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2024 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 22, 2024 · Lucas Oil Stadium

Tennessee Titans

30

Indianapolis ColtsWinner

38

IND -4 ✓O 42.5 ✓Dome

Indianapolis Colts 38–30. Biggest swing: Q1 4:11, TEN +17% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3IND ↑TEN ↓
Q1 · 4:11TEN 7 — IND 0IND ball · 1st & 10IND 58%

(4:11) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass deep middle intended for 85-A.Ogletree INTERCEPTED by 37-A.Hooker at TEN 6. 37-A.Hooker ran ob at TEN 25 for 19 yards (64-M.Glowinski).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 4:11TEN +17% win prob(4:11) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass deep middle intended for 85-A.Ogletree INTERCEPTED by 37-A.Hooker at TEN 6. 37-A.Hooker ran ob at TEN 25 for 19 yards (64-M.Glowinski).
  2. Q1 · 7:53IND +14% win prob(7:53) (Shotgun) 11-M.Rudolph pass deep right to 0-C.Ridley for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q2 · 7:36IND +14% win prob(7:36) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor left guard for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q2 · 11:05IND +11% win prob(11:05) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 7:53TEN Touchdown

    (7:53) (Shotgun) 11-M.Rudolph pass deep right to 0-C.Ridley for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TEN 7 — IND 0
  2. Q2 · 11:05IND Touchdown

    (11:05) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TEN 7 — IND 7
  3. Q2 · 7:36IND Touchdown

    (7:36) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor left guard for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TEN 7 — IND 14
  4. Q2 · 2:13IND Field goal

    (2:13) 7-M.Gay 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: TEN 7 — IND 17
  5. Q2 · 0:22IND Touchdown

    (:22) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass short right to 1-J.Downs for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TEN 7 — IND 24
  6. Q3 · 14:53IND Touchdown

    (14:53) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor left tackle for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: TEN-56-K.Murray has returned to the game. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TEN 7 — IND 31
  7. Q3 · 6:53IND Touchdown

    (6:53) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TEN 7 — IND 38
  8. Q3 · 3:02TEN Touchdown

    (3:02) (Shotgun) 2-T.Spears left guard for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on IND-98-R.Davis, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 1 yard, enforced between downs. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: TEN 15 — IND 38
  9. Q4 · 8:19TEN Touchdown

    (8:19) (Shotgun) 11-M.Rudolph pass short middle to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TEN 22 — IND 38
  10. Q4 · 2:56TEN Touchdown

    (2:56) 61-J.Ojukwu and 98-J.Simmons reported in as eligible. 2-T.Spears up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: TEN 30 — IND 38

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricTitansColts
Offensive plays5862
Total yards312458 (edge)
Yards per play5.47.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.070.22 (edge)
Success rate48%50% (edge)
Dropback rate64%23%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.090.10 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.040.25 (edge)
Third downs5/118/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)56 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1718 (edge)
Sacks taken11
Turnovers31 (edge)

Colts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs 0.07.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TEN

Mason RudolphQB

23/34, 252 yds, 2 TD, 3 INT

3.6 expected points added · -1.6% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Anthony RichardsonQB

7/11, 131 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

2.4 expected points added · -6.4% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

29 att, 218 yds, 3 TD

6.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · IND

Anthony RichardsonQB

9 att, 70 yds, 1 TD

4.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TEN

Chigoziem OkonkwoTE

9/11 for 81 yds, 0 TD

33% of team targets · 4.3 expected points added

Receiving · TEN

Calvin RidleyWR

3/5 for 78 yds, 1 TD

15% of team targets · 7.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1TENTEN 30592:11Punt
2INDIND 16181:54Punt
3TENTEN 357653:08Touchdown +7
4INDIND 428363:44Interception
5TENTEN 259404:52Missed field goal
6INDIND 437573:10Touchdown +7
7TENTEN 305191:26Punt
8INDIND 205802:10Touchdown +7
9TENTEN 43531:05Punt
10INDIND 228504:11Field goal +3
11TENTEN 30460:44Interception
12INDTEN 334331:10Touchdown +7
13TENTEN 30200:15End of half
14INDIND 303700:18Touchdown +7
15TENTEN 305-22:14Punt
16INDIND 22482:09Punt
17TENTEN 274181:46Interception
18INDTEN 405401:43Touchdown +7
19TENTEN 3011573:53Touchdown +8
20INDIND 2313407:27Missed field goal
21TENTEN 457552:17Touchdown +7
22INDIND 305-22:15Punt
23TENTEN 298423:05Touchdown +8
24INDIND 3210282:50Punt
25TENTEN 11100:03Interception

10 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 80 scrimmage yards over 5 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tennessee Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Mason Rudolph23/342522313.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Tony Pollard8354.400.6
Tyjae Spears10272.721.6
Mason Rudolph430.80-1.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Chigoziem Okonkwo91181033%4.3
Calvin Ridley3578115%7.4
Tyjae Spears3439012%2.3
Tyler Boyd232009%-2.6
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine2417112%0.9
David Martin-Robinson11603%0.8
Mason Kinsey11603%0.2
Tony Pollard245012%-6.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Cedric Gray660.000
Jeffery Simmons361.000
Harold Landry340.000
Jarvis Brownlee330.000
James Williams420.000
Daryl Worley140.000
Sebastian Joseph320.000
Otis Reese130.000
Chidobe Awuzie130.000
Amani Hooker310.011

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Anthony Richardson7/111311112.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jonathan Taylor292187.536.1
Anthony Richardson9707.814.4
Trey Sermon8253.10-0.1
Tyler Goodson4225.500.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Josh Downs3461136%4.8
Adonai Mitchell113609%3.4
Michael Pittman2319027%0.8
Mo Alie-Cox1215018%1.0
Andrew Ogletree01009%-5.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jaylon Carlies640.000
Zaire Franklin240.000
DeForest Buckner320.001
Kwity Paye221.000
Jaylon Jones400.000
Laiatu Latu220.000
Grover Stewart220.000
Julian Blackmon300.000
Samuel Womack300.011
Kenny Moore210.022

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
IND -4
Closing total
42.5
TEN moneyline
+164
IND moneyline
-198

Colts closed -4 and covered, winning by 8.

Total closed 42.5; the game landed 68 — over by 25.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
TEN 7 days · IND 7 days
Coaches
Brian Callahan vs Shane Steichen

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.