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2024 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 22, 2024 · Allegiant Stadium

Jacksonville Jaguars

14

Las Vegas RaidersWinner

19

LV -2.5 ✓U 41.5 ✓Dome

Las Vegas Raiders 19–14. Biggest swing: Q3 1:03, LV +28% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3LV ↑JAX ↓
Q3 · 1:03JAX 13 — LV 13JAX ball · 3rd & 8LV 79%

(1:03) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep left to 7-B.Thomas for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q3 · 1:03LV +28% win prob(1:03) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep left to 7-B.Thomas for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q4 · 1:00JAX +11% win prob(1:00) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 2-D.Johnson to JAX 46 for 8 yards (7-T.Moehrig).
  3. Q4 · 13:38LV +11% win prob(13:38) (Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell pass short left to 8-A.Abdullah to JAX 35 for 12 yards (33-D.Lloyd) [41-J.Hines-Allen].
  4. Q1 · 3:20LV +8% win prob(3:20) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 7-B.Thomas to LV 12 for 16 yards (18-J.Jones; 34-T.Harper). Penalty on LV-25-D.Richardson, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 1:35JAX Touchdown

    (1:35) 73-B.Hance reported in as eligible. 4-T.Bigsby up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 7 — LV 0
  2. Q2 · 14:10LV Touchdown

    (14:10) 77-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 22-A.Mattison left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 7 — LV 7
  3. Q2 · 10:33LV Field goal

    (10:33) 2-D.Carlson 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    Score after this play: JAX 7 — LV 10
  4. Q2 · 4:00LV Field goal

    (4:00) 2-D.Carlson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    Score after this play: JAX 7 — LV 13
  5. Q3 · 1:03JAX Touchdown

    (1:03) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep left to 7-B.Thomas for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 14 — LV 13
  6. Q4 · 11:30LV Touchdown

    (11:30) 8-A.Abdullah right guard for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: JAX 14 — LV 19

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricJaguarsRaiders
Offensive plays6165
Total yards308323 (edge)
Yards per play5.0 (edge)5.0
Expected points added / play-0.21-0.07 (edge)
Success rate30%40% (edge)
Dropback rate66%65%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.180.02 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.26-0.25 (edge)
Third downs6/15 (edge)4/13
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)55
First downs gained on snaps1521 (edge)
Sacks taken1 (edge)2
Turnovers20 (edge)

Raiders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.21.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LV

Aidan O'ConnellQB

24/38, 257 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-0.2 expected points added · -9.6% completion over expected

Passing · JAX

Mac JonesQB

25/39, 247 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-5.4 expected points added · -3.6% completion over expected

Rushing · JAX

Tank BigsbyRB

12 att, 50 yds, 1 TD

-1.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LV

Ameer AbdullahRB

7 att, 38 yds, 1 TD

0.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · JAX

Brian ThomasWR

9/13 for 132 yds, 1 TD

37% of team targets · 7.4 expected points added

Receiving · LV

Brock BowersTE

11/13 for 99 yds, 0 TD

35% of team targets · 5.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1JAXJAX 309223:15Punt
2LVLV 35302:42Punt
3JAXJAX 297261:57Punt
4LVLV 14523:02Punt
5JAXLV 297212:32Touchdown +7
6LVLV 308702:27Touchdown +7
7JAXJAX 30591:26Punt
8LVLV 366332:11Field goal +3
9JAXJAX 30521:27Punt
10LVLV 3710445:05Field goal +3
11JAXJAX 302100:06Fumble
12LVJAX 45441:04Punt
13JAXJAX 109562:37Fumble
14LVLV 33100:09End of half
15LVLV 30551:03Punt
16JAXJAX 259295:19Punt
17LVLV 207203:29Punt
18JAXJAX 95141:41Punt
19LVJAX 33451:10Missed field goal
20JAXJAX 364641:24Touchdown +7
21LVLV 3012654:28Touchdown +6
22JAXJAX 30562:06Punt
23LVLV 2011426:36Punt
24JAXJAX 78491:52Turnover on downs
25LVJAX 46330:52End of game

6 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Raiders gained 70 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Mac Jones25/39247101-5.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Tank Bigsby12504.21-1.1
Travis Etienne9222.40-4.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Brian Thomas913132137%7.4
Parker Washington6654017%1.1
Brenton Strange2422011%-1.1
Travis Etienne231509%-0.4
Luke Farrell23809%-0.3
D'Ernest Johnson12806%-3.6
Josiah Deguara11403%-0.9
Devin Duvernay11303%-0.8
Tank Bigsby11103%-0.8
Josh Reynolds01003%-1.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Foyesade Oluokun620.001
Devin Lloyd520.000
Tyson Campbell410.001
Davon Hamilton320.000
Travon Walker310.000
Jarrian Jones300.000
Maason Smith211.001
Andre Cisco120.000
Arik Armstead211.000
Caleb Johnson110.000

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Aidan O'Connell24/38257002-0.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Ameer Abdullah7385.410.5
Alexander Mattison12272.31-4.4
Aidan O'Connell7121.70-1.0
Tre Tucker1-8-8.00-1.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Brock Bowers111399035%5.0
Ameer Abdullah5647016%2.9
Jakobi Meyers2541014%0.4
Tre Tucker2441011%1.6
Alexander Mattison4729019%-2.6
Terrace Marshall01003%-1.8
Michael Mayer01003%-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Isaiah Pola-Mao640.000
Robert Spillane430.000
Trevon Moehrig330.001
Darnay Holmes320.000
Jack Jones320.001
Divine Deablo220.001
Thomas Harper220.000
Charles Snowden120.001
John Jenkins030.001
K'Lavon Chaisson201.001

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
LV -2.5
Closing total
41.5
JAX moneyline
+110
LV moneyline
-130

Raiders closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 5.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 33 — under by 8.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Allegiant Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · grass
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
JAX 7 days · LV 6 days
Coaches
Doug Pederson vs Antonio Pierce