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2024 Week 17 · Sun, Dec 29, 2024 · MetLife Stadium

Indianapolis Colts

33

New York GiantsWinner

45

IND -7.5 upsetO 40.5 ✓

New York Giants 45–33. Biggest swing: Q4 8:50, NYG +17% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3NYG ↑IND ↓
Q4 · 8:50IND 26 — NYG 34NYG ball · 1st & 10NYG 62%

(8:50) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass short right to 1-M.Nabers for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 8:50NYG +17% win prob(8:50) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass short right to 1-M.Nabers for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q1 · 1:13NYG +15% win prob(1:13) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass short right to 1-M.Nabers for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q2 · 11:41NYG +14% win prob(11:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass short middle to 86-D.Slayton for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q4 · 4:48NYG +14% win prob(4:48) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass short middle to 17-W.Robinson to IND 9 for 35 yards (44-Z.Franklin, 40-J.Jones).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 3:48IND Field goal

    (3:48) 7-M.Gay 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: IND 3 — NYG 0
  2. Q1 · 1:13NYG Touchdown

    (1:13) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass short right to 1-M.Nabers for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 3 — NYG 7
  3. Q2 · 11:41NYG Touchdown

    (11:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass short middle to 86-D.Slayton for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 3 — NYG 14
  4. Q2 · 9:29IND Field goal

    (9:29) 7-M.Gay 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: IND 6 — NYG 14
  5. Q2 · 6:02NYG Touchdown

    (6:02) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass short right to 17-W.Robinson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 6 — NYG 21
  6. Q2 · 0:23IND Touchdown

    (:23) 28-J.Taylor left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 13 — NYG 21
  7. Q3 · 15:00NYG Touchdown

    7-M.Gay kicks 65 yards from IND 35 to NYG 0. 87-I.Smith-Marsette for 100 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 13 — NYG 28
  8. Q3 · 11:10IND Touchdown

    (11:10) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right guard for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 20 — NYG 28
  9. Q4 · 10:57IND Touchdown

    (10:57) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short right to 14-A.Pierce for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: IND 26 — NYG 28
  10. Q4 · 8:50NYG Touchdown

    (8:50) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass short right to 1-M.Nabers for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 26 — NYG 35
  11. Q4 · 6:43IND Touchdown

    (6:43) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short right to 11-M.Pittman for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: NYG-27-J.Pinnock has returned to the game. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 33 — NYG 35
  12. Q4 · 3:05NYG Touchdown

    (3:05) 2-D.Lock scrambles left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 33 — NYG 42
  13. Q4 · 2:24NYG Field goal

    (2:24) 9-G.Gano 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

    Score after this play: IND 33 — NYG 45

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricColtsGiants
Offensive plays7449
Total yards446 (edge)394
Yards per play6.08.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.040.38 (edge)
Success rate47% (edge)41%
Dropback rate55%49%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.181.27 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.12 (edge)-0.48
Third downs7/137/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)67 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps24 (edge)13
Sacks taken20 (edge)
Turnovers30 (edge)

Colts outgained Giants 446–394 but lost the turnover battle 3–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · IND

Joe FlaccoQB

26/38, 330 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

7.2 expected points added · +7.7% completion over expected

Passing · NYG

Drew LockQB

17/23, 309 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

27.6 expected points added · +10.7% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

32 att, 125 yds, 2 TD

-3.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYG

Tyrone TracyRB

20 att, 59 yds, 0 TD

-11.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NYG

Malik NabersWR

7/8 for 171 yds, 2 TD

36% of team targets · 14.7 expected points added

Receiving · IND

Alec PierceWR

6/9 for 122 yds, 1 TD

24% of team targets · 9.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1INDIND 308413:24Interception
2NYGNYG 64112:08Punt
3INDIND 3710505:43Field goal +3
4NYGNYG 307702:40Touchdown +7
5INDIND 308352:26Missed field goal
6NYGNYG 446562:07Touchdown +7
7INDIND 308152:06Field goal +3
8NYGNYG 309843:31Touchdown +7
9INDIND 3016705:35Touchdown +7
10NYGNYG 30200:20End of half
11NYG—200:12Defensive touchdown +7
12INDIND 309703:45Touchdown +7
13NYGNYG 30502:15Punt
14INDIND 267514:16Turnover on downs
15NYGNYG 227304:18Turnover on downs
16INDNYG 414-10:37Punt
17NYGNYG 10440:52Punt
18INDIND 397422:52Touchdown +6
19NYGNYG 306702:14Touchdown +7
20INDIND 307702:01Touchdown +7
21NYGNYG 3011643:41Touchdown +7
22INDIND 30200:11Interception
23NYGIND 17450:26Field goal +3
24INDIND 30330:27Fumble
25NYGIND 22301:53End of game

13 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Giants gained 84 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Joe Flacco26/383302227.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jonathan Taylor321253.92-3.6
Joe Flacco111.00-0.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Alec Pierce69122124%9.0
Michael Pittman910109127%8.8
Kylen Granson3434011%-0.7
Adonai Mitchell2422011%1.6
Josh Downs3422011%-0.4
Jonathan Taylor2411011%-1.4
Trey Sermon111003%0.1
Mo Alie-Cox01003%-3.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Zaire Franklin470.000
Nick Cross260.000
Jaylon Jones240.000
Grover Stewart140.000
Julian Blackmon130.000
Kenny Moore210.000
Kwity Paye110.000
Bernhard Raimann100.000
Samuel Womack100.000
Mo Alie-Cox100.000

New York Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Drew Lock17/2330940027.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Tyrone Tracy20593.00-11.0
Devin Singletary5214.20-1.0
Drew Lock500.01-0.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Malik Nabers78171236%14.7
Wan'Dale Robinson5671127%10.6
Darius Slayton1332114%2.5
Tyrone Tracy2314014%-1.3
Chris Manhertz111205%1.0
Devin Singletary11905%0.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Ty Summers180.000
Jason Pinnock630.000
Dane Belton710.012
Darius Muasau250.000
Deonte Banks510.001
Andru Phillips420.011
Brian Burns220.000
Elijah Chatman130.000
Isaiah Simmons030.001
Cordale Flott210.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
IND -7.5
Closing total
40.5
IND moneyline
-410
NYG moneyline
+320

Colts closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 40.5; the game landed 78 — over by 37.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
54°F, wind 0 mph
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
IND 7 days · NYG 7 days
Coaches
Shane Steichen vs Brian Daboll