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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 22.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 41 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
MarketModelmodel higher on Billshigher on Patriots165 of 178 plays carry both curves
(1:58) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right intended for 81-A.Hooper INTERCEPTED by 39-C.Lewis at BUF -1. Touchback.
Swing +13.8 for BillsExpected points +5.69 for BillsThe model had Patriots 27 points higher than the market did.play 116
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 1:58NE +14% win prob(1:58) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right intended for 81-A.Hooper INTERCEPTED by 39-C.Lewis at BUF -1. Touchback.
4th · 10:17NE +13% win prob(10:17) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye FUMBLES (Aborted) at NE 3, RECOVERED by BUF-7-Ta.Johnson at NE -1. TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 12:05BUF +12% win prob(12:05) (Shotgun) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 4-J.Cook left tackle for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 9:09NE +11% win prob(9:09) 38-R.Stevenson right tackle to NE 39 for 1 yard (50-G.Rousseau; 43-T.Bernard). FUMBLES (50-G.Rousseau), RECOVERED by BUF-42-Do.Williams at NE 42.
1st · 12:06BUF +10% win prob(12:06) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 9-K.Boutte for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 7:54BUF +9% win prob(7:54) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to NE 33 for 5 yards (43-T.Bernard).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tyler Bass's 50-yard field goal with 6:07 left in the 3rd put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Patriots ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Bills, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.03Patriots: −0.03 expected points added per play
+0.03Bills: +0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.15Patriots: +0.15 expected points added per play
+0.07Bills: +0.07 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.28Patriots: −0.28 expected points added per play
−0.02Bills: −0.02 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 68 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Bills’s 58 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 4, Bills 2.
NotePatriots outgained Bills 379-324 but lost the turnover battle 3-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 16Against their seasonTendencies
BUF's blitz rate sent, 45.0%, is past their previous high of 37.1% in week 11 — the highest of their 15 charted games through week 16.
A 2.3-swing turn from week 15.
40 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 19 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.3 vs their 10.2%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−0.60× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Bills15.0%
right on their number · +0.1 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±4.1 week to week (+0.03× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
NoteBUF's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 45.0%, 22.5 points above their season mean of 22.5% and 1.9 times their own 12.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
75Demontrey JacobsT · Every snap100%73 snaps
77Ben BrownG · Every snap100%73 snaps
64Layden RobinsonG · Every snap100%73 snaps
71Mike OnwenuG · Every snap100%73 snaps
59Vederian LoweT · Every snap100%73 snaps
10Drake MayeQB · Every snap100%73 snaps
9Kayshon BoutteWR · Full-time88%64 snaps
85Hunter HenryTE · Full-time84%61 snaps
84Kendrick BourneWR · Heavy rotation70%51 snaps
81Austin HooperTE · Heavy rotation68%50 snaps
4Antonio GibsonRB · Heavy rotation59%43 snaps
3Demario DouglasWR · Heavy rotation59%43 snaps
38Rhamondre StevensonRB · Rotational44%32 snaps
6Javon BakerWR · Situational11%8 snaps
88Jaheim BellTE · Situational7%5 snaps
61Lester CottonG · Situational7%5 snaps
1Ja'Lynn PolkWR · Situational4%3 snaps
Inactive · 6
Marcus JonesCBLecitus SmithGTyrese RobinsonGJoe Milton IIIQBJaMycal HastyRBJabrill PeppersSS
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Patriots←Bills→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Maye pass−25% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(1:58) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right intended for 81-A.Hooper INTERCEPTED by 39-C.Lewis at BUF -1. Touchback.
Q3 1:58 · Patriots · 1st & 10 at BUF 16 · gained nothing · -5.69 EP · −25.2% win probability
163 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 178 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 173. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 91 yards from the NE 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
178 of 178 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
178
EPA per play
+0.05
Success rate
47%
Yards
703
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38+0.0168%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR30-0.1353%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27+0.2870%
Bills2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR9+0.310%
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8+0.0038%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Patriots1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Patriots0 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
178 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
178 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Patriots6Bills0
Patriots7Bills0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Patriots 42 to the Bills 28
Punt8 plays, from the Bills 32 to the Bills 43
The period ended17 plays, from the Patriots 9 to the Bills 13
2nd quarter52 plays
Patriots13Bills0
Patriots14Bills0
Touchdown6 plays, from the Bills 8 to the Bills 4
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, four linebackers and three backsIn the boxSix defenders
Patriots14Bills6
Patriots14Bills7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Patriots 46
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 27 to the Patriots 36
Intercepted7 plays, from the Bills 32 to the Patriots 38
Punt12 plays, from the Patriots 1 to the Patriots 34
Punt10 plays, from the Bills 20 to the Bills 44
The period ended6 plays, from the Patriots 20 to the Patriots 44
3rd quarter34 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, one linebacker and seven backsRoute runDragCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Patriots14Bills13
Patriots14Bills14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bills 32 to the Patriots 4
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Patriots 30 to the Patriots 38
Patriots14Bills17
Field goal6 plays, from the Patriots 42 to the Patriots 30
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a screen, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.9 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Intercepted9 plays, from the Patriots 30 to the Bills 16
The period ended5 plays, from the Bills 20 to the Bills 35
4th quarter57 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Bills 45 to the Patriots 35
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Patriots14Bills23
Touchdown2 plays, from the Patriots 10 to the Patriots 12
Patriots14Bills24
Punt8 plays, from the Patriots 30 to midfield
Punt8 plays, from the Bills 9 to the Bills 38
Patriots20Bills24
Patriots21Bills24
Touchdown19 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Bills 1
The period ended11 plays, from the Patriots 48 to the Patriots 27
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Bills -14
Closing total
48
Patriots moneyline
+700
Bills moneyline
-1100
Bills closed -14, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 48; the game landed 45 — under by 3.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
New Era Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · a turf
Kickoff weather
Bitter, 11°F at kickoff; still at 2 mph out of the north-east; clear.
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
Patriots 7 days · Bills 7 days
Coaches
Jerod Mayo vs Sean McDermott
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
2nd · 14:21
BUF +8% win prob
(14:21) 38-R.Stevenson right guard for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 3:59BUF +8% win prob(3:59) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 24-D.Pettus. 24-D.Pettus up the middle to NE 25 for 2 yards (42-Do.Williams; 41-R.Gilliam).
