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2024 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 22, 2024 · Hard Rock Stadium
Final
49ersSan Francisco17
BY 12final margin
DolphinsMiami29
San Francisco 49ers 17 at Miami Dolphins 29. Final.
49ers -2 upsetO 44 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 16
Miami Dolphins 29, 49ers 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 2:00, 1st and 10, on Kader Kohou — 27.1 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:00 · 1st and 10
Kader Kohou
Dolphins
(2:00) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle intended for 15-J.Jennings INTERCEPTED by 4-K.Kohou [93-C.Campbell] at MIA 38. 4-K.Kohou pushed ob at SF 46 for 16 yards (85-G.Kittle). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle intended for 15-J.Jennings INTERCEPTED by 4-K.Kohou [93-C.Campbell] at MIA 38. 4-K.Kohou to MIA 38 for no gain (15-J.Jennings).
49ers closed -2 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Miami Dolphins 29–17. Biggest swing: Q4 2:00, Dolphins +27.1% win probability on one snap.
27.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Ricky Pearsall49ersQ2 1:49(1:49) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 14-R.Pearsall to MIA 7 for 8 yards (5-J.Ramsey).
12.4pts
Jake MoodyDolphinsQ3 5:56(5:56) 4-J.Moody 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-40-P.O'Donnell.
13.2pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Dolphins won this one — +0.16 expected points per carry, against 49ers at -0.20 expected points per carry.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
49ers owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Dolphins at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
49ersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Dolphins won this one — no giveaways, against 49ers at 1 giveaway.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
49ers owned this one and still lost it — 7 chunk plays, against Dolphins at 5 chunk plays.
49ersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 25 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
MarketModelmodel higher on Dolphinshigher on 49ers165 of 175 plays carry both curves
(2:00) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle intended for 15-J.Jennings INTERCEPTED by 4-K.Kohou [93-C.Campbell] at MIA 38. 4-K.Kohou pushed ob at SF 46 for 16 yards (85-G.Kittle). The Replay Official reviewed the runne
Swing +27.1 for DolphinsExpected points +3.65 for DolphinsThe model had Dolphins 10 points higher than the market did.play 156
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:00SF +27% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle intended for 15-J.Jennings INTERCEPTED by 4-K.Kohou [93-C.Campbell] at MIA 38. 4-K.Kohou pushed ob at SF 46 for 16 yards (85-G.Kittle). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle intended for 15-J.Jennings INTERCEPTED by 4-K.Kohou [93-C.Campbell] at MIA 38. 4-K.Kohou to MIA 38 for no gain (15-J.Jennings).
3rd · 5:56SF +13% win prob(5:56) 4-J.Moody 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-40-P.O'Donnell.
2nd · 1:49MIA +12% win prob(1:49) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 14-R.Pearsall to MIA 7 for 8 yards (5-J.Ramsey).
2nd · 0:50SF +10% win prob(:50) 4-J.Moody 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-40-P.O'Donnell.
4th · 6:45SF +10% win prob(6:45) 40-P.O'Donnell punts 39 yards to MIA 24, Center-46-T.Pepper, out of bounds. PENALTY on SF-22-I.Yiadom, Illegal Substitution, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 24.
3rd · 8:38MIA +10% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tyreek Hill's 3-yard touchdown catch with 3:22 left in the 2nd put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st3:34Jason Sanders·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap J.McQuaide+30–3
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Dolphins, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.0649ers: +0.06 expected points added per play
+0.16Dolphins: +0.16 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.1549ers: +0.15 expected points added per play
+0.17Dolphins: +0.17 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.2049ers: −0.20 expected points added per play
+0.16Dolphins: +0.16 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 59 snaps at a 75% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 63 at 54%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 4, Dolphins 4.
NoteDolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs 0.06.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
SF's early-down pass rate, 73.9%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 16 — 0.4 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 65.9% in week 7.
46 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.5 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
SF's sack or hit rate, 2.9%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 16 — 1.1 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 5.3% in week 13.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points.
high through week 16Against their seasonOver Expected
SF's pass rate over expected, +8.9 pts, is past their previous high of +3.0 pts in week 5 — the highest of their 15 charted games through week 16.
59 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points.
SF's play-action rate turned over: 8.8% in week 15 against 34.1% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.1 points.
SF's blitz rate sent turned over: 35.7% in week 15 against 8.8% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 24 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.8 vs their 13.8%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−1.43× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Dolphins13.6%
right on their number · +1.0 vs their 12.6%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.17× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
NoteSF's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 34.1%, 14.7 points above their season mean of 19.4% and 1.6 times their own 9.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
77Dominick PuniG · Every snap100%64 snaps
68Colton McKivitzT · Every snap100%64 snaps
64Jake BrendelC · Every snap100%64 snaps
13Brock PurdyQB · Every snap100%64 snaps
85George KittleTE · Full-time98%63 snaps
15Jauan JenningsWR · Full-time94%60 snaps
1Deebo Samuel Sr.WR · Full-time83%53 snaps
32Patrick TaylorRB · Full-time80%51 snaps
65Aaron BanksG · Heavy rotation72%46 snaps
14Ricky PearsallWR · Heavy rotation72%46 snaps
76Jaylon MooreT · Heavy rotation52%33 snaps
74Spencer BurfordG · Rotational48%31 snaps
44Kyle JuszczykFB · Rotational34%22 snaps
63Nick ZakeljG · Rotational28%18 snaps
82Eric SaubertTE · Situational16%10 snaps
19Jacob CowingWR · Situational16%10 snaps
18Chris ConleyWR · Situational6%4 snaps
9Brayden WillisTE · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Rock Ya-SinCBRobert Beal Jr.DEKhalil DavisDTJoshua DobbsQBIsaac GuerendoRBTrent WilliamsTJake TongesTE
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Brandon AllenQBIsrael AbanikandaRB
Miami Dolphins
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
70Kendall LammT · Every snap100%67 snaps
65Robert JonesG · Every snap100%67 snaps
72Terron ArmsteadT · Every snap100%67 snaps
1Tua TagovailoaQB · Every snap100%67 snaps
55Aaron BrewerG · Every snap100%67 snaps
83Malik WashingtonWR · Full-time87%58 snaps
10Tyreek HillWR · Full-time84%56 snaps
28De'Von AchaneRB · Heavy rotation75%50 snaps
9Jonnu SmithTE · Heavy rotation55%37 snaps
77Isaiah WynnG · Heavy rotation51%34 snaps
74Liam EichenbergG · Rotational49%33 snaps
89Julian HillTE · Rotational46%31 snaps
30Alec IngoldFB · Rotational37%25 snaps
81Durham SmytheTE · Rotational36%24 snaps
31Raheem MostertRB · Rotational31%21 snaps
85River CracraftWR · Rotational27%18 snaps
23Jeff WilsonRB · Situational10%7 snaps
84Erik EzukanmaWR · Situational10%7 snaps
80Jack StollTE · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Andrew MeyerCEthan BonnerCBChanning TindallILBMohamed KamaraOLBDee EskridgeWRJaylen WaddleWR
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
49ers←Dolphins→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Purdy pass−19% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(2:00) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle intended for 15-J.Jennings INTERCEPTED by 4-K.Kohou [93-C.Campbell] at MIA 38. 4-K.Kohou pushed ob at SF 46 for 16 yards (85-G.Kittle). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle intended for 15-J.Jennings INTERCEPTED by 4-K.Kohou [93-C.Campbell] at MIA 38. 4-K.Kohou to MIA 38 for no gain (15-J.Jennings).
Q4 2:00 · 49ers · 1st & 10 at SF 47 · gained nothing · -3.65 EP · −19.0% win probability
163 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 175 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 170. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 70 yards from the SF 30 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
175 of 175 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
175
EPA per play
+0.10
Success rate
51%
Yards
755
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32-0.1272%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR27+0.2941%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR16-0.5581%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR14+0.0657%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.5156%
Dolphins2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7+0.8357%
49ers0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR4——
Dolphins1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
49ers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR4——
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
49ers2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the 49ers 39
Punt6 plays, from the Dolphins 10 to the Dolphins 24
Punt7 plays, from the 49ers 28 to the 49ers 44
49ers0Dolphins3
Field goal8 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the 49ers 26
The period ended12 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the Dolphins 18
2nd quarter49 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
49ers6Dolphins3
49ers7Dolphins3
Touchdown3 plays
49ers7Dolphins6
Field goal12 plays, from the Dolphins 31 to the 49ers 17
Punt7 plays
49ers7Dolphins12
49ers7Dolphins13
Touchdown9 plays, from the Dolphins 32 to the 49ers 3
49ers10Dolphins13
Field goal12 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the Dolphins 3
The period ended6 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Dolphins 41
3rd quarter35 plays
49ers10Dolphins16
Field goal10 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the 49ers 34
No good12 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the Dolphins 18
49ers10Dolphins19
Field goal9 plays, from the Dolphins 31 to the 49ers 15
The period ended4 plays, from the 49ers 40 to the 49ers 49
4th quarter52 plays
49ers16Dolphins19
49ers17Dolphins19
Touchdown8 plays, from the Dolphins 38 to the Dolphins 2
Punt8 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the 49ers 45
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 10 to the 49ers 37
49ers17Dolphins22
Field goal9 plays, from the Dolphins 29 to the 49ers 28
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the 49ers 47
49ers17Dolphins28
49ers17Dolphins29
Touchdown6 plays, from the Dolphins 38 to midfield
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the Dolphins 18
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
