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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:23 AM ET · 16 to play
Denver Broncos 24 at Cincinnati Bengals 30. Final.
Bengals -3.5 ✓O 50.5 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 17
Cincinnati Bengals 30, Broncos 24 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at OT 2:29, 4th and 8 — 62.7 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · OT 2:29 · 4th and 8
Unnamed on the sheet
Broncos
(2:29) 9-R.Dixon punts 38 yards to CIN 37, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-85-L.Krull.
Bengals closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 6.
Cincinnati Bengals 30–24. Biggest swing: OT 2:29, Broncos +62.7% win probability on one snap.
62.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetBengalsOT 6:51(6:51) 8-R.Rehkow punts 47 yards to DEN 10, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.
44.4pts
Tee HigginsBengalsOT 1:14(1:14) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 5-T.Higgins ran ob at DEN 3 for 31 yards. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
44.5pts
What separated them
Third down
Bengals won this one — 8 of 13 on third down, against Broncos at 4 of 12 on third down.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Bengals won this one — 54% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Broncos at 45% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Broncos owned this one and still lost it — +0.03 expected points per carry, against Bengals at -0.23 expected points per carry.
Broncosthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Bengals won this one — 4 touchdowns on 7 trips, against Broncos at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
2 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so those portraits are withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bengalshigher on Broncos180 of 199 plays carry both curves
(2:29) 9-R.Dixon punts 38 yards to CIN 37, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-85-L.Krull.
Swing −62.7 for BengalsExpected points +0.75 for BengalsModel and market agree here.play 193
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 2:29CIN +63% win prob(2:29) 9-R.Dixon punts 38 yards to CIN 37, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-85-L.Krull.
Overtime · 1:14CIN +44% win prob(1:14) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 5-T.Higgins ran ob at DEN 3 for 31 yards. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Overtime · 6:51CIN +44% win prob(6:51) 8-R.Rehkow punts 47 yards to DEN 10, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.
4th · 0:14CIN +35% win prob(:14) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep right to 19-M.Mims for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN [52-C.Johnson]. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Overtime · 5:16CIN +26% win prob(5:16) 9-R.Dixon punts 40 yards to CIN 46, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 18-I.Williams.
Overtime · 2:49DEN +26% win prob(2:49) 3-C.York 33 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tee Higgins's 3-yard touchdown catch with 1:10 left in overtime put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st9:49Wil Lutz·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap M.Fraboni+33–0
2nd1:52Tee Higgins·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow+73–7
3rd9:11Cade York·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder R.Rehkow · snap C.Adomitis+33–10
3rd3:14Courtland Sutton·6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Bo Nixfrom Bo Nix+710–10
4th11:37Tee Higgins·12-yd TD catch12-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow+710–17
4th8:56Marvin Mims·51-yd TD catch51-yard touchdown catchfrom Bo Nixfrom Bo Nix+717–17
4th0:14Marvin Mims·25-yd TD catch25-yard touchdown catchfrom Bo Nixfrom Bo Nix+724–24
Overtime1:10Tee Higgins·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe BurrowLead never changed again+624–30
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Broncoscategory by categoryBengals
Broncos2–6Bengals
329Total yards500
5.5Yards per play6.0
45%Success rate54%
33%Third-down rate62%
1Red-zone touchdowns4
6Explosive plays5
19First downs30
2Sacks taken7
1Turnovers1
The read
Bengals ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.17Broncos: +0.17 expected points added per play
+0.14Bengals: +0.14 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.25Broncos: +0.25 expected points added per play
+0.30Bengals: +0.30 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.03Broncos: +0.03 expected points added per play
−0.23Bengals: −0.23 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 60 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Bengals’s 83 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 4, Bengals 7.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CIN's play-action rate turned over: 27.8% in week 16 against 12.1% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
58 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.8 points.
DEN's pass rate over expected turned over: +6.5 pts in week 16 against −6.3 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
60 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points.
CIN's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 0.0% in week 16 against 75.0% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 8 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 27.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 25 pts
right on their number · +1.3 vs their 19.4%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+0.18× that swing) · 58 dropbacks
Bengals10.3%
inside their normal wobble · −5.1 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.63× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
NoteCIN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 15.4 pts, 7.5 points above their season mean of 7.9 pts and 1.2 times their own 6.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Broncos←Bengals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
R.Dixon punts+63% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(2:29) 9-R.Dixon punts 38 yards to CIN 37, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-85-L.Krull.
OT 2:29 · Broncos · 4th & 8 at DEN 25 · gained nothing · -0.75 EP · +62.7% win probability
178 snaps placed · 21 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 199 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 178 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 193. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 75 yards from the DEN 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
199 of 199 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
199
EPA per play
+0.11
Success rate
48%
Yards
828
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR54+0.3274%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42+0.1457%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21-0.1057%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.4040%
Bengals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Broncos0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR3——
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Bengals1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Bengals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Broncos1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
199 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
199 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Broncos3Bengals0
Field goal12 plays, from the Broncos 30 to the Bengals 12
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
The period ended13 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Broncos 22
Punt7 plays, from the Broncos 23 to the Broncos 37
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter43 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the sack was on the quarterback, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Turnover on downs18 plays, from the Bengals 39 to the Broncos 1
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 5 to the Broncos 14
Broncos3Bengals6
Broncos3Bengals7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Bengals 38 to the Broncos 2
The period ended11 plays, from the Broncos 30 to the Bengals 45
3rd quarter39 plays
Broncos3Bengals10
Field goal16 plays, from the Bengals 28 to the Broncos 3
Broncos9Bengals10
Broncos10Bengals10
Touchdown14 plays, from the Broncos 30 to the Bengals 6
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
The period ended9 plays, from the Bengals 37 to midfield
4th quarter49 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.3 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Broncos10Bengals16
Broncos10Bengals17
Touchdown7 plays, from the Broncos 36 to the Broncos 12
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
Broncos16Bengals17
Broncos17Bengals17
Touchdown7 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 49
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runDeep outCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Bengals 30 to midfield
How the play was built
A screen, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Broncos 40 to the Bengals 48
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.8 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.7 seconds
Broncos17Bengals23
Broncos17Bengals24
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bengals 41 to the Broncos 1
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
Broncos23Bengals24
Broncos24Bengals24
Touchdown10 plays, from the Broncos 30 to the Bengals 25
The period ended3 plays
Overtime32 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Punt7 plays, from the Bengals 26 to midfield
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 10 to the Broncos 14
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.8 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, four linebackers and three backsIn the boxEight defenders
No good9 plays, from the Bengals 46 to the Broncos 14
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 23 to the Broncos 26
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, four linebackers and three backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.6 seconds
Broncos24Bengals30
Touchdown5 plays, from the Bengals 37 to the Broncos 3
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
