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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:24 AM ET · 16 to play
2024 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 29, 2024 · U.S. Bank Stadium
Final
PackersGreen Bay25
BY 2final margin
VikingsMinnesota27
Green Bay Packers 25 at Minnesota Vikings 27. Final.
Packers -1 upset
The verdict · 2024 Week 17
Minnesota Vikings 27, Packers 25 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q2 11:58, 2nd and 8, on Jalen Nailor — 13.3 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 11:58 · 2nd and 8
Jalen Nailor
Vikings
(11:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 83-J.Nailor for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
O 49 ✓
Dome
Packers closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Minnesota Vikings 27–25 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 11:58, Vikings +13.3% win probability on one snap.
13.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Josh JacobsVikingsQ1 12:16(12:16) 8-J.Jacobs right guard to MIN 41 for 7 yards (99-J.Tillery). FUMBLES (99-J.Tillery), RECOVERED by MIN-24-C.Bynum at MIN 38.
11.8pts
Jordan LoveVikingsQ2 7:33(7:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short middle to 11-J.Reed.
11.0pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Vikings won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Packers at 3 chunk plays.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Packers owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Vikings at 2 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Packersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Packers owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Vikings at 2 giveaways.
Packersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Vikings won this one — +0.28 expected points per dropback, against Packers at +0.03 expected points per dropback.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Vikings.
MarketModelmodel higher on Vikingshigher on Packers168 of 180 plays carry both curves
(11:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 83-J.Nailor for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +13.3 for VikingsExpected points +3.46 for VikingsThe model had Vikings 16 points higher than the market did.play 44
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 11:58MIN +13% win prob(11:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 83-J.Nailor for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 12:16GB +12% win prob(12:16) 8-J.Jacobs right guard to MIN 41 for 7 yards (99-J.Tillery). FUMBLES (99-J.Tillery), RECOVERED by MIN-24-C.Bynum at MIN 38.
2nd · 7:33GB +11% win prob(7:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short middle to 11-J.Reed.
4th · 3:04MIN +11% win prob(3:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 13-D.Wicks to MIN 1 for 18 yards (1-S.Griffin).
1st · 6:07GB +10% win prob(6:07) 16-W.Reichard 57 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Crossbar, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
2nd · 4:38MIN +8% win prob(4:38) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 83-J.Nailor to GB 26 for 16 yards (25-K.Nixon).
4th · 1:49
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jalen Nailor's 31-yard touchdown catch with 11:58 left in the 2nd put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st1:50Brandon McManus·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder D.Whelan · snap M.Orzech+33–0
2nd11:58Jalen Nailor·31-yd TD catch31-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam Darnoldfrom Sam DarnoldLead never changed again+73–7
2nd2:19Will Reichard·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder R.Wright · snap A.DePaola+33–10
2nd0:00Will Reichard·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder R.Wright · snap A.DePaola+33–13
3rd9:50Jordan Addison·18-yd TD catch18-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam Darnoldfrom Sam Darnold+73–20
4th2:20Malik Heath·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Jordan Lovefrom Jordan Love+725–27
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Packerscategory by categoryVikings
Packers3–6Vikings
273Total yards444
4.7Yards per play6.6
48%Success rate52%
57%Third-down rate55%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
3Explosive plays7
17First downs24
3Sacks taken1
1Turnovers2
The read
Vikings ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.03Packers: −0.03 expected points added per play
+0.09Vikings: +0.09 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.03Packers: +0.03 expected points added per play
+0.28Vikings: +0.28 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.12Packers: −0.12 expected points added per play
−0.26Vikings: −0.26 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 58 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Vikings’s 67 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Packers 4, Vikings 5.
NoteVikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.03.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
MIN's blitz rate sent, 68.6%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 17 — 14.4 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 58.8% in week 3.
A 3.3-swing turn from week 16.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 17 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.4 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−0.64× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Vikings20.0%
inside their normal wobble · +3.7 vs their 16.3%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+0.61× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
NoteMIN's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 68.6%, 23.7 points above their season mean of 44.8% and 1.9 times their own 12.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Packers←Vikings→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Love pass−13% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(7:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short middle to 11-J.Reed.
Q2 7:33 · Packers · 4th & 2 at MIN 23 · gained nothing · -3.83 EP · −12.6% win probability
166 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 180 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 175. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 77 yards from the MIN 23 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
180 of 180 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
180
EPA per play
-0.03
Success rate
48%
Yards
714
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46+0.0765%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38+0.0179%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR22+0.3255%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.5050%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.1033%
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Vikings1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
180 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
180 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Packers 30 to the Vikings 48
Punt6 plays, from the Vikings 38 to the Packers 45
Punt4 plays
No good7 plays, from the Vikings 35 to the Packers 39
Packers3Vikings0
Field goal8 plays, from the Packers 47 to the Vikings 4
The period ended5 plays, from the Vikings 23 to the Vikings 37
2nd quarter48 plays
Packers3Vikings6
Packers3Vikings7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Vikings 38 to the Packers 31
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Packers 30 to the Vikings 23
Packers3Vikings10
Field goal11 plays, from the Vikings 24 to the Packers 7
Punt6 plays, from the Packers 30 to the Packers 39
Packers3Vikings13
Field goal12 plays, from the Vikings 16 to the Packers 32
3rd quarter40 plays
Packers3Vikings19
Packers3Vikings20
Touchdown12 plays, from the Vikings 30 to the Packers 18
Punt6 plays, from the Packers 40 to the Packers 45
Intercepted2 plays
Packers9Vikings20
Packers10Vikings20
Touchdown5 plays, from the Vikings 16 to the Vikings 2
Packers10Vikings26
Packers10Vikings27
Touchdown10 plays, from the Vikings 30 to the Packers 7
The period ended5 plays, from the Packers 30 to the Packers 36
4th quarter55 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 41 to the Packers 43
No good9 plays, from the Vikings 31 to the Packers 19
Packers16Vikings27
Packers18Vikings27
Touchdown11 plays, from the Packers 33 to the Vikings 5
Punt7 plays, from the Vikings 21 to the Vikings 26
Packers24Vikings27
Packers25Vikings27
Touchdown11 plays, from the Packers 38 to the Vikings 1
The period ended12 plays, from the Vikings 30 to the Packers 43
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
