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Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 29, 2024 · Lincoln Financial Field
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 17
It turned at Q1 11:55, 3rd and 3, on Chauncey Gardner-Johnson — 16.1 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 11:55 · 3rd and 3
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson
Eagles
(11:55) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short middle intended for 3-B.Cooks INTERCEPTED by 8-C.Gardner-Johnson [93-M.Williams] at PHI 31. 8-C.Gardner-Johnson for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Philadelphia Eagles 41–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 11:55, Eagles +16.1% win probability on one snap.
16.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Eagles won this one — +0.75 expected points per dropback, against Cowboys at -0.46 expected points per dropback.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Eagles won this one — no giveaways, against Cowboys at 4 giveaways.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Eagles won this one — +0.27 expected points per snap, against Cowboys at -0.30 expected points per snap.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Eagles won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Cowboys at 4 chunk plays.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 7.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cowboys.
(11:55) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short middle intended for 3-B.Cooks INTERCEPTED by 8-C.Gardner-Johnson [93-M.Williams] at PHI 31. 8-C.Gardner-Johnson for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
DeVonta Smith's 22-yard touchdown catch with 6:44 left in the 2nd put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
DeVonta Smith22-yd TD catch22-yard touchdown catchfrom Kenny PickettLead never changed again+77–148 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Cowboyscategory by categoryEagles
Eagles ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.75 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 60 snaps at a 52% dropback rate against Eagles’s 59 at 32%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 2, Eagles 6.
Eagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.27 expected points added per play vs -0.30.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
PHI's pass rate over expected, −26.4 pts, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 17 — 9.8 points clear of the next team along.
59 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points.
DAL's pass rate over expected, −13.5 pts, is past their previous low of −10.3 pts in week 10 — the lowest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
60 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.6 points.
DAL's play-action rate turned over: 13.9% in week 16 against 32.3% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 13 pts
Over Expected room →Cowboys-13.5 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −11.1 vs their -2.4 pts, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (−1.98× that swing) · 60 snaps
Eagles-26.4 ptsoff script — ran more than the situation asked · −17.4 vs their -9.0 pts, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−2.26× that swing) · 59 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 11% to 86%
Tendencies room →Cowboys47.8%inside their normal wobble · −9.8 vs their 57.7%, and they swing ±10.7 week to week (−0.92× that swing) · 46 early downs
Eagles28.9%leaned — ran early · −14.9 vs their 43.8%, and they swing ±12.4 week to week (−1.21× that swing) · 45 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 47%
Tendencies room →Cowboys32.3%leaned — faked the run · +13.8 vs their 18.4%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+1.82× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Eagles31.6%inside their normal wobble · +7.7 vs their 23.9%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (+0.88× that swing) · 19 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -44% to 127%
Fourth Down room →Cowboys—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 41.5%.
Eagles33.3%inside their normal wobble · −12.8 vs their 46.1%, and they swing ±24.7 week to week (−0.52× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 53%
Tendencies room →Cowboys36.8%inside their normal wobble · +4.3 vs their 32.5%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+0.58× that swing) · 19 dropbacks
Eagles29.0%inside their normal wobble · +5.3 vs their 23.8%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (+0.54× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 39%
Tendencies room →Cowboys5.3%leaned — stayed blocked · −10.9 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−1.22× that swing) · 19 dropbacks
Eagles9.7%right on their number · −3.7 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (−0.47× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
PHI's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -26.4 pts, 17.4 points below their season mean of -9.0 pts and 2.3 times their own 7.7-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Dallas Cowboys
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Who moved the needle
Passing · DAL
15/28, 147 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-8.8 expected points added · -10.6% completion over expected
Passing · PHI
10/15, 143 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
7.0 expected points added · +7.1% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
DeVonta Smith banked 18.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta SmithWR · Alpha Receiver | 30.0 | +18.9 | 80% | 95% | 39% | 42% | 6/7, 120 yd, 2 TD |
| Saquon BarkleyRB · Bell Cow Back | 18.9 | −3.3 | 75% | 63% | 11% | 1% | 31 car, 167 yd · 2/2, 2 yd |
| Kenny PickettQB · Starter QB | 16.0 | +2.6 | 68% | — | 0% | — | 10/15, 143 yd, 1 TD · 3 car, 3 yd, 1 TD |
| A.J. BrownWR · Alpha Receiver | 12.6 | +2.9 | 91% | 100% | 28% | 34% | 3/5, 36 yd, 1 TD |
| Jalen TolbertWR · Rotational Receiver | 12.0 | +5.7 | 68% | 65% | 14% | 6% | 3/4, 30 yd, 1 TD |
| Tanner McKeeQB | 10.0 | +6.9 | 32% | — | 0% | — | 3/4, 54 yd, 2 TD · 2 car, -2 yd |
| Rico DowdleRB · Bell Cow Back | 9.8 | −2.5 | 66% | 55% | 3% | 0% | 23 car, 104 yd · 1/1, 4 yd |
| Brandin CooksWR · Alpha Receiver | 9.2 | −1.3 | 68% | 71% | 28% | 55% | 4/8, 52 yd |
| Cooper RushQB · Starter QB | 6.1 | −3.1 | 95% | — | 0% | — | 15/28, 147 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 1 car, 2 yd |
| Kavontae TurpinWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.4 | −2.7 | 53% | 58% | 14% | 3% | 2 car, 18 yd · 1/4, 16 yd |
| Grant CalcaterraTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.4 | +1.5 | 80% | 89% | 11% | 18% | 1/2, 34 yd |
| Jake FergusonTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | −3.8 | 68% | 74% | 17% | 10% | 3/5, 18 yd |
| Jonathan MingoWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.2 | −2.2 | 48% | 52% | 10% | 19% | 1/3, 12 yd |
| Jalen BrooksWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.2 | +0.8 | 21% | 19% | 3% | 5% | 1/1, 12 yd |
| Kenneth GainwellRB | 1.9 | −1.8 | 23% | 37% | 6% | 0% | 3 car, 4 yd · 1/1, 5 yd |
| Ryan FlournoyWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | −1.1 | 21% | 19% | 7% | 3% | 1/2, 3 yd |
| Hunter LuepkeRB | 1.1 | −0.1 | 23% | 23% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 1 yd |
| Tyrion Davis-PriceRB | 0.7 | −0.8 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Ezekiel ElliottRB | 0.2 | −2.0 | 16% | 19% | 0% | — | 3 car, 2 yd |
| Trey LanceQB | 0.1 | −0.8 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| E.J. JenkinsTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.1 | 17% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 0/1, 0 yd |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(11:55) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short middle intended for 3-B.Cooks INTERCEPTED by 8-C.Gardner-Johnson [93-M.Williams] at PHI 31. 8-C.Gardner-Johnson for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 11:55 · Cowboys · 3rd & 3 at PHI 35 · gained nothing · -9.74 EP · −25.0% win probability
156 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 168 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 156 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 163. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 81 yards from the PHI 19 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Cowboys0
Eagles6Cowboys0Eagles7Cowboys6Eagles7Cowboys7Eagles7How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
Cowboys7Eagles13Cowboys7Eagles14Cowboys7Eagles17Cowboys7Eagles23Cowboys7Eagles24Cowboys7Eagles27Cowboys7Eagles33Cowboys7Eagles34Cowboys7Eagles40Cowboys7Eagles41Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Cowboys at Eagles, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Rush | 15/28 | 147 | 1 | 2 | 1 | −8.8 |
| Trey Lance | 1/1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Dowdle | 23 | 104 | 4.5 | 0 | −4.1 |
| Kavontae Turpin | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 | +1.3 |
| Cooper Rush |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 4 | 8 | 52 | 0 | 28% | −6.4 |
| Jalen Tolbert | 3 | 4 | 30 | 1 | 14% | +2.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Hooker | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Kendricks | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daron Bland | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Andrew Booth |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Pickett | 10/15 | 143 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +7.0 |
| Tanner McKee | 3/4 | 54 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +7.2 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_17_DAL_PHI
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Eagles closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 34.
Total closed 37.5; the game landed 48 — over by 10.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 1 |
| 2 |
| 2.0 |
| 0 |
| +0.4 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 | −1.6 |
| Trey Lance | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Jake Ferguson | 3 | 5 | 18 | 0 | 17% | −4.8 |
| Kavontae Turpin | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 14% | −0.5 |
| Jonathan Mingo | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 10% | −1.6 |
| Jalen Brooks | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 3% | +1.4 |
| Rico Dowdle | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | −0.1 |
| Ryan Flournoy | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7% | −1.4 |
| Hunter Luepke | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Jourdan Lewis | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chauncey Golston | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Marist Liufau | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mazi Smith | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Micah Parsons | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Osa Odighizuwa | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 31 | 167 | 5.4 | 0 | +1.3 |
| Tyrion Davis-Price | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 | −1.9 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 | −1.4 |
| Kenny Pickett | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 1 | +3.7 |
| Tanner McKee | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta Smith | 6 | 7 | 120 | 2 | 39% | +12.5 |
| A.J. Brown | 3 | 5 | 36 | 1 | 28% | +2.3 |
| Grant Calcaterra | 1 | 2 | 34 | 0 | 11% | +2.8 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 6% | −0.7 |
| Saquon Barkley | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11% | −1.1 |
| E.J. Jenkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −0.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oren Burks | 2 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zack Baun | 1 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jalyx Hunt | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cooper DeJean | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Thomas Booker | 2 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Quinyon Mitchell | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Josh Sweat | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reed Blankenship | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremiah Trotter | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Darius Slay | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
