
—Zachary ThomasT · Situational7%4 snaps
69Shaq MasonG · Situational7%4 snaps
Inactive · 7
Juice ScruggsCJerry HughesDEFoley FatukasiDTNick BroekerGDevin WhiteILBCade StoverTEJohn Metchie IIIWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Davis MillsQBZach ThomasT
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
52Creed HumphreyC · Every snap100%74 snaps
65Trey SmithG · Every snap100%74 snaps
66Mike CaliendoG · Every snap100%74 snaps
62Joe ThuneyG · Every snap100%74 snaps
15Patrick MahomesQB · Every snap100%74 snaps
87Travis KelceTE · Full-time88%65 snaps
1Xavier WorthyWR · Full-time80%59 snaps
74Jawaan TaylorT · Heavy rotation73%54 snaps
84Justin WatsonWR · Heavy rotation53%39 snaps
83Noah GrayTE · Rotational49%36 snaps
8DeAndre HopkinsWR · Rotational49%36 snaps
29Kareem HuntRB · Rotational43%32 snaps
9JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Rotational36%27 snaps
10Isiah PachecoRB · Rotational35%26 snaps
64Wanya MorrisT · Rotational27%20 snaps
5Marquise BrownWR · Rotational27%20 snaps
34Samaje PerineRB · Situational19%14 snaps
85Anthony FirkserTE · Situational11%8 snaps
42Carson SteeleRB · Situational8%6 snaps
81Nikko RemigioWR · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Malik HerringDEMarlon TuipulotuDTChamarri ConnerFSC.J. HansonGJoshua UcheOLBD.J. HumphriesTEthan DriskellT
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Texans←Chiefs→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Stroud pass+12% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(12:30) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 3-T.Dell to KC 23 for 16 yards (20-J.Reid). HOU-57-B.Fisher was injured during the play.
Q2 12:30 · Texans · 3rd & 13 at KC 39 · gained 16 · +3.06 EP · +12.3% win probability
159 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 172 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 159 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 167. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was HOU moving 82 yards from the HOU 18 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
172 of 172 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
172
EPA per play
+0.08
Success rate
45%
Yards
686
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39+0.0579%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39+0.0064%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20+0.3265%
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10+0.4940%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.1686%
Chiefs2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Chiefs0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Intercepted6 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Texans 45
Texans0Chiefs6
Texans0Chiefs7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Chiefs 34 to the Texans 15
Texans3Chiefs7
Field goal8 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Chiefs 11
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 36 to the Chiefs 41
The period ended4 plays, from the Texans 18 to the Texans 22
2nd quarter53 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Texans9Chiefs7
Texans10Chiefs7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Chiefs 48 to the Chiefs 10
Texans10Chiefs13
Texans10Chiefs14
Touchdown18 plays, from the Chiefs 18 to the Texans 3
Intercepted11 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Chiefs 30
Texans10Chiefs17
Field goal7 plays, from the Chiefs 35 to the Texans 24
The period ended6 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Chiefs 47
3rd quarter43 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Chiefs 10 to the Chiefs 21
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.4 seconds
Texans16Chiefs17
Touchdown6 plays, from midfield to the Chiefs 30
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Chiefs 40 to the Chiefs 49
Punt4 plays, from the Chiefs 49 to the Chiefs 47
Texans16Chiefs23
Texans16Chiefs24
Touchdown11 plays, from the Chiefs 20 to the Texans 8
The period ended10 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Chiefs 34
4th quarter39 plays
Texans19Chiefs24
Field goal8 plays, from the Chiefs 27 to the Chiefs 10
Texans19Chiefs27
Field goal16 plays, from the Chiefs 31 to the Texans 9
Punt5 plays
The period ended10 plays, from the Chiefs 39 to the Texans 13
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
