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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 22, 2024 · MetLife Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 16
It turned at Q4 11:53, 3rd and 7, on Aaron Rodgers — 14.6 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Los Angeles Rams 19–9. Biggest swing: Q4 11:53, Rams +14.6% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 11:53 · 3rd and 7
Aaron Rodgers
Rams
(11:53) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at NYJ 21 for -10 yards (3-K.Curl). FUMBLES (3-K.Curl) [3-K.Curl], RECOVERED by LA-8-J.Verse at NYJ 21.
14.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Rams won this one — +0.07 expected points per carry, against Jets at -0.24 expected points per carry.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Rams won this one — 5 of 9 on third down, against Jets at 5 of 13 on third down.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Rams won this one — 3 chunk plays, against Jets at 1 chunk play.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Rams won this one — +0.11 expected points per snap, against Jets at -0.03 expected points per snap.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 10.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
(11:53) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at NYJ 21 for -10 yards (3-K.Curl). FUMBLES (3-K.Curl) [3-K.Curl], RECOVERED by LA-8-J.Verse at NYJ 21.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Tyler Higbee's 11-yard touchdown catch with 10:17 left in the 4th put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Davante Adams11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Aaron Rodgers · kick no good, wide left+60–6
Tyler Higbee11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew StaffordLead never changed again+716–96 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Ramscategory by categoryJets
Rams ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 47 snaps at a 40% dropback rate against Jets’s 63 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Rams 5, Jets 3.
Rams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.03.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Rams-13.4 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −9.5 vs their -4.0 pts, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−1.42× that swing) · 47 snaps
Jets1.4 ptsright on their number · −0.8 vs their 2.1 pts, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−0.15× that swing) · 63 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 23% to 84%
Tendencies room →Rams34.2%leaned — ran early · −19.1 vs their 53.3%, and they swing ±12.0 week to week (−1.59× that swing) · 38 early downs
Jets60.0%right on their number · +0.1 vs their 59.9%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+0.01× that swing) · 45 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 4% to 57%
Tendencies room →Rams31.6%right on their number · +0.8 vs their 30.8%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (+0.08× that swing) · 19 dropbacks
Jets25.0%right on their number · +0.6 vs their 24.4%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.08× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36% to 124%
Fourth Down room →Rams—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 31.6%.
Jets83.3%leaned — went for it · +27.4 vs their 55.9%, and they swing ±25.8 week to week (+1.06× that swing) · 6 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 4% to 51%
Tendencies room →Rams18.2%leaned — sat back · −9.7 vs their 27.8%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−1.05× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Jets21.1%inside their normal wobble · −7.3 vs their 28.4%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (−0.82× that swing) · 19 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 36%
Tendencies room →Rams4.5%leaned — stayed blocked · −7.0 vs their 11.6%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−1.14× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Jets5.3%inside their normal wobble · −8.4 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.96× that swing) · 19 dropbacks
LA's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 34.2%, 19.1 points below their season mean of 53.3% and 1.6 times their own 12.0-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 5 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 5
New York Jets
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · NYJ
28/42, 256 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
2.8 expected points added · -3.4% completion over expected
Passing · LA
14/19, 110 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
3.2 expected points added · -1.8% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Garrett Wilson banked 1.6 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante AdamsWR · Alpha Receiver | 19.8 | −4.0 | 97% | 100% | 31% | 43% | 7/13, 68 yd, 1 TD |
| Breece HallRB · Bell Cow Back | 14.0 | −3.6 | 77% | 82% | 14% | 0% | 14 car, 52 yd · 5/6, 38 yd |
| Aaron RodgersQB · Starter QB | 12.8 | −5.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 28/42, 256 yd, 1 TD · 1 car, 6 yd |
| Garrett WilsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 11.4 | +1.6 | 100% | 100% | 17% | 22% | 6/7, 54 yd |
| Tyler ConklinTE · Rotational Receiver | 10.9 | −0.8 | 77% | 91% | 17% | 25% | 5/7, 59 yd |
| Allen LazardWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | −3.2 | 74% | 77% | 12% | 13% | 2/5, 20 yd |
| Jeremy RuckertTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.2 | +0.3 | 29% | 20% | 5% | 1% | 2/2, 12 yd |
| Braelon AllenRB | 2.0 | −0.5 | 14% | 11% | 2% | 1% | 2 car, 5 yd · 1/1, 5 yd |
| Isaiah DavisRB | 1.2 | −0.3 | 14% | 11% | 0% | — | 3 car, 12 yd |
| Kenny YeboahTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.7 | 17% | 7% | 2% | 5% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Xavier GipsonWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(10:17) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 10:17 · Rams · 1st & 10 at NYJ 11 · gained 11 · +2.05 EP · +16.7% win probability
140 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 152 plays across 15 drives, personnel groupings on 140 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 147. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 15 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYJ moving 99 yards from the NYJ 1 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
152 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
152 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Rams0
Jets6Rams6Jets6Rams6Jets9How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
Rams9Jets9How the play was built
A man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
Rams15Jets9Rams16Jets9Rams19Jets9Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Rams at Jets, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 14/19 | 110 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +3.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | 23 | 122 | 5.3 | 1 | +3.7 |
| Blake Corum | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 | −1.8 |
| Matthew Stafford |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | 8 | 9 | 56 | 0 | 47% | +0.9 |
| Cooper Kupp | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 16% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen McCollough | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Rozeboom | 2 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quentin Lake |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 28/42 | 256 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_16_LA_NYJ
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Rams closed -3 and covered, winning by 10.
Total closed 47; the game landed 28 — under by 19.0.
Conditions and crew
| 3 |
| -4 |
| -1.3 |
| 0 |
| −3.8 |
| +2.2 |
| Tutu Atwell | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 11% | +1.6 |
| Tyler Higbee | 1 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 11% | +1.6 |
| Kyren Williams | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 5% | +0.1 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −2.6 |
| Colby Parkinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.6 |
| 4 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Kamren Curl | 1 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ahkello Witherspoon | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Darious Williams | 0 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Omar Speights | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kamren Kinchens | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jared Verse | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Braden Fiske | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 14 | 52 | 3.7 | 0 | −4.2 |
| Isaiah Davis | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Braelon Allen | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 7 | 13 | 68 | 1 | 31% | +1.1 |
| Tyler Conklin | 5 | 7 | 59 | 0 | 17% | −0.1 |
| Garrett Wilson | 6 | 7 | 54 | 0 | 17% | +4.7 |
| Breece Hall | 5 | 6 | 38 | 0 | 14% | +0.5 |
| Allen Lazard | 2 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 12% | +1.4 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 5% | +0.4 |
| Braelon Allen | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2% | +0.0 |
| Kenny Yeboah | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamien Sherwood | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chuck Clark | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Oliver | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ashtyn Davis | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tony Adams | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| D.J. Reed | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quincy Williams | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Javon Kinlaw | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandin Echols | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leonard Taylor | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
