2024 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 22, 2024 · Lumen Field

Minnesota VikingsWinner

Seattle Seahawks

MIN -2.5 ✓O 43 ✓Vikings closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 3.

Minnesota Vikings 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 3:58, SEA +29% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 3:58MIN 26 — SEA 24MIN ball · 1st & 10SEA 57%

(3:58) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 18-J.Jefferson for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-D.Jones].

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 3:58SEA +29% win prob(3:58) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 18-J.Jefferson for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-D.Jones].
Q4 · 4:26SEA +18% win prob(4:26) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 88-A.Barner for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 2:00MIN +15% win prob(2:00) 5-J.Myers 60 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Q4 · 4:03SEA +11% win prob(4:03) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at MIN 38 for -8 yards (sack split by 55-D.Jones and 91-B.Murphy). PENALTY on SEA-91-B.Murphy, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at MIN 46 - No Play.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 8:09MIN Touchdown
(8:09) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 3-J.Addison for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIN 7 — SEA 0
Q2 · 13:41SEA Touchdown
(13:41) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 14-D.Metcalf for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIN 7 — SEA 7
Q2 · 5:54MIN Touchdown
(5:54) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on MIN-18-J.Jefferson, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIN 14 — SEA 7
Q2 · 3:38MIN Field goal
(3:38) 16-W.Reichard 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
Score after this play: MIN 17 — SEA 7
Q2 · 0:24SEA Touchdown
(:24) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIN 17 — SEA 14
Q3 · 10:41SEA Field goal
(10:41) 5-J.Myers 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Score after this play: MIN 17 — SEA 17
Q3 · 6:29MIN Field goal
(6:29) 16-W.Reichard 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
Score after this play: MIN 20 — SEA 17
Q4 · 4:26SEA Touchdown
(4:26) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 88-A.Barner for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIN 20 — SEA 24
Q4 · 3:58MIN Touchdown
(3:58) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 18-J.Jefferson for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-D.Jones]. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIN 27 — SEA 24

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Vikings	Seahawks
Offensive plays	59	60
Total yards	301	361 (edge)
Yards per play	5.1	6.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.10 (edge)	0.04
Success rate	46%	50% (edge)
Dropback rate	68%	77%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.23 (edge)	0.02
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.19	0.10 (edge)
Third downs	3/12 (edge)	2/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	4 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	17	21 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	2 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Seahawks outgained Vikings 361–301 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SEA

Geno SmithQB

31/43, 314 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT

0.3 expected points added · +6.4% completion over expected

Passing · MIN

Sam DarnoldQB

22/35, 246 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

8.4 expected points added · -1.7% completion over expected

Rushing · MIN

Aaron JonesRB

18 att, 67 yds, 0 TD

-3.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SEA

Kenneth WalkerRB

8 att, 31 yds, 0 TD

0.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIN

Justin JeffersonWR

10/13 for 144 yds, 2 TD

37% of team targets · 13.0 expected points added

Receiving · SEA

Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR

8/12 for 95 yds, 1 TD

29% of team targets · 1.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIN	MIN 30	14	70	6:54	Touchdown +7
2	SEA	SEA 32	5	8	1:57	Punt
3	MIN	MIN 9	8	31	3:31	Punt
4	SEA	SEA 13	8	87	4:03	Touchdown +7
5	MIN	MIN 30	5	-6	1:34	Punt
6	SEA	SEA 12	4	9	1:32	Punt
7	MIN	MIN 33	9	62	4:39	Touchdown +7
8	SEA	SEA 30	2	0	0:08	Interception
9	MIN	SEA 31	4	-3	2:09	Field goal +3
10	SEA	SEA 19	5	2	1:36	Punt
11	MIN	MIN 29	4	7	0:32	Punt
12	SEA	SEA 12	6	88	1:05	Touchdown +7
13	MIN	MIN 21	2	0	0:20	End of half
14	SEA	SEA 35	9	25	4:23	Field goal +3
15	MIN	MIN 30	9	40	4:12	Field goal +3
16	SEA	SEA 30	5	3	1:40	Punt
17	MIN	MIN 16	7	38	2:47	Punt
18	SEA	SEA 8	12	28	4:37	Punt
19	MIN	MIN 20	4	7	1:44	Punt
20	SEA	SEA 32	12	83	6:16	Touchdown +7
21	MIN	MIN 30	6	60	0:30	Touchdown +7
22	SEA	SEA 30	7	28	1:56	Missed field goal
23	MIN	50	4	-5	1:00	Punt
24	SEA	SEA 17	1	0	0:06	Interception
25	MIN	SEA 44	2	0	0:49	End of game

9 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Seahawks gained 88 scrimmage yards over 6 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sam Darnold	22/35	246	3	0	3	8.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Aaron Jones	18	67	3.7	-3.4
Sam Darnold	5	11	2.2	-0.6
Cam Akers	1	3	3.0	-0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Justin Jefferson	10	13	144	2	37%	13.0
Jordan Addison	5	8	35	1	23%	-0.4
T.J. Hockenson	2	5	27	0	14%	0.9
Aaron Jones	3	5	26	0	14%	-1.7
C.J. Ham	1	1	9	0	3%	0.9
Jalen Nailor	1	2	5	0	6%	0.5
Josh Oliver	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Blake Cashman	7	3	0.0	0	1
Byron Murphy	5	3	0.0	0	1
Josh Metellus	2	5	0.0	0	0
Andrew Van Ginkel	2	3	2.0	0	0
Camryn Bynum	1	4	0.0	0	1
Theo Jackson	2	2	0.0	1	1
Bobby McCain	2	2	0.0	0	0
Jerry Tillery	1	2	0.0	0	0
Jonathan Greenard	2	1	0.0	0	0
Dallas Turner	1	2	0.0	1	1

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Geno Smith	31/43	314	3	2	2	0.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Kenneth Walker	8	31	3.9	0.2
Kenny McIntosh	3	14	4.7	0.2
Geno Smith	1	8	8.0	0.6
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	1	5	5.0	0.1
Julian Love	1	2	2.0	2.2
Zach Charbonnet	1	-1	-1.0	-1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	8	12	95	1	29%	1.7
DK Metcalf	3	7	57	1	17%	-0.5
Noah Fant	3	6	50	0	14%	-4.2
Kenneth Walker	8	8	28	0	19%	-0.6
Tyler Lockett	2	2	19	0	5%	1.1
Pharaoh Brown	1	1	17	0	2%	1.2
Kenny McIntosh	1	1	15	0	2%	0.9
Zach Charbonnet	2	2	14	0	5%	1.0
A.J. Barner	2	2	13	1	5%	3.1
Jake Bobo	1	1	6	0	2%	0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Josh Jobe	7	0	0.0	1
Tyrice Knight	3	4	0.0	0
Devon Witherspoon	4	2	0.0	1
Ernest Jones	2	3	0.0	0
Coby Bryant	3	1	0.0	0
Leonard Williams	2	2	0.0	0
Uchenna Nwosu	1	3	0.0	0
Jarran Reed	2	1	1.0	1
Julian Love	1	1	0.0	1
Tariq Woolen	1	1	0.0	3

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIN -2.5
Closing total: 43
MIN moneyline: -148
SEA moneyline: +124

Vikings closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 3.

Total closed 43; the game landed 51 — over by 8.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lumen Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 48°F, wind 5 mph
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Rest: MIN 6 days · SEA 7 days
Coaches: Kevin O'Connell vs Mike Macdonald