2024 Week 17 · Wed, Dec 25, 2024 · NRG Stadium

Baltimore RavensWinner

Houston Texans

BAL -5.5 ✓U 46.5 ✓DomeRavens closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 29.

Baltimore Ravens 31–2 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 12:54, HOU +7% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 12:54BAL 0 — HOU 0BAL ball · 2nd & 13BAL 68%

(12:54) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson scrambles right end ran ob at HOU 41 for 25 yards (23-E.Murray).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 12:54HOU +7% win prob(12:54) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson scrambles right end ran ob at HOU 41 for 25 yards (23-E.Murray).
Q2 · 3:10HOU +6% win prob(3:10) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 89-M.Andrews to HOU 13 for 67 yards (21-C.Bullock).
Q1 · 10:52HOU +6% win prob(10:52) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 4-Z.Flowers to HOU 2 for 27 yards (4-K.Lassiter).
Q2 · 7:17HOU +6% win prob(7:17) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep right to 2-R.Woods. PENALTY on BAL-44-M.Humphrey, Defensive Pass Interference, 20 yards, enforced at BAL 30 - No Play.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 10:10BAL Touchdown
(10:10) 66-B.Cleveland reported in as eligible. 22-D.Henry right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BAL 7 — HOU 0
Q1 · 2:51BAL Field goal
(2:51) 9-J.Tucker 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Score after this play: BAL 10 — HOU 0
Q2 · 10:15HOU Safety
(10:15) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry left guard tackled in End Zone for -4 yards, SAFETY (4-K.Lassiter).
Score after this play: BAL 10 — HOU 2
Q2 · 2:00BAL Touchdown
(2:00) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 80-I.Likely for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BAL 17 — HOU 2
Q3 · 13:30BAL Touchdown
(13:30) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson right end for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BAL 24 — HOU 2
Q3 · 5:53BAL Touchdown
(5:53) 66-B.Cleveland reported in as eligible. 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 89-M.Andrews for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BAL 31 — HOU 2

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Ravens	Texans
Offensive plays	61	54
Total yards	432 (edge)	211
Yards per play	7.1 (edge)	3.9
Expected points added / play	0.31 (edge)	-0.41
Success rate	59% (edge)	31%
Dropback rate	33%	70%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.62 (edge)	-0.48
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.16 (edge)	-0.27
Third downs	4/9 (edge)	4/15
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	1
First downs gained on snaps	24 (edge)	9
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	5
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.31 expected points added per play vs -0.41.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · HOU

C.J. StroudQB

17/31, 185 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-18.9 expected points added · -10.3% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

10/15, 168 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

8.4 expected points added · +6.6% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Derrick HenryRB

27 att, 147 yds, 1 TD

6.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · HOU

Joe MixonRB

9 att, 26 yds, 0 TD

-2.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · HOU

Nico CollinsWR

3/6 for 59 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 4.3 expected points added

Receiving · HOU

John MetchieWR

5/8 for 48 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · -1.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BAL	BAL 25	10	75	4:52	Touchdown +7
2	HOU	HOU 30	8	11	3:56	Punt
3	BAL	BAL 30	7	36	3:25	Field goal +3
4	HOU	HOU 30	6	16	0:57	Punt
5	BAL	BAL 23	7	22	3:27	Punt
6	HOU	HOU 18	6	23	3:08	Punt
7	BAL	BAL 4	1	-4	0:06	Safety
8	HOU	HOU 43	10	36	4:38	Turnover on downs
9	BAL	BAL 1	7	104	3:40	Touchdown +7
10	HOU	HOU 30	6	27	0:40	Punt
11	BAL	BAL 20	5	28	0:50	Punt
12	HOU	HOU 15	3	12	0:21	End of half
13	HOU	HOU 30	4	7	0:54	Interception
14	BAL	BAL 39	3	61	0:44	Touchdown +7
15	HOU	HOU 30	5	-4	2:01	Punt
16	BAL	BAL 38	11	47	5:31	Touchdown +7
17	HOU	HOU 30	9	57	3:40	Turnover on downs
18	BAL	BAL 13	9	24	5:45	Punt
19	HOU	HOU 22	4	8	1:01	Punt
20	BAL	BAL 11	11	39	7:01	Punt
21	HOU	HOU 20	6	18	3:23	End of game

5 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Ravens gained 104 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Lamar Jackson	10/15	168	2	0	1	8.4
Josh Johnson	1/2	16	0	0	0	0.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Derrick Henry	27	147	5.4	1	6.1
Lamar Jackson	4	87	21.8	1	9.2
Keaton Mitchell	11	20	1.8	0	-4.2
Rasheen Ali	1	-3	-3.0	0	-1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mark Andrews	2	2	68	1	13%	5.2
Zay Flowers	2	5	31	0	31%	0.0
Keaton Mitchell	1	1	28	0	6%	1.1
Derrick Henry	2	2	18	0	13%	2.6
Anthony Miller	1	1	16	0	6%	2.2
Rashod Bateman	1	1	12	0	6%	0.9
Isaiah Likely	1	1	9	1	6%	2.3
Tylan Wallace	1	1	2	0	6%	-1.2
Devontez Walker	0	2	0	0	13%	-1.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Marlon Humphrey	5	2	0.0	0	1
Roquan Smith	5	1	1.0	0	0
Kyle Van Noy	2	2	1.0	0	0
Broderick Washington	1	2	0.0	0	0
Brandon Stephens	3	0	0.0	0	0
Nate Wiggins	3	0	0.0	0	1
Travis Jones	1	1	0.0	0	0
Kyle Hamilton	1	1	0.0	1	1
Beau Brade	1	1	0.0	0	0
Tre'Davious White	1	1	0.0	0	0

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
C.J. Stroud	17/31	185	0	1	5	-18.9
Davis Mills	1/1	5	0	0	0	0.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Joe Mixon	9	26	2.9	-2.9
Dameon Pierce	5	13	2.6	-1.3
Dare Ogunbowale	2	12	6.0	-0.1
C.J. Stroud	1	7	7.0	0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Nico Collins	3	6	59	19%	4.3
John Metchie	5	8	48	26%	-1.6
Dalton Schultz	2	6	21	19%	-4.2
Xavier Hutchinson	2	4	21	13%	-2.5
Robert Woods	2	2	21	6%	1.9
Joe Mixon	2	3	13	10%	-2.4
Dare Ogunbowale	1	1	6	3%	-2.9
Cade Stover	1	1	1	3%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Eric Murray	3	5	0.0
Tommy Togiai	0	6	0.5
Kamari Lassiter	3	3	0.0
Henry To'oTo'o	2	3	0.0
Neville Hewitt	1	4	0.0
Derek Stingley	1	3	0.0
Christian Harris	3	1	0.0
Derek Barnett	1	3	0.0
Jake Hansen	3	0	0.0
Kurt Hinish	1	2	0.0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BAL -5.5
Closing total: 46.5
BAL moneyline: -245
HOU moneyline: +200

Ravens closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 29.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 33 — under by 13.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: NRG Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · astroturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Alan Eck
Rest: BAL 4 days · HOU 4 days
Coaches: John Harbaugh vs DeMeco Ryans