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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:37 AM ET · 16 to play
2024 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 22, 2024 · Lucas Oil Stadium
Final
TitansTennessee30
BY 8final margin
ColtsIndianapolis38
Tennessee Titans 30 at Indianapolis Colts 38. Final.
Colts -4 ✓O 42.5 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 16
Indianapolis Colts 38, Titans 30 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 4:11, 1st and 10, on Amani Hooker — 17.4 win-probability points to the Titans on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 4:11 · 1st and 10
Amani Hooker
Titans
(4:11) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass deep middle intended for 85-A.Ogletree INTERCEPTED by 37-A.Hooker at TEN 6. 37-A.Hooker ran ob at TEN 25 for 19 yards (64-M.Glowinski).
Dome
Colts closed -4 and covered, winning by 8.
Indianapolis Colts 38–30. Biggest swing: Q1 4:11, Titans +17.4% win probability on one snap.
17.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Calvin RidleyTitansQ1 7:53(7:53) (Shotgun) 11-M.Rudolph pass deep right to 0-C.Ridley for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13.9pts
Jonathan TaylorColtsQ2 7:36(7:36) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor left guard for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13.8pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Colts won this one — 1 giveaway, against Titans at 3 giveaways.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Titans owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Colts at 2 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Colts won this one — +0.25 expected points per carry, against Titans at +0.04 expected points per carry.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Colts won this one — +0.22 expected points per snap, against Titans at +0.07 expected points per snap.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Coltshigher on Titans160 of 167 plays carry both curves
(4:11) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass deep middle intended for 85-A.Ogletree INTERCEPTED by 37-A.Hooker at TEN 6. 37-A.Hooker ran ob at TEN 25 for 19 yards (64-M.Glowinski).
Swing −17.4 for ColtsExpected points −5.55 for ColtsThe model had Titans 10 points higher than the market did.play 29
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 4:11TEN +17% win prob(4:11) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass deep middle intended for 85-A.Ogletree INTERCEPTED by 37-A.Hooker at TEN 6. 37-A.Hooker ran ob at TEN 25 for 19 yards (64-M.Glowinski).
1st · 7:53IND +14% win prob(7:53) (Shotgun) 11-M.Rudolph pass deep right to 0-C.Ridley for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 7:36IND +14% win prob(7:36) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor left guard for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 11:05IND +11% win prob(11:05) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 14:16TEN +8% win prob(14:16) 7-B.Narveson 53 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.
1st · 6:07IND +7% win prob(6:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right guard to TEN 43 for 6 yards (37-A.Hooker).
1st · 4:51
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jonathan Taylor's 65-yard rushing touchdown with 7:36 left in the 2nd put Indianapolis Colts ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Colts ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.07Titans: +0.07 expected points added per play
+0.22Colts: +0.22 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.09Titans: +0.09 expected points added per play
+0.10Colts: +0.10 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.04Titans: +0.04 expected points added per play
+0.25Colts: +0.25 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Titans ran 58 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Colts’s 62 at 23%. Red-zone trips: Titans 4, Colts 6.
NoteColts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs 0.07.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
IND's early-down pass rate, 15.2%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 16 — 19.0 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 35.9% in week 3.
2.7 times their own weekly swing below their number.
A 3.3-swing turn from week 15.
46 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.0 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
IND's pass rate over expected, −25.5 pts, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 16 — 12.1 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of −20.1 pts in week 13.
2.1 times their own weekly swing below their number.
62 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.9 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
IND's blitz rate sent, 5.4%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 16 — 3.4 points clear of the next team along.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 15 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −4.9 vs their 12.0%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (−1.01× that swing) · 14 dropbacks
Colts10.8%
right on their number · −1.6 vs their 12.4%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−0.21× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
NoteIND's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 15.2%, 35.6 points below their season mean of 50.8% and 2.7 times their own 13.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tennessee Titans
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
55JC LathamT · Every snap100%61 snaps
77Peter SkoronskiG · Every snap100%61 snaps
60Daniel BrunskillC · Every snap100%61 snaps
11Mason RudolphQB · Every snap100%61 snaps
15Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR · Full-time90%55 snaps
0Calvin RidleyWR · Full-time89%54 snaps
85Chig OkonkwoTE · Full-time85%52 snaps
2Tyjae SpearsRB · Heavy rotation61%37 snaps
61John OjukwuT · Heavy rotation57%35 snaps
78Nicholas Petit-FrereT · Heavy rotation56%34 snaps
75Dillon RadunzT · Heavy rotation51%31 snaps
83Tyler BoydWR · Heavy rotation51%31 snaps
62Corey LevinC · Rotational49%30 snaps
20Tony PollardRB · Rotational39%24 snaps
84Nick VannettTE · Rotational26%16 snaps
12Mason KinseyWR · Situational23%14 snaps
81Josh WhyleTE · Situational15%9 snaps
88David Martin-RobinsonTE · Situational3%2 snaps
80Bryce OliverWR · Situational3%2 snaps
98Jeffery SimmonsDT · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Tre AveryCBGabe Jeudy-LallyCBJerome BakerILBNick FolkKLuke GiffordOLBJoshua KelleyRBJha'Quan JacksonWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Will LevisQB
Indianapolis Colts
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
71Matt GoncalvesT · Every snap100%62 snaps
79Bernhard RaimannT · Every snap100%62 snaps
78Ryan KellyC · Every snap100%62 snaps
64Mark GlowinskiG · Every snap100%62 snaps
5Anthony RichardsonQB · Every snap100%62 snaps
11Michael PittmanWR · Full-time98%61 snaps
56Quenton NelsonG · Full-time97%60 snaps
10Adonai MitchellWR · Full-time89%55 snaps
28Jonathan TaylorRB · Heavy rotation76%47 snaps
1Josh DownsWR · Heavy rotation58%36 snaps
85Andrew OgletreeTE · Heavy rotation56%35 snaps
81Mo Alie-CoxTE · Rotational48%30 snaps
83Kylen GransonTE · Rotational31%19 snaps
16Ashton DulinWR · Situational15%9 snaps
27Trey SermonRB · Situational15%9 snaps
31Tyler GoodsonRB · Situational10%6 snaps
86Will MalloryTE · Situational5%3 snaps
60Tanor BortoliniC · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Chris LammonsCBIsaiah LandDEDalton TuckerGAtonio MafiGE.J. SpeedOLBSam EhlingerQBAlec PierceWR
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Titans←Colts→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Richardson pass−14% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(4:11) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass deep middle intended for 85-A.Ogletree INTERCEPTED by 37-A.Hooker at TEN 6. 37-A.Hooker ran ob at TEN 25 for 19 yards (64-M.Glowinski).
Q1 4:11 · Colts · 1st & 10 at TEN 27 · gained nothing · -5.55 EP · −14.0% win probability
158 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 167 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 158 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 162. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 80 yards from the IND 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
167 of 167 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
167
EPA per play
+0.09
Success rate
50%
Yards
769
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44+0.1170%
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39+0.3926%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21+0.215%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.5520%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.1540%
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 30 to the Titans 39
Punt7 plays, from the Colts 1 to the Colts 24
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Titans6Colts0
Titans7Colts0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Titans 35 to the Colts 38
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Intercepted9 plays, from the Colts 42 to the Titans 27
The period ended7 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Colts 39
2nd quarter45 plays
No good3 plays, from the Colts 38 to the Colts 35
Titans7Colts6
Titans7Colts7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Colts 43 to the Titans 5
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 30 to the Titans 39
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Titans7Colts13
Titans7Colts14
Touchdown5 plays, from the Colts 20 to the Colts 35
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 43 to the Titans 46
Titans7Colts17
Field goal8 plays, from the Colts 22 to the Titans 13
Intercepted4 plays, from the Titans 30 to the Titans 36
Titans7Colts23
Titans7Colts24
Touchdown4 plays, from the Titans 33 to the Titans 26
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Titans7Colts30
Titans7Colts31
Touchdown3 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 30 to the Titans 38
Punt4 plays, from the Colts 22 to the Colts 30
Intercepted5 plays, from the Titans 27 to the Titans 40
Titans7Colts37
Titans7Colts38
Touchdown5 plays, from the Titans 40 to the Titans 1
Titans13Colts38
Titans15Colts38
Touchdown11 plays, from the Titans 30 to the Colts 11
The period ended6 plays, from the Colts 23 to the Colts 36
4th quarter47 plays
No good8 plays, from the Colts 42 to the Titans 37
Titans21Colts38
Titans22Colts38
Touchdown7 plays, from the Titans 45 to the Colts 6
Punt6 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Colts 35
Titans28Colts38
Titans30Colts38
Touchdown9 plays, from the Titans 29 to the Colts 2
Punt15 plays, from the Colts 32 to the Titans 40
Intercepted1 play
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
