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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:41 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 22, 2024 · AT&T Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 16
It turned at Q4 1:40, 1st and 10, on Rachaad White — 31.5 win-probability points to the Cowboys on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:40 · 1st and 10
Rachaad White
Cowboys
(1:40) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 1-R.White to TB 31 for 5 yards (26-D.Bland) [2-J.Lewis]. FUMBLES (26-D.Bland), RECOVERED by DAL-26-D.Bland at TB 31. ** Injury Update: DAL-27-A.Oruwariye has returned to the game.
Dallas Cowboys 26–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:40, Cowboys +31.5% win probability on one snap.
31.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Cowboys won this one — no giveaways, against Buccaneers at 4 giveaways.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — +0.21 expected points per carry, against Cowboys at -0.50 expected points per carry.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — 54% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cowboys at 38% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — 6 of 12 on third down, against Cowboys at 5 of 14 on third down.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 13.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cowboys.
(1:40) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 1-R.White to TB 31 for 5 yards (26-D.Bland) [2-J.Lewis]. FUMBLES (26-D.Bland), RECOVERED by DAL-26-D.Bland at TB 31. ** Injury Update: DAL-27-A.Oruwariye has returned to
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Brandon Aubrey's 58-yard field goal with 9:10 left in the 1st put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Brandon Aubrey58-yd field goal58-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap T.SiegLead never changed again+30–310 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Buccaneerscategory by categoryCowboys
Buccaneers ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Cowboys, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.50 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 70 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 53 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 3, Cowboys 2.
Buccaneers outgained Cowboys 410-321 but lost the turnover battle 4-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
TB's early-down pass rate turned over: 37.3% in week 15 against 68.4% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 3.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
57 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.1 points.
TB's sack or hit rate turned over: 24.3% in week 15 against 8.3% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.0 points.
DAL's early-down pass rate turned over: 37.5% in week 15 against 61.5% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
39 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Buccaneers-1.2 ptsright on their number · −1.2 vs their -0.0 pts, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.19× that swing) · 70 snaps
Cowboys2.6 ptsinside their normal wobble · +5.0 vs their -2.4 pts, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (+0.90× that swing) · 53 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 29% to 85%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers68.4%leaned — passed early · +13.2 vs their 55.2%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (+1.31× that swing) · 57 early downs
Cowboys61.5%right on their number · +3.9 vs their 57.7%, and they swing ±10.7 week to week (+0.36× that swing) · 39 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 42%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers8.0%leaned — dropped back clean · −11.3 vs their 19.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−1.30× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Cowboys13.9%inside their normal wobble · −4.5 vs their 18.4%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.60× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -54% to 128%
Fourth Down room →Buccaneers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 21.4%.
Cowboys0.0%leaned — took the kick · −41.5 vs their 41.5%, and they swing ±33.6 week to week (−1.23× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 91%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers36.1%right on their number · −7.8 vs their 43.9%, and they swing ±18.3 week to week (−0.43× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Cowboys24.0%leaned — sat back · −8.5 vs their 32.5%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−1.16× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 39%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers8.3%leaned — stayed blocked · −7.1 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−1.18× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Cowboys10.0%inside their normal wobble · −6.2 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−0.69× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
TB's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 68.4%, 13.2 points above their season mean of 55.2% and 1.3 times their own 10.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Dallas Cowboys
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · TB
31/43, 303 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
2.2 expected points added · +3.2% completion over expected
Passing · DAL
26/35, 292 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
9.3 expected points added · +5.0% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Ryan Miller banked 4.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker MayfieldQB · Starter QB | 22.3 | −0.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 31/43, 303 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 3 car, 42 yd |
| Bucky IrvingRB · Bell Cow Back | 18.2 | +1.9 | 57% | 44% | 7% | 0% | 16 car, 68 yd, 1 TD · 3/3, 24 yd |
| CeeDee LambWR · Featured Receiver | 17.5 | +3.3 | 55% | 69% | 24% | 38% | 7/8, 105 yd |
| Jalen McMillanWR · Rotational Receiver | 16.7 | +3.2 | 83% | 82% | 16% | 25% | 5/7, 57 yd, 1 TD |
| Cooper RushQB · Starter QB | 15.3 | +1.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 26/35, 292 yd, 1 TD · 3 car, -4 yd |
| Mike EvansWR · Featured Receiver | 11.9 | −3.8 | 81% | 76% | 19% | 31% | 5/8, 69 yd |
| Rachaad WhiteRB · Receiving Back | 11.0 | −1.8 | 50% | 54% | 19% | 0% | 3 car, 10 yd · 7/8, 50 yd |
| Jalen TolbertWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.0 | +4.1 | 28% | 36% | 9% | 21% | 2/3, 20 yd, 1 TD |
| Jake FergusonTE · Alpha Receiver | 10.0 | −4.1 | 58% | 69% | 27% | 7% | 6/9, 40 yd |
| Ryan MillerWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.7 | +4.9 | 46% | 48% | 5% | 4% | 2/2, 17 yd, 1 TD |
| Rico DowdleRB · Bell Cow Back | 8.1 | −4.1 | 77% | 69% | 9% | 0% | 13 car, 23 yd · 3/3, 28 yd |
| Payne DurhamTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.9 | −3.4 | 93% | 86% | 16% | 11% | 5/7, 29 yd |
| Brandin CooksWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.8 | +2.5 | 77% | 89% | 9% | 12% | 3/3, 48 yd |
| Ryan FlournoyWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.1 | +1.8 | 40% | 33% | 9% | 11% | 3/3, 41 yd |
| Ezekiel ElliottRB | 6.1 | +2.9 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Trey PalmerWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.1 | −3.0 | 18% | 16% | 9% | 22% | 2/4, 31 yd |
| Sterling ShepardWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.4 | −2.4 | 33% | 34% | 7% | 11% | 1 car, 14 yd · 1/3, 20 yd |
| Kavontae TurpinWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | −0.8 | 42% | 42% | 3% | 2% | 3 car, 11 yd · 1/1, 7 yd |
| Rakim JarrettWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | +0.1 | 18% | 18% | 2% | 1% | 1/1, 6 yd |
| Luke SchoonmakerTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | −0.1 | 33% | 22% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 3 yd |
| Brevyn Spann-FordTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 22% | 14% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Hunter LuepkeRB | 0.0 | −3.4 | 33% | 28% | 6% | 2% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Sean TuckerRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(1:40) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 1-R.White to TB 31 for 5 yards (26-D.Bland) [2-J.Lewis]. FUMBLES (26-D.Bland), RECOVERED by DAL-26-D.Bland at TB 31. ** Injury Update: DAL-27-A.Oruwariye has returned to the game.
Q4 1:40 · Buccaneers · 1st & 10 at TB 26 · gained 5 · -3.51 EP · −28.4% win probability
164 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 179 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 164 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 174. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 87 yards from the TB 13 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Buccaneers0
Cowboys3How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, dropped.
Buccaneers0Cowboys9Buccaneers0Cowboys10Buccaneers6Cowboys10Buccaneers7Cowboys10Buccaneers7Cowboys13Buccaneers7Cowboys19Buccaneers7Cowboys20Buccaneers13Cowboys20Buccaneers14Cowboys20Buccaneers14Cowboys23Buccaneers14Cowboys26Buccaneers17Cowboys26Buccaneers23Cowboys26Buccaneers24Cowboys26How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Buccaneers at Cowboys, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 31/43 | 303 | 2 | 1 | 4 | +2.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | 16 | 68 | 4.3 | 1 | +2.3 |
| Baker Mayfield | 3 | 42 | 14.0 | 0 | +3.1 |
| Sterling Shepard | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 5 | 8 | 69 | 0 | 19% | +2.8 |
| Jalen McMillan | 5 | 7 | 57 | 1 | 16% | +2.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Izien | 9 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lavonte David | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| YaYa Diaby | 4 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Edwards |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Rush | 26/35 | 292 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +9.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Dowdle |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_16_TB_DAL
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Buccaneers closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 50 — over by 2.5.
Conditions and crew
| Rachaad White | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 | +1.0 |
| Rachaad White | 7 | 8 | 50 | 0 | 19% | −2.6 |
| Trey Palmer | 2 | 4 | 31 | 0 | 9% | +1.5 |
| Payne Durham | 5 | 7 | 29 | 0 | 16% | +0.7 |
| Bucky Irving | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 7% | +2.1 |
| Sterling Shepard | 1 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 7% | −2.6 |
| Ryan Miller | 2 | 2 | 17 | 1 | 5% | +1.3 |
| Rakim Jarrett | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 2% | +0.3 |
| 1 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Tykee Smith | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vita Vea | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Greg Gaines | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamel Dean | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| J.J. Russell | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Logan Hall | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 |
| 23 |
| 1.8 |
| 0 |
| −8.7 |
| Kavontae Turpin | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 | +0.8 |
| Cooper Rush | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 | −2.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 7 | 8 | 105 | 0 | 24% | +5.6 |
| Brandin Cooks | 3 | 3 | 48 | 0 | 9% | +3.5 |
| Ryan Flournoy | 3 | 3 | 41 | 0 | 9% | +1.4 |
| Jake Ferguson | 6 | 9 | 40 | 0 | 27% | −3.6 |
| Rico Dowdle | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 9% | +1.7 |
| Jalen Tolbert | 2 | 3 | 20 | 1 | 9% | +5.7 |
| Kavontae Turpin | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3% | +0.4 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% | −1.0 |
| Hunter Luepke | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −1.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Vigil | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daron Bland | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Marist Liufau | 1 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Chauncey Golston | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jourdan Lewis | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Amani Oruwariye | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Micah Parsons | 4 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Donovan Wilson | 2 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Mazi Smith | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Linval Joseph | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
