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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2024 Week 17 · Sat, Dec 28, 2024 · Gillette Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2024 Week 17
It turned at Q1 4:11, 4th and 3, on Quentin Johnston — 9.5 win-probability points to the Chargers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Los Angeles Chargers 40–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 4:11, Chargers +9.5% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 4:11 · 4th and 3
Quentin Johnston
Chargers
(4:11) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 1-Q.Johnston to NE 23 for 19 yards (15-M.Mapu).
9.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Every snap
Chargers won this one — +0.29 expected points per snap, against Patriots at -0.55 expected points per snap.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Chargers won this one — +0.06 expected points per carry, against Patriots at -0.75 expected points per carry.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Chargers won this one — +0.47 expected points per dropback, against Patriots at -0.46 expected points per dropback.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Chargers won this one — 10 of 17 on third down, against Patriots at 2 of 10 on third down.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 9.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 31 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
(4:11) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 1-Q.Johnston to NE 23 for 19 yards (15-M.Mapu).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Derius Davis's 23-yard touchdown catch with 3:27 left in the 1st put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Derius Davis23-yd TD catch23-yard touchdown catchfrom Justin HerbertLead never changed again+77–09 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Chargerscategory by categoryPatriots
Chargers ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.75 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 77 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Patriots’s 48 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 7, Patriots 1.
Chargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.29 expected points added per play vs -0.55.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LAC's fourth-and-short go rate, 40.0%, is past their previous high of 33.3% in week 11 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 17.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 8 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 16.0 points. · +1.4σ from their own normal
LAC's play-action rate turned over: 50.0% in week 16 against 18.6% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
43 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.3 points. · −1.0σ from their own normal
NE's play-action rate turned over: 25.0% in week 16 against 12.1% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.1 points. · −1.0σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Chargers-0.6 ptsright on their number · +1.0 vs their -1.6 pts, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.15× that swing) · 77 snaps
Patriots-5.7 ptsright on their number · −2.6 vs their -3.1 pts, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−0.49× that swing) · 48 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 26% to 85%
Tendencies room →Chargers51.7%right on their number · −3.5 vs their 55.2%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (−0.30× that swing) · 58 early downs
Patriots62.9%inside their normal wobble · +6.5 vs their 56.3%, and they swing ±11.2 week to week (+0.58× that swing) · 35 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 62%
Tendencies room →Chargers18.6%inside their normal wobble · −12.1 vs their 30.7%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (−0.98× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Patriots12.1%inside their normal wobble · −4.9 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−0.95× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -54% to 118%
Fourth Down room →Chargers40.0%leaned — went for it · +22.1 vs their 17.9%, and they swing ±16.0 week to week (+1.38× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
Patriots—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 32.2%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 69%
Tendencies room →Chargers33.3%inside their normal wobble · +8.5 vs their 24.8%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (+0.83× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Patriots18.6%leaned — sat back · −16.5 vs their 35.2%, and they swing ±13.1 week to week (−1.27× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 32%
Tendencies room →Chargers18.2%inside their normal wobble · +4.1 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+0.58× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Patriots9.3%right on their number · −0.9 vs their 10.2%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−0.12× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
LAC's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 40.0%, 22.1 points above their season mean of 17.9% and 1.4 times their own 16.0-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Chargers
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 6 inactive
Inactive · 6
Who moved the needle
Passing · LAC
26/38, 281 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
19.6 expected points added · +7.6% completion over expected
Passing · NE
12/22, 117 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-15.0 expected points added · -6.5% completion over expected
Receiving · LAC
5/8 for 48 yds, 0 TD
20% of team targets · 6.9 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Ladd McConkey banked 8.7 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladd McConkeyWR · Alpha Receiver | 29.4 | +8.7 | 77% | 81% | 25% | 30% | 8/10, 94 yd, 2 TD |
| Justin HerbertQB · Starter QB | 24.4 | −0.5 | 87% | — | 0% | — | 26/38, 281 yd, 3 TD · 3 car, 12 yd |
| J.K. DobbinsRB · Committee Back | 15.3 | 0.0 | 53% | 47% | 3% | 0% | 19 car, 76 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 7 yd |
| Demario DouglasWR · Featured Receiver | 14.6 | +7.1 | 92% | 94% | 22% | 20% | 4/5, 46 yd, 1 TD |
| Derius DavisWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.6 | +6.4 | 18% | 14% | 5% | 4% | 1 car, -3 yd · 2/2, 29 yd, 1 TD |
| Drake MayeQB · Starter QB | 9.9 | +0.2 | 81% | — | 0% | — | 12/22, 117 yd, 1 TD · 6 car, 32 yd |
| Quentin JohnstonWR · Featured Receiver | 9.8 | −4.0 | 68% | 84% | 20% | 19% | 5/8, 48 yd |
| Josh PalmerWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.1 | −2.5 | 38% | 49% | 15% | 22% | 4/6, 41 yd |
| Kayshon BoutteWR · Featured Receiver | 6.8 | −1.2 | 77% | 85% | 22% | 29% | 4/5, 28 yd |
| Antonio GibsonRB · Bell Cow Back | 6.3 | −1.5 | 55% | 48% | 4% | 0% | 12 car, 63 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Hassan HaskinsRB | 5.0 | −0.7 | 35% | 44% | 3% | 1% | 8 car, 30 yd · 1/1, 10 yd |
| Austin HooperTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.9 | +0.9 | 45% | 48% | 13% | 7% | 3/3, 19 yd |
| Stone SmarttTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.3 | +0.7 | 33% | 42% | 5% | 6% | 2/2, 23 yd |
| Kendrick BourneWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.2 | −1.3 | 72% | 82% | 17% | 19% | 2/4, 22 yd |
| Will DisslyTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.1 | +0.1 | 44% | 47% | 8% | 0% | 2/3, 21 yd |
| Kimani VidalRB | 2.4 | −3.3 | 11% | 9% | 5% | 4% | 5 car, 24 yd · 0/2, 0 yd |
| Tucker FiskTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.1 | 41% | 30% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| Taylor HeinickeQB | 0.8 | −0.7 | 13% | — | 0% | — | 0/2, 0 yd · 1 car, 8 yd |
| Rhamondre StevensonRB | 0.1 | −1.8 | 45% | 52% | 4% | 0% | 2 car, 1 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Scott MatlockRB | 0.0 | — | 44% | 30% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| D.J. CharkWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −6.8 | 37% | 23% | 10% | 13% | 0/4, 0 yd |
| Ja'Lynn PolkWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.2 | 23% | 15% | 4% | 11% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Alex EricksonWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Jamycal HastyRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Hunter HenryTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.0 | 57% | 61% | 9% | 11% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Javon BakerWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.4 | 21% | 12% | 4% | 3% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Jacoby BrissettQB | -0.1 | −0.4 | 19% | — | 0% | — | 1/2, -2 yd |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(4:11) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 1-Q.Johnston to NE 23 for 19 yards (15-M.Mapu).
Q1 4:11 · Chargers · 4th & 3 at NE 42 · gained 19 · +4.45 EP · +15.8% win probability
159 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 168 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 159 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 163. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 94 yards from the LAC 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
Chargers6
Patriots0Chargers7Patriots0Chargers10Patriots0How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Chargers16Patriots0Chargers17Patriots0Chargers17Patriots6Chargers17Patriots7Chargers20Patriots7Chargers26Patriots7Chargers27Patriots7Chargers30Patriots7Chargers36Patriots7Chargers37Patriots7Chargers40Patriots7Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Chargers at Patriots, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 26/38 | 281 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +19.6 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −2.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 19 | 76 | 4.0 | 1 | +1.7 |
| Hassan Haskins | 8 | 30 | 3.8 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladd McConkey | 8 | 10 | 94 | 2 | 25% | +5.9 |
| Quentin Johnston | 5 | 8 | 48 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Dye | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kristian Fulton | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elijah Molden |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 12/22 | 117 | 1 | 0 | 4 | −15.0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 1/2 | -2 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2024_17_LAC_NE
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Chargers closed -6 and covered, winning by 33.
Total closed 42; the game landed 47 — over by 5.0.
Conditions and crew
| Kimani Vidal | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Justin Herbert | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 | +2.6 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Derius Davis | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 | −1.0 |
| 20% |
| +6.9 |
| Josh Palmer | 4 | 6 | 41 | 0 | 15% | +0.4 |
| Derius Davis | 2 | 2 | 29 | 1 | 5% | +3.2 |
| Stone Smartt | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 | 5% | +2.3 |
| Will Dissly | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 8% | +1.6 |
| Hassan Haskins | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 3% | +0.8 |
| Tucker Fisk | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | +0.6 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3% | +0.4 |
| Kimani Vidal | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.8 |
| D.J. Chark | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10% | −3.8 |
| 2 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Junior Colson | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tarheeb Still | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tony Jefferson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tuli Tuipulotu | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Hassan Haskins | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kendall Williamson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bud Dupree | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| −2.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Gibson | 12 | 63 | 5.3 | 0 | −4.6 |
| Drake Maye | 6 | 32 | 5.3 | 0 | −3.6 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demario Douglas | 4 | 5 | 46 | 1 | 22% | +3.2 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 4 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 22% | +0.4 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 17% | −1.7 |
| Austin Hooper | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 13% | −1.9 |
| Antonio Gibson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.7 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.7 |
| Javon Baker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| Ja'Lynn Polk | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.1 |
| Hunter Henry | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9% | −2.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahlani Tavai | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sione Takitaki | 2 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Dugger | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Davon Godchaux | 2 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marte Mapu | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremiah Pharms | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Jones | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daniel Ekuale | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Elliss | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Bolden | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
