2024 Week 17 · Sat, Dec 28, 2024 · Paycor Stadium

Denver Broncos

Cincinnati BengalsWinner

CIN -3.5 ✓O 50.5 ✓Bengals closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 6.

Cincinnati Bengals 30–24. Biggest swing: OT 2:29, CIN +63% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

OT · 2:29DEN 24 — CIN 24DEN ball · 4th & 8CIN 89%

(2:29) 9-R.Dixon punts 38 yards to CIN 37, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-85-L.Krull.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

OT · 2:29CIN +63% win prob(2:29) 9-R.Dixon punts 38 yards to CIN 37, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-85-L.Krull.
OT · 1:14CIN +44% win prob(1:14) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 5-T.Higgins ran ob at DEN 3 for 31 yards. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
OT · 6:51CIN +44% win prob(6:51) 8-R.Rehkow punts 47 yards to DEN 10, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.
Q4 · 0:14CIN +35% win prob(:14) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep right to 19-M.Mims for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN [52-C.Johnson]. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 9:49DEN Field goal
(9:49) 3-W.Lutz 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Score after this play: DEN 3 — CIN 0
Q2 · 1:52CIN Touchdown
(1:52) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 5-T.Higgins for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 3 — CIN 7
Q3 · 9:11CIN Field goal
(9:11) 3-C.York 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
Score after this play: DEN 3 — CIN 10
Q3 · 3:14DEN Touchdown
(3:14) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 14-C.Sutton for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 10 — CIN 10
Q4 · 11:37CIN Touchdown
(11:37) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 5-T.Higgins for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 10 — CIN 17
Q4 · 8:56DEN Touchdown
(8:56) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep middle to 19-M.Mims for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 17 — CIN 17
Q4 · 1:31CIN Touchdown
(1:31) 62-M.Lee reported in as eligible. 9-J.Burrow up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 17 — CIN 24
Q4 · 0:14DEN Touchdown
(:14) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep right to 19-M.Mims for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN [52-C.Johnson]. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 24 — CIN 24
OT · 1:10CIN Touchdown
(1:10) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 5-T.Higgins for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: DEN 24 — CIN 30

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Broncos	Bengals
Offensive plays	60	83
Total yards	329	500 (edge)
Yards per play	5.5	6.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.17 (edge)	0.14
Success rate	45%	54% (edge)
Dropback rate	65%	70%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.25	0.30 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.03 (edge)	-0.23
Third downs	4/12	8/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	19	30 (edge)
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	7
Turnovers	1	1

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

39/49, 412 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

18.6 expected points added · +14.5% completion over expected

Passing · DEN

Bo NixQB

24/31, 219 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

9.5 expected points added · +9.4% completion over expected

Rushing · DEN

Jaleel McLaughlinRB

10 att, 69 yds, 0 TD

3.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CIN

Chase BrownRB

20 att, 67 yds, 0 TD

-6.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CIN

Tee HigginsWR

11/12 for 131 yds, 3 TD

24% of team targets · 12.1 expected points added

Receiving · DEN

Marvin MimsWR

8/8 for 103 yds, 2 TD

26% of team targets · 10.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DEN	DEN 30	11	58	5:15	Field goal +3
2	CIN	CIN 30	12	48	5:22	Turnover on downs
3	DEN	DEN 23	6	19	3:51	Punt
4	CIN	CIN 27	17	57	9:14	Turnover on downs
5	DEN	DEN 5	4	9	1:23	Punt
6	CIN	CIN 38	8	57	3:06	Touchdown +7
7	DEN	DEN 30	8	16	1:49	End of half
8	CIN	CIN 28	12	65	5:53	Field goal +3
9	DEN	DEN 30	14	70	5:57	Touchdown +7
10	CIN	CIN 37	13	68	6:37	Touchdown +7
11	DEN	DEN 25	7	75	2:45	Touchdown +7
12	CIN	CIN 30	7	27	3:40	Fumble
13	DEN	DEN 40	6	6	2:38	Interception
14	CIN	CIN 41	7	59	1:01	Touchdown +7
15	DEN	DEN 30	9	70	1:21	Touchdown +7
16	CIN	CIN 30	2	0	0:08	Turnover on downs
17	CIN	CIN 26	7	12	3:17	Punt
18	DEN	DEN 10	4	4	1:35	Punt
19	CIN	CIN 46	6	44	2:25	Missed field goal
20	DEN	DEN 23	4	2	0:23	Punt
21	CIN	CIN 37	5	63	1:13	Touchdown +6

9 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 75 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Bo Nix	24/31	219	3	1	2	9.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Jaleel McLaughlin	10	69	6.9	3.1
Bo Nix	7	31	4.4	0.6
Audric Estime	9	24	2.7	-2.0
Marvin Mims	1	-1	-1.0	-0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Marvin Mims	8	8	103	2	26%	10.9
Courtland Sutton	5	9	55	1	29%	0.2
Devaughn Vele	2	2	27	0	6%	2.9
Audric Estime	1	1	13	0	3%	1.3
Jaleel McLaughlin	2	2	7	0	6%	-0.7
Nate Adkins	1	1	7	0	3%	0.1
Adam Trautman	1	3	5	0	10%	-1.2
Lucas Krull	1	1	3	0	3%	-0.1
Javonte Williams	2	2	0	0	6%	-0.9
Troy Franklin	1	2	-1	0	6%	-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Riley Moss	11	3	0.0	0
Brandon Jones	8	4	0.0	0
P.J. Locke	6	3	0.0	0
Zach Allen	2	5	3.5	0
Patrick Surtain	4	2	0.0	0
Ja'Quan McMillian	5	1	0.0	0
Cody Barton	2	3	0.0	1
Jonathon Cooper	3	1	1.5	0
Drew Sanders	1	3	0.0	0
Devon Key	2	1	0.0	0

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Burrow	39/49	412	3	0	7	18.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Chase Brown	20	67	3.4	0	-6.0
Joe Burrow	4	25	6.3	1	4.7
Khalil Herbert	4	23	5.8	0	-1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tee Higgins	11	12	131	3	24%	12.1
Ja'Marr Chase	9	15	102	0	31%	2.7
Mike Gesicki	10	12	86	0	24%	4.0
Andrei Iosivas	3	4	59	0	8%	1.1
Chase Brown	4	4	24	0	8%	3.0
Cam Grandy	1	1	7	0	2%	0.4
Drew Sample	1	1	3	0	2%	0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Germaine Pratt	5	3	0.0	1	1
Joseph Ossai	5	3	0.5	0	1
Cam Taylor-Britt	7	1	0.0	0	0
Mike Hilton	3	3	0.0	0	0
Akeem Davis-Gaither	3	3	0.0	0	0
Jordan Battle	2	3	0.0	0	0
Josh Newton	4	1	0.0	0	0
B.J. Hill	1	3	0.0	0	0
Geno Stone	2	2	0.0	0	0
Trey Hendrickson	2	1	0.5	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CIN -3.5
Closing total: 50.5
DEN moneyline: +145
CIN moneyline: -175

Bengals closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 6.

Total closed 50.5; the game landed 54 — over by 3.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Paycor Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 60°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Adrian Hill
Rest: DEN 9 days · CIN 6 days
Coaches: Sean Payton vs Zac Taylor