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2024 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 29, 2024 · Raymond James Stadium
14
48
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 48–14 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 12:24, TB +6% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(12:24) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 87-P.Durham to CAR 2 for 31 yards (36-D.Richardson; 25-X.Woods).
How the points landed
(11:38) 77-J.Skule reported in as eligible. 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 13-M.Evans for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 0 — TB 7(8:20) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 19-A.Thielen for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 7 — TB 7(1:16) 4-C.McLaughlin 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning.
Score after this play: CAR 7 — TB 10(10:35) 4-C.McLaughlin 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning.
Score after this play: CAR 7 — TB 13(8:24) (No Huddle) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 13-M.Evans for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 7 — TB 20(1:17) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 15-J.McMillan for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 7 — TB 27(:56) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep middle to 19-A.Thielen for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 14 — TB 27(5:52) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 87-P.Durham for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 14 — TB 34(5:30) 10-J.Hekker punt is BLOCKED by 9-J.Tryon, Center-44-J.Jansen, RECOVERED by TB-51-J.Russell at CAR 23. 51-J.Russell for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 14 — TB 41(13:36) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 15-J.McMillan for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 14 — TB 48Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Panthers | Buccaneers |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 46 | 71 |
| Total yards | 204 | 553 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 4.4 | 7.8 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | -0.10 | 0.45 (edge) |
| Success rate | 35% | 61% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 76% | 49% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.04 | 0.70 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.30 | 0.22 (edge) |
| Third downs | 2/9 | 10/13 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 3 | 12 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 12 | 31 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 5 | 2 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.45 expected points added per play vs -0.10.
Who moved the needle
Passing · TB
27/32, 359 yds, 5 TD, 0 INT
25.2 expected points added · +20.2% completion over expected
Passing · CAR
15/28, 203 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
-2.5 expected points added · +9.9% completion over expected
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TB | TB 30 | 8 | 70 | 3:25 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 2 | CAR | CAR 30 | 8 | 70 | 3:20 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 3 | TB | TB 20 | 13 | 75 | 7:02 | Field goal +3 | |
| 4 | CAR | CAR 30 | 5 | -9 | 1:22 | Punt | |
| 5 | TB | TB 39 | 10 | 40 | 4:20 | Field goal +3 | |
| 6 | CAR | CAR 30 | 5 | 0 | 0:22 | Punt | |
| 7 | TB | TB 19 | 5 | 81 | 1:50 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 8 | CAR | CAR 25 | 5 | 3 | 1:30 | Punt | |
| 9 | TB | TB 36 | 12 | 59 | 5:38 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 10 | CAR | CAR 30 | 6 | 55 | 0:21 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 11 | TB | TB 17 | 5 | 12 | 0:30 | Punt | |
| 12 | CAR | CAR 24 | 4 | 36 | 0:20 | Missed field goal | |
| 13 | CAR | CAR 30 | 7 | 12 | 3:22 | Punt | |
| 14 | TB | TB 6 | 11 | 99 | 5:50 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 15 | CAR | CAR 30 | 5 | 0 | 0:25 | Defensive touchdown | |
| 16 | CAR | CAR 30 | 7 | 14 | 1:50 | Punt | |
| 17 | TB | TB 15 | 10 | 80 | 5:03 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 18 | CAR | CAR 30 | 12 | 23 | 5:57 | Turnover on downs | |
| 19 | TB | TB 48 | 11 | 37 | 7:33 | End of game |
9 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 99 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 15/28 | 203 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -2.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Blackshear | 8 | 20 | 2.5 | 0 | -3.4 |
| Mike Boone | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 | 0.8 |
| Bryce Young | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 | 1.1 |
| Velus Jones | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thielen | 5 | 6 | 110 | 2 | 27% | 9.2 |
| Jalen Coker | 2 | 2 | 35 | 0 | 9% | 3.5 |
| Xavier Legette | 5 | 9 | 28 | 0 | 41% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chandler Wooten | 7 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier Woods | 6 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jacoby Windmon | 7 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
| Demani Richardson |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 27/32 | 359 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 25.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | 20 | 113 | 5.7 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Buccaneers closed -9.5 and covered, winning by 34.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 62 — over by 14.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| -0.6 |
| David Moore | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 5% | 0.2 |
| Dan Chisena | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 5% | 1.1 |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 5% | -0.0 |
| Mike Boone | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9% | -2.6 |
| 3 |
| 6 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Michael Jackson | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dane Jackson | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Wonnum | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Caleb Farley | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaden Crumedy | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Cam Gill | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3.8 |
| Sean Tucker | 8 | 39 | 4.9 | 0 | 1.4 |
| Rachaad White | 6 | 30 | 5.0 | 0 | 0.2 |
| Kameron Johnson | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 | 1.4 |
| Jalen McMillan | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | 1.0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | -0.8 |
| Kyle Trask | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 | -4.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 8 | 9 | 97 | 2 | 28% | 7.9 |
| Bucky Irving | 4 | 4 | 77 | 0 | 13% | 5.5 |
| Devin Culp | 3 | 4 | 52 | 0 | 13% | 3.3 |
| Jalen McMillan | 5 | 5 | 51 | 2 | 16% | 5.9 |
| Payne Durham | 2 | 3 | 36 | 1 | 9% | 4.3 |
| Ryan Miller | 2 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 13% | 0.9 |
| Rakim Jarrett | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 3% | 0.6 |
| Sean Tucker | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | -0.0 |
| Rachaad White | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | -0.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zyon McCollum | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Logan Hall | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| YaYa Diaby | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Whitehead | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| K.J. Britt | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Calijah Kancey | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tykee Smith | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Nelson | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Greg Gaines | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kaevon Merriweather | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
