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1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 19.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 35 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Giantshigher on Colts170 of 181 plays carry both curves
(8:50) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass short right to 1-M.Nabers for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +17.2 for GiantsExpected points +5.15 for GiantsThe model had Giants 12 points higher than the market did.play 144
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 8:50NYG +17% win prob(8:50) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass short right to 1-M.Nabers for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 1:13NYG +15% win prob(1:13) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass short right to 1-M.Nabers for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 11:41NYG +14% win prob(11:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass short middle to 86-D.Slayton for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 4:48NYG +14% win prob(4:48) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass short middle to 17-W.Robinson to IND 9 for 35 yards (44-Z.Franklin, 40-J.Jones).
4th · 10:57NYG +13% win prob(10:57) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short right to 14-A.Pierce for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 8:39NYG +11% win prob(8:39) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass deep middle to 14-A.Pierce to NYG 21 for 49 yards (21-A.Jackson; 3-D.Banks). NYG-27-J.Pinnock was injured during the play.
3rd · 15:00
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Malik Nabers's 31-yard touchdown catch with 1:13 left in the 1st put New York Giants ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 11 scores that followed.
Lead
1st3:48Matt Gay·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+33–0
4th2:24Graham Gano·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.Kreiter+333–45
13 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Coltscategory by categoryGiants
Colts4–5Giants
446Total yards394
6.0Yards per play8.0
47%Success rate41%
54%Third-down rate58%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
6Explosive plays7
24First downs13
2Sacks taken0
3Turnovers0
The read
Giants ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±1.27 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.04Colts: +0.04 expected points added per play
+0.38Giants: +0.38 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.18Colts: +0.18 expected points added per play
+1.27Giants: +1.27 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.12Colts: −0.12 expected points added per play
−0.48Giants: −0.48 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 74 snaps at a 55% dropback rate against Giants’s 49 at 49%. Red-zone trips: Colts 6, Giants 7.
NoteColts outgained Giants 446-394 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
NYG's play-action rate, 45.8%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 17 — 6.5 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 38.7% in week 9.
2.1 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 2.3-swing turn from week 16.
24 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.4 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
IND's sack or hit rate, 4.2%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 17 — 0.8 points clear of the next team along.
24 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.5 points.
NYG's pass rate over expected turned over: +12.2 pts in week 16 against −7.6 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
49 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.4 points.
IND's early-down pass rate turned over: 15.2% in week 16 against 55.2% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 3.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
58 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.0 points.
IND's pass rate over expected turned over: −25.5 pts in week 16 against −7.8 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
73 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 16 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.3 vs their 12.4%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−1.10× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
Giants9.8%
inside their normal wobble · −5.1 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.67× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
NoteNYG's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 45.8%, 21.9 points above their season mean of 24.0% and 2.1 times their own 10.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Colts←Giants→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Lock pass+14% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(8:50) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass short right to 1-M.Nabers for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 8:50 · Giants · 1st & 10 at NYG 41 · gained 59 · +5.15 EP · +14.2% win probability
168 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 181 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 168 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 176. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
13 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYG moving 70 yards from the NYG 30 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
181 of 181 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
181
EPA per play
+0.15
Success rate
49%
Yards
835
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50-0.0058%
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33+0.6461%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR22+0.2350%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.1330%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.760%
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.9 seconds
Intercepted8 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Giants 29
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 6 to the Giants 15
Colts3Giants0
Field goal10 plays, from the Colts 37 to the Giants 10
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
How the play was built
A screen, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.1 seconds
Colts3Giants6
Colts3Giants7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Giants 30 to the Colts 27
The period ended5 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Colts 31
2nd quarter53 plays
No good4 plays, from the Giants 42 to the Giants 35
Colts3Giants13
Colts3Giants14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Giants 44 to the Colts 32
Colts6Giants14
Field goal9 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Giants 11
Colts6Giants20
Colts6Giants21
Touchdown11 plays, from the Giants 30 to the Colts 1
Colts12Giants21
Colts13Giants21
Touchdown20 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Giants 2
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter34 plays
Colts13Giants27
Colts13Giants28
Touchdown2 plays
Colts19Giants28
Colts20Giants28
Touchdown9 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Giants 26
Punt5 plays
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Colts 26 to the Giants 23
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Giants 22 to the Giants 42
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter58 plays
Punt3 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 10 to the Giants 14
Colts26Giants28
Touchdown8 plays, from the Colts 39 to the Giants 13
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Colts26Giants34
Colts26Giants35
Touchdown6 plays, from the Giants 30 to the Giants 41
Colts32Giants35
Colts33Giants35
Touchdown7 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Giants 7
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Colts33Giants41
Colts33Giants42
Touchdown12 plays, from the Giants 30 to the Colts 5
Intercepted2 plays
Colts33Giants45
Field goal7 plays, from the Colts 17 to the Colts 12
Fumble lost4 plays
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Colts -7.5
Closing total
40.5
Colts moneyline
-410
Giants moneyline
+320
Colts closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 40.5; the game landed 78 — over by 37.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Cool, 57°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 6 mph out of the south; overcast.
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
Colts 7 days · Giants 7 days
Coaches
Shane Steichen vs Brian Daboll
NYG +11% win prob
7-M.Gay kicks 65 yards from IND 35 to NYG 0. 87-I.Smith-Marsette for 100 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:57IND +9% win prob(2:57) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short right intended for 83-K.Granson INTERCEPTED by 22-A.Phillips at IND 42. 22-A.Phillips to IND 17 for 25 yards (79-B.Raimann).
