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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:23 AM ET · 16 to play
Detroit Lions 40 at San Francisco 49ers 34. Final.
Lions -4 ✓O 50.5 ✓
The verdict · 2024 Week 17
Detroit Lions 40, 49ers 34 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 0:22, 4th and 4, on A.St. — 18.0 win-probability points to the Lions on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 0:22 · 4th and 4
A.St.
Lions
(:22) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
18.0
Lions closed -4 and covered, winning by 6.
Detroit Lions 40–34. Biggest swing: Q3 0:22, Lions +18.0% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Kerby JosephLionsQ3 4:11(4:11) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep middle intended for 14-R.Pearsall INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Joseph at DET 31. 31-K.Joseph to SF 43 for 26 yards (75-C.Heck).
17.6pts
Kerby JosephLionsQ4 7:41(7:41) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle intended for 14-R.Pearsall INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Joseph at DET 25. 31-K.Joseph to DET 38 for 13 yards (1-D.Samuel).
17.0pts
What separated them
Red zone
49ers owned this one and still lost it — 5 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Lions at 3 touchdowns on 6 trips.
49ersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Lions won this one — no giveaways, against 49ers at 2 giveaways.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Lions won this one — +0.13 expected points per carry, against 49ers at -0.01 expected points per carry.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
49ers owned this one and still lost it — 61% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Lions at 57% of snaps stayed on schedule.
49ersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 13.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about 49ers.
MarketModelmodel higher on 49ershigher on Lions166 of 173 plays carry both curves
(:22) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −18.0 for 49ersExpected points −4.10 for 49ersThe model had 49ers 9 points higher than the market did.play 120
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 0:22SF +18% win prob(:22) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 4:11DET +18% win prob(4:11) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep middle intended for 14-R.Pearsall INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Joseph at DET 31. 31-K.Joseph to SF 43 for 26 yards (75-C.Heck).
4th · 7:41DET +17% win prob(7:41) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle intended for 14-R.Pearsall INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Joseph at DET 25. 31-K.Joseph to DET 38 for 13 yards (1-D.Samuel).
2nd · 10:17SF +16% win prob(10:17) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to SF 41 for 1 yard. Lateral to 9-Ja.Williams for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: SF-53-D.Winters has returned to the game.
2nd · 7:46SF +14% win prob(7:46) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep right to 14-R.Pearsall to DET 9 for 40 yards (0-T.Arnold).
3rd · 5:12DET +11% win prob(5:12) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at SF 39 for -13 yards (97-N.Bosa).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Amon-Ra St. Brown's 4-yard touchdown catch with 0:22 left in the 3rd put Detroit Lions ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
3rd4:31Jake Bates·57-yd field goal57-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap H.Hatten+324–28
3rd0:22Amon-Ra St. Brown·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared GoffLead never changed again+731–28
4th10:34Jake Bates·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap H.Hatten+334–28
4th3:06Jahmyr Gibbs·30-yd TD run30-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide left+640–28
4th0:50Joshua Dobbs·7-yd TD run7-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide right+640–34
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Lionscategory by category49ers
Lions3–549ers
444Total yards475
6.6Yards per play8.1
57%Success rate61%
64%Third-down rate63%
3Red-zone touchdowns5
7Explosive plays6
24First downs26
2Sacks taken2
0Turnovers2
The read
49ers ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Lions, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.59 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.39Lions: +0.39 expected points added per play
+0.3449ers: +0.34 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.59Lions: +0.59 expected points added per play
+0.4849ers: +0.48 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.13Lions: +0.13 expected points added per play
−0.0149ers: −0.01 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 67 snaps at a 55% dropback rate against 49ers’s 59 at 73%. Red-zone trips: Lions 6, 49ers 5.
Note49ers outgained Lions 475-444 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
SF's play-action rate turned over: 34.1% in week 16 against 14.0% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
43 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 16 pts
right on their number · −1.6 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.24× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
49ers10.8%
right on their number · −3.0 vs their 13.8%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.39× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
NoteSF's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 9.1 pts, 11.3 points above their season mean of -2.3 pts and 1.6 times their own 7.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
7 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Lions←49ers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Purdy pass−19% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(7:41) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle intended for 14-R.Pearsall INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Joseph at DET 25. 31-K.Joseph to DET 38 for 13 yards (1-D.Samuel).
Q4 7:41 · 49ers · 1st & 10 at DET 36 · gained nothing · -5.43 EP · −18.6% win probability
164 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 164 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 168. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 84 yards from the SF 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
+0.26
Success rate
57%
Yards
916
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31+0.4087%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31+0.6071%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20+0.3850%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR17+0.0853%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.4038%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6-0.0417%
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.0540%
Lions1 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR2——
49ers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Lions0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
49ers0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Lions049ers6
Lions049ers7
Touchdown13 plays, from the 49ers 39 to the Lions 3
Lions649ers7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Lions 35 to the 49ers 1
The period ended9 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the Lions 14
2nd quarter48 plays
Lions649ers13
Lions649ers14
Touchdown2 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a trick play, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Lions1249ers14
Lions1349ers14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Lions 25 to the 49ers 40
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Lions1349ers20
Lions1349ers21
Touchdown9 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the Lions 9
The period ended15 plays, from the Lions 30 to the 49ers 8
No good9 plays, from the 49ers 8 to the Lions 30
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter42 plays
Lions1949ers21
Lions2149ers21
Touchdown12 plays, from the Lions 34 to the 49ers 6
Lions2149ers27
Lions2149ers28
Touchdown8 plays, from the 49ers 16 to the Lions 5
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Lions2449ers28
Field goal7 plays, from the Lions 30 to the 49ers 26
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the 49ers 33 to midfield
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Lions3049ers28
Lions3149ers28
Touchdown9 plays, from the 49ers 43 to the 49ers 4
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter49 plays
No good6 plays, from the 49ers 39 to the Lions 40
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Lions3449ers28
Field goal8 plays, from the Lions 48 to the 49ers 24
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Intercepted8 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the Lions 36
Lions4049ers28
Touchdown8 plays, from the Lions 38 to the 49ers 30
Lions4049ers34
Touchdown15 plays, from the 49ers 28 to the Lions 7
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
