For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:24 AM ET · 16 to play
2024 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 29, 2024 · Raymond James Stadium
Final
PanthersCarolina14
BY 34final margin
BuccaneersTampa Bay48
Carolina Panthers 14 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 48. Final.
Buccaneers -9.5 ✓O 47.5 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 17
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 48, Panthers 14 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 12:24, 1st and 10, on Payne Durham — 5.7 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 12:24 · 1st and 10
Payne Durham
Buccaneers
(12:24) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 87-P.Durham to CAR 2 for 31 yards (36-D.Richardson; 25-X.Woods).
Buccaneers closed -9.5 and covered, winning by 34.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 48–14 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 12:24, Buccaneers +5.7% win probability on one snap.
5.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Adam ThielenPanthersQ1 8:20(8:20) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 19-A.Thielen for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
5.4pts
Devin CulpBuccaneersQ1 6:09(6:09) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 82-D.Culp pushed ob at CAR 22 for 26 yards (36-D.Richardson). Penalty on CAR-52-Dj.Johnson, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.
4.8pts
What separated them
Third down
Buccaneers won this one — 10 of 13 on third down, against Panthers at 2 of 9 on third down.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Buccaneers won this one — 12 chunk plays, against Panthers at 3 chunk plays.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Buccaneers won this one — 61% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Panthers at 35% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Buccaneers won this one — +0.45 expected points per snap, against Panthers at -0.10 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Buccaneershigher on Panthers158 of 165 plays carry both curves
(12:24) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 87-P.Durham to CAR 2 for 31 yards (36-D.Richardson; 25-X.Woods).
Swing +5.7 for BuccaneersExpected points +2.34 for BuccaneersThe model had Panthers 18 points higher than the market did.play 7
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 12:24TB +6% win prob(12:24) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 87-P.Durham to CAR 2 for 31 yards (36-D.Richardson; 25-X.Woods).
1st · 8:20TB +5% win prob(8:20) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 19-A.Thielen for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 6:09TB +5% win prob(6:09) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 82-D.Culp pushed ob at CAR 22 for 26 yards (36-D.Richardson). Penalty on CAR-52-Dj.Johnson, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.
2nd · 8:56TB +5% win prob(8:56) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 7-B.Irving ran ob at CAR 1 for 42 yards (25-X.Woods).
1st · 4:12TB +4% win prob(4:12) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 82-D.Culp to CAR 2 for 17 yards (25-X.Woods; 98-D.Wonnum).
1st · 0:25CAR +3% win prob(:25) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at CAR 21 for -10 yards (94-C.Kancey).
1st · 2:00
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Chase McLaughlin's 23-yard field goal with 1:16 left in the 1st put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Buccaneers ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.70 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.10Panthers: −0.10 expected points added per play
+0.45Buccaneers: +0.45 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.04Panthers: −0.04 expected points added per play
+0.70Buccaneers: +0.70 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.30Panthers: −0.30 expected points added per play
+0.22Buccaneers: +0.22 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 46 snaps at a 76% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 71 at 49%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 2, Buccaneers 8.
NoteBuccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.45 expected points added per play vs -0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CAR's early-down pass rate turned over: 41.7% in week 16 against 72.2% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 3.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
36 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.8 points.
TB's play-action rate turned over: 8.0% in week 16 against 31.4% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 16 pts
right on their number · −1.4 vs their 10.0%, and they swing ±3.8 week to week (−0.38× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Buccaneers20.0%
inside their normal wobble · +4.5 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.75× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
NoteCAR's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 8.6%, 13.4 points below their season mean of 22.0% and 1.6 times their own 8.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Panthers←Buccaneers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Young pass+8% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(8:20) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 19-A.Thielen for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 8:20 · Panthers · 2nd & 10 at TB 17 · gained 17 · +2.71 EP · +8.3% win probability
156 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 165 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 156 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 160. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 94 yards from the TB 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
165 of 165 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
165
EPA per play
+0.12
Success rate
53%
Yards
755
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR48+0.3552%
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37-0.1676%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.3633%
Buccaneers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8+0.9838%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Panthers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Panthers0Buccaneers6
Panthers0Buccaneers7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Buccaneers 30 to the Panthers 2
Panthers6Buccaneers7
Panthers7Buccaneers7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Buccaneers 17
Panthers7Buccaneers10
Field goal13 plays, from the Buccaneers 20 to the Panthers 2
The period ended5 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Panthers 31
2nd quarter60 plays
Punt1 play
Panthers7Buccaneers13
Field goal10 plays, from the Buccaneers 39 to the Panthers 16
Punt5 plays
Panthers7Buccaneers19
Panthers7Buccaneers20
Touchdown5 plays, from the Buccaneers 19 to the Panthers 1
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 28
Panthers7Buccaneers26
Panthers7Buccaneers27
Touchdown13 plays, from the Buccaneers 36 to the Panthers 10
Panthers13Buccaneers27
Panthers14Buccaneers27
Touchdown6 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Buccaneers 40
The period ended8 plays, from the Buccaneers 17 to the Buccaneers 24
No good6 plays, from the Panthers 24 to the Buccaneers 35
3rd quarter41 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Panthers 48
Panthers14Buccaneers33
Panthers14Buccaneers34
Touchdown12 plays, from the Buccaneers 6 to the Panthers 5
Panthers14Buccaneers40
Touchdown5 plays
Panthers14Buccaneers41
Punt8 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Panthers 44
The period ended7 plays, from the Buccaneers 15 to the Panthers 36
4th quarter29 plays
Panthers14Buccaneers47
Panthers14Buccaneers48
Touchdown5 plays, from the Panthers 24 to the Panthers 16
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Buccaneers 33
The period ended12 plays, from the Buccaneers 48 to the Panthers 15
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
