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2024 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 29, 2024 · U.S. Bank Stadium
25
27
Minnesota Vikings 27–25 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 11:58, MIN +13% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(11:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 83-J.Nailor for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
How the points landed
(1:50) 17-B.McManus 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
Score after this play: GB 3 — MIN 0(11:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 83-J.Nailor for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: GB 3 — MIN 7(2:19) 16-W.Reichard 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
Score after this play: GB 3 — MIN 10(:00) 16-W.Reichard 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
Score after this play: GB 3 — MIN 13(9:50) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 3-J.Addison for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: GB 3 — MIN 20(5:11) (No Huddle) 8-J.Jacobs left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: GB 10 — MIN 20(:57) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 27-C.Akers for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: GB 10 — MIN 27(6:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 31-Em.Wilson left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: GB 18 — MIN 27(2:20) (No Huddle) 10-J.Love pass short left to 18-M.Heath for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIN, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, declined. (kick good)
Score after this play: GB 25 — MIN 27Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Packers | Vikings |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 58 | 67 |
| Total yards | 273 | 444 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 4.7 | 6.6 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | -0.03 | 0.09 (edge) |
| Success rate | 48% | 52% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 60% | 66% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.03 | 0.28 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.12 (edge) | -0.26 |
| Third downs | 8/14 (edge) | 6/11 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 3 | 7 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 17 | 24 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 3 | 1 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 1 (edge) | 2 |
Vikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.03.
Who moved the needle
Passing · MIN
33/43, 377 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
12.2 expected points added · +8.5% completion over expected
Passing · GB
19/30, 185 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
0.8 expected points added · +1.8% completion over expected
Receiving · MIN
8/11 for 92 yds, 0 TD
27% of team targets · 2.8 expected points added
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GB | GB 30 | 6 | 29 | 2:50 | Fumble | |
| 2 | MIN | MIN 38 | 6 | 17 | 2:47 | Punt | |
| 3 | GB | GB 15 | 4 | 0 | 0:23 | Punt | |
| 4 | MIN | MIN 35 | 7 | 26 | 2:58 | Missed field goal | |
| 5 | GB | GB 47 | 8 | 39 | 4:15 | Field goal +3 | |
| 6 | MIN | MIN 23 | 11 | 82 | 4:55 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 7 | GB | GB 30 | 9 | 35 | 4:23 | Turnover on downs | |
| 8 | MIN | MIN 24 | 10 | 52 | 5:13 | Field goal +3 | |
| 9 | GB | GB 30 | 5 | 9 | 1:00 | Punt | |
| 10 | MIN | MIN 16 | 6 | 47 | 1:16 | Field goal +3 | |
| 11 | MIN | MIN 30 | 11 | 75 | 5:16 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 12 | GB | GB 40 | 5 | 6 | 1:49 | Punt | |
| 13 | MIN | MIN 30 | 2 | -1 | 0:52 | Interception | |
| 14 | GB | MIN 16 | 5 | 16 | 1:56 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 15 | MIN | MIN 30 | 10 | 70 | 4:16 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 16 | GB | GB 30 | 8 | 3 | 2:29 | Punt | |
| 17 | MIN | MIN 31 | 8 | 44 | 4:04 | Missed field goal | |
| 18 | GB | GB 33 | 10 | 79 | 3:06 | Touchdown +8 | |
| 19 | MIN | MIN 21 | 5 | 5 | 1:35 | Fumble | |
| 20 | GB | GB 38 | 10 | 57 | 2:19 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 21 | MIN | MIN 30 | 8 | 27 | 2:18 | End of game |
9 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Vikings gained 82 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 19/30 | 185 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 17 | 69 | 4.1 | 1 | -4.7 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 6 | 29 | 4.8 | 1 | 1.9 |
| Jordan Love | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 0.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romeo Doubs | 7 | 11 | 58 | 0 | 38% | 4.1 |
| Tucker Kraft | 2 | 3 | 53 | 0 | 10% | 3.2 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 4 | 5 | 43 | 0 | 17% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin Cooper | 8 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Javon Bullard | 9 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Wilson | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keisean Nixon |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 33/43 | 377 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 12 | 47 | 3.9 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Packers closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 49; the game landed 52 — over by 3.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 3.2 |
| Bo Melton | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 14% | 0.7 |
| Jayden Reed | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 14% | -6.3 |
| Luke Musgrave | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | -1.2 |
| Malik Heath | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3% | 1.3 |
| 8 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Xavier McKinney | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah McDuffie | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Karl Brooks | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kingsley Enagbare | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carrington Valentine | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Rashan Gary | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| -1.6 |
| Cam Akers | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 | -2.6 |
| Ty Chandler | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 | -1.7 |
| Sam Darnold | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 | -1.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 8 | 11 | 92 | 0 | 27% | 2.8 |
| Jalen Nailor | 5 | 5 | 81 | 1 | 12% | 8.2 |
| Jordan Addison | 6 | 8 | 69 | 1 | 20% | 3.6 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 5 | 6 | 68 | 0 | 15% | -1.7 |
| Aaron Jones | 4 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 12% | 2.5 |
| Cam Akers | 2 | 3 | 15 | 1 | 7% | 1.5 |
| C.J. Ham | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 5% | -1.0 |
| Johnny Mundt | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 2% | 0.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Cashman | 6 | 5 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Harrison Phillips | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Stephon Gilmore | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaquill Griffin | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Camryn Bynum | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Metellus | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Byron Murphy | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Andrew Van Ginkel | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Bullard | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Nailor | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
