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2024 Week 17 · Sat, Dec 28, 2024 · Gillette Stadium

Los Angeles ChargersWinner

40

New England Patriots

7

LAC -6 ✓O 42 ✓

Los Angeles Chargers 40–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 4:11, NE +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3NE ↑LAC ↓
Q1 · 4:11LAC 0 — NE 0LAC ball · 4th & 3LAC 69%

(4:11) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 1-Q.Johnston to NE 23 for 19 yards (15-M.Mapu).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 4:11NE +9% win prob(4:11) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 1-Q.Johnston to NE 23 for 19 yards (15-M.Mapu).
  2. Q2 · 8:39LAC +7% win prob(8:39) (No Huddle) 10-D.Maye FUMBLES (Aborted) at NE 49, RECOVERED by LAC-3-D.James at NE 44.
  3. Q1 · 3:27NE +4% win prob(3:27) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 12-D.Davis for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-Y.Ngakoue].
  4. Q1 · 11:54LAC +3% win prob(11:54) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep right to 15-L.McConkey.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 3:27LAC Touchdown

    (3:27) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 12-D.Davis for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-Y.Ngakoue]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 7 — NE 0
  2. Q2 · 10:18LAC Field goal

    (10:18) 11-C.Dicker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: LAC 10 — NE 0
  3. Q2 · 3:00LAC Touchdown

    (3:00) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 15-L.McConkey for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 17 — NE 0
  4. Q2 · 1:31NE Touchdown

    (1:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep middle to 3-D.Douglas for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LAC-48-B.Dupree, Defensive Offside, declined. NE 10-Maye 8th straight game with a TD pass, new franchise rookie record (Plunkett 7, 1971). (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 17 — NE 7
  5. Q2 · 0:06LAC Field goal

    (:06) 11-C.Dicker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: LAC 20 — NE 7
  6. Q3 · 7:43LAC Touchdown

    (7:43) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 15-L.McConkey for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 27 — NE 7
  7. Q3 · 5:47LAC Field goal

    (5:47) 11-C.Dicker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: LAC 30 — NE 7
  8. Q4 · 12:01LAC Touchdown

    (12:01) 27-J.Dobbins up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 37 — NE 7
  9. Q4 · 3:51LAC Field goal

    (3:51) 11-C.Dicker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: LAC 40 — NE 7

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricChargersPatriots
Offensive plays7748
Total yards428 (edge)181
Yards per play5.6 (edge)3.8
Expected points added / play0.29 (edge)-0.55
Success rate52% (edge)33%
Dropback rate56%69%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.47 (edge)-0.46
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.06 (edge)-0.75
Third downs10/17 (edge)2/10
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)34 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps26 (edge)8
Sacks taken0 (edge)4
Turnovers0 (edge)1

Chargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.29 expected points added per play vs -0.55.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

26/38, 281 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

19.6 expected points added · +7.6% completion over expected

Passing · NE

Drake MayeQB

12/22, 117 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-15.0 expected points added · -6.5% completion over expected

Rushing · LAC

J.K. DobbinsRB

19 att, 76 yds, 1 TD

1.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NE

Antonio GibsonRB

12 att, 63 yds, 0 TD

-4.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LAC

Ladd McConkeyWR

8/10 for 94 yds, 2 TD

25% of team targets · 5.9 expected points added

Receiving · LAC

Quentin JohnstonWR

5/8 for 48 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · 6.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1LACLAC 88173:23Punt
2NENE 37442:04Punt
3LACLAC 912866:12Touchdown +7
4NENE 30521:23Punt
5LACLAC 2412676:43Field goal +3
6NENE 305121:40Fumble
7LACNE 4410445:40Touchdown +7
8NENE 277731:31Touchdown +7
9LACLAC 309351:22Field goal +3
10NE—100:02End of half
11NENE 305112:03Defensive touchdown
12LACLAC 611945:20Touchdown +7
13NENE 305-71:35Turnover on downs
14LACNE 23400:19Field goal +3
15NENE 3013213:25Turnover on downs
16LACLAC 3711485:20Touchdown +7
17NENE 28551:04Punt
18LACLAC 218284:37Punt
19NENE 17490:52Turnover on downs
20LACNE 26491:38Field goal +3
21NENE 308513:47End of game

9 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chargers gained 94 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Justin Herbert26/3828130019.6
Taylor Heinicke0/20000-2.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
J.K. Dobbins19764.011.7
Hassan Haskins8303.800.8
Kimani Vidal5244.800.0
Justin Herbert3124.002.6
Taylor Heinicke188.000.6
Derius Davis1-3-3.00-1.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Ladd McConkey81094225%5.9
Quentin Johnston5848020%6.9
Josh Palmer4641015%0.4
Derius Davis222915%3.2
Stone Smartt222305%2.3
Will Dissly232108%1.6
Hassan Haskins111003%0.8
Tucker Fisk11803%0.6
J.K. Dobbins11703%0.4
Kimani Vidal02005%-0.8
D.J. Chark040010%-3.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Troy Dye400.000
Kristian Fulton400.000
Elijah Molden220.000
Junior Colson220.000
Tarheeb Still400.000
Tony Jefferson310.000
Tuli Tuipulotu301.000
Hassan Haskins110.000
Kendall Williamson110.000
Bud Dupree110.000

New England Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Drake Maye12/22117104-15.0
Jacoby Brissett1/2-2000-2.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Antonio Gibson12635.30-4.6
Drake Maye6325.30-3.6
Rhamondre Stevenson210.50-1.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Demario Douglas4546122%3.2
Kayshon Boutte4528022%0.4
Kendrick Bourne2422017%-1.7
Austin Hooper3319013%-1.9
Antonio Gibson01004%-0.7
Rhamondre Stevenson01004%-0.7
Javon Baker01004%-0.5
Ja'Lynn Polk01004%-1.1
Hunter Henry02009%-2.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jahlani Tavai550.000
Sione Takitaki260.000
Kyle Dugger530.000
Davon Godchaux260.000
Marte Mapu610.000
Jeremiah Pharms150.000
Jonathan Jones420.000
Daniel Ekuale140.000
Christian Elliss230.000
Isaiah Bolden210.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
LAC -6
Closing total
42
LAC moneyline
-305
NE moneyline
+245

Chargers closed -6 and covered, winning by 33.

Total closed 42; the game landed 47 — over by 5.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
40°F, wind 4 mph
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
LAC 9 days · NE 6 days
Coaches
Jim Harbaugh vs Jerod Mayo