2024 Week 17 · Sat, Dec 28, 2024 · SoFi Stadium

Arizona Cardinals

Los Angeles RamsWinner

LA -6.5 no coverU 48 ✓DomeRams closed -6.5, won by 4 — but didn't cover.

Los Angeles Rams 13–9. Biggest swing: Q4 0:42, ARI +57% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:42ARI 9 — LA 13ARI ball · 1st & 5ARI 60%

(:42) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left intended for 85-T.McBride INTERCEPTED by 4-A.Witherspoon at LA 1. 4-A.Witherspoon to LA 1 for no gain (17-Z.Jones). The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:42ARI +57% win prob(:42) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left intended for 85-T.McBride INTERCEPTED by 4-A.Witherspoon at LA 1. 4-A.Witherspoon to LA 1 for no gain (17-Z.Jones). The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q4 · 4:44ARI +12% win prob(4:44) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at LA 47 for -7 yards (91-K.Turner).
Q4 · 1:25LA +11% win prob(1:25) (Shotgun) 22-M.Carter up the middle to LA 20 for 13 yards (39-J.McCollough; 3-K.Curl). LA-26-K.Kinchens was injured during the play.
Q4 · 1:35LA +11% win prob(1:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 85-T.McBride pushed ob at LA 41 for 17 yards (26-K.Kinchens).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q2 · 3:28LA Touchdown
(3:28) 23-K.Williams right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ARI 0 — LA 7
Q2 · 0:32LA Field goal
(:32) 16-J.Karty 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.
Score after this play: ARI 0 — LA 10
Q3 · 8:35ARI Touchdown
(8:35) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 85-T.McBride for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: ARI 6 — LA 10
Q4 · 14:04ARI Field goal
(14:04) 38-C.Ryland 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-10-M.Palardy.
Score after this play: ARI 9 — LA 10
Q4 · 6:36LA Field goal
(6:36) 16-J.Karty 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.
Score after this play: ARI 9 — LA 13

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Cardinals	Rams
Offensive plays	74	53
Total yards	396 (edge)	258
Yards per play	5.4 (edge)	4.9
Expected points added / play	-0.01 (edge)	-0.03
Success rate	53% (edge)	45%
Dropback rate	73%	62%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.05 (edge)	0.03
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.17	-0.13 (edge)
Third downs	6/13 (edge)	6/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	23 (edge)	12
Sacks taken	4	0 (edge)
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Cardinals outgained Rams 396–258 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ARI

Kyler MurrayQB

33/48, 321 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

2.2 expected points added · +2.6% completion over expected

Passing · LA

Matthew StaffordQB

17/32, 189 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-0.5 expected points added · -12.2% completion over expected

Rushing · ARI

Michael CarterRB

13 att, 70 yds, 0 TD

2.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LA

Kyren WilliamsRB

13 att, 56 yds, 1 TD

-0.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LA

Puka NacuaWR

10/14 for 129 yds, 0 TD

50% of team targets · 4.8 expected points added

Receiving · ARI

Trey McBrideTE

12/16 for 123 yds, 1 TD

36% of team targets · 3.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LA	LA 30	6	22	1:46	Punt
2	ARI	ARI 3	7	19	4:02	Punt
3	LA	LA 28	7	10	1:57	Punt
4	ARI	ARI 5	8	22	4:08	Punt
5	LA	LA 39	5	14	2:03	Punt
6	ARI	ARI 19	10	77	5:00	Turnover on downs
7	LA	LA 15	4	14	1:36	Punt
8	ARI	ARI 15	5	11	2:53	Punt
9	LA	LA 40	10	60	3:12	Touchdown +7
10	ARI	ARI 30	6	19	1:42	Punt
11	LA	LA 23	8	47	1:14	Field goal +3
12	ARI	ARI 30	2	-8	0:27	End of half
13	ARI	ARI 32	15	67	6:29	Touchdown +6
14	LA	LA 30	5	19	2:12	Punt
15	ARI	ARI 10	14	100	7:19	Field goal +3
16	LA	LA 33	14	65	7:27	Field goal +3
17	ARI	ARI 30	8	30	3:31	Interception
18	LA	LA 11	4	6	1:01	Punt
19	ARI	ARI 36	9	59	1:24	Interception
20	LA	LA 1	3	1	0:37	End of game

5 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cardinals gained 100 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kyler Murray	33/48	321	1	2	4	2.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Michael Carter	13	70	5.4	2.0
Kyler Murray	4	32	8.0	1.7
Michael Wilson	1	7	7.0	-0.8
James Conner	4	4	1.0	-5.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Trey McBride	12	16	123	1	36%	3.5
Marvin Harrison	6	10	96	0	22%	5.9
Elijah Higgins	2	3	23	0	7%	0.9
Michael Wilson	4	6	22	0	13%	1.8
Zay Jones	1	1	19	0	2%	1.4
Greg Dortch	3	3	18	0	7%	-0.6
Michael Carter	2	2	11	0	4%	0.3
DeeJay Dallas	1	1	5	0	2%	0.1
James Conner	2	3	4	0	7%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Kyzir White	4	4	0
Budda Baker	1	6	2
Mack Wilson	4	2	0
Jalen Thompson	4	2	0
Garrett Williams	0	4	2
Sean Murphy-Bunting	3	1	0
Victor Dimukeje	1	1	0
Dante Stills	2	0	0
Max Melton	0	2	1
Michael Wilson	1	0	0

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	17/32	189	0	0	0	-0.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Kyren Williams	13	56	4.3	1	-0.8
Matthew Stafford	6	16	2.7	0	2.5
Blake Corum	3	-4	-1.3	0	-2.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Puka Nacua	10	14	129	50%	4.8
Cooper Kupp	1	3	29	11%	-1.1
Kyren Williams	3	3	16	11%	0.8
Tyler Higbee	2	3	9	11%	-0.5
Jordan Whittington	1	1	6	4%	0.6
Colby Parkinson	0	1	0	4%	-0.4
Davis Allen	0	1	0	4%	-0.4
Demarcus Robinson	0	2	0	7%	-2.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Kamren Curl	5	5	0.0	0	1
Omar Speights	4	5	0.0	0	0
Byron Young	5	3	1.0	0	0
Kamren Kinchens	5	2	0.0	1	1
Michael Hoecht	2	5	0.0	0	0
Ahkello Witherspoon	5	1	0.0	1	2
Christian Rozeboom	2	3	0.0	0	0
Quentin Lake	3	1	0.0	0	0
Darious Williams	2	2	0.0	0	1
Braden Fiske	2	0	2.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LA -6.5
Closing total: 48
ARI moneyline: +270
LA moneyline: -340

Rams closed -6.5, won by 4 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 48; the game landed 22 — under by 26.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Brad Rogers
Rest: ARI 6 days · LA 6 days
Coaches: Jonathan Gannon vs Sean McVay

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.