2024 Week 16 · Sat, Dec 21, 2024 · M&T Bank Stadium

Pittsburgh Steelers

Baltimore RavensWinner

BAL -7 ✓O 44.5 ✓15 mph windRavens closed -7 and covered, winning by 17.

Baltimore Ravens 34–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 5:19, BAL +14% win probability on one snap. Played in 15 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 5:19PIT 16 — BAL 17PIT ball · 2nd & 11BAL 78%

(5:19) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 84-C.Patterson for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 5:19BAL +14% win prob(5:19) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 84-C.Patterson for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 11:11PIT +9% win prob(11:11) (No Huddle) 3-R.Wilson scrambles right end to BAL 4 for 19 yards (29-A.Washington). FUMBLES (29-A.Washington), RECOVERED by BAL-53-K.Van Noy at BAL 4.
Q3 · 1:53BAL +9% win prob(1:53) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 13:15PIT +9% win prob(13:15) 3-R.Wilson pass short right intended for 81-M.Pruitt INTERCEPTED by 44-M.Humphrey [90-D.Ojabo] at PIT 37. 44-M.Humphrey for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 5:57BAL Touchdown
(5:57) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 80-I.Likely for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PIT 0 — BAL 7
Q2 · 15:00PIT Touchdown
(15:00) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 81-M.Pruitt for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PIT 7 — BAL 7
Q2 · 7:33BAL Touchdown
(7:33) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 7-R.Bateman for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PIT 7 — BAL 14
Q2 · 1:48BAL Field goal
(1:48) 9-J.Tucker 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Score after this play: PIT 7 — BAL 17
Q2 · 0:05PIT Field goal
(:05) 9-C.Boswell 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.
Score after this play: PIT 10 — BAL 17
Q3 · 5:19PIT Touchdown
(5:19) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 84-C.Patterson for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PIT 17 — BAL 17
Q3 · 1:53BAL Touchdown
(1:53) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PIT 17 — BAL 24
Q4 · 13:15BAL Touchdown
(13:15) 3-R.Wilson pass short right intended for 81-M.Pruitt INTERCEPTED by 44-M.Humphrey [90-D.Ojabo] at PIT 37. 44-M.Humphrey for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PIT 17 — BAL 31
Q4 · 3:14BAL Field goal
(3:14) 9-J.Tucker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Score after this play: PIT 17 — BAL 34

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Steelers	Ravens
Offensive plays	59	59
Total yards	315	421 (edge)
Yards per play	5.3	7.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.18	0.18 (edge)
Success rate	37%	53% (edge)
Dropback rate	63%	42%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.28	0.34 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.01	0.06 (edge)
Third downs	4/10	4/9 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	20	23 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	1 (edge)
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs -0.18.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PIT

Russell WilsonQB

22/33, 217 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-6.3 expected points added · +17.2% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

15/23, 207 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

7.1 expected points added · +0.8% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Derrick HenryRB

24 att, 162 yds, 0 TD

1.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PIT

Jaylen WarrenRB

12 att, 48 yds, 0 TD

-0.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BAL

Zay FlowersWR

5/8 for 100 yds, 0 TD

35% of team targets · 7.5 expected points added

Receiving · PIT

Calvin AustinWR

4/5 for 65 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 1.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BAL	BAL 30	9	28	4:09	Punt
2	PIT	PIT 3	4	8	1:51	Punt
3	BAL	PIT 41	7	41	3:08	Touchdown +7
4	PIT	PIT 27	12	73	5:56	Touchdown +7
5	BAL	BAL 30	7	12	1:24	Punt
6	PIT	PIT 44	5	52	2:35	Fumble
7	BAL	BAL 4	9	81	3:29	Touchdown +7
8	PIT	PIT 30	5	0	1:31	Punt
9	BAL	BAL 28	10	39	4:14	Field goal +3
10	PIT	PIT 30	10	37	1:43	Field goal +3
11	PIT	PIT 30	5	6	1:15	Punt
12	BAL	BAL 8	7	35	3:53	Punt
13	PIT	PIT 12	9	88	4:38	Touchdown +7
14	BAL	BAL 40	8	60	3:24	Touchdown +7
15	PIT	PIT 38	7	17	1:57	Turnover on downs
16	BAL	BAL 45	2	44	0:56	Interception
17	PIT	PIT 33	2	3	0:51	Defensive touchdown
18	PIT	PIT 30	9	24	3:47	Punt
19	BAL	BAL 8	11	81	6:09	Field goal +3
20	PIT	PIT 30	7	7	1:31	Punt
21	BAL	BAL 15	3	0	1:39	End of game

8 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Steelers gained 88 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Russell Wilson	22/33	217	2	1	3	-6.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Jaylen Warren	12	48	4.0	-0.3
Najee Harris	9	42	4.7	0.1
Russell Wilson	3	27	9.0	-3.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Calvin Austin	4	5	65	0	19%	1.6
Jaylen Warren	5	5	44	0	19%	1.1
Van Jefferson	2	3	27	0	12%	0.3
Ben Skowronek	2	2	25	0	8%	2.9
Mike Williams	3	3	24	0	12%	1.6
Pat Freiermuth	3	3	16	0	12%	-0.2
Cordarrelle Patterson	1	1	12	1	4%	2.8
Connor Heyward	1	1	3	0	4%	0.1
MyCole Pruitt	1	2	1	1	8%	-7.5
Najee Harris	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Patrick Queen	4	4	0.0	0	1
Damontae Kazee	7	0	0.0	0	0
Cameron Heyward	2	4	0.0	0	0
Minkah Fitzpatrick	2	4	0.0	1	2
Isaiahh Loudermilk	2	3	0.0	0	0
Cory Trice	3	2	0.0	0	0
Alex Highsmith	2	2	1.0	0	0
T.J. Watt	1	3	0.0	0	0
James Pierre	2	2	0.0	0	0
Joey Porter	3	0	0.0	0	0

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Lamar Jackson	15/23	207	3	1	1	7.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Derrick Henry	24	162	6.8	1.3
Justice Hill	2	30	15.0	1.7
Lamar Jackson	9	22	2.4	0.8
Zay Flowers	1	3	3.0	-0.2
Rasheen Ali	1	2	2.0	-0.5
Mark Andrews	1	1	1.0	0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Zay Flowers	5	8	100	0	35%	7.5
Mark Andrews	4	6	37	1	26%	2.9
Isaiah Likely	3	3	29	1	13%	2.8
Derrick Henry	2	2	27	0	9%	1.9
Rashod Bateman	1	3	14	1	13%	-4.4
Justice Hill	0	1	0	0	4%	-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Roquan Smith	5	5	0.0	0
Kyle Hamilton	5	3	0.0	1
Nnamdi Madubuike	3	3	0.5	0
Chris Board	1	4	0.0	0
Kyle Van Noy	2	3	1.5	0
Brandon Stephens	4	0	0.0	0
Tavius Robinson	1	3	0.0	0
Malik Harrison	1	2	0.0	0
Ar'Darius Washington	3	0	0.0	0
Travis Jones	1	2	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BAL -7
Closing total: 44.5
PIT moneyline: +275
BAL moneyline: -345

Ravens closed -7 and covered, winning by 17.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 51 — over by 6.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 35°F, wind 15 mph
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: PIT 6 days · BAL 6 days
Coaches: Mike Tomlin vs John Harbaugh

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.

Wind at 15 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.