2024 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 22, 2024 · New Era Field

New England Patriots

Buffalo BillsWinner

BUF -14 no coverU 48 ✓14°FBills closed -14, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Buffalo Bills 24–21 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q3 1:58, NE +14% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 1:58NE 14 — BUF 17NE ball · 1st & 10BUF 73%

(1:58) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right intended for 81-A.Hooper INTERCEPTED by 39-C.Lewis at BUF -1. Touchback.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 1:58NE +14% win prob(1:58) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right intended for 81-A.Hooper INTERCEPTED by 39-C.Lewis at BUF -1. Touchback.
Q4 · 10:17NE +13% win prob(10:17) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye FUMBLES (Aborted) at NE 3, RECOVERED by BUF-7-Ta.Johnson at NE -1. TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 12:05BUF +12% win prob(12:05) (Shotgun) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 4-J.Cook left tackle for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 9:09NE +11% win prob(9:09) 38-R.Stevenson right tackle to NE 39 for 1 yard (50-G.Rousseau; 43-T.Bernard). FUMBLES (50-G.Rousseau), RECOVERED by BUF-42-Do.Williams at NE 42.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 12:06NE Touchdown
(12:06) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 9-K.Boutte for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 7 — BUF 0
Q2 · 14:21NE Touchdown
(14:21) 38-R.Stevenson right guard for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 14 — BUF 0
Q2 · 12:05BUF Touchdown
(12:05) (Shotgun) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 4-J.Cook left tackle for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 14 — BUF 7
Q3 · 9:45BUF Touchdown
(9:45) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 4-J.Cook for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 14 — BUF 14
Q3 · 6:07BUF Field goal
(6:07) 2-T.Bass 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Score after this play: NE 14 — BUF 17
Q4 · 10:17BUF Touchdown
(10:17) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye FUMBLES (Aborted) at NE 3, RECOVERED by BUF-7-Ta.Johnson at NE -1. TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 14 — BUF 24
Q4 · 1:17NE Touchdown
(1:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 85-H.Henry for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 21 — BUF 24

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Patriots	Bills
Offensive plays	68	58
Total yards	379 (edge)	324
Yards per play	5.6	5.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.03	0.03 (edge)
Success rate	46%	47% (edge)
Dropback rate	59%	59%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.15 (edge)	0.07
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.28	-0.02 (edge)
Third downs	7/12 (edge)	4/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	21 (edge)	19
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	3	1 (edge)

Patriots outgained Bills 379–324 but lost the turnover battle 3–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NE

Drake MayeQB

22/36, 261 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

4.2 expected points added · +7.8% completion over expected

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

16/29, 154 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

1.5 expected points added · -4.1% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

James CookRB

11 att, 100 yds, 1 TD

2.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NE

Rhamondre StevensonRB

12 att, 60 yds, 1 TD

-2.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NE

Kayshon BoutteWR

5/7 for 95 yds, 1 TD

23% of team targets · 4.8 expected points added

Receiving · NE

Austin HooperTE

4/5 for 55 yds, 0 TD

16% of team targets · -1.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NE	NE 42	8	44	2:59	Touchdown +7
2	BUF	BUF 32	8	11	2:48	Punt
3	NE	NE 9	17	97	9:57	Touchdown +7
4	BUF	BUF 30	6	70	2:20	Touchdown +7
5	NE	NE 27	5	9	0:58	Punt
6	BUF	BUF 32	6	29	2:57	Interception
7	NE	NE 1	11	33	6:13	Punt
8	BUF	BUF 20	8	29	1:35	Punt
9	NE	NE 20	3	56	0:13	End of half
10	BUF	BUF 32	11	68	5:19	Touchdown +7
11	NE	NE 30	3	9	0:37	Fumble
12	BUF	NE 42	6	10	3:02	Field goal +3
13	NE	NE 30	9	54	4:10	Interception
14	BUF	BUF 20	11	55	5:52	Punt
15	NE	NE 10	2	2	0:50	Defensive touchdown
16	NE	NE 30	7	20	1:44	Punt
17	BUF	BUF 9	7	29	3:57	Punt
18	NE	NE 25	14	55	3:16	Touchdown +7
19	BUF	NE 48	6	23	1:13	End of game

6 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 97 scrimmage yards over 17 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Drake Maye	22/36	261	2	1	2	4.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Rhamondre Stevenson	12	60	5.0	1	-2.9
Drake Maye	6	30	5.0	0	-2.4
Antonio Gibson	10	28	2.8	0	-3.0
Demario Douglas	1	6	6.0	0	0.5
Dell Pettus	1	2	2.0	0	1.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Kayshon Boutte	5	7	95	1	23%	4.8
Austin Hooper	4	5	55	0	16%	-1.3
Hunter Henry	4	8	39	1	26%	4.9
Demario Douglas	4	5	33	0	16%	1.0
Kendrick Bourne	2	2	18	0	6%	0.7
Rhamondre Stevenson	1	1	13	0	3%	1.9
Antonio Gibson	2	2	8	0	6%	-0.9
Javon Baker	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Kyle Dugger	6	2	0.0	0	0
Christian Elliss	4	3	0.0	0	1
Marte Mapu	2	4	0.0	1	2
Jahlani Tavai	2	3	0.0	0	0
Jaylinn Hawkins	1	3	0.0	0	0
Jeremiah Pharms	3	1	1.0	0	0
Jonathan Jones	2	2	0.0	0	1
Davon Godchaux	2	2	0.0	0	0
Deatrich Wise	1	2	0.0	0	0
Sione Takitaki	1	1	0.0	0	0

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	16/29	154	1	1	1	1.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Cook	11	100	9.1	1	2.8
Josh Allen	6	30	5.0	0	-0.3
Ty Johnson	6	30	5.0	0	-1.2
Ray Davis	5	12	2.4	0	-0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
James Cook	3	3	26	1	11%	3.6
Mack Hollins	2	3	25	0	11%	-0.4
Khalil Shakir	2	6	22	0	22%	-0.4
Dawson Knox	2	2	22	0	7%	1.4
Ray Davis	1	1	17	0	4%	1.3
Keon Coleman	1	2	17	0	7%	1.2
Dalton Kincaid	4	7	15	0	26%	-2.2
Amari Cooper	1	2	10	0	7%	0.2
Ty Johnson	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Terrel Bernard	8	4	0.0	0	0
Dorian Williams	3	5	0.0	0	0
Cole Bishop	5	2	0.0	0	0
Kaiir Elam	2	4	0.0	0	0
Gregory Rousseau	2	2	0.0	0	0
Christian Benford	2	2	0.0	0	0
Cameron Lewis	3	1	0.0	1	1
Baylon Spector	0	3	0.5	0	0
Taron Johnson	1	2	0.0	0	0
Ja'Marcus Ingram	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -14
Closing total: 48
NE moneyline: +700
BUF moneyline: -1100

Bills closed -14, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 48; the game landed 45 — under by 3.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: New Era Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · a turf
Kickoff weather: 14°F, wind 2 mph
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: NE 7 days · BUF 7 days
Coaches: Jerod Mayo vs Sean McDermott

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.