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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:24 AM ET · 16 to play
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
MarketModelmodel higher on Saintshigher on Raiders169 of 180 plays carry both curves
(2:00) (Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell pass deep left to 16-J.Meyers to NO 33 for 29 yards (0-U.Amadi).
Swing −10.7 for SaintsExpected points −2.40 for SaintsThe model had Saints 14 points higher than the market did.play 66
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 2:00NO +11% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell pass deep left to 16-J.Meyers to NO 33 for 29 yards (0-U.Amadi).
2nd · 15:00NO +9% win prob(15:00) 18-S.Rattler pass deep right to 87-F.Moreau for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 3:46NO +9% win prob(3:46) (Shotgun) 8-A.Abdullah up the middle to LV 20 for 17 yards (5-W.Harris).
2nd · 13:20NO +9% win prob(13:20) 12-A.O'Connell pass deep right to 80-T.Marshall to NO 37 for 28 yards (1-A.Taylor).
2nd · 9:20NO +7% win prob(9:20) (Shotgun) 18-S.Rattler pass short middle to 83-J.Johnson to NO 47 for 25 yards (7-T.Moehrig).
4th · 11:30LV +7% win prob(11:30) (Shotgun) 18-S.Rattler pass short right intended for 11-C.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 18-J.Jones at NO 40. 18-J.Jones ran ob at NO 40 for no gain (11-C.Wilson).
3rd · 10:04
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jakobi Meyers's 3-yard touchdown catch with 1:01 left in the 2nd put Las Vegas Raiders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st5:53Daniel Carlson·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap J.Bobenmoyer+33–0
Raiders ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.10Raiders: +0.10 expected points added per play
−0.28Saints: −0.28 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.27Raiders: +0.27 expected points added per play
−0.30Saints: −0.30 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.06Raiders: −0.06 expected points added per play
−0.19Saints: −0.19 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Raiders ran 72 snaps at a 50% dropback rate against Saints’s 53 at 79%. Red-zone trips: Raiders 4, Saints 2.
NoteRaiders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.28.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
NO's early-down pass rate, 76.2%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 17 — 4.0 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 71.1% in week 7.
42 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.9 points.
LV's pass rate over expected turned over: +7.6 pts in week 16 against −6.6 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
72 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 16 pts
right on their number · −0.6 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−0.10× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Saints5.6%
inside their normal wobble · −6.5 vs their 12.0%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.92× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
NoteLV's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 42.6%, 20.2 points below their season mean of 62.8% and 1.9 times their own 10.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
58Jackson Powers-JohnsonG · Every snap100%77 snaps
74Kolton MillerT · Every snap100%77 snaps
—Delmar GlazeT · Every snap100%77 snaps
12Aidan O'ConnellQB · Every snap100%77 snaps
68Andre JamesC · Every snap100%77 snaps
66Dylan ParhamG · Full-time96%74 snaps
89Brock BowersTE · Full-time91%70 snaps
11Tre TuckerWR · Full-time90%69 snaps
16Jakobi MeyersWR · Full-time83%64 snaps
87Michael MayerTE · Heavy rotation75%58 snaps
8Ameer AbdullahRB · Heavy rotation62%48 snaps
80Terrace Marshall Jr.WR · Rotational36%28 snaps
22Alexander MattisonRB · Rotational31%24 snaps
84Harrison BryantTE · Situational12%9 snaps
—John Samuel ShenkerTE · Situational5%4 snaps
82Ramel KeytonWR · Situational4%3 snaps
33Chris CollierRB · Situational4%3 snaps
65Cody WhitehairG · Situational4%3 snaps
77Thayer Munford Jr.T · Situational4%3 snaps
88Justin ShorterTE · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 6
Darnay HolmesCBMatthew ButlerDTJordan MeredithGKana'i MaugaILBCarter BradleyQBChris Smith IISS
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Desmond RidderQBDJ GlazeTJohn ShenkerTE
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
66Shane LemieuxG · Every snap100%60 snaps
70Trevor PenningT · Every snap100%60 snaps
51Cesar RuizC · Every snap100%60 snaps
74Oli UdohT · Every snap100%60 snaps
75Taliese FuagaT · Every snap100%60 snaps
18Spencer RattlerQB · Every snap100%60 snaps
10Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Heavy rotation78%47 snaps
83Juwan JohnsonTE · Heavy rotation77%46 snaps
87Foster MoreauTE · Heavy rotation73%44 snaps
81Kevin Austin Jr.WR · Heavy rotation70%42 snaps
11Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR · Heavy rotation53%32 snaps
23Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB · Rotational43%26 snaps
21Jamaal WilliamsRB · Rotational42%25 snaps
17Dante PettisWR · Rotational27%16 snaps
25Kendre MillerRB · Situational13%8 snaps
46Adam PrenticeFB · Situational10%6 snaps
85Dallin HolkerTE · Situational8%5 snaps
67Landon YoungT · Situational5%3 snaps
Inactive · 7
John RidgewayDTKhristian BoydDTAnfernee OrjiILBDerek CarrQBAlvin KamaraRBJordan MimsRBMason TiptonWR
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Raiders←Saints→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.O'Connell pass+12% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(2:00) (Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell pass deep left to 16-J.Meyers to NO 33 for 29 yards (0-U.Amadi).
Q2 2:00 · Raiders · 3rd & 5 at LV 38 · gained 29 · +2.40 EP · +11.5% win probability
167 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 180 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 175. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was LV moving 97 yards from the LV 3 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, LV attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
180 of 180 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
180
EPA per play
-0.08
Success rate
40%
Yards
657
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR37-0.0149%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR26+0.3254%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR22-0.3377%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19-0.3384%
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.0150%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+1.0080%
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
180 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
180 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Raiders3Saints0
Field goal19 plays, from the Raiders 27 to the Saints 1
Punt7 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Raiders 38
Punt6 plays, from the Raiders 6 to the Raiders 15
The period ended3 plays, from midfield to the Raiders 46
2nd quarter47 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a trick play, play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw5.5 seconds
Raiders3Saints6
Raiders3Saints7
Touchdown2 plays
Raiders6Saints7
Field goal9 plays, from the Raiders 26 to the Saints 21
Punt12 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Raiders 40
How the play was built
A screen, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Raiders12Saints7
Raiders13Saints7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Raiders 5 to the Saints 3
Raiders13Saints10
Field goal10 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Raiders 16
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Saints 45
Raiders16Saints10
Field goal10 plays, from the Raiders 15 to the Saints 36
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Saints 38
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 24 to the Raiders 29
Punt4 plays
The period ended10 plays, from the Raiders 39 to the Saints 14
4th quarter57 plays
Raiders19Saints10
Field goal3 plays, from the Saints 10 to the Saints 7
Intercepted8 plays, from the Saints 30 to midfield
Raiders25Saints10
Touchdown7 plays, from the Saints 40 to the Saints 18
Punt5 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Raiders 33 to the Saints 48
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 10 to the Saints 14
The period ended7 plays, from the Saints 49 to the Saints 43
Intercepted13 plays, from the Saints 10 to the Raiders 20
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Raiders -2
Closing total
37.5
Raiders moneyline
-125
Saints moneyline
+105
Raiders closed -2 and covered, winning by 15.
Total closed 37.5; the game landed 35 — under by 2.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface
dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Land Clark
Rest
Raiders 7 days · Saints 6 days
Coaches
Antonio Pierce vs Dennis Allen
NO +6% win prob
(10:04) (Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell pass short middle to 16-J.Meyers to NO 42 for 19 yards (0-U.Amadi). Penalty on NO-0-U.Amadi, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
1st · 8:21NO +6% win prob(8:21) (Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell pass short left to 8-A.Abdullah for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell pass short left to 8-A.Abdullah to NO 1 for 12 yards (56-D.Davis).
