For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jetshigher on Rams142 of 152 plays carry both curves
Q4 · 11:53Rams 9 — Jets 9NYJ ball · 3rd & 7LA 58%
Rams 58%Jets 42%
(11:53) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at NYJ 21 for -10 yards (3-K.Curl). FUMBLES (3-K.Curl) [3-K.Curl], RECOVERED by LA-8-J.Verse at NYJ 21.
Swing −14.6 for JetsExpected points −4.83 for JetsThe model had Jets 10 points higher than the market did.play 111
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 11:53LA +15% win prob(11:53) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at NYJ 21 for -10 yards (3-K.Curl). FUMBLES (3-K.Curl) [3-K.Curl], RECOVERED by LA-8-J.Verse at NYJ 21.
4th · 10:17NYJ +11% win prob(10:17) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 5:19LA +10% win prob(5:19) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 17-D.Adams (4-A.Witherspoon).
3rd · 13:43NYJ +10% win prob(13:43) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 5-G.Wilson ran ob at NYJ 44 for 19 yards.
2nd · 1:14NYJ +9% win prob(1:14) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 10-A.Lazard to LA 23 for 11 yards (37-Q.Lake). Penalty on LA-39-J.McCollough, Defensive Offside, declined.
2nd · 8:01LA +9% win prob(8:01) (Shotgun) 20-B.Hall up the middle to NYJ 33 for no gain (48-O.Speights).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tyler Higbee's 11-yard touchdown catch with 10:17 left in the 4th put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
2nd6:25Kyren Williams·2-yd TD run2-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, hit right upright+66–6
2nd0:03Anders Carlson·21-yd field goal21-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap T.Hennessy+36–9
4th12:47Joshua Karty·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder E.Evans · snap A.Ward+39–9
4th10:17Tyler Higbee·11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew StaffordLead never changed again+716–9
4th5:22Joshua Karty·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder E.Evans · snap A.Ward+319–9
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ramscategory by categoryJets
Rams6–2Jets
246Total yards321
5.2Yards per play5.1
51%Success rate46%
56%Third-down rate38%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
3Explosive plays1
16First downs17
0Sacks taken1
1Turnovers1
The read
Rams ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.11Rams: +0.11 expected points added per play
−0.03Jets: −0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.17Rams: +0.17 expected points added per play
+0.06Jets: +0.06 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.07Rams: +0.07 expected points added per play
−0.24Jets: −0.24 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 47 snaps at a 40% dropback rate against Jets’s 63 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Rams 5, Jets 3.
NoteRams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.03.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 16 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.0 vs their 11.6%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−1.14× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Jets5.3%
inside their normal wobble · −8.4 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.96× that swing) · 19 dropbacks
NoteLA's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 34.2%, 19.1 points below their season mean of 53.3% and 1.6 times their own 12.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Rams←Jets→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Stafford pass+17% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(10:17) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 10:17 · Rams · 1st & 10 at NYJ 11 · gained 11 · +2.05 EP · +16.7% win probability
140 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 152 plays across 15 drives, personnel groupings on 140 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 147. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 15 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYJ moving 99 yards from the NYJ 1 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
152 of 152 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
152
EPA per play
-0.04
Success rate
43%
Yards
563
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45-0.1773%
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36+0.0436%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.2753%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.0344%
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Rams1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
152 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
152 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter32 plays
Punt13 plays, from the Rams 21 to the Jets 37
Rams0Jets6
Touchdown15 plays, from the Jets 1 to the Rams 11
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter41 plays
Intercepted10 plays, from the Rams 15 to the Jets 46
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Jets 24 to the Jets 33
Rams6Jets6
Touchdown4 plays, from the Jets 33 to the Jets 2
Rams6Jets9
Field goal22 plays, from the Jets 30 to the Rams 3
3rd quarter28 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Turnover on downs18 plays, from the Jets 29 to the Rams 13
The period ended10 plays, from the Rams 14 to the Jets 26
4th quarter51 plays
Rams9Jets9
Field goal6 plays, from the Jets 22 to the Jets 15
How the play was built
A man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Jets 28 to the Jets 31
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, five linebackers and four backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Rams15Jets9
Rams16Jets9
Touchdown4 plays, from the Jets 21 to the Jets 11
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Jets 41 to the Jets 48
Rams19Jets9
Field goal6 plays, from the Jets 46 to the Jets 19
No good13 plays, from the Jets 30 to the Rams 26
The period ended8 plays, from the Rams 39 to the Rams 44
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
