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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 29, 2024 · Raymond James Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 17
It turned at Q1 12:24, 1st and 10, on Payne Durham — 5.7 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 48–14 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 12:24, Buccaneers +5.7% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 12:24 · 1st and 10
Payne Durham
Buccaneers
(12:24) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 87-P.Durham to CAR 2 for 31 yards (36-D.Richardson; 25-X.Woods).
5.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Buccaneers won this one — 10 of 13 on third down, against Panthers at 2 of 9 on third down.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Buccaneers won this one — 12 chunk plays, against Panthers at 3 chunk plays.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Buccaneers won this one — 61% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Panthers at 35% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Buccaneers won this one — +0.45 expected points per snap, against Panthers at -0.10 expected points per snap.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 8.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
(12:24) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 87-P.Durham to CAR 2 for 31 yards (36-D.Richardson; 25-X.Woods).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Chase McLaughlin's 23-yard field goal with 1:16 left in the 1st put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Chase McLaughlin23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder J.Browning · snap E.DeckersLead never changed again+37–1010 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Pantherscategory by categoryBuccaneers
Buccaneers ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.70 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 46 snaps at a 76% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 71 at 49%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 2, Buccaneers 8.
Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.45 expected points added per play vs -0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CAR's play-action rate, 8.6%, is past their previous low of 10.8% in week 15 — the lowest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points. · −1.6σ from their own normal
CAR's early-down pass rate turned over: 41.7% in week 16 against 72.2% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 3.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
36 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.8 points. · +1.6σ from their own normal
TB's play-action rate turned over: 8.0% in week 16 against 31.4% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points. · +1.4σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Panthers1.8 ptsinside their normal wobble · +4.4 vs their -2.6 pts, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (+0.76× that swing) · 46 snaps
Buccaneers-0.2 ptsright on their number · −0.2 vs their -0.0 pts, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.03× that swing) · 71 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 29% to 82%
Tendencies room →Panthers72.2%leaned — passed early · +15.5 vs their 56.8%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (+1.57× that swing) · 36 early downs
Buccaneers48.3%inside their normal wobble · −6.9 vs their 55.2%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (−0.69× that swing) · 58 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 44%
Tendencies room →Panthers8.6%leaned — dropped back clean · −13.4 vs their 22.0%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−1.61× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Buccaneers31.4%leaned — faked the run · +12.1 vs their 19.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+1.39× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -53% to 123%
Fourth Down room →Panthers—Only 0 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 41.9%.
Buccaneers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 21.4%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 91%
Tendencies room →Panthers31.4%right on their number · +1.9 vs their 29.5%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+0.26× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Buccaneers48.6%right on their number · +4.7 vs their 43.9%, and they swing ±18.3 week to week (+0.26× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 31%
Tendencies room →Panthers8.6%right on their number · −1.4 vs their 10.0%, and they swing ±3.8 week to week (−0.38× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Buccaneers20.0%inside their normal wobble · +4.5 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.75× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
CAR's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 8.6%, 13.4 points below their season mean of 22.0% and 1.6 times their own 8.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Carolina Panthers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Who moved the needle
Passing · TB
27/32, 359 yds, 5 TD, 0 INT
25.2 expected points added · +20.2% completion over expected
Passing · CAR
15/28, 203 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
-2.5 expected points added · +9.9% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Adam Thielen banked 16.7 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker MayfieldQB · Starter QB | 34.6 | +9.1 | 86% | — | 0% | — | 27/32, 359 yd, 5 TD · 1 car, 2 yd |
| Mike EvansWR · Alpha Receiver | 29.7 | +7.6 | 62% | 86% | 28% | 36% | 8/9, 97 yd, 2 TD |
| Adam ThielenWR · Alpha Receiver | 28.0 | +16.7 | 85% | 89% | 27% | 37% | 5/6, 110 yd, 2 TD |
| Bucky IrvingRB · Committee Back | 23.0 | 0.0 | 55% | 51% | 13% | 0% | 20 car, 113 yd · 4/4, 77 yd |
| Jalen McMillanWR · Rotational Receiver | 23.0 | +11.4 | 69% | 83% | 16% | 12% | 1 car, 9 yd · 5/5, 51 yd, 2 TD |
| Bryce YoungQB · Starter QB | 16.9 | +5.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 15/28, 203 yd, 2 TD · 2 car, 8 yd |
| Payne DurhamTE · Rotational Receiver | 11.6 | +3.7 | 77% | 77% | 9% | 13% | 2/3, 36 yd, 1 TD |
| Devin CulpTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.2 | −0.4 | 26% | 34% | 13% | 19% | 3/4, 52 yd |
| Xavier LegetteWR · Alpha Receiver | 7.8 | −6.3 | 68% | 71% | 41% | 46% | 5/9, 28 yd |
| Jalen CokerWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.5 | +2.3 | 87% | 89% | 9% | 11% | 2/2, 35 yd |
| Sean TuckerRB | 5.4 | +0.3 | 19% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 8 car, 39 yd · 1/1, 5 yd |
| Ryan MillerWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.6 | −4.6 | 56% | 66% | 13% | 18% | 2/4, 26 yd |
| Rachaad WhiteRB | 4.4 | −0.7 | 36% | 51% | 3% | 2% | 6 car, 30 yd · 1/1, 4 yd |
| David MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.7 | +0.8 | 32% | 29% | 5% | 6% | 1/1, 17 yd |
| Rakim JarrettWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | +0.4 | 32% | 11% | 3% | 4% | 1/1, 11 yd |
| Raheem BlackshearRB · Bell Cow Back | 2.0 | −2.0 | 77% | 74% | 0% | — | 8 car, 20 yd |
| Dan ChisenaWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.4 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Ja'Tavion SandersTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | +0.4 | 55% | 57% | 5% | 1% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Mike BooneRB | 1.1 | −2.6 | 23% | 26% | 9% | 0% | 2 car, 11 yd · 0/2, 0 yd |
| Kameron JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.1 | +0.3 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Velus JonesRB | 0.0 | −0.5 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Trey PalmerWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 30% | 17% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Kyle TraskQB | -0.2 | +0.1 | 14% | — | 0% | — | 3 car, -2 yd |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(8:20) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 19-A.Thielen for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 8:20 · Panthers · 2nd & 10 at TB 17 · gained 17 · +2.71 EP · +8.3% win probability
156 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 165 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 156 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 160. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 94 yards from the TB 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Panthers0
Buccaneers6Panthers0Buccaneers7Panthers6Buccaneers7Panthers7Buccaneers7Panthers7Buccaneers10Panthers7Buccaneers13Panthers7Buccaneers19Panthers7Buccaneers20Panthers7Buccaneers26Panthers7Buccaneers27Panthers13Buccaneers27Panthers14Buccaneers27Panthers14Buccaneers33Panthers14Buccaneers34Panthers14Buccaneers40Panthers14Buccaneers41Panthers14Buccaneers47Panthers14Buccaneers48Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Panthers at Buccaneers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 15/28 | 203 | 2 | 0 | 5 | −2.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Blackshear | 8 | 20 | 2.5 | 0 | −3.4 |
| Mike Boone | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Bryce Young |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thielen | 5 | 6 | 110 | 2 | 27% | +9.2 |
| Jalen Coker | 2 | 2 | 35 | 0 | 9% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chandler Wooten | 7 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier Woods | 6 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jacoby Windmon |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 27/32 | 359 | 5 | 0 | 2 | +25.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_17_CAR_TB
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Buccaneers closed -9.5 and covered, winning by 34.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 62 — over by 14.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 2 |
| 8 |
| 4.0 |
| 0 |
| +1.1 |
| Velus Jones | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −0.7 |
| +3.5 |
| Xavier Legette | 5 | 9 | 28 | 0 | 41% | −0.6 |
| David Moore | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 5% | +0.2 |
| Dan Chisena | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 5% | +1.1 |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 5% | −0.0 |
| Mike Boone | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9% | −2.6 |
| 7 |
| 3 |
| 0.5 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Demani Richardson | 3 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Jackson | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dane Jackson | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Wonnum | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Caleb Farley | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaden Crumedy | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Cam Gill | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bucky Irving | 20 | 113 | 5.7 | 0 | +3.8 |
| Sean Tucker | 8 | 39 | 4.9 | 0 | +1.4 |
| Rachaad White | 6 | 30 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Kameron Johnson | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 | +1.4 |
| Jalen McMillan | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | +1.0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Kyle Trask | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 | −4.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 8 | 9 | 97 | 2 | 28% | +7.9 |
| Bucky Irving | 4 | 4 | 77 | 0 | 13% | +5.5 |
| Devin Culp | 3 | 4 | 52 | 0 | 13% | +3.3 |
| Jalen McMillan | 5 | 5 | 51 | 2 | 16% | +5.9 |
| Payne Durham | 2 | 3 | 36 | 1 | 9% | +4.3 |
| Ryan Miller | 2 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 13% | +0.9 |
| Rakim Jarrett | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 3% | +0.6 |
| Sean Tucker | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | −0.0 |
| Rachaad White | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | −0.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zyon McCollum | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Logan Hall | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| YaYa Diaby | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Whitehead | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| K.J. Britt | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Calijah Kancey | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tykee Smith | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Nelson | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Greg Gaines | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kaevon Merriweather | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
