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2024 Week 16 · Sat, Dec 21, 2024 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Houston Texans

19

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

27

KC -3.5 ✓O 42.5 ✓30°F

Kansas City Chiefs 27–19. Biggest swing: Q3 11:48, KC +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3KC ↑HOU ↓
Q3 · 11:48HOU 16 — KC 17HOU ball · 2nd & 7KC 74%

(11:48) 7-C.Stroud pass deep left to 3-T.Dell for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU-3-T.Dell was injured during the play.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q3 · 11:48KC +13% win prob(11:48) 7-C.Stroud pass deep left to 3-T.Dell for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU-3-T.Dell was injured during the play.
  2. Q2 · 10:16KC +12% win prob(10:16) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 86-D.Schultz for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN [56-G.Karlaftis].
  3. Q2 · 12:30KC +9% win prob(12:30) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 3-T.Dell to KC 23 for 16 yards (20-J.Reid). HOU-57-B.Fisher was injured during the play.
  4. Q2 · 6:30KC +9% win prob(6:30) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce to HOU 18 for 14 yards (23-E.Murray).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 6:39KC Touchdown

    (6:39) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles up the middle for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 0 — KC 7
  2. Q1 · 3:12HOU Field goal

    (3:12) 15-K.Fairbairn 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: HOU 3 — KC 7
  3. Q2 · 10:16HOU Touchdown

    (10:16) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 86-D.Schultz for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN [56-G.Karlaftis]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 10 — KC 7
  4. Q2 · 4:42KC Touchdown

    (4:42) 29-K.Hunt right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 10 — KC 14
  5. Q2 · 0:24KC Field goal

    (:24) 7-H.Butker 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

    Score after this play: HOU 10 — KC 17
  6. Q3 · 11:48HOU Touchdown

    (11:48) 7-C.Stroud pass deep left to 3-T.Dell for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU-3-T.Dell was injured during the play.

    Score after this play: HOU 16 — KC 17
  7. Q3 · 2:46KC Touchdown

    (2:46) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 1-X.Worthy for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 16 — KC 24
  8. Q4 · 11:56HOU Field goal

    (11:56) 15-K.Fairbairn 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: HOU 19 — KC 24
  9. Q4 · 5:22KC Field goal

    (5:22) 7-H.Butker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

    Score after this play: HOU 19 — KC 27

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricTexansChiefs
Offensive plays5868
Total yards311377 (edge)
Yards per play5.45.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.090.15 (edge)
Success rate38%47% (edge)
Dropback rate74%66%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.150.29 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.06 (edge)-0.14
Third downs7/137/13
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)8 (edge)5
First downs gained on snaps2022 (edge)
Sacks taken21 (edge)
Turnovers21 (edge)

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.15 expected points added per play vs 0.09.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

28/41, 260 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

9.5 expected points added · +0.4% completion over expected

Passing · HOU

C.J. StroudQB

23/39, 244 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

6.0 expected points added · +0.9% completion over expected

Rushing · HOU

Joe MixonRB

14 att, 57 yds, 0 TD

-0.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · KC

Kareem HuntRB

11 att, 55 yds, 1 TD

3.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · HOU

Tank DellWR

6/7 for 98 yds, 1 TD

19% of team targets · 10.4 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Xavier WorthyWR

7/11 for 65 yds, 1 TD

27% of team targets · 1.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1HOUHOU 306132:03Interception
2KCKC 3412766:26Touchdown +7
3HOUHOU 308553:23Field goal +3
4KCKC 365-31:54Punt
5HOUHOU 1814826:05Touchdown +7
6KCKC 1815625:31Touchdown +7
7HOUHOU 309403:46Interception
8KCKC 355340:33Field goal +3
9HOUHOU 304230:19End of half
10KCKC 107111:44Punt
11HOU505501:36Touchdown +6
12KCKC 40591:46Turnover on downs
13HOUKC 49411:28Punt
14KCKC 2011805:44Touchdown +7
15HOUHOU 3015605:51Field goal +3
16KCKC 3115606:33Field goal +3
17HOUHOU 265-131:37Punt
18KCKC 397483:41End of game

9 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 82 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Houston Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
C.J. Stroud23/392442226.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Joe Mixon14574.10-0.6
C.J. Stroud22311.500.3
Dameon Pierce144.00-0.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Tank Dell6798119%10.4
Nico Collins71060027%-2.5
Dalton Schultz5845122%2.2
Robert Woods3619016%-1.6
Joe Mixon121405%0.3
Xavier Hutchinson11803%1.8
Dare Ogunbowale02005%-0.7
Andrew Beck01003%-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Henry To'oTo'o550.000
Eric Murray820.000
Christian Harris521.000
Calen Bullock320.000
Derek Stingley310.001
Kamari Lassiter220.002
Mario Edwards130.000
Tim Settle120.000
Jimmie Ward120.000
Neville Hewitt210.000

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Patrick Mahomes28/412601019.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Kareem Hunt11555.013.3
Patrick Mahomes5336.610.1
Isiah Pacheco9262.90-5.9
Xavier Worthy3103.30-0.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Xavier Worthy71165127%1.6
Samaje Perine335007%3.1
Marquise Brown5845020%2.2
DeAndre Hopkins4437010%4.3
Travis Kelce5730017%0.1
Kareem Hunt232407%1.1
Noah Gray111002%0.9
JuJu Smith-Schuster01002%-0.5
Justin Watson01002%-0.4
Isiah Pacheco12-105%-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Drue Tranquill520.000
Trent McDuffie410.011
Joshua Williams321.001
Justin Reid410.002
Nick Bolton400.000
Bryan Cook300.000
Leo Chenal300.000
Mike Pennel211.000
Christian Roland-Wallace110.000
Jaden Hicks020.011

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
KC -3.5
Closing total
42.5
HOU moneyline
+150
KC moneyline
-180

Chiefs closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 8.

Total closed 42.5; the game landed 46 — over by 3.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
30°F, wind 5 mph
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
HOU 6 days · KC 6 days
Coaches
DeMeco Ryans vs Andy Reid