For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
MarketModelmodel higher on Seahawkshigher on Vikings170 of 180 plays carry both curves
(3:58) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 18-J.Jefferson for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-D.Jones].
Swing −28.9 for SeahawksExpected points −3.76 for SeahawksThe model had Seahawks 6 points higher than the market did.play 160
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 3:58SEA +29% win prob(3:58) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 18-J.Jefferson for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-D.Jones].
4th · 4:26SEA +18% win prob(4:26) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 88-A.Barner for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:00MIN +15% win prob(2:00) 5-J.Myers 60 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
4th · 4:03SEA +11% win prob(4:03) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at MIN 38 for -8 yards (sack split by 55-D.Jones and 91-B.Murphy). PENALTY on SEA-91-B.Murphy, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at MIN 46 - No Play.
2nd · 13:41SEA +10% win prob(13:41) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 14-D.Metcalf for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 5:50MIN +9% win prob(5:50) 7-G.Smith pass short right intended for 87-N.Fant INTERCEPTED by 15-D.Turner [44-J.Metellus] at SEA 35. 15-D.Turner to SEA 31 for 4 yards (87-N.Fant).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Justin Jefferson's 39-yard touchdown catch with 3:58 left in the 4th put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st8:09Jordan Addison·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam Darnoldfrom Sam Darnold+77–0
4th3:58Justin Jefferson·39-yd TD catch39-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam Darnoldfrom Sam DarnoldLead never changed again+727–24
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Vikingscategory by categorySeahawks
Vikings2–6Seahawks
301Total yards361
5.1Yards per play6.0
46%Success rate50%
25%Third-down rate20%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
3Explosive plays4
17First downs21
3Sacks taken2
0Turnovers2
The read
Seahawks ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Vikings, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.10Vikings: +0.10 expected points added per play
+0.04Seahawks: +0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.23Vikings: +0.23 expected points added per play
+0.02Seahawks: +0.02 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.19Vikings: −0.19 expected points added per play
+0.10Seahawks: +0.10 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 59 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 60 at 77%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 3, Seahawks 3.
NoteSeahawks outgained Vikings 361-301 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 20 pts
right on their number · +1.1 vs their 16.3%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+0.18× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Seahawks17.5%
right on their number · −0.0 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.01× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
NoteSEA's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 11.1 pts, 9.5 points above their season mean of 1.7 pts and 1.4 times their own 7.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Minnesota Vikings
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
64Blake BrandelG · Every snap100%66 snaps
74Cam RobinsonT · Every snap100%66 snaps
66Dalton RisnerG · Every snap100%66 snaps
75Brian O'NeillT · Every snap100%66 snaps
56Garrett BradburyC · Every snap100%66 snaps
14Sam DarnoldQB · Every snap100%66 snaps
18Justin JeffersonWR · Full-time97%64 snaps
3Jordan AddisonWR · Full-time89%59 snaps
33Aaron JonesRB · Full-time82%54 snaps
87T.J. HockensonTE · Heavy rotation70%46 snaps
83Jalen NailorWR · Heavy rotation53%35 snaps
84Josh OliverTE · Rotational47%31 snaps
30C.J. HamFB · Situational20%13 snaps
86Johnny MundtTE · Situational15%10 snaps
11Trent SherfieldWR · Situational11%7 snaps
27Cam AkersRB · Situational11%7 snaps
4Brandon PowellWR · Situational6%4 snaps
Inactive · 7
Dan FeeneyCFabian MoreauCBJalen RedmondDEBrett RypienQBHarrison SmithSSWalter RouseTNick MuseTE
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Vikings←Seahawks→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
S.Darnold pass+26% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(3:58) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 18-J.Jefferson for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-D.Jones].
Q4 3:58 · Vikings · 1st & 10 at SEA 39 · gained 39 · +3.76 EP · +25.7% win probability
168 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 180 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 168 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 175. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 88 yards from the SEA 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
180 of 180 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
180
EPA per play
+0.08
Success rate
49%
Yards
659
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42+0.1286%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37+0.1476%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16-0.0438%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.1662%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Vikings1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
180 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
180 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Vikings6Seahawks0
Vikings7Seahawks0
Touchdown15 plays, from the Vikings 30 to the Seahawks 5
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 32 to the Seahawks 40
Punt8 plays, from the Vikings 9 to the Vikings 40
The period ended5 plays, from the Seahawks 13 to the Seahawks 49
2nd quarter51 plays
Vikings7Seahawks6
Vikings7Seahawks7
Touchdown4 plays, from the Vikings 45 to the Vikings 25
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 30 to the Vikings 33
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 12 to the Seahawks 21
Vikings13Seahawks7
Vikings14Seahawks7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Vikings 33 to the Seahawks 14
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.7 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
Vikings17Seahawks7
Field goal4 plays, from the Seahawks 31 to the Seahawks 29
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 19 to the Seahawks 21
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 29 to the Vikings 36
Vikings17Seahawks13
Vikings17Seahawks14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Seahawks 12 to the Vikings 18
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
Vikings17Seahawks17
Field goal11 plays, from the Seahawks 35 to the Vikings 25
Vikings20Seahawks17
Field goal11 plays, from the Vikings 30 to the Seahawks 30
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the Seahawks 33
Punt7 plays, from the Vikings 16 to the Seahawks 46
The period ended7 plays, from the Seahawks 8 to the Seahawks 41
4th quarter53 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Seahawks 46 to the Vikings 47
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 20 to the Vikings 27
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFive linebackers and six backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFive linebackers and six backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Vikings20Seahawks23
Vikings20Seahawks24
Touchdown14 plays, from the Seahawks 32 to the Vikings 3
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.5 seconds
Vikings26Seahawks24
Vikings27Seahawks24
Touchdown8 plays, from the Vikings 30 to the Seahawks 39
No good7 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the Vikings 37
The period ended7 plays, from midfield to the Seahawks 47
Intercepted2 plays
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Vikings -2.5
Closing total
43
Vikings moneyline
-148
Seahawks moneyline
+124
Vikings closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 3.
Total closed 43; the game landed 51 — over by 8.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lumen Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Cool, 47°F at kickoff; breezy at 11 mph out of the south-east; 0.20 in of precipitation; slight rain.
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
Vikings 6 days · Seahawks 7 days
Coaches
Kevin O'Connell vs Mike Macdonald
4th · 3:04
MIN +9% win prob
(3:04) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at MIN 43 for -6 yards (43-A.Van Ginkel).
4th · 0:55MIN +9% win prob(:55) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right intended for 14-D.Metcalf INTERCEPTED by 26-Th.Jackson [52-Ji.Ward] at SEA 32. 26-Th.Jackson to SEA 29 for 3 yards. PENALTY on MIN-15-D.Turner, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 29.
