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New Orleans Saints 0 at Green Bay Packers 34. Final.
Packers -14 ✓U 44 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 16
Green Bay Packers 34, Saints 0 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 13:27, 3rd and 1, on Josh Jacobs — 5.1 win-probability points to the Saints on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 13:27 · 3rd and 1
Josh Jacobs
Saints
(13:27) 8-J.Jacobs right end to GB 49 for 3 yards (0-U.Amadi).
Packers closed -14 and covered, winning by 34.
Green Bay Packers 34–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 13:27, Saints +5.1% win probability on one snap.
5.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Josh JacobsPackersQ1 12:49(12:49) 8-J.Jacobs left end to NO 44 for 7 yards (95-J.Ridgeway).
4.9pts
Dontayvion WicksPackersQ1 8:45(8:45) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 13-D.Wicks for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN [56-D.Davis].
4.1pts
What separated them
Every snap
Packers won this one — +0.26 expected points per snap, against Saints at -0.35 expected points per snap.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Packers won this one — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Saints at 32% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Packers won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Saints at 3 chunk plays.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Packers won this one — +0.31 expected points per carry, against Saints at -0.19 expected points per carry.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 36 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
MarketModelmodel higher on Packershigher on Saints154 of 165 plays carry both curves
(13:27) 8-J.Jacobs right end to GB 49 for 3 yards (0-U.Amadi).
Swing −5.1 for PackersExpected points +0.53 for PackersThe model had Saints 34 points higher than the market did.play 6
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 13:27NO +5% win prob(13:27) 8-J.Jacobs right end to GB 49 for 3 yards (0-U.Amadi).
1st · 12:49GB +5% win prob(12:49) 8-J.Jacobs left end to NO 44 for 7 yards (95-J.Ridgeway).
1st · 8:45GB +4% win prob(8:45) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 13-D.Wicks for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN [56-D.Davis].
1st · 8:02GB +3% win prob(8:02) 25-K.Miller left guard to NO 45 for 4 yards (52-R.Gary).
1st · 15:00GB +3% win prob19-B.Grupe kicks 66 yards from NO 35 to GB -1. 25-K.Nixon to GB 37 for 38 yards (46-A.Prentice; 48-J.Gray).
1st · 8:36GB +3% win prob(8:36) (Shotgun) 18-S.Rattler scrambles right end to NO 41 for 7 yards (45-Er.Wilson).
2nd · 12:55GB +2% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Dontayvion Wicks's 2-yard touchdown catch with 8:45 left in the 1st put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:45Dontayvion Wicks·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Jordan Lovefrom Jordan LoveLead never changed again+70–7
Packers ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.41 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.35Saints: −0.35 expected points added per play
+0.26Packers: +0.26 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.41Saints: −0.41 expected points added per play
+0.20Packers: +0.20 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.19Saints: −0.19 expected points added per play
+0.31Packers: +0.31 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 53 snaps at a 72% dropback rate against Packers’s 67 at 45%. Red-zone trips: Saints 0, Packers 4.
NotePackers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.26 expected points added per play vs -0.35.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
NO's play-action rate, 7.9%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 16 — 0.1 points clear of the next team along.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 13 pts
right on their number · −2.0 vs their 12.0%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.29× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Packers15.8%
right on their number · +2.3 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+0.34× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
NoteGB's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 60.0%, 26.3 points above their season mean of 33.8% and 1.3 times their own 19.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
51Cesar RuizC · Every snap100%56 snaps
18Spencer RattlerQB · Every snap100%56 snaps
75Taliese FuagaT · Every snap100%56 snaps
70Trevor PenningT · Every snap100%56 snaps
62Lucas PatrickG · Full-time98%55 snaps
81Kevin Austin Jr.WR · Full-time89%50 snaps
66Shane LemieuxG · Full-time87%49 snaps
83Juwan JohnsonTE · Heavy rotation73%41 snaps
17Dante PettisWR · Heavy rotation66%37 snaps
11Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR · Heavy rotation55%31 snaps
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Saints←Packers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Love pass+8% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(12:55) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 85-T.Kraft to NO 14 for 21 yards (14-K.McKinstry).
Q2 12:55 · Packers · 4th & 2 at NO 35 · gained 21 · +3.36 EP · +8.3% win probability
152 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 165 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 152 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 160. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 96 yards from the GB 4 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
165 of 165 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
165
EPA per play
+0.01
Success rate
42%
Yards
600
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42+0.2055%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33+0.0373%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19+0.4326%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.7150%
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.1633%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-1.3240%
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Saints0Packers6
Saints0Packers7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Packers 37 to the Saints 1
Punt9 plays, from the Saints 34 to the Packers 40
The period ended13 plays, from the Packers 4 to the Saints 46
2nd quarter48 plays
Saints0Packers13
Saints0Packers14
Touchdown8 plays, from the Saints 45 to the Saints 2
Punt6 plays
Saints0Packers20
Saints0Packers21
Touchdown7 plays, from the Packers 33 to the Saints 1
Fumble lost8 plays, from the Saints 39 to the Packers 29
Punt4 plays, from the Packers 34 to the Packers 40
The period ended15 plays, from the Saints 20 to the Packers 34
3rd quarter33 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Saints 22 to the Saints 41
Saints0Packers24
Field goal10 plays, from the Packers 16 to the Saints 37
Intercepted10 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Packers 22
The period ended5 plays, from the Packers 20 to the Packers 44
4th quarter48 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Packers 48 to the Saints 47
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 34 to the Saints 47
Saints0Packers27
Field goal9 plays, from the Packers 16 to the Saints 28
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Saints 33
Saints0Packers33
Saints0Packers34
Touchdown9 plays, from the Saints 48 to the Saints 1
The period ended10 plays, from the Saints 22 to the Saints 49
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
