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Philadelphia Eagles 33 at Washington Commanders 36. Final.
Eagles -4 upset
The verdict · 2024 Week 16
Washington Commanders 36, Eagles 33 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:10, 2nd and 9, on Jamison Crowder — 50.4 win-probability points to the Commanders on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:10 · 2nd and 9
Jamison Crowder
Commanders
(:10) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 80-J.Crowder for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
O 47 ✓
30°F
Eagles closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Washington Commanders 36–33 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:10, Commanders +50.4% win probability on one snap.
50.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Olamide ZaccheausCommandersQ4 9:18(9:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep right to 14-O.Zaccheaus for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on PHI, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, declined.
26.3pts
A.J. BrownEaglesQ4 6:10(6:10) (Shotgun) 7-K.Pickett pass short right to 11-A.Brown to WAS 35 for 15 yards (4-F.Luvu).
22.4pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — +0.09 expected points per carry, against Commanders at -0.68 expected points per carry.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Commanders won this one — 7 of 13 on third down, against Eagles at 3 of 16 on third down.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — 3 giveaways, against Commanders at 5 giveaways.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Commanders won this one — +0.19 expected points per dropback, against Eagles at -0.03 expected points per dropback.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 23 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Commandershigher on Eagles177 of 188 plays carry both curves
(:10) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 80-J.Crowder for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +50.4 for CommandersExpected points +3.77 for CommandersThe model had Commanders 13 points higher than the market did.play 185
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:10WAS +50% win prob(:10) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 80-J.Crowder for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 9:18WAS +26% win prob(9:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep right to 14-O.Zaccheaus for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on PHI, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, declined.
4th · 6:10WAS +22% win prob(6:10) (Shotgun) 7-K.Pickett pass short right to 11-A.Brown to WAS 35 for 15 yards (4-F.Luvu).
4th · 3:06PHI +20% win prob(3:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle intended for 12-L.McCaffrey INTERCEPTED by 32-R.Blankenship (2-D.Slay) [19-J.Sweat] at PHI 45. 32-R.Blankenship to WAS 27 for 28 yards (26-J.McNichols).
4th · 4:47PHI +15% win prob(4:47) (Shotgun) 7-K.Pickett sacked at WAS 40 for -6 yards (96-J.Holmes).
4th · 3:53WAS +15% win prob(3:53) 4-J.Elliott 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jamison Crowder's 9-yard touchdown catch with 0:10 left in the 4th put Washington Commanders ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Commanders ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.68 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.03Eagles: +0.03 expected points added per play
−0.07Commanders: −0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.03Eagles: −0.03 expected points added per play
+0.19Commanders: +0.19 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.09Eagles: +0.09 expected points added per play
−0.68Commanders: −0.68 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 71 snaps at a 52% dropback rate against Commanders’s 64 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 5, Commanders 6.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
WAS's blitz rate sent, 62.2%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 16 — 14.2 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 45.5% in week 8.
2.4 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 2.7-swing turn from week 15.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.7 points.
high through week 16Against their seasonTendencies
WAS's early-down pass rate, 72.3%, is past their previous high of 67.4% in week 6 — the highest of their 15 charted games through week 16.
47 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.2 points.
PHI's blitz rate sent turned over: 15.4% in week 15 against 35.6% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
45 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 15 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.9 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (−1.14× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Commanders18.9%
inside their normal wobble · +4.5 vs their 14.4%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+0.73× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
NoteWAS's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 62.2%, 25.3 points above their season mean of 36.9% and 2.4 times their own 10.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
68Jordan MailataT · Every snap100%74 snaps
69Landon DickersonG · Every snap100%74 snaps
77Mekhi BectonT · Every snap100%74 snaps
51Cam JurgensG · Every snap100%74 snaps
11A.J. BrownWR · Every snap100%74 snaps
65Lane JohnsonT · Every snap100%74 snaps
81Grant CalcaterraTE · Full-time89%66 snaps
7Kenny PickettQB · Full-time84%62 snaps
6DeVonta SmithWR · Full-time82%61 snaps
26Saquon BarkleyRB · Full-time82%61 snaps
83Jahan DotsonWR · Heavy rotation64%47 snaps
47C.J. UzomahTE · Rotational41%30 snaps
14Kenneth GainwellRB · Situational19%14 snaps
1Jalen HurtsQB · Situational16%12 snaps
89Johnny WilsonWR · Situational12%9 snaps
84E.J. JenkinsTE · Situational8%6 snaps
48Khari BlasingameFB · Situational1%1 snap
56Tyler SteenG · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Nick GatesCEli RicksCBTrevor KeeganGTanner McKeeQBDarian KinnardTBritain CoveyWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Ainias SmithWR
Washington Commanders
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
67Nick AllegrettiG · Every snap100%68 snaps
76Sam CosmiG · Every snap100%68 snaps
74Brandon ColemanT · Every snap100%68 snaps
63Tyler BiadaszC · Every snap100%68 snaps
5Jayden DanielsQB · Every snap100%68 snaps
17Terry McLaurinWR · Full-time91%62 snaps
71Andrew WylieG · Full-time85%58 snaps
86Zach ErtzTE · Heavy rotation71%48 snaps
14Olamide ZaccheausWR · Heavy rotation69%47 snaps
2Dyami BrownWR · Heavy rotation66%45 snaps
8Brian RobinsonRB · Heavy rotation63%43 snaps
80Jamison CrowderWR · Rotational46%31 snaps
87John BatesTE · Rotational35%24 snaps
26Jeremy McNicholsRB · Rotational28%19 snaps
78Cornelius LucasT · Situational15%10 snaps
12Luke McCaffreyWR · Situational13%9 snaps
36Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB · Situational10%7 snaps
82Ben SinnottTE · Situational7%5 snaps
Inactive · 6
Michael DavisCBPhidarian MathisDTChris PaulGJeff DriskelQBDominique HamptonSSK.J. OsbornWR
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Eagles←Commanders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Daniels pass+39% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:10) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 80-J.Crowder for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:10 · Commanders · 2nd & goal at PHI 9 · gained 9 · +3.77 EP · +38.8% win probability
175 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 188 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 175 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 183. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 96 yards from the WAS 4 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
188 of 188 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
188
EPA per play
+0.08
Success rate
45%
Yards
708
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49-0.0067%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46-0.0959%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19+0.2921%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.0136%
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Commanders1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR3——
Commanders2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Eagles2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Eagles2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
188 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
188 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter51 plays
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Commanders 40 to the Commanders 49
Eagles6Commanders0
Eagles7Commanders0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Commanders 49 to the Commanders 2
Fumble lost2 plays
Eagles13Commanders0
Eagles14Commanders0
Touchdown10 plays, from the Eagles 43 to the Commanders 4
Punt5 plays
Intercepted2 plays, from the Eagles 15 to the Eagles 18
Eagles14Commanders6
Eagles14Commanders7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 6
Eagles20Commanders7
Eagles21Commanders7
Touchdown4 plays, from the Eagles 31 to the Eagles 32
The period ended6 plays, from the Commanders 33 to the Commanders 46
2nd quarter43 plays
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Eagles 44 to the Eagles 16
Punt6 plays, from the Eagles 10 to the Commanders 43
How the play was built
Empty backfield, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxTwo defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
Eagles21Commanders13
Eagles21Commanders14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Commanders 4 to the Eagles 32
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 34
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 24 to the Commanders 30
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 27 to the Eagles 36
Intercepted1 play
The period ended7 plays, from the Commanders 49 to the Commanders 38
3rd quarter38 plays
Eagles24Commanders14
Field goal9 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Commanders 4
Fumble lost3 plays
Eagles27Commanders14
Field goal16 plays, from the Eagles 42 to the Commanders 11
The period ended10 plays, from the Commanders 39 to the Eagles 40
4th quarter56 plays
Eagles27Commanders20
Eagles27Commanders21
Touchdown4 plays, from the Eagles 12 to the Eagles 4
Punt7 plays, from the Eagles 31 to the Eagles 44
How the play was built
Empty backfield, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.9 seconds
Eagles27Commanders27
Eagles27Commanders28
Touchdown8 plays, from the Commanders 13 to the Eagles 49
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.6 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Eagles30Commanders28
Field goal14 plays, from the Eagles 34 to the Commanders 32
How the play was built
Empty backfield, no huddle, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.8 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Commanders 35 to the Commanders 40
Eagles33Commanders28
Field goal5 plays, from the Commanders 27 to the Commanders 22
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Eagles33Commanders34
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Eagles33Commanders36
Touchdown12 plays, from the Commanders 43 to the Eagles 9
Fumble lost1 play
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Eagles -4
Closing total
47
Eagles moneyline
-218
Commanders moneyline
+180
Eagles closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 47; the game landed 69 — over by 22.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
FedExField
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Freezing, 30°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 8 mph out of the north-west; clear.
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
Eagles 7 days · Commanders 7 days
Coaches
Nick Sirianni vs Dan Quinn
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
4th · 7:39
WAS +13% win prob
(7:39) (Shotgun) 7-K.Pickett pass short left to 6-D.Smith to PHI 47 for 4 yards (0-M.Sainristil; 20-Q.Martin).
4th · 0:06PHI +12% win prob47-Z.Gonzalez kicks 57 yards from WAS 35 to PHI 8. 14-K.Gainwell to PHI 20 for 12 yards. Lateral to 29-A.Maddox to PHI 24 for 4 yards (20-Q.Martin; 39-J.Reaves). FUMBLES (20-Q.Martin), RECOVERED by WAS-25-B.St-Juste at PHI 24.
