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2024 Week 16 · Sat, Dec 21, 2024 · M&T Bank Stadium
Final
SteelersPittsburgh17
BY 17final margin
RavensBaltimore34
Pittsburgh Steelers 17 at Baltimore Ravens 34. Final.
Ravens -7 ✓O 44.5 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 16
Baltimore Ravens 34, Steelers 17 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q3 5:19, 2nd and 11, on Cordarrelle Patterson — 13.6 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 5:19 · 2nd and 11
Cordarrelle Patterson
Steelers
(5:19) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 84-C.Patterson for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Ravens closed -7 and covered, winning by 17.
Baltimore Ravens 34–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 5:19, Steelers +13.6% win probability on one snap.
13.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Russell WilsonRavensQ2 11:11(11:11) (No Huddle) 3-R.Wilson scrambles right end to BAL 4 for 19 yards (29-A.Washington). FUMBLES (29-A.Washington), RECOVERED by BAL-53-K.Van Noy at BAL 4.
9.1pts
Mark AndrewsRavensQ3 1:53(1:53) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8.8pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Ravens won this one — 53% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Steelers at 37% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.34 expected points per dropback, against Steelers at -0.28 expected points per dropback.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Ravens won this one — +0.18 expected points per snap, against Steelers at -0.18 expected points per snap.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Ravens won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Steelers at 5 chunk plays.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ravenshigher on Steelers155 of 162 plays carry both curves
(5:19) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 84-C.Patterson for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −13.6 for RavensExpected points −2.76 for RavensThe model had Steelers 10 points higher than the market did.play 106
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 5:19BAL +14% win prob(5:19) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 84-C.Patterson for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 11:11PIT +9% win prob(11:11) (No Huddle) 3-R.Wilson scrambles right end to BAL 4 for 19 yards (29-A.Washington). FUMBLES (29-A.Washington), RECOVERED by BAL-53-K.Van Noy at BAL 4.
3rd · 1:53BAL +9% win prob(1:53) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 13:15PIT +9% win prob(13:15) 3-R.Wilson pass short right intended for 81-M.Pruitt INTERCEPTED by 44-M.Humphrey [90-D.Ojabo] at PIT 37. 44-M.Humphrey for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 7:47BAL +6% win prob(7:47) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 19-C.Austin to BAL 24 for 16 yards (21-B.Stephens).
2nd · 9:01BAL +6% win prob(9:01) (Shotgun) 43-J.Hill left end pushed ob at PIT 45 for 25 yards (23-D.Kazee). BAL-43-J.Hill was injured during the play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Mark Andrews's 7-yard touchdown catch with 1:53 left in the 3rd put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
4th3:14Justin Tucker·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder J.Stout · snap N.Moore+317–34
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Steelerscategory by categoryRavens
Steelers0–9Ravens
315Total yards421
5.3Yards per play7.1
37%Success rate53%
40%Third-down rate44%
2Red-zone touchdowns3
5Explosive plays9
20First downs23
3Sacks taken1
2Turnovers1
The read
Ravens ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.18Steelers: −0.18 expected points added per play
+0.18Ravens: +0.18 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.28Steelers: −0.28 expected points added per play
+0.34Ravens: +0.34 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.01Steelers: −0.01 expected points added per play
+0.06Ravens: +0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 59 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Ravens’s 59 at 42%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 2, Ravens 5.
NoteRavens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs -0.18.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
PIT's play-action rate turned over: 11.5% in week 15 against 37.8% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 11 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −12.6 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−1.65× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Ravens13.5%
inside their normal wobble · −3.1 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−0.59× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
NotePIT's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 4.0%, 12.6 points below their season mean of 16.6% and 1.6 times their own 7.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Steelers←Ravens→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Wilson pass−12% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(13:15) 3-R.Wilson pass short right intended for 81-M.Pruitt INTERCEPTED by 44-M.Humphrey [90-D.Ojabo] at PIT 37. 44-M.Humphrey for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 13:15 · Steelers · 2nd & 7 at PIT 36 · gained nothing · -8.16 EP · −12.2% win probability
153 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 162 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 153 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 157. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 96 yards from the BAL 4 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
162 of 162 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
162
EPA per play
+0.04
Success rate
50%
Yards
733
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38+0.1066%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR27+0.7656%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR18-0.3522%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15-0.9247%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.8743%
Steelers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6-0.0750%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 1 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
162 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
162 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter32 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Ravens 30 to the Steelers 33
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 3 to the Steelers 11
Steelers0Ravens6
Steelers0Ravens7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Steelers 41 to the Steelers 6
The period ended11 plays, from the Steelers 27 to the Ravens 22
2nd quarter53 plays
Steelers6Ravens7
Steelers7Ravens7
Touchdown2 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Ravens 30 to the Ravens 47
How the play was built
Play action, no huddle, nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept clean
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Steelers 44 to the Ravens 23
Steelers7Ravens13
Steelers7Ravens14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Ravens 4 to the Steelers 14
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 30 to the Steelers 35
Steelers7Ravens17
Field goal11 plays, from the Ravens 28 to the Steelers 33
Steelers10Ravens17
Field goal11 plays, from the Steelers 30 to the Ravens 33
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 30 to the Steelers 36
Punt8 plays, from the Ravens 8 to the Ravens 39
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Steelers16Ravens17
Steelers17Ravens17
Touchdown9 plays, from the Steelers 12 to the Ravens 11
Steelers17Ravens23
Steelers17Ravens24
Touchdown8 plays, from the Ravens 40 to the Steelers 7
The period ended7 plays, from the Steelers 38 to the Ravens 46
4th quarter40 plays
Turnover on downs1 play
Intercepted2 plays, from the Ravens 45 to the Steelers 11
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
Steelers17Ravens30
Touchdown2 plays, from the Steelers 33 to the Steelers 36
Steelers17Ravens31
Punt10 plays, from the Steelers 30 to the Ravens 48
Steelers17Ravens34
Field goal13 plays, from the Ravens 8 to the Steelers 6
Punt7 plays, from the Steelers 30 to the Steelers 40
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Ravens -7
Closing total
44.5
Steelers moneyline
+275
Ravens moneyline
-345
Ravens closed -7 and covered, winning by 17.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 51 — over by 6.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cold, 34°F at kickoff; breezy at 13 mph out of the north-west; overcast.
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
Steelers 6 days · Ravens 6 days
Coaches
Mike Tomlin vs John Harbaugh
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
2nd · 7:33
BAL +6% win prob
(7:33) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 7-R.Bateman for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 14:08PIT +6% win prob(14:08) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle intended for 7-R.Bateman INTERCEPTED by 39-M.Fitzpatrick at PIT 8. 39-M.Fitzpatrick to PIT 33 for 25 yards (65-P.Mekari).
