2024 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 29, 2024 · FedExField

Atlanta Falcons

Washington CommandersWinner

WAS -3.5 ✓O 46.5 ✓Commanders closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 6.

Washington Commanders 30–24. Biggest swing: Q4 0:02, ATL +35% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:02ATL 24 — WAS 24ATL ball · 1st & 10ATL 80%

(:02) 37-R.Patterson 56 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:02ATL +35% win prob(:02) 37-R.Patterson 56 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Q4 · 0:07WAS +21% win prob(:07) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete deep right to 1-D.Mooney [92-D.Armstrong]. PENALTY on WAS-24-M.Davis, Defensive Pass Interference, 13 yards, enforced at ATL 49 - No Play.
OT · 7:34WAS +20% win prob(7:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels scrambles right end ran ob at ATL 34 for 16 yards (31-J.Simmons).
Q4 · 2:34WAS +16% win prob(2:34) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass deep left to 5-D.London pushed ob at WAS 19 for 31 yards (20-Q.Martin).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 9:37WAS Touchdown
(9:37) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 14-O.Zaccheaus for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [3-J.Bates]. (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 0 — WAS 7
Q1 · 5:12ATL Touchdown
(5:12) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 7-B.Robinson. 7-B.Robinson left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 7 — WAS 7
Q2 · 4:27ATL Touchdown
(4:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 14 — WAS 7
Q2 · 0:06ATL Field goal
(:06) 37-R.Patterson 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Score after this play: ATL 17 — WAS 7
Q3 · 7:19WAS Touchdown
(7:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 86-Z.Ertz for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 17 — WAS 14
Q4 · 13:08WAS Touchdown
(13:08) (No Huddle) 36-C.Rodriguez left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 17 — WAS 21
Q4 · 4:35WAS Field goal
(4:35) 47-Z.Gonzalez 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
Score after this play: ATL 17 — WAS 24
Q4 · 1:23ATL Touchdown
(1:23) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short middle to 8-K.Pitts for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 24 — WAS 24
OT · 2:45WAS Touchdown
(2:45) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: ATL 24 — WAS 30

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Falcons	Commanders
Offensive plays	60	76
Total yards	337	413 (edge)
Yards per play	5.6 (edge)	5.4
Expected points added / play	0.07	0.22 (edge)
Success rate	52%	53% (edge)
Dropback rate	63%	63%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.03	0.23 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.22 (edge)	0.21
Third downs	2/10	6/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	19	27 (edge)
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	5
Turnovers	1	1

Commanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs 0.07.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · WAS

Jayden DanielsQB

24/36, 227 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

5.0 expected points added · -0.3% completion over expected

Passing · ATL

Michael PenixQB

19/35, 223 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-0.6 expected points added · -4.8% completion over expected

Rushing · WAS

Jayden DanielsQB

16 att, 127 yds, 0 TD

10.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ATL

Bijan RobinsonRB

17 att, 90 yds, 2 TD

2.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ATL

Drake LondonWR

7/13 for 106 yds, 0 TD

37% of team targets · 5.0 expected points added

Receiving · WAS

Olamide ZaccheausWR

8/9 for 85 yds, 1 TD

26% of team targets · 7.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ATL	ATL 30	6	17	2:15	Interception
2	WAS	ATL 38	8	38	3:12	Touchdown +7
3	ATL	ATL 30	12	60	4:23	Touchdown +7
4	WAS	WAS 30	5	-1	2:22	Punt
5	ATL	ATL 29	4	9	2:03	Punt
6	WAS	WAS 28	9	55	5:08	Interception
7	ATL	ATL 28	12	62	6:13	Touchdown +7
8	WAS	WAS 30	6	25	2:31	Punt
9	ATL	ATL 28	8	51	1:51	Field goal +3
10	WAS	WAS 30	2	0	0:02	End of half
11	WAS	WAS 31	17	84	7:47	Touchdown +7
12	ATL	ATL 29	5	-1	2:07	Punt
13	WAS	WAS 30	15	75	7:03	Touchdown +7
14	ATL	ATL 30	8	15	3:01	Punt
15	WAS	WAS 36	10	62	5:30	Field goal +3
16	ATL	ATL 32	14	99	3:13	Touchdown +7
17	WAS	WAS 30	5	0	0:39	Punt
18	ATL	ATL 19	4	25	0:40	Missed field goal
19	WAS	WAS 30	13	75	7:18	Touchdown +6

9 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Falcons gained 99 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Michael Penix	19/35	223	1	1	2	-0.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Bijan Robinson	17	90	5.3	2	2.7
Tyler Allgeier	3	19	6.3	0	1.1
Ray-Ray McCloud	1	14	14.0	0	1.4
Michael Penix	2	3	1.5	0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Drake London	7	13	106	0	37%	5.0
Kyle Pitts	4	5	44	1	14%	5.7
Darnell Mooney	2	5	37	0	14%	-0.9
Ray-Ray McCloud	1	1	13	0	3%	1.6
KhaDarel Hodge	1	4	9	0	11%	-1.1
Bijan Robinson	3	5	8	0	14%	-2.7
Charlie Woerner	1	1	6	0	3%	0.3
Chris Blair	0	1	0	0	3%	-4.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jessie Bates	7	5	1.0	0	0
Kaden Elliss	6	3	0.0	1	1
Nate Landman	5	2	0.0	0	1
Mike Hughes	3	3	0.0	0	0
Dee Alford	3	3	0.0	0	0
J.D. Bertrand	3	2	1.0	0	0
Grady Jarrett	3	2	0.0	0	0
Justin Simmons	4	1	0.0	0	0
Matt Judon	3	0	1.0	0	0
Arnold Ebiketie	2	0	1.0	0	0

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jayden Daniels	24/36	227	3	1	5	5.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jayden Daniels	16	127	7.9	0	10.0
Brian Robinson	13	60	4.6	0	-0.1
Chris Rodriguez	5	16	3.2	1	1.6
Olamide Zaccheaus	1	8	8.0	0	0.6
Jeremy McNichols	1	5	5.0	0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Olamide Zaccheaus	8	9	85	1	26%	7.3
Zach Ertz	6	7	72	2	20%	9.1
Jamison Crowder	3	5	25	0	14%	-4.7
John Bates	1	1	14	0	3%	1.7
Chris Rodriguez	1	1	12	0	3%	1.1
Brian Robinson	2	2	9	0	6%	-0.2
Jeremy McNichols	2	3	5	0	9%	1.9
Terry McLaurin	1	7	5	0	20%	-4.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Quan Martin	6	1	0.0	1	2
Bobby Wagner	0	6	0.0	0	1
Jeremy Chinn	2	3	0.0	0	2
Michael Davis	5	0	0.0	0	0
Dorance Armstrong	1	3	1.0	0	0
Benjamin St-Juste	3	0	0.0	0	0
Mike Sainristil	2	1	0.0	0	0
Jer'Zhan Newton	1	2	0.0	0	0
Daron Payne	1	1	0.0	0	0
Jeremy Reaves	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: WAS -3.5
Closing total: 46.5
ATL moneyline: +160
WAS moneyline: -192

Commanders closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 6.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 54 — over by 7.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FedExField
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 58°F, wind 10 mph
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: ATL 7 days · WAS 7 days
Coaches: Raheem Morris vs Dan Quinn