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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 22, 2024 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 16
It turned at Q2 8:05, 2nd and 7, on Jessie Bates — 22.7 win-probability points to the Falcons on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 8:05 · 2nd and 7
Jessie Bates
Falcons
(8:05) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass short left intended for 17-W.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 3-J.Bates [55-K.Elliss] at ATL 45. 3-J.Bates for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NYG-1-M.Nabers, Illegal Shift, declined.
Atlanta Falcons 34–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 8:05, Falcons +22.7% win probability on one snap.
22.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Every snap
Falcons won this one — +0.08 expected points per snap, against Giants at -0.43 expected points per snap.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Falcons won this one — +0.18 expected points per dropback, against Giants at -0.51 expected points per dropback.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Falcons won this one — 1 giveaway, against Giants at 3 giveaways.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Falcons won this one — 8 of 14 on third down, against Giants at 3 of 9 on third down.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 10.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 30 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
(8:05) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass short left intended for 17-W.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 3-J.Bates [55-K.Elliss] at ATL 45. 3-J.Bates for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NYG-1-M.Nabers, Illegal Shift, declined.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jessie Bates's 55-yard touchdown with 8:05 left in the 2nd put Atlanta Falcons ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Jessie Bates55-yd defence TD55-yard touchdownthe defence scored itLead never changed again+77–107 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Giantscategory by categoryFalcons
Falcons ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.51 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 55 snaps at a 76% dropback rate against Falcons’s 63 at 46%. Red-zone trips: Giants 2, Falcons 4.
Falcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.43.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NYG's pass rate over expected, +12.2 pts, is past their previous high of +3.8 pts in week 15 — the highest of their 15 charted games through week 16.
55 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.4 points.
ATL's play-action rate turned over: 4.8% in week 15 against 24.1% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 15 pts
Over Expected room →Giants12.2 ptsoff script — threw more than the situation asked · +15.8 vs their -3.6 pts, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+2.13× that swing) · 55 snaps
Falcons-11.4 ptsright on their number · −3.3 vs their -8.1 pts, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−0.50× that swing) · 63 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 20% to 83%
Tendencies room →Giants71.1%leaned — passed early · +13.3 vs their 57.8%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (+1.44× that swing) · 45 early downs
Falcons36.7%leaned — ran early · −12.3 vs their 49.1%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (−1.08× that swing) · 49 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 51%
Tendencies room →Giants21.4%right on their number · −2.5 vs their 24.0%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (−0.24× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Falcons24.1%leaned — faked the run · +9.6 vs their 14.5%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+1.45× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -31% to 133%
Fourth Down room →Giants—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 39.8%.
Falcons0.0%leaned — took the kick · −50.7 vs their 50.7%, and they swing ±32.2 week to week (−1.57× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 61%
Tendencies room →Giants37.9%inside their normal wobble · +8.7 vs their 29.2%, and they swing ±12.2 week to week (+0.72× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Falcons31.0%right on their number · +4.0 vs their 27.0%, and they swing ±12.4 week to week (+0.32× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 35%
Tendencies room →Giants6.9%leaned — stayed blocked · −8.0 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−1.04× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Falcons14.3%right on their number · +2.8 vs their 11.5%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+0.38× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
NYG's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 12.2 pts, 15.8 points above their season mean of -3.6 pts and 2.1 times their own 7.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Giants
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · NYG
22/39, 210 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-21.5 expected points added · -8.8% completion over expected
Passing · ATL
18/27, 202 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
6.5 expected points added · -3.1% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Tyrone Tracy banked 5.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan RobinsonRB · Committee Back | 24.3 | +2.8 | 75% | 72% | 8% | 0% | 22 car, 94 yd, 2 TD · 2/2, 9 yd |
| Tyrone TracyRB · Committee Back | 16.9 | +5.9 | 63% | 57% | 11% | 0% | 7 car, 26 yd · 4/4, 43 yd, 1 TD |
| Malik NabersWR · Alpha Receiver | 13.8 | −7.9 | 90% | 95% | 38% | 53% | 7/14, 68 yd |
| Darnell MooneyWR · Featured Receiver | 13.2 | +3.1 | 90% | 83% | 23% | 46% | 5/6, 82 yd |
| Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · Alpha Receiver | 13.2 | −4.3 | 93% | 98% | 32% | 19% | 7/12, 62 yd |
| Drake LondonWR · Alpha Receiver | 10.9 | −4.8 | 73% | 76% | 31% | 35% | 5/8, 59 yd |
| Drew LockQB · Starter QB | 6.5 | −8.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/39, 210 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 1 car, 1 yd |
| Michael PenixQB · Starter QB | 6.4 | −8.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 18/27, 202 yd, 1 INT · 4 car, 3 yd |
| Ray-Ray McCloudWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.7 | −0.8 | 91% | 90% | 15% | 7% | 1 car, 8 yd · 3/4, 19 yd |
| Tyler AllgeierRB | 4.1 | −3.7 | 27% | 24% | 4% | 0% | 11 car, 22 yd · 1/1, 9 yd |
| Darius SlaytonWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.7 | −0.9 | 85% | 86% | 5% | 14% | 1 car, 6 yd · 1/2, 21 yd |
| Chris BlairWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.7 | +0.4 | 37% | 28% | 4% | 11% | 1/1, 17 yd |
| Jalin HyattWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | −1.2 | 20% | 17% | 5% | 19% | 1/2, 9 yd |
| Kyle PittsTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −3.6 | 45% | 59% | 8% | 7% | 1/2, 7 yd |
| Daniel BellingerTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −0.8 | 66% | 67% | 5% | 2% | 1/2, 5 yd |
| Devin SingletaryRB | 1.2 | −0.5 | 22% | 21% | 0% | — | 4 car, 12 yd |
| Eric GrayRB | 1.2 | −0.2 | 15% | 21% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 2 yd |
| Ross DwelleyTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Avery WilliamsRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Charlie WoernerTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.9 | 51% | 34% | 8% | 3% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(8:05) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass short left intended for 17-W.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 3-J.Bates [55-K.Elliss] at ATL 45. 3-J.Bates for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NYG-1-M.Nabers, Illegal Shift, declined.
Q2 8:05 · Giants · 2nd & 7 at ATL 48 · gained nothing · -9.37 EP · −29.6% win probability
156 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 169 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 156 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 164. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
5 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 86 yards from the ATL 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Giants6
Falcons0Giants7Falcons0Giants7Falcons3How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
Giants7Falcons9Giants7Falcons10Giants7Falcons16Giants7Falcons17How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, dropped.
Giants7Falcons23Giants7Falcons24Giants7Falcons30Giants7Falcons31Giants7Falcons34Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Giants at Falcons, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Lock | 22/39 | 210 | 1 | 2 | 3 | −21.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrone Tracy | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Devin Singletary | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Darius Slayton | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Nabers | 7 | 14 | 68 | 0 | 38% | −6.1 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 7 | 12 | 62 | 0 | 32% | −10.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Muasau | 3 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ty Summers | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dane Belton | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jason Pinnock |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Penix | 18/27 | 202 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +6.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_16_NYG_ATL
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Falcons closed -9.5 and covered, winning by 27.
Total closed 42.5; the game landed 41 — under by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
| Drew Lock | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Tyrone Tracy | 4 | 4 | 43 | 1 | 11% | +6.0 |
| Darius Slayton | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 5% | −1.2 |
| Jalin Hyatt | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 5% | −0.3 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 5% | +0.9 |
| Eric Gray | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3% | −0.4 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Micah McFadden | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cory Durden | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andru Phillips | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carlos Basham | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Raheem Layne | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kayvon Thibodeaux | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 22 |
| 94 |
| 4.3 |
| 2 |
| +2.3 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 11 | 22 | 2.0 | 0 | −2.7 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Michael Penix | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 | −1.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnell Mooney | 5 | 6 | 82 | 0 | 23% | +4.7 |
| Drake London | 5 | 8 | 59 | 0 | 31% | +4.0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 15% | +0.1 |
| Chris Blair | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 4% | +1.0 |
| Bijan Robinson | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 8% | +1.1 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 4% | +0.7 |
| Kyle Pitts | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 8% | −3.2 |
| Charlie Woerner | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8% | −1.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaden Elliss | 2 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Hughes | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Arnold Ebiketie | 2 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dee Alford | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| J.D. Bertrand | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Simmons | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Onyemata | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kentavius Street | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jessie Bates | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Zach Harrison | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
