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2024 Week 17 · Mon, Dec 30, 2024 · Levi's Stadium

Detroit LionsWinner

40

San Francisco 49ers

34

DET -4 ✓O 50.5 ✓

Detroit Lions 40–34. Biggest swing: Q3 0:22, SF +18% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3SF ↑DET ↓
Q3 · 0:22DET 30 — SF 28DET ball · 4th & 4DET 53%

(:22) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q3 · 0:22SF +18% win prob(:22) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q3 · 4:11DET +18% win prob(4:11) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep middle intended for 14-R.Pearsall INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Joseph at DET 31. 31-K.Joseph to SF 43 for 26 yards (75-C.Heck).
  3. Q4 · 7:41DET +17% win prob(7:41) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle intended for 14-R.Pearsall INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Joseph at DET 25. 31-K.Joseph to DET 38 for 13 yards (1-D.Samuel).
  4. Q2 · 10:17SF +16% win prob(10:17) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to SF 41 for 1 yard. Lateral to 9-Ja.Williams for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: SF-53-D.Winters has returned to the game.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 8:40SF Touchdown

    (8:40) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 14-R.Pearsall for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 0 — SF 7
  2. Q1 · 3:47DET Touchdown

    (3:47) 9-Ja.Williams left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: DET 6 — SF 7
  3. Q2 · 15:00SF Touchdown

    (15:00) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 44-K.Juszczyk for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 6 — SF 14
  4. Q2 · 10:17DET Touchdown

    (10:17) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to SF 41 for 1 yard. Lateral to 9-Ja.Williams for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: SF-53-D.Winters has returned to the game. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 13 — SF 14
  5. Q2 · 6:20SF Touchdown

    (6:20) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy scrambles up the middle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 13 — SF 21
  6. Q3 · 10:02DET Touchdown

    (10:02) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 87-S.LaPorta for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: DET 21 — SF 21
  7. Q3 · 7:44SF Touchdown

    (7:44) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 1-D.Samuel for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 21 — SF 28
  8. Q3 · 4:31DET Field goal

    (4:31) 39-J.Bates 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

    Score after this play: DET 24 — SF 28
  9. Q3 · 0:22DET Touchdown

    (:22) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 31 — SF 28
  10. Q4 · 10:34DET Field goal

    (10:34) 39-J.Bates 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

    Score after this play: DET 34 — SF 28
  11. Q4 · 3:06DET Touchdown

    (3:06) (Shotgun) 26-J.Gibbs right end for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: DET 40 — SF 28
  12. Q4 · 0:50SF Touchdown

    (:50) (Shotgun) 5-J.Dobbs scrambles right end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: DET 40 — SF 34

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricLions49ers
Offensive plays6759
Total yards444475 (edge)
Yards per play6.68.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.39 (edge)0.34
Success rate57%61% (edge)
Dropback rate55%73%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.59 (edge)0.48
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.13 (edge)-0.01
Third downs9/14 (edge)5/8
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)7 (edge)6
First downs gained on snaps2426 (edge)
Sacks taken22
Turnovers0 (edge)2

49ers outgained Lions 475–444 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

Brock PurdyQB

27/35, 377 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT

13.3 expected points added · +17.5% completion over expected

Passing · DET

Jared GoffQB

26/34, 303 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

21.9 expected points added · +11.9% completion over expected

Rushing · DET

Jahmyr GibbsRB

18 att, 117 yds, 1 TD

3.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SF

Isaac GuerendoRB

9 att, 34 yds, 0 TD

-1.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SF

Ricky PearsallWR

8/10 for 141 yds, 1 TD

28% of team targets · 1.7 expected points added

Receiving · SF

George KittleTE

8/8 for 112 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 7.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1SFSF 3913616:23Touchdown +7
2DETDET 3511654:55Touchdown +6
3SFSF 308603:49Touchdown +7
4DETDET 2510854:44Touchdown +7
5SFSF 309703:56Touchdown +7
6DETDET 3013625:00Turnover on downs
7SFSF 88691:11Missed field goal
8DETDET 41100:02End of half
9DETDET 3412685:02Touchdown +8
10SFSF 168842:18Touchdown +7
11DETDET 307313:15Field goal +3
12SFSF 33200:27Interception
13DETSF 439433:39Touchdown +7
14SFSF 308301:54Missed field goal
15DETDET 488282:56Field goal +3
16SFSF 306292:55Interception
17DETDET 388624:36Touchdown +6
18SFSF 2813722:15Touchdown +6
19DET50300:43End of game

12 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Lions gained 85 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Detroit Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jared Goff26/3430330221.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jahmyr Gibbs181176.513.6
Craig Reynolds7314.40-0.3
Jermar Jefferson393.00-0.4
Jameson Williams2-2-1.011.1
Jared Goff3-3-1.00-1.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jameson Williams5877124%0.7
Sam LaPorta6864124%4.2
Amon-Ra St. Brown81060130%12.2
Jahmyr Gibbs4446012%2.9
Craig Reynolds223506%3.2
Allen Robinson112103%2.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jack Campbell450.000
Brian Branch431.000
Kerby Joseph510.022
Trevor Nowaske320.000
Terrion Arnold500.000
Ifeatu Melifonwu400.000
Ben Niemann120.000
Pat O'Connor120.000
Amik Robertson200.001
Jalen Reeves-Maybin200.000

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Brock Purdy27/3537732213.3
Joshua Dobbs3/4350002.8
Ricky Pearsall0/10000-0.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Isaac Guerendo9343.80-1.2
Deebo Samuel3165.300.5
Brock Purdy3124.013.7
Joshua Dobbs177.012.3
Ricky Pearsall263.00-0.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Ricky Pearsall810141128%1.7
George Kittle88112022%7.8
Jauan Jennings71067028%3.5
Isaac Guerendo4465011%2.6
Chris Conley111303%1.2
Kyle Juszczyk12916%0.8
Deebo Samuel11513%1.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Deommodore Lenoir540.000
Nick Bosa532.000
Dee Winters350.000
Isaac Yiadom610.000
Fred Warner330.000
Talanoa Hufanga510.000
Renardo Green220.001
Malik Mustapha400.000
Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles110.000
Sam Okuayinonu200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
DET -4
Closing total
50.5
DET moneyline
-230
SF moneyline
+190

Lions closed -4 and covered, winning by 6.

Total closed 50.5; the game landed 74 — over by 23.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
—
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
DET 8 days · SF 8 days
Coaches
Dan Campbell vs Kyle Shanahan