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2024 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 29, 2024 · Raymond James Stadium

Carolina Panthers

14

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

48

TB -9.5 ✓O 47.5 ✓

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 48–14 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 12:24, TB +6% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3TB ↑CAR ↓
Q1 · 12:24CAR 0 — TB 0TB ball · 1st & 10TB 82%

(12:24) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 87-P.Durham to CAR 2 for 31 yards (36-D.Richardson; 25-X.Woods).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 12:24TB +6% win prob(12:24) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 87-P.Durham to CAR 2 for 31 yards (36-D.Richardson; 25-X.Woods).
  2. Q1 · 8:20TB +5% win prob(8:20) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 19-A.Thielen for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q1 · 6:09TB +5% win prob(6:09) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 82-D.Culp pushed ob at CAR 22 for 26 yards (36-D.Richardson). Penalty on CAR-52-Dj.Johnson, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.
  4. Q2 · 8:56TB +5% win prob(8:56) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 7-B.Irving ran ob at CAR 1 for 42 yards (25-X.Woods).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 11:38TB Touchdown

    (11:38) 77-J.Skule reported in as eligible. 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 13-M.Evans for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 0 — TB 7
  2. Q1 · 8:20CAR Touchdown

    (8:20) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 19-A.Thielen for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 7 — TB 7
  3. Q1 · 1:16TB Field goal

    (1:16) 4-C.McLaughlin 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning.

    Score after this play: CAR 7 — TB 10
  4. Q2 · 10:35TB Field goal

    (10:35) 4-C.McLaughlin 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning.

    Score after this play: CAR 7 — TB 13
  5. Q2 · 8:24TB Touchdown

    (8:24) (No Huddle) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 13-M.Evans for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 7 — TB 20
  6. Q2 · 1:17TB Touchdown

    (1:17) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 15-J.McMillan for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 7 — TB 27
  7. Q2 · 0:56CAR Touchdown

    (:56) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep middle to 19-A.Thielen for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 14 — TB 27
  8. Q3 · 5:52TB Touchdown

    (5:52) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 87-P.Durham for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 14 — TB 34
  9. Q3 · 5:30TB Touchdown

    (5:30) 10-J.Hekker punt is BLOCKED by 9-J.Tryon, Center-44-J.Jansen, RECOVERED by TB-51-J.Russell at CAR 23. 51-J.Russell for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 14 — TB 41
  10. Q4 · 13:36TB Touchdown

    (13:36) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 15-J.McMillan for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 14 — TB 48

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricPanthersBuccaneers
Offensive plays4671
Total yards204553 (edge)
Yards per play4.47.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.100.45 (edge)
Success rate35%61% (edge)
Dropback rate76%49%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.040.70 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.300.22 (edge)
Third downs2/910/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)312 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1231 (edge)
Sacks taken52 (edge)
Turnovers00

Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.45 expected points added per play vs -0.10.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Baker MayfieldQB

27/32, 359 yds, 5 TD, 0 INT

25.2 expected points added · +20.2% completion over expected

Passing · CAR

Bryce YoungQB

15/28, 203 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

-2.5 expected points added · +9.9% completion over expected

Rushing · TB

Bucky IrvingRB

20 att, 113 yds, 0 TD

3.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TB

Sean TuckerRB

8 att, 39 yds, 0 TD

1.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CAR

Adam ThielenWR

5/6 for 110 yds, 2 TD

27% of team targets · 9.2 expected points added

Receiving · TB

Mike EvansWR

8/9 for 97 yds, 2 TD

28% of team targets · 7.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1TBTB 308703:25Touchdown +7
2CARCAR 308703:20Touchdown +7
3TBTB 2013757:02Field goal +3
4CARCAR 305-91:22Punt
5TBTB 3910404:20Field goal +3
6CARCAR 30500:22Punt
7TBTB 195811:50Touchdown +7
8CARCAR 25531:30Punt
9TBTB 3612595:38Touchdown +7
10CARCAR 306550:21Touchdown +7
11TBTB 175120:30Punt
12CARCAR 244360:20Missed field goal
13CARCAR 307123:22Punt
14TBTB 611995:50Touchdown +7
15CARCAR 30500:25Defensive touchdown
16CARCAR 307141:50Punt
17TBTB 1510805:03Touchdown +7
18CARCAR 3012235:57Turnover on downs
19TBTB 4811377:33End of game

9 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 99 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Carolina Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Bryce Young15/28203205-2.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Raheem Blackshear8202.50-3.4
Mike Boone2115.500.8
Bryce Young284.001.1
Velus Jones100.00-0.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Adam Thielen56110227%9.2
Jalen Coker223509%3.5
Xavier Legette5928041%-0.6
David Moore111705%0.2
Dan Chisena11805%1.1
Ja'Tavion Sanders11505%-0.0
Mike Boone02009%-2.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Chandler Wooten770.000
Xavier Woods660.000
Jacoby Windmon730.501
Demani Richardson360.000
Michael Jackson610.000
Dane Jackson230.000
D.J. Wonnum230.000
Caleb Farley120.000
Jaden Crumedy120.500
Cam Gill110.000

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Baker Mayfield27/3235950225.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Bucky Irving201135.703.8
Sean Tucker8394.901.4
Rachaad White6305.000.2
Kameron Johnson11111.001.4
Jalen McMillan199.001.0
Baker Mayfield122.00-0.8
Kyle Trask3-2-0.70-4.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Mike Evans8997228%7.9
Bucky Irving4477013%5.5
Devin Culp3452013%3.3
Jalen McMillan5551216%5.9
Payne Durham233619%4.3
Ryan Miller2426013%0.9
Rakim Jarrett111103%0.6
Sean Tucker11503%-0.0
Rachaad White11403%-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Zyon McCollum510.001
Logan Hall211.000
YaYa Diaby211.000
Jordan Whitehead210.000
K.J. Britt210.000
Calijah Kancey111.000
Tykee Smith110.000
Anthony Nelson201.000
Greg Gaines110.000
Kaevon Merriweather100.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
TB -9.5
Closing total
47.5
CAR moneyline
+380
TB moneyline
-500

Buccaneers closed -9.5 and covered, winning by 34.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 62 — over by 14.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
76°F, wind 8 mph
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
CAR 7 days · TB 7 days
Coaches
Dave Canales vs Todd Bowles

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.