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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:23 AM ET · 16 to play
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Steelershigher on Chiefs168 of 175 plays carry both curves
(14:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at PIT 27 for -11 yards (51-M.Danna). FUMBLES (51-M.Danna) [51-M.Danna], and recovers at PIT 27.
Swing −10.4 for SteelersExpected points −2.91 for SteelersThe model had Steelers 14 points higher than the market did.play 5
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 14:03KC +10% win prob(14:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at PIT 27 for -11 yards (51-M.Danna). FUMBLES (51-M.Danna) [51-M.Danna], and recovers at PIT 27.
1st · 12:06KC +8% win prob(12:06) (Shotgun) 29-K.Hunt right tackle to PIT 33 for no gain (97-Ca.Heyward; 6-P.Queen).
2nd · 0:38PIT +6% win prob(:38) 14-M.Araiza punts 72 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.
2nd · 10:35PIT +6% win prob(10:35) 74-S.Anderson reported in as eligible. 3-R.Wilson scrambles left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 11:25PIT +5% win prob(11:25) (Shotgun) 29-K.Hunt up the middle to PIT 29 for 4 yards (6-P.Queen).
1st · 9:23PIT +5% win prob(9:23) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 1-X.Worthy for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on KC-1-X.Worthy, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Xavier Worthy's 7-yard touchdown catch with 9:23 left in the 1st put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:23Xavier Worthy·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes · kick no good, wide rightLead never changed again+66–0
1st4:05Justin Watson·11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+713–0
3rd12:24Harrison Butker·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder M.Araiza · snap J.Winchester+316–7
3rd5:49Chris Boswell·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder C.Waitman · snap C.Kuntz+316–10
4th15:00Kareem Hunt·2-yd TD run2-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+622–10
4th12:44Travis Kelce·12-yd TD catch12-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+729–10
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chiefscategory by categorySteelers
Chiefs6–3Steelers
389Total yards364
6.6Yards per play5.0
51%Success rate44%
30%Third-down rate50%
4Red-zone touchdowns1
4Explosive plays11
21First downs22
0Sacks taken5
0Turnovers2
The read
Chiefs ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.51 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.32Chiefs: +0.32 expected points added per play
−0.11Steelers: −0.11 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.51Chiefs: +0.51 expected points added per play
−0.21Steelers: −0.21 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.09Chiefs: −0.09 expected points added per play
+0.09Steelers: +0.09 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 59 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Steelers’s 73 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 5, Steelers 4.
NoteChiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.32 expected points added per play vs -0.11.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 17Against their seasonTendencies
KC's play-action rate, 30.0%, is past their previous high of 28.6% in week 11 — the highest of their 16 charted games through week 17.
A 2.2-swing turn from week 16.
40 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.5 points.
PIT's play-action rate turned over: 37.8% in week 16 against 10.4% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
48 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 23 pts
right on their number · +1.0 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (+0.10× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Steelers5.0%
leaned — stayed blocked · −11.6 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−1.52× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
NoteKC's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 30.0%, 8.7 points above their season mean of 21.3% and 1.6 times their own 5.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
52Creed HumphreyC · Every snap100%62 snaps
74Jawaan TaylorT · Every snap100%62 snaps
65Trey SmithG · Every snap100%62 snaps
66Mike CaliendoG · Every snap100%62 snaps
15Patrick MahomesQB · Every snap100%62 snaps
62Joe ThuneyG · Every snap100%62 snaps
87Travis KelceTE · Full-time89%55 snaps
1Xavier WorthyWR · Full-time85%53 snaps
9JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Heavy rotation50%31 snaps
29Kareem HuntRB · Rotational48%30 snaps
8DeAndre HopkinsWR · Rotational47%29 snaps
83Noah GrayTE · Rotational45%28 snaps
5Marquise BrownWR · Rotational40%25 snaps
84Justin WatsonWR · Rotational34%21 snaps
10Isiah PachecoRB · Rotational32%20 snaps
34Samaje PerineRB · Situational19%12 snaps
88Peyton HendershotTE · Situational6%4 snaps
81Nikko RemigioWR · Situational2%1 snap
64Wanya MorrisT · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Malik HerringDEChris JonesDTChamarri ConnerFSC.J. HansonGJoshua UcheOLBD.J. HumphriesTEthan DriskellT
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chiefs←Steelers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Wilson sacked−10% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(14:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at PIT 27 for -11 yards (51-M.Danna). FUMBLES (51-M.Danna) [51-M.Danna], and recovers at PIT 27.
Q1 14:03 · Steelers · 3rd & 2 at PIT 38 · lost 11 · -2.91 EP · −10.0% win probability
166 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 175 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 170. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 85 yards from the PIT 7 for a end of half. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
175 of 175 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
175
EPA per play
+0.02
Success rate
46%
Yards
753
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR53+0.0660%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38+0.2368%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19+0.5568%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.6857%
Steelers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.4840%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Steelers1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 30 to the Steelers 38
Chiefs6Steelers0
Touchdown11 plays, from the Steelers 42 to the Steelers 7
Punt7 plays, from the Steelers 23 to the Steelers 37
Chiefs12Steelers0
Chiefs13Steelers0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Chiefs 21 to the Steelers 11
Intercepted6 plays, from the Steelers 23 to the Chiefs 8
Punt4 plays, from the Chiefs 20 to the Chiefs 28
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter42 plays
Chiefs13Steelers6
Chiefs13Steelers7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Steelers 32 to the Chiefs 1
The period ended11 plays, from the Chiefs 31 to the Steelers 30
Punt11 plays, from the Steelers 20 to midfield
The period ended5 plays, from the Chiefs 21 to the Chiefs 28
The period ended4 plays, from the Steelers 20 to the Steelers 22
3rd quarter37 plays
Chiefs16Steelers7
Field goal10 plays, from the Chiefs 33 to the Steelers 13
Chiefs16Steelers10
Field goal14 plays, from the Steelers 30 to the Chiefs 12
The period ended13 plays, from the Chiefs 23 to the Steelers 6
4th quarter52 plays
Chiefs22Steelers10
Touchdown2 plays
Fumble lost4 plays
Chiefs28Steelers10
Chiefs29Steelers10
Touchdown5 plays, from the Steelers 34 to the Steelers 12
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Steelers 30 to the Chiefs 32
Punt7 plays, from the Chiefs 27 to the Chiefs 47
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 14 to the Steelers 22
Punt4 plays, from the Chiefs 29 to the Chiefs 38
The period ended14 plays, from the Steelers 7 to the Chiefs 8
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chiefs -3
Closing total
43.5
Chiefs moneyline
-162
Steelers moneyline
+136
Chiefs closed -3 and covered, winning by 19.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 39 — under by 4.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Acrisure Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cold, 37°F at kickoff; still at 3 mph out of the east; overcast.
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
Chiefs 4 days · Steelers 4 days
Coaches
Andy Reid vs Mike Tomlin
2nd · 2:17
PIT +5% win prob
(2:17) 8-C.Waitman punts 32 yards to KC 24, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-46-C.Kuntz. PENALTY on KC, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, 5 yards, enforced at PIT 44 - No Play.
2nd · 0:08PIT +5% win prob(:08) (Shotgun) 30-J.Warren right guard to PIT 34 for 12 yards (32-N.Bolton).
