2024 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 22, 2024 · FedExField

Philadelphia Eagles

Washington CommandersWinner

PHI -4 upsetO 47 ✓32°FEagles closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Washington Commanders 36–33 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:10, WAS +50% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:10PHI 33 — WAS 34WAS ball · 2nd & 9PHI 74%

(:10) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 80-J.Crowder for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:10WAS +50% win prob(:10) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 80-J.Crowder for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 9:18WAS +26% win prob(9:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep right to 14-O.Zaccheaus for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on PHI, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, declined.
Q4 · 6:10WAS +22% win prob(6:10) (Shotgun) 7-K.Pickett pass short right to 11-A.Brown to WAS 35 for 15 yards (4-F.Luvu).
Q4 · 3:06PHI +20% win prob(3:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle intended for 12-L.McCaffrey INTERCEPTED by 32-R.Blankenship (2-D.Slay) [19-J.Sweat] at PHI 45. 32-R.Blankenship to WAS 27 for 28 yards (26-J.McNichols).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 11:18PHI Touchdown
(11:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PHI 7 — WAS 0
Q1 · 7:11PHI Touchdown
(7:11) (Shotgun) 7-K.Pickett pass short right to 11-A.Brown for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PHI 14 — WAS 0
Q1 · 3:16WAS Touchdown
(3:16) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 80-J.Crowder for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PHI 14 — WAS 7
Q1 · 2:29PHI Touchdown
(2:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley left end for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PHI 21 — WAS 7
Q2 · 6:51WAS Touchdown
(6:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep left to 17-T.McLaurin for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PHI 21 — WAS 14
Q3 · 11:42PHI Field goal
(11:42) 4-J.Elliott 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.
Score after this play: PHI 24 — WAS 14
Q3 · 3:14PHI Field goal
(3:14) 4-J.Elliott 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.
Score after this play: PHI 27 — WAS 14
Q4 · 13:37WAS Touchdown
(13:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 14-O.Zaccheaus for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PHI 27 — WAS 21
Q4 · 9:18WAS Touchdown
(9:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep right to 14-O.Zaccheaus for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on PHI, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, declined. (kick good)
Score after this play: PHI 27 — WAS 28
Q4 · 3:53PHI Field goal
(3:53) 4-J.Elliott 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.
Score after this play: PHI 30 — WAS 28
Q4 · 2:02PHI Field goal
(2:02) 4-J.Elliott 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.
Score after this play: PHI 33 — WAS 28
Q4 · 0:10WAS Touchdown
(:10) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 80-J.Crowder for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: PHI 33 — WAS 36

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Eagles	Commanders
Offensive plays	71	64
Total yards	338	370 (edge)
Yards per play	4.8	5.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.03 (edge)	-0.07
Success rate	37%	41% (edge)
Dropback rate	52%	70%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.03	0.19 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.09 (edge)	-0.68
Third downs	3/16	7/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	15	21 (edge)
Sacks taken	4	1 (edge)
Turnovers	3 (edge)	5

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · WAS

Jayden DanielsQB

24/39, 258 yds, 5 TD, 2 INT

4.4 expected points added · -2.3% completion over expected

Passing · PHI

Kenny PickettQB

14/24, 143 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-0.6 expected points added · -0.7% completion over expected

Rushing · PHI

Saquon BarkleyRB

29 att, 150 yds, 2 TD

4.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · WAS

Jayden DanielsQB

9 att, 81 yds, 0 TD

10.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PHI

A.J. BrownWR

8/15 for 97 yds, 1 TD

60% of team targets · 1.0 expected points added

Receiving · WAS

Olamide ZaccheausWR

5/8 for 70 yds, 2 TD

22% of team targets · 3.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	WAS	WAS 40	5	9	0:49	Turnover on downs
2	PHI	WAS 49	9	44	2:56	Touchdown +7
3	WAS	PHI 43	2	0	0:14	Fumble
4	PHI	PHI 43	9	67	3:53	Touchdown +7
5	WAS	WAS 22	5	-1	1:56	Punt
6	PHI	PHI 15	2	3	0:42	Interception
7	WAS	PHI 25	5	14	1:18	Touchdown +7
8	PHI	PHI 31	4	69	0:54	Touchdown +7
9	WAS	WAS 33	9	32	4:02	Fumble
10	PHI	PHI 10	5	52	2:47	Punt
11	WAS	WAS 4	9	96	3:43	Touchdown +7
12	PHI	PHI 25	5	9	1:52	Punt
13	WAS	WAS 24	4	6	1:47	Punt
14	PHI	PHI 27	4	9	1:15	Punt
15	WAS	WAS 33	1	0	0:08	Interception
16	PHI	WAS 49	5	11	1:44	Missed field goal
17	PHI	PHI 25	7	8	3:20	Field goal +3
18	WAS	WAS 37	3	2	0:16	Fumble
19	PHI	PHI 42	14	14	8:13	Field goal +3
20	WAS	WAS 39	13	61	4:38	Touchdown +7
21	PHI	PHI 31	7	13	2:23	Fumble
22	WAS	WAS 13	8	87	2:04	Touchdown +7
23	PHI	PHI 34	13	34	5:18	Field goal +3
24	WAS	WAS 35	4	5	0:55	Interception
25	PHI	WAS 27	4	5	0:55	Field goal +3
26	WAS	WAS 43	11	59	1:52	Touchdown +8
27	PHI	—	1	0	0:06	Fumble

12 of 27 drives ended in points. Longest march: Commanders gained 96 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Philadelphia Eagles

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kenny Pickett	14/24	143	1	1	3	-0.6
Jalen Hurts	1/4	11	0	0	0	-2.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Saquon Barkley	29	150	5.2	2	4.1
Jalen Hurts	3	41	13.7	0	4.4
Kenny Pickett	3	13	4.3	0	-0.4
Kenneth Gainwell	4	7	1.8	0	-1.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
A.J. Brown	8	15	97	1	60%	1.0
DeVonta Smith	6	8	51	0	32%	6.0
Kenneth Gainwell	1	1	6	0	4%	-0.7
Saquon Barkley	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Nakobe Dean	6	6	0.0	0	0
Zack Baun	6	3	0.0	0	0
Darius Slay	5	2	0.0	0	3
Reed Blankenship	5	0	0.0	1	1
Tristin McCollum	3	2	0.0	0	0
Oren Burks	1	3	0.0	0	0
Cooper DeJean	1	3	0.0	0	0
Jalen Carter	2	1	0.0	0	0
Nolan Smith	2	1	1.0	0	0
Kenneth Gainwell	2	0	0.0	0	0

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jayden Daniels	24/39	258	5	2	1	4.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Jayden Daniels	9	81	9.0	10.3
Brian Robinson	10	24	2.4	-15.4
Chris Rodriguez	3	5	1.7	-2.3
Jeremy McNichols	2	3	1.5	1.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Olamide Zaccheaus	5	8	70	2	22%	3.8
Terry McLaurin	5	6	60	1	17%	3.5
Dyami Brown	4	5	56	0	14%	-2.2
Brian Robinson	2	3	17	0	8%	0.6
Jeremy McNichols	4	4	15	0	11%	-1.4
Jamison Crowder	2	4	15	2	11%	5.0
Luke McCaffrey	1	3	13	0	8%	-6.8
Zach Ertz	1	2	12	0	6%	0.3
John Bates	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Bobby Wagner	8	1	0.0	0	1
Mike Sainristil	4	3	0.0	0	0
Frankie Luvu	2	4	0.0	1	1
Jeremy Chinn	3	3	0.0	0	0
Jer'Zhan Newton	5	1	1.0	0	0
Marshon Lattimore	3	1	0.0	0	3
Quan Martin	1	3	0.0	0	0
Carl Davis	1	2	0.0	0	0
Sheldon Day	2	1	0.0	0	1
Daron Payne	1	2	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PHI -4
Closing total: 47
PHI moneyline: -218
WAS moneyline: +180

Eagles closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 47; the game landed 69 — over by 22.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FedExField
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 32°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: PHI 7 days · WAS 7 days
Coaches: Nick Sirianni vs Dan Quinn

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.