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2024 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 22, 2024 · Hard Rock Stadium

San Francisco 49ers

17

Miami DolphinsWinner

29

SF -2 upsetO 44 ✓

Miami Dolphins 29–17. Biggest swing: Q4 2:00, SF +27% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3MIA ↑SF ↓
Q4 · 2:00SF 17 — MIA 22SF ball · 1st & 10MIA 65%

(2:00) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle intended for 15-J.Jennings INTERCEPTED by 4-K.Kohou [93-C.Campbell] at MIA 38. 4-K.Kohou pushed ob at SF 46 for 16 yards (85-G.Kittle). The Replay Official reviewed the runne

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 2:00SF +27% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle intended for 15-J.Jennings INTERCEPTED by 4-K.Kohou [93-C.Campbell] at MIA 38. 4-K.Kohou pushed ob at SF 46 for 16 yards (85-G.Kittle). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle intended for 15-J.Jennings INTERCEPTED by 4-K.Kohou [93-C.Campbell] at MIA 38. 4-K.Kohou to MIA 38 for no gain (15-J.Jennings).
  2. Q3 · 5:56SF +13% win prob(5:56) 4-J.Moody 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-40-P.O'Donnell.
  3. Q2 · 1:49MIA +12% win prob(1:49) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 14-R.Pearsall to MIA 7 for 8 yards (5-J.Ramsey).
  4. Q2 · 0:50SF +10% win prob(:50) 4-J.Moody 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-40-P.O'Donnell.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 3:34MIA Field goal

    (3:34) 7-J.Sanders 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    Score after this play: SF 0 — MIA 3
  2. Q2 · 14:22SF Touchdown

    (14:22) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 1-D.Samuel for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 7 — MIA 3
  3. Q2 · 9:44MIA Field goal

    (9:44) 7-J.Sanders 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    Score after this play: SF 7 — MIA 6
  4. Q2 · 3:22MIA Touchdown

    (3:22) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 10-T.Hill for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 7 — MIA 13
  5. Q2 · 0:50SF Field goal

    (:50) 4-J.Moody 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-40-P.O'Donnell.

    Score after this play: SF 10 — MIA 13
  6. Q3 · 11:01MIA Field goal

    (11:01) 7-J.Sanders 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    Score after this play: SF 10 — MIA 16
  7. Q3 · 1:11MIA Field goal

    (1:11) 7-J.Sanders 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    Score after this play: SF 10 — MIA 19
  8. Q4 · 12:05SF Touchdown

    (12:05) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 82-E.Saubert for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 17 — MIA 19
  9. Q4 · 2:13MIA Field goal

    (2:13) 7-J.Sanders 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    Score after this play: SF 17 — MIA 22
  10. Q4 · 1:44MIA Touchdown

    (1:44) 28-D.Achane right tackle for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 17 — MIA 29

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric49ersDolphins
Offensive plays5963
Total yards374382 (edge)
Yards per play6.3 (edge)6.1
Expected points added / play0.060.16 (edge)
Success rate49%51% (edge)
Dropback rate75%54%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.150.17 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.200.16 (edge)
Third downs5/12 (edge)4/12
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)7 (edge)5
First downs gained on snaps1919
Sacks taken30 (edge)
Turnovers10 (edge)

Dolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs 0.06.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

Brock PurdyQB

26/40, 313 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

4.9 expected points added · -1.4% completion over expected

Passing · MIA

Tua TagovailoaQB

22/34, 215 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

5.7 expected points added · +0.8% completion over expected

Rushing · MIA

Devon AchaneRB

17 att, 120 yds, 1 TD

7.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIA

Raheem MostertRB

8 att, 31 yds, 0 TD

-3.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SF

George KittleTE

8/9 for 106 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 6.9 expected points added

Receiving · SF

Deebo SamuelWR

7/9 for 96 yds, 1 TD

24% of team targets · 10.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1SFSF 30591:30Punt
2MIAMIA 106122:56Punt
3SFSF 286193:04Punt
4MIAMIA 308444:00Field goal +3
5SFSF 3012654:16Touchdown +7
6MIAMIA 3112594:34Field goal +3
7SFSF 30511:47Punt
8MIAMIA 329684:33Touchdown +7
9SFSF 3010672:33Field goal +3
10MIAMIA 305170:47End of half
11MIAMIA 309294:03Field goal +3
12SFSF 3010575:04Missed field goal
13MIAMIA 319554:45Field goal +3
14SFSF 4011604:06Touchdown +7
15MIAMIA 307152:31Punt
16SFSF 105272:54Punt
17MIAMIA 297214:27Field goal +3
18SFSF 303170:14Interception
19MIAMIA 384620:20Touchdown +7
20SFSF 3010521:26Turnover on downs
21MIAMIA 18100:10End of game

10 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Dolphins gained 68 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Brock Purdy26/403132134.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Brock Purdy4266.501.3
Deebo Samuel5255.00-0.5
Patrick Taylor8243.00-2.5
Kyle Juszczyk166.00-0.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
George Kittle89106024%6.9
Deebo Samuel7996124%10.0
Jauan Jennings4651016%-2.0
Ricky Pearsall4437011%0.9
Kyle Juszczyk132008%-0.1
Eric Saubert11213%1.2
Patrick Taylor151014%-5.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Fred Warner650.000
Renardo Green630.001
Dee Winters620.001
Talanoa Hufanga140.000
Malik Mustapha320.000
Nick Bosa220.000
Deommodore Lenoir220.001
Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles210.001
Yetur Gross-Matos210.000
Jordan Elliott110.000

Miami Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Tua Tagovailoa22/342151005.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Devon Achane171207.117.9
Raheem Mostert8313.90-3.4
Jeffery Wilson2126.001.2
Alec Ingold144.000.0
Tua Tagovailoa2-1-0.50-0.9

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Devon Achane6770023%3.0
Jonnu Smith6662019%5.4
Tyreek Hill3729123%-1.2
Malik Washington3428013%1.9
Raheem Mostert221506%0.7
River Cracraft136010%-2.2
Durham Smythe12506%-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jordyn Brooks331.000
Jordan Poyer240.000
Anthony Walker420.000
Jalen Ramsey230.000
Emmanuel Ogbah230.000
Jevon Holland310.001
Kendall Fuller400.001
Zach Sieler311.000
Storm Duck210.000
Calais Campbell120.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
SF -2
Closing total
44
SF moneyline
-125
MIA moneyline
+105

49ers closed -2 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44; the game landed 46 — over by 2.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
73°F, wind 12 mph
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
SF 10 days · MIA 7 days
Coaches
Kyle Shanahan vs Mike McDaniel