2024 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 22, 2024 · AT&T Stadium

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Dallas CowboysWinner

TB -4.5 upsetO 47.5 ✓DomeBuccaneers closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Dallas Cowboys 26–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:40, TB +31% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:40TB 24 — DAL 26TB ball · 1st & 10DAL 64%

(1:40) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 1-R.White to TB 31 for 5 yards (26-D.Bland) [2-J.Lewis]. FUMBLES (26-D.Bland), RECOVERED by DAL-26-D.Bland at TB 31. ** Injury Update: DAL-27-A.Oruwariye has returned to

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:40TB +31% win prob(1:40) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 1-R.White to TB 31 for 5 yards (26-D.Bland) [2-J.Lewis]. FUMBLES (26-D.Bland), RECOVERED by DAL-26-D.Bland at TB 31. ** Injury Update: DAL-27-A.Oruwariye has returned to the game.
Q4 · 1:52TB +15% win prob(1:52) 5-B.Anger punts 52 yards to TB 10, Center-44-T.Sieg. 10-T.Palmer pushed ob at TB 26 for 16 yards (86-L.Schoonmaker).
Q2 · 2:33DAL +13% win prob(2:33) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass deep right to 88-C.Lamb to TB 11 for 52 yards (27-Z.McCollum; 29-C.Izien). Penalty on TB-27-Z.McCollum, Defensive Holding, declined.
Q4 · 6:30TB +13% win prob(6:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle intended for 15-J.McMillan INTERCEPTED by 2-J.Lewis at DAL -2. Touchback.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 9:10DAL Field goal
(9:10) 17-B.Aubrey 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Score after this play: TB 0 — DAL 3
Q1 · 2:53DAL Touchdown
(2:53) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short middle to 1-J.Tolbert for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN [50-V.Vea]. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 0 — DAL 10
Q2 · 11:34TB Touchdown
(11:34) 7-B.Irving right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 7 — DAL 10
Q2 · 9:20DAL Field goal
(9:20) 17-B.Aubrey 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. ** Injury Update: DAL-79-M.Waletzko has returned to the game.
Score after this play: TB 7 — DAL 13
Q2 · 1:48DAL Touchdown
(1:48) 15-E.Elliott left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 7 — DAL 20
Q2 · 0:54TB Touchdown
(:54) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 15-J.McMillan for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 14 — DAL 20
Q2 · 0:05DAL Field goal
(:05) 17-B.Aubrey 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. ** Injury Update: TB-26-K.Merriweather has returned to the game.
Score after this play: TB 14 — DAL 23
Q3 · 6:38DAL Field goal
(6:38) 17-B.Aubrey 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Score after this play: TB 14 — DAL 26
Q3 · 0:34TB Field goal
(:34) 4-C.McLaughlin 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning.
Score after this play: TB 17 — DAL 26
Q4 · 2:40TB Touchdown
(2:40) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 81-R.Miller for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 24 — DAL 26

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Buccaneers	Cowboys
Offensive plays	70	53
Total yards	410 (edge)	321
Yards per play	5.9	6.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.08 (edge)	0.01
Success rate	54% (edge)	38%
Dropback rate	71%	68%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.03	0.26 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.21 (edge)	-0.50
Third downs	6/12 (edge)	5/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	25 (edge)	14
Sacks taken	4	1 (edge)
Turnovers	4	0 (edge)

Buccaneers outgained Cowboys 410–321 but lost the turnover battle 4–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Baker MayfieldQB

31/43, 303 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

2.2 expected points added · +3.2% completion over expected

Passing · DAL

Cooper RushQB

26/35, 292 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

9.3 expected points added · +5.0% completion over expected

Rushing · TB

Bucky IrvingRB

16 att, 68 yds, 1 TD

2.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DAL

Rico DowdleRB

13 att, 23 yds, 0 TD

-8.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DAL

CeeDee LambWR

7/8 for 105 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 5.6 expected points added

Receiving · TB

Mike EvansWR

5/8 for 69 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 2.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DAL	DAL 30	11	30	5:54	Field goal +3
2	TB	TB 30	8	32	4:09	Turnover on downs
3	DAL	DAL 48	6	52	2:08	Touchdown +7
4	TB	TB 30	5	9	1:37	Punt
5	DAL	DAL 20	4	7	1:27	Punt
6	TB	TB 43	7	57	3:15	Touchdown +7
7	DAL	DAL 30	6	44	2:15	Field goal +3
8	TB	TB 30	10	25	5:01	Punt
9	DAL	DAL 20	10	80	2:29	Touchdown +7
10	TB	TB 29	9	71	0:57	Touchdown +7
11	DAL	DAL 30	7	30	0:48	Field goal +3
12	TB	TB 38	11	25	5:53	Fumble
13	DAL	DAL 35	5	35	2:34	Field goal +3
14	TB	TB 30	12	43	6:02	Field goal +3
15	DAL	DAL 30	7	23	3:53	Punt
16	TB	TB 3	6	11	2:28	Fumble
17	DAL	DAL 39	4	4	1:38	Punt
18	TB	TB 9	5	45	1:10	Interception
19	DAL	DAL 20	4	8	1:39	Punt
20	TB	TB 13	10	87	2:07	Touchdown +7
21	DAL	DAL 30	5	8	0:56	Punt
22	TB	TB 26	1	5	0:09	Fumble
23	DAL	TB 31	3	0	1:31	End of game

10 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 87 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	31/43	303	2	1	4	2.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Bucky Irving	16	68	4.3	1	2.3
Baker Mayfield	3	42	14.0	0	3.1
Sterling Shepard	1	14	14.0	0	0.9
Rachaad White	3	10	3.3	0	1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mike Evans	5	8	69	0	19%	2.8
Jalen McMillan	5	7	57	1	16%	2.6
Rachaad White	7	8	50	0	19%	-2.6
Trey Palmer	2	4	31	0	9%	1.5
Payne Durham	5	7	29	0	16%	0.7
Bucky Irving	3	3	24	0	7%	2.1
Sterling Shepard	1	3	20	0	7%	-2.6
Ryan Miller	2	2	17	1	5%	1.3
Rakim Jarrett	1	1	6	0	2%	0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Christian Izien	9	4	0.0	0
Lavonte David	6	2	0.0	0
YaYa Diaby	4	1	0.5	0
Mike Edwards	1	2	0.0	0
Tykee Smith	2	1	0.0	0
Vita Vea	2	1	0.0	0
Greg Gaines	1	2	0.0	0
Jamel Dean	2	1	0.0	0
J.J. Russell	2	1	0.0	1
Logan Hall	2	0	0.0	0

Dallas Cowboys

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Cooper Rush	26/35	292	1	0	1	9.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Rico Dowdle	13	23	1.8	0	-8.7
Kavontae Turpin	3	11	3.7	0	-0.6
Ezekiel Elliott	1	1	1.0	1	0.8
Cooper Rush	3	-4	-1.3	0	-2.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
CeeDee Lamb	7	8	105	0	24%	5.6
Brandin Cooks	3	3	48	0	9%	3.5
Ryan Flournoy	3	3	41	0	9%	1.4
Jake Ferguson	6	9	40	0	27%	-3.6
Rico Dowdle	3	3	28	0	9%	1.7
Jalen Tolbert	2	3	20	1	9%	5.7
Kavontae Turpin	1	1	7	0	3%	0.4
Luke Schoonmaker	1	1	3	0	3%	-1.0
Hunter Luepke	0	2	0	0	6%	-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Nick Vigil	5	5	0.0	0	0
Daron Bland	7	1	0.0	0	1
Marist Liufau	1	6	0.0	0	1
Chauncey Golston	3	3	1.0	0	1
Jourdan Lewis	3	3	0.0	1	2
Amani Oruwariye	3	3	0.0	0	0
Micah Parsons	4	1	1.0	0	0
Donovan Wilson	2	3	1.0	0	1
Mazi Smith	2	1	0.0	0	0
Linval Joseph	1	2	1.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TB -4.5
Closing total: 47.5
TB moneyline: -218
DAL moneyline: +180

Buccaneers closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 50 — over by 2.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: AT&T Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · matrixturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Land Clark
Rest: TB 7 days · DAL 7 days
Coaches: Todd Bowles vs Mike McCarthy