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polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:22 AM ET · 16 to play
Atlanta Falcons 24 at Washington Commanders 30. Final.
Commanders -3.5 ✓O 46.5 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 17
Washington Commanders 30, Falcons 24 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 0:02, 1st and 10, on Riley Patterson — 35.1 win-probability points to the Commanders on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:02 · 1st and 10
Riley Patterson
Commanders
(:02) 37-R.Patterson 56 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Commanders closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 6.
Washington Commanders 30–24. Biggest swing: Q4 0:02, Commanders +35.1% win probability on one snap.
35.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Michael PenixFalconsQ4 0:07(:07) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete deep right to 1-D.Mooney [92-D.Armstrong]. PENALTY on WAS-24-M.Davis, Defensive Pass Interference, 13 yards, enforced at ATL 49 - No Play.
20.9pts
Jayden DanielsCommandersOT 7:34(7:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels scrambles right end ran ob at ATL 34 for 16 yards (31-J.Simmons).
20.1pts
What separated them
Third down
Commanders won this one — 6 of 13 on third down, against Falcons at 2 of 10 on third down.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Commanders won this one — +0.23 expected points per dropback, against Falcons at -0.03 expected points per dropback.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Commanders won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Falcons at 7 chunk plays.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Commanders won this one — +0.22 expected points per snap, against Falcons at +0.07 expected points per snap.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Commandershigher on Falcons180 of 190 plays carry both curves
(:02) 37-R.Patterson 56 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Swing +35.1 for CommandersExpected points +1.53 for CommandersThe model had Commanders 8 points higher than the market did.play 173
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:02ATL +35% win prob(:02) 37-R.Patterson 56 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
4th · 0:07WAS +21% win prob(:07) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete deep right to 1-D.Mooney [92-D.Armstrong]. PENALTY on WAS-24-M.Davis, Defensive Pass Interference, 13 yards, enforced at ATL 49 - No Play.
Overtime · 7:34WAS +20% win prob(7:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels scrambles right end ran ob at ATL 34 for 16 yards (31-J.Simmons).
4th · 2:34WAS +16% win prob(2:34) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass deep left to 5-D.London pushed ob at WAS 19 for 31 yards (20-Q.Martin).
4th · 1:23WAS +15% win prob(1:23) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short middle to 8-K.Pitts for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:19ATL +14% win prob(2:19) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 7-B.Robinson. 7-B.Robinson FUMBLES (Aborted) at WAS 10, and recovers at WAS 24. 7-B.Robinson to WAS 26 for -2 yards (96-J.Holmes).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Zach Ertz's 2-yard touchdown catch with 2:45 left in overtime put Washington Commanders ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Commanders ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Falcons, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.07Falcons: +0.07 expected points added per play
+0.22Commanders: +0.22 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.03Falcons: −0.03 expected points added per play
+0.23Commanders: +0.23 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.22Falcons: +0.22 expected points added per play
+0.21Commanders: +0.21 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 60 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Commanders’s 76 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 3, Commanders 5.
NoteCommanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs 0.07.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 17Against their seasonTendencies
ATL's blitz rate sent, 54.2%, is past their previous high of 37.0% in week 10 — the highest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
2.2 times their own weekly swing above their number.
48 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.4 points.
high through week 17Against their seasonFourth Down
WAS's fourth-and-short go rate, 100.0%, is past their previous high of 75.0% in week 3 — the highest of their 8 charted games through week 17.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 9 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 29.2 points.
WAS's blitz rate sent turned over: 62.2% in week 16 against 36.8% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 14 pts
right on their number · +1.0 vs their 11.5%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+0.14× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Commanders7.9%
leaned — stayed blocked · −6.5 vs their 14.4%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−1.07× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
NoteATL's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 54.2%, 27.2 points above their season mean of 27.0% and 2.2 times their own 12.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
65Matthew BergeronG · Every snap100%64 snaps
76Kaleb McGaryT · Every snap100%64 snaps
70Jake MatthewsT · Every snap100%64 snaps
63Chris LindstromG · Every snap100%64 snaps
9Michael Penix Jr.QB · Every snap100%64 snaps
67Drew DalmanC · Every snap100%64 snaps
1Darnell MooneyWR · Full-time97%62 snaps
5Drake LondonWR · Full-time97%62 snaps
7Bijan RobinsonRB · Full-time91%58 snaps
34Ray-Ray McCloudWR · Heavy rotation63%40 snaps
89Charlie WoernerTE · Heavy rotation53%34 snaps
8Kyle PittsTE · Rotational47%30 snaps
12KhaDarel HodgeWR · Rotational39%25 snaps
25Tyler AllgeierRB · Situational13%8 snaps
19Chris BlairWR · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Kevin KingCBBrandon DorlusDEElijah WilkinsonGCarlos WashingtonRBTyrone Wheatley Jr.TBrandon ParkerTCasey WashingtonWR
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Falcons←Commanders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
Riley Patterson−27% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:02) 37-R.Patterson 56 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Q4 0:02 · Falcons · 1st & 10 at WAS 38 · gained nothing · -1.53 EP · −27.2% win probability
178 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 190 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 178 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 184. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 79 yards from the WAS 21 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
190 of 190 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
190
EPA per play
+0.11
Success rate
51%
Yards
749
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR58+0.1164%
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49+0.1555%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17+0.6853%
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Commanders0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Commanders1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
190 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
190 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runDeep outCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Falcons 47
Falcons0Commanders6
Falcons0Commanders7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Falcons 38 to the Falcons 7
Falcons6Commanders7
Falcons7Commanders7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Commanders 1
Punt5 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 29 to the Falcons 37
2nd quarter41 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one tight end and four receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.6 seconds
Intercepted9 plays, from the Commanders 37 to the Falcons 12
Falcons13Commanders7
Falcons14Commanders7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Falcons 28 to the Commanders 1
Punt8 plays, from the Commanders 30 to the Falcons 45
Falcons17Commanders7
Field goal8 plays, from the Falcons 28 to the Commanders 21
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Falcons17Commanders13
Falcons17Commanders14
Touchdown20 plays, from the Commanders 31 to the Falcons 9
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 29 to the Falcons 34
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, no huddle, a man in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept clean
How the play was built
Empty backfield, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
The period ended13 plays, from the Commanders 30 to the Falcons 19
4th quarter54 plays
Falcons17Commanders20
Falcons17Commanders21
Touchdown5 plays, from the Falcons 14 to the Falcons 2
Punt8 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Commanders 49
Falcons17Commanders24
Field goal13 plays, from the Commanders 36 to the Falcons 1
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
How the play was built
Three in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Falcons23Commanders24
Falcons24Commanders24
Touchdown15 plays, from the Falcons 32 to the Commanders 5
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, dropped.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Punt5 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
No good7 plays, from the Falcons 19 to the Commanders 38
Overtime16 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, no huddle, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a run-pass option, no huddle, a man in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Falcons24Commanders30
Touchdown15 plays, from the Commanders 30 to the Falcons 2
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Commanders -3.5
Closing total
46.5
Falcons moneyline
+160
Commanders moneyline
-192
Commanders closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 6.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 54 — over by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
FedExField
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 61°F at kickoff; breezy at 14 mph out of the south; 0.08 in of precipitation; moderate drizzle.
Referee
Alex Kemp
Rest
Falcons 7 days · Commanders 7 days
Coaches
Raheem Morris vs Dan Quinn
Overtime · 2:45WAS +13% win prob(2:45) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 12:54ATL +12% win prob(12:54) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass deep left intended for 19-C.Blair INTERCEPTED by 20-Q.Martin at WAS 33. 20-Q.Martin to ATL 38 for 29 yards (34-R.McCloud; 9-M.Penix).
