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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 16 · Sat, Dec 21, 2024 · M&T Bank Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 16
It turned at Q3 5:19, 2nd and 11, on Cordarrelle Patterson — 13.6 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Baltimore Ravens 34–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 5:19, Steelers +13.6% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 5:19 · 2nd and 11
Cordarrelle Patterson
Steelers
(5:19) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 84-C.Patterson for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Ravens won this one — 53% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Steelers at 37% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.34 expected points per dropback, against Steelers at -0.28 expected points per dropback.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Ravens won this one — +0.18 expected points per snap, against Steelers at -0.18 expected points per snap.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Ravens won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Steelers at 5 chunk plays.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 9.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
(5:19) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 84-C.Patterson for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Mark Andrews's 7-yard touchdown catch with 1:53 left in the 3rd put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Mark Andrews7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Lamar JacksonLead never changed again+717–249 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Steelerscategory by categoryRavens
Ravens ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 59 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Ravens’s 59 at 42%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 2, Ravens 5.
Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs -0.18.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
PIT's sack or hit rate, 4.0%, is past their previous low of 7.1% in week 6 — the lowest of their 15 charted games through week 16.
25 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points. · −1.6σ from their own normal
PIT's play-action rate turned over: 11.5% in week 15 against 37.8% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.3 points. · +0.9σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 11 pts
Over Expected room →Steelers-3.7 ptsright on their number · +2.6 vs their -6.3 pts, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.39× that swing) · 59 snaps
Ravens-9.0 ptsright on their number · −1.3 vs their -7.7 pts, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−0.20× that swing) · 59 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 13% to 81%
Tendencies room →Steelers54.2%inside their normal wobble · +6.0 vs their 48.2%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (+0.73× that swing) · 48 early downs
Ravens38.0%inside their normal wobble · −9.1 vs their 47.1%, and they swing ±13.2 week to week (−0.69× that swing) · 50 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 58%
Tendencies room →Steelers37.8%inside their normal wobble · +10.9 vs their 26.9%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (+0.89× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Ravens36.0%inside their normal wobble · +10.6 vs their 25.4%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (+0.91× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29% to 109%
Fourth Down room →Steelers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 31.3%.
Ravens—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 40.0%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 62%
Tendencies room →Steelers48.0%leaned — sent pressure · +18.4 vs their 29.6%, and they swing ±12.5 week to week (+1.48× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Ravens13.5%inside their normal wobble · −9.2 vs their 22.7%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (−0.80× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 36%
Tendencies room →Steelers4.0%leaned — stayed blocked · −12.6 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−1.65× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Ravens13.5%inside their normal wobble · −3.1 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−0.59× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
PIT's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 4.0%, 12.6 points below their season mean of 16.6% and 1.6 times their own 7.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · PIT
22/33, 217 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
-6.3 expected points added · +17.2% completion over expected
Passing · BAL
15/23, 207 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
7.1 expected points added · +0.8% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Isaiah Likely banked 6.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick HenryRB · Bell Cow Back | 20.9 | +3.6 | 74% | 72% | 9% | 0% | 24 car, 162 yd · 2/2, 27 yd |
| Lamar JacksonQB · Starter QB | 20.5 | +2.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 15/23, 207 yd, 3 TD, 1 INT · 9 car, 22 yd |
| Russell WilsonQB · Starter QB | 15.4 | +1.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/33, 217 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 3 car, 27 yd |
| Zay FlowersWR · Alpha Receiver | 15.3 | +0.5 | 87% | 96% | 35% | 50% | 1 car, 3 yd · 5/8, 100 yd |
| Jaylen WarrenRB · Committee Back | 14.2 | +1.2 | 67% | 68% | 19% | 4% | 12 car, 48 yd · 5/5, 44 yd |
| Mark AndrewsTE · Alpha Receiver | 13.8 | +0.1 | 76% | 88% | 26% | 30% | 1 car, 1 yd · 4/6, 37 yd, 1 TD |
| Isaiah LikelyTE · Rotational Receiver | 11.9 | +6.5 | 66% | 72% | 13% | 10% | 3/3, 29 yd, 1 TD |
| Calvin AustinWR · Featured Receiver | 10.5 | +1.9 | 80% | 74% | 19% | 51% | 4/5, 65 yd |
| Rashod BatemanWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.4 | +2.2 | 81% | 84% | 13% | 10% | 1/3, 14 yd, 1 TD |
| Cordarrelle PattersonRB | 8.2 | +6.1 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| MyCole PruittTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.1 | +2.1 | 23% | 13% | 8% | 1% | 1/2, 1 yd, 1 TD |
| Mike WilliamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.4 | +1.2 | 37% | 45% | 12% | 7% | 3/3, 24 yd |
| Van JeffersonWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.7 | −0.5 | 78% | 74% | 12% | 16% | 2/3, 27 yd |
| Pat FreiermuthTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.6 | +0.3 | 68% | 76% | 12% | 8% | 3/3, 16 yd |
| Ben SkowronekWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.5 | +1.8 | 17% | 13% | 8% | 10% | 2/2, 25 yd |
| Najee HarrisRB · Committee Back | 4.2 | −1.3 | 28% | 21% | 4% | 0% | 9 car, 42 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Justice HillRB | 3.0 | +0.5 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Connor HeywardRB | 1.3 | +0.1 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Rasheen AliRB | 0.2 | −0.4 | 15% | 12% | 0% | — | 1 car, 2 yd |
| Patrick RicardRB | 0.0 | — | 27% | 20% | 0% | — | No touches. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(13:15) 3-R.Wilson pass short right intended for 81-M.Pruitt INTERCEPTED by 44-M.Humphrey [90-D.Ojabo] at PIT 37. 44-M.Humphrey for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 13:15 · Steelers · 2nd & 7 at PIT 36 · gained nothing · -8.16 EP · −12.2% win probability
153 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 162 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 153 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 157. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 96 yards from the BAL 4 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
162 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
162 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Steelers0
Ravens6Steelers0Ravens7Steelers6Ravens7Steelers7Ravens7How the play was built
Play action, no huddle, nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
Steelers7Ravens13Steelers7Ravens14Steelers7Ravens17Steelers10Ravens17How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
Steelers16Ravens17Steelers17Ravens17Steelers17Ravens23Steelers17Ravens24How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
Steelers17Ravens30Steelers17Ravens31Steelers17Ravens34Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Steelers at Ravens, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 22/33 | 217 | 2 | 1 | 3 | −6.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | 12 | 48 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Najee Harris | 9 | 42 | 4.7 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Russell Wilson |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Austin | 4 | 5 | 65 | 0 | 19% | +1.6 |
| Jaylen Warren | 5 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Queen | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Damontae Kazee | 7 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Heyward |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 15/23 | 207 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +7.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_16_PIT_BAL
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Ravens closed -7 and covered, winning by 17.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 51 — over by 6.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 3 |
| 27 |
| 9.0 |
| 0 |
| −3.8 |
| 19% |
| +1.1 |
| Van Jefferson | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 12% | +0.3 |
| Ben Skowronek | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 8% | +2.9 |
| Mike Williams | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 12% | +1.6 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 12% | −0.2 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 4% | +2.8 |
| Connor Heyward | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4% | +0.1 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8% | −7.5 |
| Najee Harris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| 2 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Minkah Fitzpatrick | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Isaiahh Loudermilk | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cory Trice | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Highsmith | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| T.J. Watt | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| James Pierre | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joey Porter | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 24 | 162 | 6.8 | 0 | +1.3 |
| Justice Hill | 2 | 30 | 15.0 | 0 | +1.7 |
| Lamar Jackson | 9 | 22 | 2.4 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Zay Flowers | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Rasheen Ali | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Mark Andrews | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers | 5 | 8 | 100 | 0 | 35% | +7.5 |
| Mark Andrews | 4 | 6 | 37 | 1 | 26% | +2.9 |
| Isaiah Likely | 3 | 3 | 29 | 1 | 13% | +2.8 |
| Derrick Henry | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 | 9% | +1.9 |
| Rashod Bateman | 1 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 13% | −4.4 |
| Justice Hill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roquan Smith | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Hamilton | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nnamdi Madubuike | 3 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Board | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Van Noy | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Stephens | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tavius Robinson | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malik Harrison | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ar'Darius Washington | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Travis Jones | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
