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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
Jacksonville Jaguars 14 at Las Vegas Raiders 19. Final.
Raiders -2.5 ✓U 41.5 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 16
Las Vegas Raiders 19, Jaguars 14 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 1:03, 3rd and 8, on Brian Thomas — 28.0 win-probability points to the Jaguars on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 1:03 · 3rd and 8
Brian Thomas
Jaguars
(1:03) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep left to 7-B.Thomas for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Raiders closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 5.
Las Vegas Raiders 19–14. Biggest swing: Q3 1:03, Jaguars +28.0% win probability on one snap.
28.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Ameer AbdullahRaidersQ4 13:38(13:38) (Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell pass short left to 8-A.Abdullah to JAX 35 for 12 yards (33-D.Lloyd) [41-J.Hines-Allen].
11.0pts
D'Ernest JohnsonRaidersQ4 1:00(1:00) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 2-D.Johnson to JAX 46 for 8 yards (7-T.Moehrig).
11.3pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Raiders won this one — no giveaways, against Jaguars at 2 giveaways.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Raiders won this one — 40% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Jaguars at 30% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Raiders won this one — +0.02 expected points per dropback, against Jaguars at -0.18 expected points per dropback.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Raiders won this one — -0.07 expected points per snap, against Jaguars at -0.21 expected points per snap.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 5 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Raidershigher on Jaguars172 of 182 plays carry both curves
(1:03) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep left to 7-B.Thomas for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −28.0 for RaidersExpected points −6.53 for RaidersModel and market agree here.play 133
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 1:03LV +28% win prob(1:03) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep left to 7-B.Thomas for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:00JAX +11% win prob(1:00) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 2-D.Johnson to JAX 46 for 8 yards (7-T.Moehrig).
4th · 13:38LV +11% win prob(13:38) (Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell pass short left to 8-A.Abdullah to JAX 35 for 12 yards (33-D.Lloyd) [41-J.Hines-Allen].
1st · 3:20LV +8% win prob(3:20) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 7-B.Thomas to LV 12 for 16 yards (18-J.Jones; 34-T.Harper). Penalty on LV-25-D.Richardson, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.
1st · 13:37LV +8% win prob(13:37) 73-B.Hance reported in as eligible. 4-T.Bigsby right guard to JAX 49 for 10 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao; 18-J.Jones).
3rd · 2:22JAX +8% win prob(2:22) 2-D.Carlson 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Ameer Abdullah's 7-yard rushing touchdown with 11:30 left in the 4th put Las Vegas Raiders ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
2nd10:33Daniel Carlson·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap J.Bobenmoyer+37–10
2nd4:00Daniel Carlson·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap J.Bobenmoyer+37–13
3rd1:03Brian Thomas·62-yd TD catch62-yard touchdown catchfrom Mac Jonesfrom Mac Jones+714–13
4th11:30Ameer Abdullah·7-yd TD run7-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no goodLead never changed again+614–19
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Jaguarscategory by categoryRaiders
Jaguars3–5Raiders
308Total yards323
5.0Yards per play5.0
30%Success rate40%
40%Third-down rate31%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
5Explosive plays5
15First downs21
1Sacks taken2
2Turnovers0
The read
Raiders ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.21Jaguars: −0.21 expected points added per play
−0.07Raiders: −0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.18Jaguars: −0.18 expected points added per play
+0.02Raiders: +0.02 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.26Jaguars: −0.26 expected points added per play
−0.25Raiders: −0.25 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jaguars ran 61 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Raiders’s 65 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Jaguars 2, Raiders 3.
NoteRaiders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.21.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 16Against their seasonTendencies
LV's play-action rate, 38.1%, is past their previous high of 35.1% in week 13 — the highest of their 15 charted games through week 16.
A 2.1-swing turn from week 15.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.7 points.
low through week 16Against their seasonFourth Down
LV's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 16.7% in week 1 — the lowest of their 9 charted games through week 16.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 24.6 points.
JAX's blitz rate sent turned over: 2.7% in week 15 against 21.4% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 16 pts
right on their number · +1.9 vs their 10.0%, and they swing ±4.0 week to week (+0.47× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Raiders10.0%
right on their number · −2.5 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−0.42× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
NoteLV's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 38.1%, 18.4 points above their season mean of 19.7% and 1.9 times their own 9.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Jacksonville Jaguars
48 dressed · 4 inactive · 1 never used
68Brandon ScherffG · Every snap100%67 snaps
76Ezra ClevelandG · Every snap100%67 snaps
10Mac JonesQB · Every snap100%67 snaps
65Mitch MorseC · Every snap100%67 snaps
77Anton HarrisonT · Every snap99%66 snaps
11Parker WashingtonWR · Full-time94%63 snaps
70Cole Van LanenT · Full-time93%62 snaps
7Brian Thomas Jr.WR · Full-time90%60 snaps
1Travis EtienneRB · Heavy rotation52%35 snaps
85Brenton StrangeTE · Heavy rotation51%34 snaps
89Luke FarrellTE · Rotational48%32 snaps
87Josh ReynoldsWR · Rotational43%29 snaps
12Devin DuvernayWR · Rotational31%21 snaps
4Tank BigsbyRB · Rotational28%19 snaps
81Josiah DeguaraTE · Rotational25%17 snaps
2D'Ernest JohnsonRB · Situational19%13 snaps
73Blake HanceG · Situational10%7 snaps
15Tim JonesWR · Situational9%6 snaps
72Walker LittleT · Situational7%5 snaps
Inactive · 4
Ronald DarbyCBEsezi OtomewoDEJordan JeffersonDTJavon FosterT
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
C.J. BeathardQB
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
66Dylan ParhamG · Every snap100%74 snaps
74Kolton MillerT · Every snap100%74 snaps
—Delmar GlazeT · Every snap100%74 snaps
12Aidan O'ConnellQB · Every snap100%74 snaps
68Andre JamesC · Every snap100%74 snaps
58Jackson Powers-JohnsonG · Every snap99%73 snaps
89Brock BowersTE · Full-time95%70 snaps
11Tre TuckerWR · Full-time92%68 snaps
16Jakobi MeyersWR · Full-time92%68 snaps
87Michael MayerTE · Heavy rotation61%45 snaps
22Alexander MattisonRB · Heavy rotation57%42 snaps
80Terrace Marshall Jr.WR · Rotational46%34 snaps
8Ameer AbdullahRB · Rotational43%32 snaps
84Harrison BryantTE · Situational7%5 snaps
82Ramel KeytonWR · Situational5%4 snaps
—John Samuel ShenkerTE · Situational1%1 snap
65Cody WhitehairG · Situational1%1 snap
77Thayer Munford Jr.T · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Sam WebbCBNate HobbsCBMatthew ButlerDTJordan MeredithGKana'i MaugaILBCarter BradleyQB
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Jaguars attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jaguars←Raiders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Jones pass+25% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(1:03) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep left to 7-B.Thomas for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 1:03 · Jaguars · 3rd & 8 at JAX 38 · gained 62 · +6.53 EP · +25.4% win probability
170 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 182 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 177. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was LV moving 70 yards from the LV 30 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LV attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
182 of 182 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
182
EPA per play
-0.17
Success rate
36%
Yards
622
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46-0.1776%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR32+0.0663%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30-0.2367%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.8250%
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR3——
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
182 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
182 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Jaguars 30 to the Raiders 48
Punt6 plays, from the Raiders 3 to the Raiders 35
Punt7 plays, from the Jaguars 29 to the Raiders 45
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 14 to the Raiders 26
Jaguars6Raiders0
Jaguars7Raiders0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Raiders 29 to the Raiders 1
The period ended5 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Raiders 46
2nd quarter56 plays
Jaguars7Raiders6
Jaguars7Raiders7
Touchdown4 plays, from the Jaguars 30 to the Jaguars 1
Punt6 plays
Jaguars7Raiders10
Field goal6 plays, from the Raiders 36 to the Jaguars 31
Punt6 plays
Jaguars7Raiders13
Field goal10 plays, from the Raiders 37 to the Jaguars 19
Fumble lost2 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Jaguars 45 to the Jaguars 41
The period ended12 plays, from the Jaguars 10 to the Raiders 43
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter43 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Raiders 35
Punt10 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Raiders 44
Punt8 plays, from the Raiders 20 to the Raiders 35
Punt6 plays, from the Jaguars 9 to the Jaguars 20
No good4 plays, from the Jaguars 33 to the Jaguars 25
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Jaguars13Raiders13
Jaguars14Raiders13
Touchdown4 plays, from the Jaguars 36 to the Jaguars 38
The period ended6 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Raiders 41
4th quarter42 plays
Jaguars14Raiders19
Touchdown8 plays, from the Raiders 41 to the Jaguars 7
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 30 to the Jaguars 36
The period ended14 plays, from the Raiders 20 to the Jaguars 48
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Jaguars 7 to the Jaguars 48
The period ended6 plays, from the Jaguars 46 to the Jaguars 43
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
