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polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:24 AM ET · 16 to play
Arizona Cardinals 9 at Los Angeles Rams 13. Final.
Rams -6.5 no coverU 48 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 17
Los Angeles Rams 13, Cardinals 9 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 0:42, 1st and 5, on Ahkello Witherspoon — 57.1 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:42 · 1st and 5
Ahkello Witherspoon
Rams
(:42) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left intended for 85-T.McBride INTERCEPTED by 4-A.Witherspoon at LA 1. 4-A.Witherspoon to LA 1 for no gain (17-Z.Jones). The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Dome
Rams closed -6.5, won by 4 — but didn't cover.
Los Angeles Rams 13–9. Biggest swing: Q4 0:42, Rams +57.1% win probability on one snap.
57.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Kyler MurrayRamsQ4 4:44(4:44) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at LA 47 for -7 yards (91-K.Turner).
11.7pts
Michael CarterCardinalsQ4 1:25(1:25) (Shotgun) 22-M.Carter up the middle to LA 20 for 13 yards (39-J.McCollough; 3-K.Curl). LA-26-K.Kinchens was injured during the play.
10.9pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Rams won this one — no giveaways, against Cardinals at 2 giveaways.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Cardinals owned this one and still lost it — 53% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Rams at 45% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Cardinalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Rams won this one — 1 touchdown on 2 trips, against Cardinals at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Cardinals owned this one and still lost it — 7 chunk plays, against Rams at 6 chunk plays.
Cardinalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ramshigher on Cardinals164 of 174 plays carry both curves
(:42) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left intended for 85-T.McBride INTERCEPTED by 4-A.Witherspoon at LA 1. 4-A.Witherspoon to LA 1 for no gain (17-Z.Jones). The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the
Swing +57.1 for RamsExpected points +5.66 for RamsModel and market agree here.play 167
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:42ARI +57% win prob(:42) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left intended for 85-T.McBride INTERCEPTED by 4-A.Witherspoon at LA 1. 4-A.Witherspoon to LA 1 for no gain (17-Z.Jones). The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
4th · 4:44ARI +12% win prob(4:44) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at LA 47 for -7 yards (91-K.Turner).
4th · 1:25LA +11% win prob(1:25) (Shotgun) 22-M.Carter up the middle to LA 20 for 13 yards (39-J.McCollough; 3-K.Curl). LA-26-K.Kinchens was injured during the play.
4th · 1:35LA +11% win prob(1:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 85-T.McBride pushed ob at LA 41 for 17 yards (26-K.Kinchens).
4th · 0:46LA +9% win prob(:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 22-M.Carter left guard to LA 5 for 6 yards (39-J.McCollough).
4th · 2:13ARI +8% win prob(2:13) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 17-P.Nacua.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Kyren Williams's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 3:28 left in the 2nd put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
2nd3:28Kyren Williams·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
2nd0:32Joshua Karty·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder E.Evans · snap A.Ward+30–10
4th14:04Chad Ryland·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder M.Palardy · snap A.Brewer+39–10
4th6:36Joshua Karty·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder E.Evans · snap A.Ward+39–13
5 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cardinalscategory by categoryRams
Cardinals6–2Rams
396Total yards258
5.4Yards per play4.9
53%Success rate45%
46%Third-down rate43%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
7Explosive plays6
23First downs12
4Sacks taken0
2Turnovers0
The read
Cardinals ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Rams, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.01Cardinals: −0.01 expected points added per play
−0.03Rams: −0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.05Cardinals: +0.05 expected points added per play
+0.03Rams: +0.03 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.17Cardinals: −0.17 expected points added per play
−0.13Rams: −0.13 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 74 snaps at a 73% dropback rate against Rams’s 53 at 62%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 4, Rams 2.
NoteCardinals outgained Rams 396-258 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 17Against their seasonOver Expected
ARI's pass rate over expected, +9.9 pts, is past their previous high of +7.0 pts in week 12 — the highest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
A 2.6-swing turn from week 16.
74 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.5 points.
LA's early-down pass rate turned over: 34.2% in week 16 against 59.0% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
39 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 16 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.9 vs their 12.0%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−0.91× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Rams11.1%
right on their number · −0.5 vs their 11.6%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.08× that swing) · 54 dropbacks
NoteARI's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 9.9 pts, 12.7 points above their season mean of -2.7 pts and 1.7 times their own 7.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cardinals←Rams→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Murray pass−55% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:42) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left intended for 85-T.McBride INTERCEPTED by 4-A.Witherspoon at LA 1. 4-A.Witherspoon to LA 1 for no gain (17-Z.Jones). The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q4 0:42 · Cardinals · 1st & goal at LA 5 · gained nothing · -5.66 EP · −55.2% win probability
162 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 174 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 162 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 169. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 80 yards from the ARI 10 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
174 of 174 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
174
EPA per play
-0.05
Success rate
46%
Yards
653
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49-0.0163%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46-0.0678%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.4160%
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR10+0.1260%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Cardinals2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
174 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
174 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Cardinals 48
Punt7 plays, from the Cardinals 3 to the Cardinals 22
Punt7 plays, from the Rams 28 to the Rams 38
Punt10 plays, from the Cardinals 5 to the Cardinals 40
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 39 to the Rams 43
The period ended3 plays, from the Cardinals 19 to the Rams 47
2nd quarter51 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Rams 40 to the Rams 14
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 15 to the Rams 24
Punt7 plays, from the Cardinals 15 to the Cardinals 27
Cardinals0Rams6
Cardinals0Rams7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Rams 40 to the Cardinals 1
Punt6 plays, from the Cardinals 30 to the Cardinals 49
Cardinals0Rams10
Field goal11 plays, from the Rams 23 to the Cardinals 35
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Cardinals6Rams10
Touchdown16 plays, from the Cardinals 32 to the Rams 1
Punt6 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Rams 39
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.5 seconds
The period ended13 plays, from the Cardinals 10 to the Rams 16
4th quarter49 plays
Cardinals9Rams10
Field goal3 plays, from the Rams 20 to the Rams 10
Cardinals9Rams13
Field goal16 plays, from the Rams 33 to the Cardinals 7
Intercepted8 plays, from the Cardinals 30 to the Rams 40
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 11 to the Rams 17
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxFour defenders
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.6 seconds
The period ended11 plays, from the Cardinals 36 to the Rams 5
The period ended6 plays, from the Rams 1 to the Rams 2
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Cardinalscategory by categoryRams
Cardinals0
Rams6
